Metrics for linking emissions of gases and aerosols to global precipitation changes

Recent advances in understanding have made it possible to relate global precipitation changes directly to emissions of particular gases and aerosols that influence climate. Using these advances, new indices are developed here called the Global Precipitation-change Potential for pulse (GPP_P) and sustained (GPP_S) emissions, which measure the precipitation change per unit mass of emissions. The GPP can be used as a metric to compare the effects of different emissions. This is akin to the global warming potential (GWP) and the global temperature-change potential (GTP) which are used to place emissions on a common scale. Hence the GPP provides an additional perspective of the relative or absolute effects of emissions. It is however recognised that precipitation changes are predicted to be highly variable in size and sign between different regions and this limits the usefulness of a purely global metric. The GPP_P and GPP_S formulation consists of two terms, one dependent on the surface temperature change and the other dependent on the atmospheric component of the radiative forcing. For some forcing agents, and notably for CO2, these two terms oppose each other – as the forcing and temperature perturbations have different timescales, even the sign of the absolute GPP_P and GPP_S varies with time, and the opposing terms can make values sensitive to uncertainties in input parameters. This makes the choice of CO2 as a reference gas problematic, especially for the GPP_S at time horizons less than about 60 years. In addition, few studies have presented results for the surface/atmosphere partitioning of different forcings, leading to more uncertainty in quantifying the GPP than the GWP or GTP. Values of the GPP_P and GPP_S for five long- and short-lived forcing agents (CO2, CH4, N2O, sulphate and black carbon – BC) are presented, using illustrative values of required parameters. The resulting precipitation changes are given as the change at a specific time horizon (and hence they are end-point metrics) but it is noted that the GPPS can also be interpreted as the time-integrated effect of a pulse emission. Using CO2 as a references gas, the GPP_P and GPP_S for the non-CO2 species are larger than the corresponding GTP values. For BC emissions, the atmospheric forcing is sufficiently strong that the GPP_S is opposite in sign to the GTP_S. The sensitivity of these values to a number of input parameters is explored. The GPP can also be used to evaluate the contribution of different emissions to precipitation change during or after a period of emissions. As an illustration, the precipitation changes resulting from emissions in 2008 (using the GPP_P) and emissions sustained at 2008 levels (using the GPP_S) are presented. These indicate that for periods of 20 years (after the 2008 emissions) and 50 years (for sustained emissions at 2008 levels) methane is the dominant driver of positive precipitation changes due to those emissions. For sustained emissions, the sum of the effect of the five species included here does not become positive until after 50 years, by which time the global surface temperature increase exceeds 1 K.

Stalagmite water content as a proxy for drip water supply in tropical and subtropical areas

In this pilot study water was extracted from samples of two Holocene stalagmites from Socotra Island, Yemen, and one Eemian stalagmite from southern continental Yemen. The amount of water extracted per unit mass of stalagmite rock, termed "water yield" hereafter, serves as a measure of its total water content. Based on direct correlation plots of water yields and δ18Ocalcite and on regime shift analyses, we demonstrate that for the studied stalagmites the water yield records vary systematically with the corresponding oxygen isotopic compositions of the calcite (δ18Ocalcite). Within each stalagmite lower δ18Ocalcite values are accompanied by lower water yields and vice versa. The δ18Ocalcite records of the studied stalagmites have previously been interpreted to predominantly reflect the amount of rainfall in the area; thus, water yields can be linked to drip water supply. Higher, and therefore more continuous drip water supply caused by higher rainfall rates, supports homogeneous deposition of calcite with low porosity and therefore a small fraction of water-filled inclusions, resulting in low water yields of the respective samples. A reduction of drip water supply fosters irregular growth of calcite with higher porosity, leading to an increase of the fraction of water-filled inclusions and thus higher water yields. The results are consistent with the literature on stalagmite growth and supported by optical inspection of thin sections of our samples. We propose that for a stalagmite from a dry tropical or subtropical area, its water yield record represents a novel paleo-climate proxy recording changes in drip water supply, which can in turn be interpreted in terms of associated rainfall rates.