Genetic analysis of complex demographic scenarios: Spatially expanding populations of the cane toad, Bufo marinus

Inferring the spatial expansion dynamics of invading species from molecular data is notoriously difficult due to the complexity of the processes involved. For these demographic scenarios, genetic data obtained from highly variable markers may be profitably combined with specific sampling schemes and information from other sources using a Bayesian approach. The geographic range of the introduced toad Bufo marinus is still expanding in eastern and northern Australia, in each case from isolates established around 1960. A large amount of demographic and historical information is available on both expansion areas. In each area, samples were collected along a transect representing populations of different ages and genotyped at 10 microsatellite loci. Five demographic models of expansion, differing in the dispersal pattern for migrants and founders and in the number of founders, were considered. Because the demographic history is complex, we used an approximate Bayesian method, based on a rejection-regression algorithm. to formally test the relative likelihoods of the five models of expansion and to infer demographic parameters. A stepwise migration-foundation model with founder events was statistically better supported than other four models in both expansion areas. Posterior distributions supported different dynamics of expansion in the studied areas. Populations in the eastern expansion area have a lower stable effective population size and have been founded by a smaller number of individuals than those in the northern expansion area. Once demographically stabilized, populations exchange a substantial number of effective migrants per generation in both expansion areas, and such exchanges are larger in northern than in eastern Australia. The effective number of migrants appears to be considerably lower than that of founders in both expansion areas. We found our inferences to be relatively robust to various assumptions on marker. demographic, and historical features. The method presented here is the only robust, model-based method available so far, which allows inferring complex population dynamics over a short time scale. It also provides the basis for investigating the interplay between population dynamics, drift, and selection in invasive species.

The impact of fallowing and green manuring on soil conditions and the growth of sugarcane

There are currently concerns within some sugar industries that long-term monoculture has led to soil degradation and consequent yield decline. An investigation was conducted in Swaziland to assess the effects of fallowing and green manuring practices, over a seven-month period, on sugarcane yields and the physical properties of a poorly draining clay soil. In the subsequent first sugarcane crop after planting, yields were improved from 129 t ha(-1) under continuous sugarcane to 141-144 t ha(-1) after fallowing and green manuring, but there were no significant responses in the first and second ratoon crops. Also, in the first crop after planting, root length index increased from 3.5 km m(-2) under continuous sugarcane to 5.2-6.8 km m(-2) after fallowing, and improved rooting was still evident in the first ratoon crop where there had been soil drying during the fallow period. Soil bulk density, total porosity and water-holding capacity were not affected by the fallowing practices. However, air-filled porosity increased from 11% under continuous sugarcane to 16% after fallowing, and steady state ponded infiltration rates were increased from 0.61 mm h(-1) to 1.34 mm h(-1), but these improvements were no longer evident after a year back under sugarcane. Levels of soil organic matter were reduced in all cases, probably as a result of the tillage operations involved. In the plant crop, root length was well correlated with air-filled porosity, indicating the importance of improving belowground air supply for crop production on poorly draining clay soils.