TIGGE: Comparison of the prediction of northern hemisphere extratropical cyclones by different ensemble prediction systems

The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) is a World Weather Research Programme project. One of its main objectives is to enhance collaboration on the development of ensemble prediction between operational centers and universities by increasing the availability of ensemble prediction system (EPS) data for research. This study analyzes the prediction of Northern Hemisphere extratropical cyclones by nine different EPSs archived as part of the TIGGE project for the 6-month time period of 1 February 2008–31 July 2008, which included a sample of 774 cyclones. An objective feature tracking method has been used to identify and track the cyclones along the forecast trajectories. Forecast verification statistics have then been produced [using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational analysis as the truth] for cyclone position, intensity, and propagation speed, showing large differences between the different EPSs. The results show that the ECMWF ensemble mean and control have the highest level of skill for all cyclone properties. The Japanese Meteorological Administration (JMA), the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), the Met Office (UKMO), and the Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC) have 1 day less skill for the position of cyclones throughout the forecast range. The relative performance of the different EPSs remains the same for cyclone intensity except for NCEP, which has larger errors than for position. NCEP, the Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos (CPTEC), and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) all have faster intensity error growth in the earlier part of the forecast. They are also very underdispersive and significantly underpredict intensities, perhaps due to the comparatively low spatial resolutions of these EPSs not being able to accurately model the tilted structure essential to cyclone growth and decay. There is very little difference between the levels of skill of the ensemble mean and control for cyclone position, but the ensemble mean provides an advantage over the control for all EPSs except CPTEC in cyclone intensity and there is an advantage for propagation speed for all EPSs. ECMWF and JMA have an excellent spread–skill relationship for cyclone position. The EPSs are all much more underdispersive for cyclone intensity and propagation speed than for position, with ECMWF and CMC performing best for intensity and CMC performing best for propagation speed. ECMWF is the only EPS to consistently overpredict cyclone intensity, although the bias is small. BoM, NCEP, UKMO, and CPTEC significantly underpredict intensity and, interestingly, all the EPSs underpredict the propagation speed, that is, the cyclones move too slowly on average in all EPSs.

A further study of the recovery and purification of surfactin from fermentation broth by membrane filtration

Surfactin is a bacterial lipopeptide produced by Bacillus subtilis and is a powerful surfactant, having also antiviral, antibacterial and antitumor properties. The recovery and purification of surfactin from complex fermentation broths is a major obstacle to its commercialization; therefore, a two-step membrane filtration process was developed using a lab scale tangential flow filtration (TFF) unit with 10 kDa MWCO regenerated cellulose (RC) and polyethersulfone (PES)membranes at three different transmembrane pressure (TMP) of 1.5 bar, 2.0 bar and 2.5 bar. Two modes of filtrations were studied, with and without cleaning of membranes prior to UF-2. In a first step of ultrafiltration (UF-1), surfactin was retained effectively by membranes at above its critical micelle concentration (CMC); subsequently in UF-2, the retentate micelles were disrupted by addition of 50% (v/v) methanol solution to allow recovery of surfactin in the permeate. Main protein contaminants were effectively retained by the membrane in UF-2. Flux of permeates, rejection coefficient (R) of surfactin and proteinwere measured during the filtrations. Overall the three different TMPs applied have no significant effect in the filtrations and PES is the more suitable membrane to selectively separate surfactin from fermentation broth, achieving high recovery and level of purity. In addition this two-step UF process is scalable for larger volume of samples without affecting the original functionality of surfactin, although membranes permeability can be affected due to exposure to methanolic solution used in UF-2.

Interactions of an anionic surfactant with poly(oxyalkylene) copolymers in aqueous solution

The interactions of sodium dodecyl sulfate (SDS) with poly(ethylene oxide)/poly(alkylene oxide) (E/A) block copolymers are explored in this study: With respect to the specific compositional characteristics of the copolymer, introduction of SDS can induce fundamentally different effects to the self-assembly behavior of E/A copolymer solutions. In the case of the E18B10-SDS system (E = poly(ethylene oxide) and B = poly(butylene oxide)) development of large surfactant-polymer aggregates was observed. In the case of B20E610-SDS, B12E227B12-SDS, E40B10E40-SDS, E19P43E19-SDS (P = poly(propylene oxide)), the formation of smaller particles compared to pure polymeric micelles points to micellar suppression induced by the ionic surfactant. This effect can be ascribed to a physical binding between the hydrophobic block of unassociated macromolecules and the non-polar tail of the surfactant. Analysis of critical micelle concentrations (cmc*) of polymer-surfactant aqueous solutions within the framework of regular solution theory for binary surfactants revealed negative deviations from ideal behavior for E40B10E40-SDS and E19P43E19-SDS, but positive deviations for E18B10-SDS. Ultrasonic studies performed for the E19P43E19-SDS system enabled the identification of three distinct regions, corresponding to three main steps of the complexation; SDS absorption to the hydrophobic backbone of polymer, development of polymer-surfactant complexes and gradual breakdown of the mixed aggregates. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Micellar and surface properties of a poly(methyl methacrylate)-block-poly(N-isopropylacrylamide) copolymer in aqueous solution

Critical micelle concentrations (cmc) of aqueous solutions of poly(methyl methacrylate)-block-poly(N-isopropylacrylamide) were determined at several temperatures by surface tensiometry. Below the lower critical solution temperature (LCST), the low Delta(mic) H-0 determined can be assigned to the PMMA block being tightly coiled in the dispersed molecular state, so that the unfavorable interactions of hydrophobic entities with water are minimized. Above the LCST the cmc value was found to increase; an anomalous behavior that can be directly related to the micelle-globule transition of the hydrophilic block. Interestingly, above the LCST the surface tension of relatively concentrated solutions was found to depend weakly on temperature not following the usual strong decrease with temperature expected for aqueous solutions. (C) 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Block copolymers of ethylene oxide and phenyl glycidyl ether: micellization, gelation, and drug solubilization

Three triblock copolymers of ethylene oxide and phenyl glycidyl ether, type E(m)G(n)E(m), where G = OCH2-CH(CH2OC6H5) and E = OCH2CH2, were synthesized and characterized by gel-permeation chromatography, matrix-assisted laser desorption ionization time-of-flight mass spectrometry, and NMR spectroscopy. Their association properties in aqueous solution were investigated by surface tensiometry and light scattering, yielding values of the critical micelle concentration (cmc), the hydrodynamic radius, and the association number. Gel boundaries in concentrated micellar solution were investigated by tube inversion, and for one copolymer, the temperature and frequency dependence of the dynamic moduli served to confirm and extend the phase diagram and to highlight gel properties. Small-angle X-ray scattering was used to investigate gel structure. The overall aim of the work was to define a block copolymer micellar system with better solubilization capacity for poorly soluble aromatic drugs than had been achieved so far by use of block copoly(oxyalkylene)s. Judged by the solubilization of griseofulvin in aqueous solutions of the E(m)G(n)E(m) copolymers, this aim was achieved.

The effect of vessel diameter on time dependent gas hold-up variations in highly viscous impeller agitated liquids

Time dependent gas hold-up generated in the 0.3 and 0.6 m diameter vessels using high viscosity castor oil and carboxy methyl cellulose (CMC) solution was compared on the basis of impeller speed (N) and gas velocity (V-G). Two types of hold-up were distinguished-the hold-up due to tiny bubbles (epsilon(ft)) and total hold-up (epsilon(f)), which included large and tiny bubbles. It was noted that vessel diameter (i.e. the scale of operation) significantly influences (i) the trends and the values of epsilon(f) and epsilon(ft), and (ii) the values of tau (a constant reflecting the time dependency of hold-up). The results showed that a scale independent correlation for gas hold-up of the form epsilon(f) or epsilon(ft) = A(N or P-G/V)(a) (V-G)(b), where "a" and "b" are positive constants is not appropriate for viscous liquids. This warrants further investigations into the effect of vessel diameter on gas hold-up in impeller agitated high viscosity liquids (mu or mu(a) > 0.4 Pa s). (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Recovery and purification of surfactin from fermentation broth by a two-step ultrafiltration process

Surfactin is a bacterial lipopeptide produced by Bacillus subtilis and it is a powerful surfactant, having also antiviral, antibacterial and antitumor properties. The recovery and purification of surfactin from complex fermentation broths is a major obstacle to its commercialization; therefore, two-step membrane filtration processes were evaluated using centrifugal and stirred cell devices while the mechanisms of separation were investigated by particle size and surface charge measurements. In a first step of ultrafiltration (UF-1), surfactin was retained effectively by membranes at above its critical micelle concentration (CMC); subsequently in UF-2, the retentate micelles were disrupted by addition of 50% (v/v) methanol solution to allow recovery of surfactin in the permeate. Main protein contaminants were effective]), retained by the membrane in UF-2. Ultrafiltration was carried out either using centrifugal devices with 30 and 10 kDa MWCO regenerated cellulose membranes, or a stirred cell device with 10 kDa MWCO polyethersulfone (PES) and regenerated cellulose (RC) membranes. Total rejection of surfactin was consistently observed in UF-1, while in UF-2 PES membranes had the lowest rejection coefficient of 0.08 +/- 0.04. It was found that disruption of surfactin micelles, aggregation of protein contaminants and electrostatic interactions in UF-2 can further improve the selectivity of the membrane based purification technique. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The gut microbiota and lipid metabolism: implications for human health and coronary heart disease

Coronary heart disease (CHD) is the leading cause of mortality in Western societies, affecting about one third of the population before their seventieth year. Over the past decades modifiable risk factors of CHD have been identified, including smoking and diet. These factors when altered can have a significant impact on an individuals' risk of developing CHD, their overall health and quality of life. There is strong evidence suggesting that dietary intake of plant foods rich in fibre and polyphenolic compounds, effectively lowers the risk of developing CHD. However, the efficacy of these foods often appears to be greater than the sum of their recognised biologically active parts. Here we discuss the hypothesis that beneficial metabolic and vascular effects of dietary fibre and plant polyphenols are due to an up regulation of the colon-systemic metabolic axis by these compounds. Fibres and many polyphenols are converted into biologically active compounds by the colonic microbiota. This microbiota imparts great metabolic versatility and dynamism, with many of their reductive or hydrolytic activities appearing complementary to oxidative or conjugative human metabolism. Understanding these microbial activities is central to determining the role of different dietary components in preventing or beneficially impacting on the impaired lipid metabolism and vascular dysfunction that typifies CHD and type 11 diabetes. This approach lays the foundation for rational selection of health promoting foods, rational target driven design of functional foods, and provides an essential thus-far, overlooked, dynamic to our understanding of how foods recognised as "healthy" impact on the human metabonome.

Effects of hydrocolloid addition and high pressure processing on the rheological properties and microstructure of a commercial ostrich meat product "Yor" (Thai sausage)

"Yor" is a traditional sausage like product widely consumed in Thailand. Its textures are usually set by steaming, in this experiment ultra-high pressure was used to modify the product. Three types of hydrocolloid; carboxymethylcellulose (CMC), locust bean gum (LBG) and xanthan gum, were added to minced ostrich meat batter at concentration of 0-1% and subjected to high pressure 600 Mpa, 50 degrees C, 40 min. The treated samples were analysed for storage (G) and loss (G '') moduli by dynamic oscillatory testing as well as creep compliance for control stress measurement. Their microstructures using confocal microscopy were also examined. Hydrocolloid addition caused a significant (P < 0.05) decrease in both the G' and G '' moduli. However the loss tangent of all samples remained unchanged. Addition of hydrocolloids led to decreases in the gel network formation but appears to function as surfactant materials during the initial mixing stage as shown by the microstructure. Confocal microscopy suggested that the size of the fat droplets decreased with gum addition. The fat droplets were smallest on the addition of xanthan gum and increased in the order CMC, LBG and no added gum, respectively. Creep parameters of ostrich yors with four levels of xanthan gum addition (0.50%, 0.75%, 1.00% and 1.25%) showed an increase in the instantaneous compliance (J(0)), the retarded compliance (J(1)) and retardation time (lambda(1)) but a decrease in the viscosity (eta(0)) with increasing levels of addition. The results also suggested that the larger deformations used during creep testing might be more helpful in assessing the mechanical properties of the product than the small deformations used in oscillatory rheology. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Computer-mediated communication in distance MA programmes: the student's perspective

This paper reports on a study of computer-mediated communication within the context of a distance MA in TEFL programme which used an e-mail discussion list and then a discussion board. The study focused on the computer/Internet access and skills of the target population and their CMC needs and wants. Data were collected from 63 questionnaires and 6 in-depth interviews with students. Findings indicate that computer use and access to the Internet are widespread within the target population. In addition, most respondents indicated some competence in Internet use. No single factor emerged as an overriding inhibiting factor for lack of personal use. There was limited use of the CMC tools provided on the course for student–student interaction, mainly attributable to time constraints. However, most respondents said that they would like more CMC interaction with tutors. The main factor which would contribute to greater Internet use was training. The paper concludes with recommendations and suggestions for learner training in this area.

Surface activity of surfactin recovered and purified from fermentation broth using a two-step ultrafiltration (UF) process

B. subtilis under certain types of media and fermentation conditions can produce surfactin, a biosurfactant which belongs to the lipopeptide class. Surfactin has exceptional surfactant activity, and exhibits some interesting biological characteristics such as antibacterial activity, antitumoral activity against ascites carcinoma cells, and a hypocholesterolemic activity that inhibits cAMP phosphodiesterase, as well as having anti-HIV properties. A cost effective recovery and purification of surfactin from fermentation broth using a two-step ultrafiltration (UF) process has been developed in order to reduce the cost of surfactin production. In this study, competitive adsorption of surfactin and proteins at the air-water interface was studied using surface pressure measurements. Small volumes of bovine serum albumin (BSA) and β-casein solutions were added to the air-water interface on a Langmuir trough and allowed to stabilise before the addition of surfactin to the subphase. Contrasting interfacial behaviour of proteins was observed with β-casein showing faster initial adsorption compared to BSA. On introduction of surfactin both proteins were displaced but a longer time were taken to displace β-casein. Overall the results showed surfactin were highly surface-active by forming a β-sheet structure at the air-water interface after reaching its critical micelle concentration (CMC) and were effective in removing both protein films, which can be explained following the orogenic mechanism. Results showed that the two-step UF process was effective to achieve high purity and fully functional surfactin.

Separation of astaxanthin from cells of Phaffia rhodozyma using colloidal gas aphrons (CGA) in a flotation column

The aim of this study is to investigate the separation of astaxanthin from the cells of Phaffia rhodozyma using colloidal gas aphrons (CGA), which are surfactant stabilized microbubbles, in a flotation column. It was reported in previous studies that optimum recoveries are achieved at conditions that favor electrostatic interactions. Therefore, in this study, CGA generated from the cationic surfactant hexadecyl trimethyl ammonium bromide (CTAB) were applied to suspensions of cells pretreated with NaOH. The different operation modes (batch or continuous) and the effect of volumetric ratio of CGA to feed, initial concentration of feed, operating height, and flow rate of CGA on the separation of astaxanthin were investigated. The volumetric ratio was found to have a significant effect on the separation of astaxanthin for both batch and continuous experiments. Additionally, the effect of homogenization of the cells on the purity of the recovered fractions was investigated, showing that the homogenization resulted in increased purity. Moreover, different concentrations of surfactant were used for the generation of CGA for the recovery of astaxanthin on batch mode; it was found that recoveries up to 98% could be achieved using CGA generated from a CTAB solution 0.8 mM, which is below the CTAB critical micellar concentration (CMC). These results offer important information for the scale-up of the separation of astaxanthin from the cells of P. rhodozyma using CGA.

Coupling ensemble weather predictions based on TIGGE database with Grid-Xinanjiang model for flood forecast

The incorporation of numerical weather predictions (NWP) into a flood forecasting system can increase forecast lead times from a few hours to a few days. A single NWP forecast from a single forecast centre, however, is insufficient as it involves considerable non-predictable uncertainties and lead to a high number of false alarms. The availability of global ensemble numerical weather prediction systems through the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble' (TIGGE) offers a new opportunity for flood forecast. The Grid-Xinanjiang distributed hydrological model, which is based on the Xinanjiang model theory and the topographical information of each grid cell extracted from the Digital Elevation Model (DEM), is coupled with ensemble weather predictions based on the TIGGE database (CMC, CMA, ECWMF, UKMO, NCEP) for flood forecast. This paper presents a case study using the coupled flood forecasting model on the Xixian catchment (a drainage area of 8826 km2) located in Henan province, China. A probabilistic discharge is provided as the end product of flood forecast. Results show that the association of the Grid-Xinanjiang model and the TIGGE database gives a promising tool for an early warning of flood events several days ahead.

Projecting social and discursive identities through code-switching on facebook: the case of Greek Cypriots

Two varieties of Greek are spoken on the island of Cyprus: the local dialect, namely the Greek-Cypriot Dialect (GCD), and Standard Modern Greek (SMG). English is also influential, as Cyprus was an English colony until 1960. The dialect is rarely employed for everyday written purposes; however, it is now evident in computer-mediated communication (CMC). As a contribution to the field of code-switching in writing, this study examines how Greek-Cypriot internet users employ GCD, SMG, and English in their Facebook interactions. In particular, we investigate how identities (discursive and social) are performed and indexed through the linguistic choices of Greek-Cypriot internet users. The findings indicate that switches to GCD add a humorous tone and express solidarity and informality. SMG is mostly used for ‘official’ statements, and it is preferred by mature internet users, while English is used with expressions of affect and evaluative comments.

Written Cypriot Greek in online chat: Usage and attitudes

This paper investigates the attitudes of Greek-Cypriot internet users towards written Cypriot Greek (CG) in online chat. CG does not have a standard official orthography and it is only used in informal oral communication. With the emergence of computer-mediated communication (CMC), a novel Romanized form of CG is used instead of Standard Greek (SG) in online environments (Themistocleous 2005). To investigate language attitudes, an online questionnaire was distributed electronically to Greek-Cypriot internet users. The results show that the majority of the informants have positive attitudes towards written CG, a practice that goes against the results of previous attitudinal surveys. In this paper, I demonstrate how the internet can influence and change the attitudes of Greek-Cypriots towards their regional variety. It is argued that the unconventional and norm-free character of CMC allows internet users to use their non-standard variety in a domain where the standard would be expected to be used.