The seasonal forecast of electricity demand: A hierarchical Bayesian model with climatological weather generator

In this paper we focus on the one year ahead prediction of the electricity peak-demand daily trajectory during the winter season in Central England and Wales. We define a Bayesian hierarchical model for predicting the winter trajectories and present results based on the past observed weather. Thanks to the flexibility of the Bayesian approach, we are able to produce the marginal posterior distributions of all the predictands of interest. This is a fundamental progress with respect to the classical methods. The results are encouraging in both skill and representation of uncertainty. Further extensions are straightforward at least in principle. The main two of those consist in conditioning the weather generator model with respect to additional information like the knowledge of the first part of the winter and/or the seasonal weather forecast. Copyright (C) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The seasonal forecast of electricity demand: A hierarchical Bayesian model with climatological weather generator

In this paper we focus on the one year ahead prediction of the electricity peak-demand daily trajectory during the winter season in Central England and Wales. We define a Bayesian hierarchical model for predicting the winter trajectories and present results based on the past observed weather. Thanks to the flexibility of the Bayesian approach, we are able to produce the marginal posterior distributions of all the predictands of interest. This is a fundamental progress with respect to the classical methods. The results are encouraging in both skill and representation of uncertainty. Further extensions are straightforward at least in principle. The main two of those consist in conditioning the weather generator model with respect to additional information like the knowledge of the first part of the winter and/or the seasonal weather forecast. Copyright (C) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Reclassification of Bacteroides putredinis (Weinberg et al., 1937) in a New Genus Alistipes gen. nov., as Alistipes putredinis comb. nov., and description of Alistipes finegoldii sp nov., from human sources

During studies on the bacteriology of appendicitis in children, we often isolated from inflamed and non-inflamed tissue samples, an unusual bile-resistant pigment-producing strictly anaerobic gram-negative rod. Phenotypically this organism resembles members of Bacteroides fragilis group of species, as it is resistant to bile and exhibits a special-potency-disk pattern (resistance to vancomycin, kanamycin and colistin) typical for the B. fragilis group. However, the production of brown pigment on media containing haemolysed blood and a cellular fatty acid composition dominated by iso-C15:0, suggests that the organism most closely resembles species of the genus Porphyromonas. However, the unidentified organism differs from porphyromonads by being bile-resistant and by not producing butyrate as a metabolic end-product. Comparative 16S ribosomal RNA gene sequencing studies show the unidentified organism represents a distinct sub-line, associated with but distinct from, the miss-classified species Bacteroides putredinis. The clustering of the unidentified bacterium with Bacteroides putredinis was statistically significant, but they displayed >4% sequence divergence with each other. Chromosomal DNA-DNA pairing studies further confirmed the separateness of the unidentified bacterium and Bacteroides putredinis. Based on phenotypic and phylogenetic considerations, it is proposed that Bacteroides putredinis and the unidentified bacterium from human sources be classified in a new genus Alistipes, as Alistipes putredinis comb. nov. and Alistipes finegoldii sp. nov., respectively. The type strain of Alistipes finegoldii is CCUG 46020(T) (= AHN2437(T)).

Reduced-order modelling of a high-voltage oscillatory impulse generator

The design of high-voltage equipment encompasses the study of oscillatory surges caused by transients such as those produced by switching. By obtaining a model, the response of which reconstructs that observed in the actual system, simulation studies and critical tests can be carried out on the model rather than on the equipment itself. In this paper, methods for the construction of simplified models are described and it is shown how the use of a complex model does not necessarily result in superior response pattern reconstruction.

Multiple PID mapping using neural networks in a MIMO steam generator system

A neural network was used to map three PID operating regions for a two-input two-output steam generator system. The network was used in stand alone feedforward operation to control the whole operating range of the process, after being trained from the PID controllers corresponding to each control region. The network inputs are the plant error signals, their integral, their derivative and a 4-error delay train.

Lightly branched comb polyesters: application in fast drying solvent-borne coating formulations

Novel oxazoline-based comb-polymers possessing linoleyl or oleic side chains have been synthesized and used to produce low viscosity coatings. Inclusion of the polymers in model paint formulations results in coatings that exhibit faster drying times than commercially available alkyd resin formulations. The comb polymers were produced from diol substituted oxazoline monomers that were synthesized through a scalable, solvent free protocol and purified by simple recrystallisation. Co-polymerisation of the oxazolines with adipic acid at 160 °C in the bulk resulted in the targeted polyester comb type polymers. The polymers were soluble in a range of organic solvents and compatible with commercial alkyd resins. Model paint formulations containing up to 40 wt% of the linoleyl-based comb polymers exhibited a dramatic reduction in viscosity (from 35 to 13 Poise at 25 °C) with increasing quantities of polymer added. Dynamic mechanical analysis (DMA) studies revealed that the drying rate of the model paint formulations containing the comb polymers was enhanced when compared with that of commercial alkyd resins.