Tropical cyclones in a T159 Resolution Global Climate Model: comparison with observations and re-analyses

Tropical cyclones have been investigated in a T159 version of the MPI ECHAM5 climate model using a novel technique to diagnose the evolution of the 3-dimensional vorticity structure of tropical cyclones, including their full life cycle from weak initial vortex to their possible extra-tropical transition. Results have been compared with reanalyses (ERA40 and JRA25) and observed tropical storms during the period 1978-1999 for the Northern Hemisphere. There is no indication of any trend in the number or intensity of tropical storms during this period in ECHAM5 or in re-analyses but there are distinct inter-annual variations. The storms simulated by ECHAM5 are realistic both in space and time, but the model and even more so the re-analyses, underestimate the intensities of the most intense storms (in terms of their maximum wind speeds). There is an indication of a response to ENSO with a smaller number of Atlantic storms during El Niño in agreement with previous studies. The global divergence circulation responds to El Niño by setting up a large-scale convergence flow, with the center over the central Pacific with enhanced subsidence over the tropical Atlantic. At the same time there is an increase in the vertical wind shear in the region of the tropical Atlantic where tropical storms normally develop. There is a good correspondence between the model and ERA40 except that the divergence circulation is somewhat stronger in the model. The model underestimates storms in the Atlantic but tends to overestimate them in the Western Pacific and in the North Indian Ocean. It is suggested that the overestimation of storms in the Pacific by the model is related to an overly strong response to the tropical Pacific SST anomalies. The overestimation in 2 the North Indian Ocean is likely to be due to an over prediction in the intensity of monsoon depressions, which are then classified as intense tropical storms. Nevertheless, overall results are encouraging and will further contribute to increased confidence in simulating intense tropical storms with high-resolution climate models.

Land/sea warming ratio in response to climate change: IPCC AR4 model results and comparison with observations

Climate model simulations consistently show that in response to greenhouse gas forcing surface temperatures over land increase more rapidly than over sea. The enhanced warming over land is not simply a transient effect, since it is also present in equilibrium conditions. We examine 20 models from the IPCC AR4 database. The global land/sea warming ratio varies in the range 1.36–1.84, independent of global mean temperature change. In the presence of increasing radiative forcing, the warming ratio for a single model is fairly constant in time, implying that the land/sea temperature difference increases with time. The warming ratio varies with latitude, with a minimum in equatorial latitudes, and maxima in the subtropics. A simple explanation for these findings is provided, and comparisons are made with observations. For the low-latitude (40°S–40°N) mean, the models suggest a warming ratio of 1.51 ± 0.13, while recent observations suggest a ratio of 1.54 ± 0.09.

Factors affecting the adoption of leguminous cover crops in Nigeria and a comparison with the adoption of new crop varieties

This paper presents the results of (a) On-farm trials (eight) over a two-year period designed to test the effectiveness of leguminous cover crops in terms of increasing maize yields in Igalaland, Nigeria. (b) A survey designed to monitor the extent of, and reasons behind, adoption of the leguminous cover crop technology in subsequent years by farmers involved, to varying degrees, in the trial programme. particular emphasis was placed on comparing adoption of leguminous cover crops with that of new crop varieties released by a non-governmental organization in the same area since the mid 1980s. While the leguminous cover crop technology boosted maize grain yields by 127 to 136% above an untreated control yield of between 141 and 171 kg ha(-1), the adoption rate (number of farmers adopting) was only 18%. By way of contrast, new crop varieties had a highly variable benefit in terms of yield advantage over local varieties, with the best average increase of around 20%. Adoption rates for new crop varieties, assessed as both the number of farmers growing the varieties and the number of plots planted to the varieties, were 40% on average. The paper discusses some key factors influencing adoption of the leguminous cover crop technology, including seed availability. Implications of these results for a local non-governmental organization, the Diocesan Development Services, concerned with promoting the leguminous cover crop technology are also discussed.

Evaluation of ozone and water vapor fields from the ECMWF reanalysis ERA-40 during 1991-1999 in comparison with UARS satellite and MOZAIC aircraft observations

[ 1] The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 40-year Reanalysis (ERA-40) ozone and water vapor reanalysis fields during the 1990s have been compared with independent satellite data from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) and Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) instruments on board the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS). In addition, ERA-40 has been compared with aircraft data from the Measurements of Ozone and Water Vapour by Airbus In-Service Aircraft (MOZAIC) program. Overall, in comparison with the values derived from the independent observations, the upper stratosphere in ERA-40 has about 5 - 10% more ozone and 15 - 20% less water vapor. This dry bias in the reanalysis appears to be global and extends into the middle stratosphere down to 40 hPa. Most of the discrepancies and seasonal variations between ERA-40 and the independent observations occur within the upper troposphere over the tropics and the lower stratosphere over the high latitudes. ERA-40 reproduces a weaker Antarctic ozone hole, and of less vertical extent, than the independent observations; values in the ozone maximum in the tropical stratosphere are lower for the reanalysis. ERA-40 mixing ratios of water vapor are considerably larger than those for MOZAIC, typically by 20% in the tropical upper troposphere, and they may exceed 60% in the lower stratosphere over high latitudes. The results imply that the Brewer-Dobson circulation in the ECMWF reanalysis system is too fast, as is also evidenced by deficiencies in the way ERA-40 reproduces the water vapor "tape recorder'' signal in the tropical stratosphere. Finally, the paper examines the biases and their temporal variation during the 1990s in the way ERA-40 compares to the independent observations. We also discuss how the evaluation results depend on the instrument used, as well as on the version of the data.

Significant redox insensitivity of the functions of the SARS-CoV spike glycoprotein - Comparison with HIV envelope

The capacity of the surface glycoproteins of enveloped viruses to mediate virus/cell binding and membrane fusion requires a proper thiol/disulfide balance. Chemical manipulation of their redox state using reducing agents or free sulfhydryl reagents affects virus/cell interaction. Conversely, natural thiol/disulfide rearrangements often occur during the cell interaction to trigger fusogenicity, hence the virus entry. We examined the relationship between the redox state of the 20 cysteine residues of the SARS-CoV (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus) Spike glycoprotein S1 subdomain and its functional properties. Mature S1 exhibited similar to 4 unpaired cysteines, and chemically reduced S1 displaying up to similar to 6 additional unpaired cysteines still bound ACE2 and enabled fusion. In addition, virus/cell membrane fusion occurred in the presence of sulfhydryl-blocking reagents and oxidoreductase inhibitors. Thus, in contrast to various viruses including HIV (human immunodeficiency virus) examined in parallel, the functions of the SARS-CoV Spike glycoprotein exhibit a significant and surprising independence of redox state, which may contribute to the wide host range of the virus. These data suggest clues for molecularly engineering vaccine immunogens.

Theoretical and experimental investigation of wall confluent jets ventilation and comparison with wall displacement ventilation

This paper reports CFD and experimental results of the characteristics of wall confluent jets in a room. The results presented show the behaviour of wall confluent jets in the form of velocity profiles, the spreading rate of jets on the surface, jets decay, etc. The empirical equations derived are compared with other types of air jets. In addition, the flow in wall confluent jets is compared with the flow in displacement ventilation supply, with regards to the vertical and horizontal spreading on the floor. It is concluded that the jet momentum of wall confluent jets can be more conserved than other jets. Thus, wall confluent jets have a greater spread over the floor than displacement flow.

Is speeding a "real" antisocial behavior? A comparison with other antisocial behaviors

The relationship between speed and crashes has been well established in the literature, with the consequence that speed reduction through enforced or other means should lead to a reduction in crashes. The extent to which the public regard speeding as a problem that requires enforcement is less clear. Analysis was conducted on public perceptions of antisocial behaviors including speeding traffic. The data was collected as part of the British Crime Survey, a face-to-face interview with UK residents on issues relating to crime. The antisocial behavior section required participants to state the degree to which they perceived 16 antisocial behaviors to be a problem in their area. Results revealed that speeding traffic was perceived as the greatest problem in local communities, regardless of whether respondents were male or female, young, middle aged, or old. The rating of speeding traffic as the greatest problem in the community was replicated in a second, smaller postal survey, where respondents also provided strong support for enforcement on residential roads, and indicated that traveling immediately above the speed limit on residential roads was unacceptable. Results are discussed in relation to practical implications for speed enforcement, and the prioritization of limited police resources. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Threat interpretation in anxious children and their mothers: comparison with nonclinical children and the effects of treatment

Interpretation biases towards threat play a prominent role in cognitive theories of anxiety, and have been identified amongst highly anxious adults and children. Little is known, however, about the development of these cognitive biases although family processes have been implicated. The current study investigated the nature of threat interpretation of anxious children and their mothers through (i) comparison of a clinic and non-clinic population, (ii) analysis of individual differences; and (ill) pre- and post-treatment comparisons. Participants were 27 children with a primary anxiety disorder and 33 children from a non-clinic population and their mothers. Children and mothers completed self-report measures of anxiety and indicated their most likely interpretation of ambiguous scenarios. Clinic and non-clinical groups differed significantly on measures of threat interpretation. Furthermore, mothers' and children's threat interpretation correlated significantly. Following treatment for child anxiety, both children and their mothers reported a reduction in threat interpretation. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An introduction to radial basis functions for system identification: a comparison with other neural network methods

A look is taken at the use of radial basis functions (RBFs), for nonlinear system identification. RBFs are firstly considered in detail themselves and are subsequently compared with a multi-layered perceptron (MLP), in terms of performance and usage.

Urban tracer dispersion experiment in London (DAPPLE) 2003: field study and comparison with empirical prediction

The DAPPLE (Dispersion of Air Pollutants and their Penetration into the Local Environment) project seeks to characterise near-field urban atmospheric dispersion using a multidisciplinary approach. In this paper we report on the first tracer dispersion experiment carried out in May 2003. Results of concurrent meteorological measurements are presented. Variations of receptor tracer concentration with time are presented. Meteorological observations suggest that in-street channelling and flow-switching at intersections take place. A comparison between roof top and surface measurements suggest that rapid vertical mixing occurs, and a comparison between a simple dispersion model and maximum concentrations observed are presented

Unsaturated σ-hydrocarbyl transition-metal complexes. Part 2. Synthesis and reactions of vinylplatinum complexes and a comparison with analogous fluorovinyl and alkynyl complexes

Alkenyl (CHCH2 or CFCF2) or alkynyl (CCPh) derivatives of trimethyltin are shown to be superior to lithium or magnesium reagents for the synthesis of corresponding mono-organoplatinum(II) species by metathesis (L = SnMe3R +cis-[PtCl2L2]→trans-[PtRClL2]+ SnMe3Cl tertiary phosphine). The reactivity order for SnMe3R is R = CCPh > CFCF2 > CHCH2. This order is also found for oxidative addition of SnMe3R to Pt0 to give cis-[PtRL2(SnMe3)]. When the latter complex (R = CHCH2) reacts with X2 or MeX further oxidative addition occurs exclusively at the platinum centre. Aromatic isonitriles (R′NC)co-ordinate to the platinum and give insertion products trans-[Pt{C(CHCH2)= NR′}ClL2] on heating or carbene complexes with NBunH2. The alkynyl trans-[Pt(CCPh)ClL2] also forms 1 :1 adducts with R′NC and carbene complexes therefrom, but no insertion products. Spectroscopic data for the new complexes are presented.

The prediction of nutrients into estuaries and their subsequent behaviour: application to the Tamar and comparison with the Tweed, U.K.

Some of the techniques used to model nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) discharges from a terrestrial catchment to an estuary are discussed and applied to the River Tamar and Tamar Estuary system in Southwest England, U.K. Data are presented for dissolved inorganic nutrient concentrations in the Tamar Estuary and compared with those from the contrasting, low turbidity and rapidly flushed Tweed Estuary in Northeast England. In the Tamar catchment, simulations showed that effluent nitrate loads for typical freshwater flows contributed less than 1% of the total N load. The effect of effluent inputs on ammonium loads was more significant (∼10%). Cattle, sheep and permanent grassland dominated the N catchment export, with diffuse-source N export greatly dominating that due to point sources. Cattle, sheep, permanent grassland and cereal crops generated the greatest rates of diffuse-source P export. This reflected the higher rates of P fertiliser applications to arable land and the susceptibility of bare, arable land to P export in wetter winter months. N and P export to the Tamar Estuary from human sewage was insignificant. Non-conservative behaviour of phosphate was particularly marked in the Tamar Estuary. Silicate concentrations were slightly less than conservative levels, whereas nitrate was essentially conservative. The coastal sea acted as a sink for these terrestrially derived nutrients. A pronounced sag in dissolved oxygen that was associated with strong nitrite and ammonium peaks occurred in the turbidity maximum region of the Tamar Estuary. Nutrient behaviour within the Tweed was very different. The low turbidity and rapid flushing ensured that nutrients there were essentially conservative, so that flushing of nutrients to the coastal zone from the river occurred with little estuarine modification.