The spatial distribution and evolution characteristics of North Atlantic cyclones

A climatology of extratropical cyclones is produced using an objective method of identifying cyclones based on gradients of 1-km height wet-bulb potential temperature. Cyclone track and genesis density statistics are analyzed and this method is found to compare well with other cyclone identification methods. The North Atlantic storm track is reproduced along with the major regions of genesis. Cyclones are grouped according to their genesis location and the corresponding lysis regions are identified. Most of the cyclones that cross western Europe originate in the east Atlantic where the baroclinicity and the sea surface temperature gradients are weak compared to the west Atlantic. East Atlantic cyclones also have higher 1-km height relative vorticity and lower mean sea level pressure at their genesis point than west Atlantic cyclones. This is consistent with the hypothesis that they are secondary cyclones developing on the trailing fronts of preexisting “parent” cyclones. The evolution characteristics of composite west and east Atlantic cyclones have been compared. The ratio of their upper- to lower-level forcing indicates that type B cyclones are predominant in both the west and east Atlantic, with strong upper- and lower-level features. Among the remaining cyclones, there is a higher proportion of type C cyclones in the east Atlantic, whereas types A and C are equally frequent in the west Atlantic.

A model for the evolution of pathogen-induced leaf shedding

A size-structured plant population model is developed to study the evolution of pathogen-induced leaf shedding under various environmental conditions. The evolutionary stable strategy (ESS) of the leaf shedding rate is determined for two scenarios: i) a constant leaf shedding strategy and ii) an infection load driven leaf shedding strategy. The model predicts that ESS leaf shedding rates increase with nutrient availability. No effect of plant density on the ESS leaf shedding rate is found even though disease severity increases with plant density. When auto-infection, that is increased infection due to spores produced on the plant itself, plays a key role in further disease increase on the plant, shedding leaves removes disease that would otherwise contribute to disease increase on the plant itself. Consequently leaf shedding responses to infections may evolve. When external infection, that is infection due to immigrant spores, is the key determinant, shedding a leaf does not reduce the force of infection on the leaf shedding plant. In this case leaf shedding will not evolve. Under a low external disease pressure adopting an infection driven leaf shedding strategy is more efficient than adopting a constant leaf shedding strategy, since a plant adopting an infection driven leaf shedding strategy does not shed any leaves in the absence of infection, even when leaf shedding rates are high. A plant adopting a constant leaf shedding rate sheds the same amount of leaves regardless of the presence of infection. Based on the results we develop two hypotheses that can be tested if the appropriate plant material is available.

A model for the evolution of pathogen-induced leaf shedding

A size-structured plant population model is developed to study the evolution of pathogen-induced leaf shedding under various environmental conditions. The evolutionary stable strategy (ESS) of the leaf shedding rate is determined for two scenarios: i) a constant leaf shedding strategy and ii) an infection load driven leaf shedding strategy. The model predicts that ESS leaf shedding rates increase with nutrient availability. No effect of plant density on the ESS leaf shedding rate is found even though disease severity increases with plant density. When auto-infection, that is increased infection due to spores produced on the plant itself, plays a key role in further disease increase on the plant, shedding leaves removes disease that would otherwise contribute to disease increase on the plant itself. Consequently leaf shedding responses to infections may evolve. When external infection, that is infection due to immigrant spores, is the key determinant, shedding a leaf does not reduce the force of infection on the leaf shedding plant. In this case leaf shedding will not evolve. Under a low external disease pressure adopting an infection driven leaf shedding strategy is more efficient than adopting a constant leaf shedding strategy, since a plant adopting an infection driven leaf shedding strategy does not shed any leaves in the absence of infection, even when leaf shedding rates are high. A plant adopting a constant leaf shedding rate sheds the same amount of leaves regardless of the presence of infection. Based on the results we develop two hypotheses that can be tested if the appropriate plant material is available.

Activation of lower back muscles via FES for pressure sores prevention in paraplegia: a case study

The aim of this paper is to show the feasibility of the use of functional electrical stimulation (FES) applied to the lower back muscles for pressure sores prevention in paraplegia. The hypothesis under study is that FES induces a change in the pressure distribution on the contact area during sitting. Tests were conducted on a paraplegic subject (T5), sitting on a standard wheelchair and cushion. Trunk extensors (mainly the erector spinae) were stimulated using surface electrodes placed on the skin. A pressure mapping system was used to measure the pressure on the sitting surface in four situations: (a) no stimulation; (b) stimulation on one side of the spine only; (c) stimulation on both sides, at different levels; and (d) stimulation at the same level on both sides, during pressure-relief manoeuvres. A session of prolonged stimulation was also conducted. The experimental results show that the stimulation of the erector spinae on one side of the spine can induce a trunk rotation on the sagittal plane, which causes a change in the pressure distribution. A decrease of pressure on the side opposite to the stimulation was recorded. The phenomenon is intensified when different levels of stimulation are applied to the two sides, and such change can be sustained for a considerable time (around 5 minutes). The stimulation did not induce changes during pressure-relief manoeuvres. Finally, from this research we can conclude that the stimulation of the trunk extensors can be a useful tool for pressure sores prevention, and can potentially be used in a routine for pressure sores prevention based on periodical weight shifts.

The European storm Kyrill in January 2007: synoptic evolution, meteorological impacts and some considerations with respect to climate change

The synoptic evolution and some meteorological impacts of the European winter storm Kyrill that swept across Western, Central, and Eastern Europe between 17 and 19 January 2007 are investigated. The intensity and large storm damage associated with Kyrill is explained based on synoptic and mesoscale environmental storm features, as well as on comparisons to previous storms. Kyrill appeared on weather maps over the US state of Arkansas about four days before it hit Europe. It underwent an explosive intensification over the Western North Atlantic Ocean while crossing a very intense zonal polar jet stream. A superposition of several favourable meteorological conditions west of the British Isles caused a further deepening of the storm when it started to affect Western Europe. Evidence is provided that a favourable alignment of three polar jet streaks and a dry air intrusion over the occlusion and cold fronts were causal factors in maintaining Kyrill's low pressure very far into Eastern Europe. Kyrill, like many other strong European winter storms, was embedded in a pre-existing, anomalously wide, north-south mean sea-level pressure (MSLP) gradient field. In addition to the range of gusts that might be expected from the synoptic-scale pressure field, mesoscale features associated with convective overturning at the cold front are suggested as the likely causes for the extremely damaging peak gusts observed at many lowland stations during the passage of Kyrill's cold front. Compared to other storms, Kyrill was by far not the most intense system in terms of core pressure and circulation anomaly. However, the system moved into a pre-existing strong MSLP gradient located over Central Europe which extended into Eastern Europe. This fact is considered determinant for the anomalously large area affected by Kyrill. Additionally, considerations of windiness in climate change simulations using two state-of-the-art regional climate models driven by ECHAM5 indicate that not only Central, but also Eastern Central Europe may be affected by higher surface wind speeds at the end of the 21st century. These changes are partially associated with the increased pressure gradient over Europe which is identified in the ECHAM5 simulations. Thus, with respect to the area affected, as well as to the synoptic and mesoscale storm features, it is proposed that Kyrill may serve as an interesting study case to assess future storm impacts.

The importance of surface pressure changes in the response of the atmosphere to zonally-symmetric thermal and mechanical forcing

he classical problem of the response of a balanced, axisymmetric vortex to thermal and mechanical forcing is re-examined, paying special attention to the lower boundary condition. The correct condition is DΦ/Dt = 0, where Φ is the geopotential and D/Dt the material derivative, which explicitly accounts for a mass redistribution as part of the mean-flow response. This redistribution is neglected when using the boundary condition Dp/Dt = 0, which has conventionally been applied in this problem. It is shown that applying the incorrect boundary condition, and thereby ignoring the surface pressure change, leads to a zonal wind acceleration δū/δt that is too strong, especially near the surface. The effect is significant for planetary-scale forcing even when applied at tropopause level. A comparison is made between the mean-flow evolution in a baroclinic life-cycle, as simulated in a fully nonlinear, primitive-equation model, and that predicted by using the simulated eddy fluxes in the zonally-symmetric response problem. Use of the correct lower boundary condition is shown to lead to improved agreement.

On the cause of a magnetospheric flux transfer event

We present a detailed investigation of a magnetospheric flux transfer event (FTE) seen by the Active Magnetospheric Tracer Explorer (AMPTE) UKS and IRM satellites around 1046 UT on October 28, 1984. This event has been discussed many times previously in the literature and has been cited as support for a variety of theories of FTE formation. We make use of a model developed to reproduce ion precipitations seen in the cusp ionosphere. The analysis confirms that the FTE is well explained as a brief excursion into an open low-latitude boundary layer (LLBL), as predicted by two theories of magnetospheric FTEs: namely, that they are bulges in the open LLBL due to reconnection rate enhancements or that they are indentations of the magnetopause by magnetosheath pressure increases (but in the presence of ongoing steady reconnection). The indentation of the inner edge of the open LLBL that these two models seek to explain is found to be shallow for this event. The ion model reproduces the continuous evolution of the ion distribution function between the sheath-like population at the event center and the surrounding magnetospheric populations; it also provides an explanation of the high-pressure core of the event as comprising field lines that were reconnected considerably earlier than those that are draped over it to give the event boundary layer. The magnetopause transition parameter is used to isolate a field rotation on the boundaries of the core, which is subjected to the tangential stress balance test. The test identifies this to be a convecting structure, which is neither a rotational discontinuity (RD) nor a contact discontinuity, but could possibly be a slow shock. In addition, evidence for ion reflection off a weak RD on the magnetospheric side of this structure is found. The event structure is consistent in many ways with features predicted for the open LLBL by analytic MHD theories and by MHD and hybrid simulations. The de Hoffman-Teller velocity of the structure is significantly different from that of the magnetosheath flow, indicating that it is not an indentation caused by a high-pressure pulse in the sheath but is consistent with the motion of newly opened field lines (different from the sheath flow because of the magnetic tension force) deduced from the best fit to the ion data. However, we cannot here rule out the possibility that the sheath flow pattern has changed in the long interval between the two satellites observing the FTE and subsequently emerging into the magnetosheath; thus this test is not conclusive in this particular case. Analysis of the fitted elapsed time since reconnection shows that the core of the event was reconnected in one pulse and the event boundary layer was reconnected in a subsequent pulse. Between these two pulses is a period of very low (but nonzero) reconnection rate, which lasts about 14 mins. Thus the analysis supports, but does not definitively verify, the concept that the FTE is a partial passage into an open LLBL caused by a traveling bulge in that layer produced by a pulse in reconnection rate.