Expression of metallothionein genes I and II in bank vole clethrionomys glareolus populations chronically exposed in situ to heavy metals

The expression of two metallothionein genes (Mt-I and Mt-II) in the liver, kidney, and gonad of bank voles collected at four metal-contaminated sites (Cd, Zn, Pb, and Fe) were measured using the quantitative real-time PCR method (QPCR). Relative Mt gene expression was calculated by applying a normalization factor (NF) using the expression of two housekeeping genes, ribosomal 18S and beta-actin. Relative Mt expression in tissues of animals from contaminated sites was up to 54.8-fold higher than those from the reference site for Mt-I and up to 91.6-fold higher for Mt-II. Mt-II gene expression in the livers of bank voles from contaminated sites was higher than Mt-I gene expression. Inversely, Mt-II expression in the kidneys of voles was lower than Mt-I expression. Positive correlations between cadmium levels in the tissues and Mt-I were obtained in all studied tissues. Zinc, which undergoes homeostatic regulation, correlated positively with both Mt-I and Mt-II gene expression only in the kidney. Results showed that animals living in chronically contaminated environments intensively activate detoxifying mechanisms such as metallothionein expression. This is the first time that QPCR techniques to measure MT gene expression have been applied to assess the impact of environmental metal pollution on field collected bank voles.

Metallothionein I and II gene expression as a response to metal contamination in bank vole Clethrionomys glareolus

The expression of two metallothionein genes (Mt-I and Mt-II) in the liver, kidney, and gonad of bank voles collected at four metal-contaminated sites (Cd, Zn, Pb, and Fe) were measured using the quantitative real-time PCR method (QPCR). Relative Mt gene expression was calculated by applying a normalization factor (NF) using the expression of two housekeeping genes, ribosomal 18S and beta-actin. Relative Mt expression in tissues of animals from contaminated sites was up to 54.8-fold higher than those from the reference site for Mt-I and up to 91.6-fold higher for Mt-II. Mt-II gene expression in the livers of bank voles from contaminated sites was higher than Mt-I gene expression. Inversely, Mt-II expression in the kidneys of voles was lower than Mt-I expression. Positive correlations between cadmium levels in the tissues and Mt-I were obtained in all studied tissues. Zinc, which undergoes homeostatic regulation, correlated positively with both Mt-I and Mt-II gene expression only in the kidney. Results showed that animals living in chronically contaminated environments intensively activate detoxifying mechanisms such as metallothionein expression. This is the first time that QPCR techniques to measure MT gene expression have been applied to assess the impact of environmental metal pollution on field collected bank voles.

How predation and landscape fragmentation affect vole population dynamics

Background: Microtine species in Fennoscandia display a distinct north-south gradient from regular cycles to stable populations. The gradient has often been attributed to changes in the interactions between microtines and their predators. Although the spatial structure of the environment is known to influence predator-prey dynamics of a wide range of species, it has scarcely been considered in relation to the Fennoscandian gradient. Furthermore, the length of microtine breeding season also displays a north-south gradient. However, little consideration has been given to its role in shaping or generating population cycles. Because these factors covary along the gradient it is difficult to distinguish their effects experimentally in the field. The distinction is here attempted using realistic agent-based modelling. Methodology/Principal Findings: By using a spatially explicit computer simulation model based on behavioural and ecological data from the field vole (Microtus agrestis), we generated a number of repeated time series of vole densities whose mean population size and amplitude were measured. Subsequently, these time series were subjected to statistical autoregressive modelling, to investigate the effects on vole population dynamics of making predators more specialised, of altering the breeding season, and increasing the level of habitat fragmentation. We found that fragmentation as well as the presence of specialist predators are necessary for the occurrence of population cycles. Habitat fragmentation and predator assembly jointly determined cycle length and amplitude. Length of vole breeding season had little impact on the oscillations. Significance: There is good agreement between our results and the experimental work from Fennoscandia, but our results allow distinction of causation that is hard to unravel in field experiments. We hope our results will help understand the reasons for cycle gradients observed in other areas. Our results clearly demonstrate the importance of landscape fragmentation for population cycling and we recommend that the degree of fragmentation be more fully considered in future analyses of vole dynamics.

Landscape structure mediates the effects of a stressor on field vole populations

Spatio-temporal landscape heterogeneity has rarely been considered in population-level impact assessments. Here we test whether landscape heterogeneity is important by examining the case of a pesticide applied seasonally to orchards which may affect non-target vole populations, using a validated ecologically realistic and spatially explicit agent-based model. Voles thrive in unmanaged grasslands and untreated orchards but are particularly exposed to applied pesticide treatments during dispersal between optimal habitats. We therefore hypothesised that vole populations do better (1) in landscapes containing more grassland and (2) where areas of grassland are closer to orchards, but (3) do worse if larger areas of orchards are treated with pesticide. To test these hyposeses we made appropriate manipulations to a model landscape occupied by field voles. Pesticide application reduced model population sizes in all three experiments, but populations subsequently wholly or partly recovered. Population depressions were, as predicted, lower in landscapes containing more unmanaged grassland, in landscapes with reduced distance between grassland and orchards, and in landscapes with fewer treated orchards. Population recovery followed a similar pattern except for an unexpected improvement in recovery when the area of treated orchards was increased. Outside the period of pesticide application, orchards increase landscape connectivity and facilitate vole dispersal and so speed population recovery. Overall our results show that accurate prediction of population impact cannot be achieved without taking account of landscape structure. The specifics of landscape structure and habitat connectivity are likely always important in mediating the effects of stressors.

The effects of spatial and temporal heterogeneity on the population dynamics of four animal species in a Danish landscape

Background: Variation in carrying capacity and population return rates is generally ignored in traditional studies of population dynamics. Variation is hard to study in the field because of difficulties controlling the environment in order to obtain statistical replicates, and because of the scale and expense of experimenting on populations. There may also be ethical issues. To circumvent these problems we used detailed simulations of the simultaneous behaviours of interacting animals in an accurate facsimile of a real Danish landscape. The models incorporate as much as possible of the behaviour and ecology of skylarks Alauda arvensis, voles Microtus agrestis, a ground beetle Bembidion lampros and a linyphiid spider Erigone atra. This allows us to quantify and evaluate the importance of spatial and temporal heterogeneity on the population dynamics of the four species. Results: Both spatial and temporal heterogeneity affected the relationship between population growth rate and population density in all four species. Spatial heterogeneity accounted for 23–30% of the variance in population growth rate after accounting for the effects of density, reflecting big differences in local carrying capacity associated with the landscape features important to individual species. Temporal heterogeneity accounted for 3–13% of the variance in vole, skylark and spider, but 43% in beetles. The associated temporal variation in carrying capacity would be problematic in traditional analyses of density dependence. Return rates were less than one in all species and essentially invariant in skylarks, spiders and beetles. Return rates varied over the landscape in voles, being slower where there were larger fluctuations in local population sizes. Conclusion: Our analyses estimated the traditional parameters of carrying capacities and return rates, but these are now seen as varying continuously over the landscape depending on habitat quality and the mechanisms of density dependence. The importance of our results lies in our demonstration that the effects of spatial and temporal heterogeneity must be accounted for if we are to have accurate predictive models for use in management and conservation. This is an area which until now has lacked an adequate theoretical framework and methodology.

Bayesian estimation of recent migration rates after a spatial expansion

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a highly flexible technique that allows the estimation of parameters under demographic models that are too complex to be handled by full-likelihood methods. We assess the utility of this method to estimate the parameters of range expansion in a two-dimensional stepping-stone model, using samples from either a single deme or multiple demes. A minor modification to the ABC procedure is introduced, which leads to an improvement in the accuracy of estimation. The method is then used to estimate the expansion time and migration rates for five natural common vole populations in Switzerland typed for a sex-linked marker and a nuclear marker. Estimates based on both markers suggest that expansion occurred < 10,000 years ago, after the most recent glaciation, and that migration rates are strongly male biased.

Identification of Bartonella species in rodents, shrews and cats in Denmark: detection of two B-henselae variants, one in cats and the other in the long-tailed field mouse

Small mammals and stray cats were trapped in two areas of North Zealand, Denmark, and their blood cultured for hemotrophic bacteria. Bacterial isolates were recovered in pure culture and subjected to 16S rDNA gene sequencing. Bartonella species were isolated from five mammalian species: B. grahamii from Microtus agrestis (field vole) and Apodemus flavicollis (yellow-necked field mouse); B. taylorii from M. agrestis, A. flavicollis and A. sylvaticus (long-tailed field mouse); B. tribocorum from A. flavicollis; R vinsonii subsp. vinsonii from M. agrestis and A. sylvaticus; and B. birtlesii from Sorex vulgaris (common shrew). In addition, two variant types of B. henselae were identified: variant I was recovered from three specimens of A. sylvaticus, and B. henselae variant 11 from I I cats; in each case this was the only B. henselae variant found. No Bartonella species was isolated from Clethrionomys glareolus (bank vole) or Micromys minutus (harvest mouse). These results suggest that B. henselae occurs in two animal reservoirs in this region, one of variant I in A. sylvaticus, which may be transmitted between mice by the tick Ixodes ricinus, and another of variant 11 in cats, which may be transmitted by the cat flea (Ctenocephalides felis). To our knowledge, this is the first report of the occurrence of B. henselae and B. tribocorum in Apodemus mice.

The effects of landscape modifications on the long-term persistence of animal populations

Background: The effects of landscape modifications on the long-term persistence of wild animal populations is of crucial importance to wildlife managers and conservation biologists, but obtaining experimental evidence using real landscapes is usually impossible. To circumvent this problem we used individual-based models (IBMs) of interacting animals in experimental modifications of a real Danish landscape. The models incorporate as much as possible of the behaviour and ecology of four species with contrasting life-history characteristics: skylark (Alauda arvensis), vole (Microtus agrestis), a ground beetle (Bembidion lampros) and a linyphiid spider (Erigone atra). This allows us to quantify the population implications of experimental modifications of landscape configuration and composition. Methodology/Principal Findings: Starting with a real agricultural landscape, we progressively reduced landscape complexity by (i) homogenizing habitat patch shapes, (ii) randomizing the locations of the patches, and (iii) randomizing the size of the patches. The first two steps increased landscape fragmentation. We assessed the effects of these manipulations on the long-term persistence of animal populations by measuring equilibrium population sizes and time to recovery after disturbance. Patch rearrangement and the presence of corridors had a large effect on the population dynamics of species whose local success depends on the surrounding terrain. Landscape modifications that reduced population sizes increased recovery times in the short-dispersing species, making small populations vulnerable to increasing disturbance. The species that were most strongly affected by large disturbances fluctuated little in population sizes in years when no perturbations took place. Significance: Traditional approaches to the management and conservation of populations use either classical methods of population analysis, which fail to adequately account for the spatial configurations of landscapes, or landscape ecology, which accounts for landscape structure but has difficulty predicting the dynamics of populations living in them. Here we show how realistic and replicable individual-based models can bridge the gap between non-spatial population theory and non-dynamic landscape ecology. A major strength of the approach is its ability to identify population vulnerabilities not detected by standard population viability analyses.

Forecasters priorities for improving probabilistic flood forecasts.

Hydrological ensemble prediction systems (HEPS) have in recent years been increasingly used for the operational forecasting of floods by European hydrometeorological agencies. The most obvious advantage of HEPS is that more of the uncertainty in the modelling system can be assessed. In addition, ensemble prediction systems generally have better skill than deterministic systems both in the terms of the mean forecast performance and the potential forecasting of extreme events. Research efforts have so far mostly been devoted to the improvement of the physical and technical aspects of the model systems, such as increased resolution in time and space and better description of physical processes. Developments like these are certainly needed; however, in this paper we argue that there are other areas of HEPS that need urgent attention. This was also the result from a group exercise and a survey conducted to operational forecasters within the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) to identify the top priorities of improvement regarding their own system. They turned out to span a range of areas, the most popular being to include verification of an assessment of past forecast performance, a multi-model approach for hydrological modelling, to increase the forecast skill on the medium range (>3 days) and more focus on education and training on the interpretation of forecasts. In light of limited resources, we suggest a simple model to classify the identified priorities in terms of their cost and complexity to decide in which order to tackle them. This model is then used to create an action plan of short-, medium- and long-term research priorities with the ultimate goal of an optimal improvement of EFAS in particular and to spur the development of operational HEPS in general.