Sequential designs for phase III clinical trials incorporating treatment selection

Most statistical methodology for phase III clinical trials focuses on the comparison of a single experimental treatment with a control. An increasing desire to reduce the time before regulatory approval of a new drug is sought has led to development of two-stage or sequential designs for trials that combine the definitive analysis associated with phase III with the treatment selection element of a phase II study. In this paper we consider a trial in which the most promising of a number of experimental treatments is selected at the first interim analysis. This considerably reduces the computational load associated with the construction of stopping boundaries compared to the approach proposed by Follman, Proschan and Geller (Biometrics 1994; 50: 325-336). The computational requirement does not exceed that for the sequential comparison of a single experimental treatment with a control. Existing methods are extended in two ways. First, the use of the efficient score as a test statistic makes the analysis of binary, normal or failure-time data, as well as adjustment for covariates or stratification straightforward. Second, the question of trial power is also considered, enabling the determination of sample size required to give specified power. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

An adaptive group sequential design for phase II/III clinical trials that select a single treatment from several

There is increasing interest in combining Phases II and III of clinical development into a single trial in which one of a small number of competing experimental treatments is ultimately selected and where a valid comparison is made between this treatment and the control treatment. Such a trial usually proceeds in stages, with the least promising experimental treatments dropped as soon as possible. In this paper we present a highly flexible design that uses adaptive group sequential methodology to monitor an order statistic. By using this approach, it is possible to design a trial which can have any number of stages, begins with any number of experimental treatments, and permits any number of these to continue at any stage. The test statistic used is based upon efficient scores, so the method can be easily applied to binary, ordinal, failure time, or normally distributed outcomes. The method is illustrated with an example, and simulations are conducted to investigate its type I error rate and power under a range of scenarios.

Conditionally unbiased estimation in phase II/III clinical trials with early stopping for futility

Seamless phase II/III clinical trials combine traditional phases II and III into a single trial that is conducted in two stages, with stage 1 used to answer phase II objectives such as treatment selection and stage 2 used for the confirmatory analysis, which is a phase III objective. Although seamless phase II/III clinical trials are efficient because the confirmatory analysis includes phase II data from stage 1, inference can pose statistical challenges. In this paper, we consider point estimation following seamless phase II/III clinical trials in which stage 1 is used to select the most effective experimental treatment and to decide if, compared with a control, the trial should stop at stage 1 for futility. If the trial is not stopped, then the phase III confirmatory part of the trial involves evaluation of the selected most effective experimental treatment and the control. We have developed two new estimators for the treatment difference between these two treatments with the aim of reducing bias conditional on the treatment selection made and on the fact that the trial continues to stage 2. We have demonstrated the properties of these estimators using simulations

Integrated clinical pathway management for medical quality improvement-based on a semiotically inspired systems architecture

Clinical pathway is an approach to standardise care processes to support the implementations of clinical guidelines and protocols. It is designed to support the management of treatment processes including clinical and non-clinical activities, resources and also financial aspects. It provides detailed guidance for each stage in the management of a patient with the aim of improving the continuity and coordination of care across different disciplines and sectors. However, in the practical treatment process, the lack of knowledge sharing and information accuracy of paper-based clinical pathways burden health-care staff with a large amount of paper work. This will often result in medical errors, inefficient treatment process and thus poor quality medical services. This paper first presents a theoretical underpinning and a co-design research methodology for integrated pathway management by drawing input from organisational semiotics. An approach to integrated clinical pathway management is then proposed, which aims to embed pathway knowledge into treatment processes and existing hospital information systems. The capability of this approach has been demonstrated through the case study in one of the largest hospitals in China. The outcome reveals that medical quality can be improved significantly by the classified clinical pathway knowledge and seamless integration with hospital information systems.

A comparison of methods for constructing confidence intervals after phase II/III clinical trials

Recently, in order to accelerate drug development, trials that use adaptive seamless designs such as phase II/III clinical trials have been proposed. Phase II/III clinical trials combine traditional phases II and III into a single trial that is conducted in two stages. Using stage 1 data, an interim analysis is performed to answer phase II objectives and after collection of stage 2 data, a final confirmatory analysis is performed to answer phase III objectives. In this paper we consider phase II/III clinical trials in which, at stage 1, several experimental treatments are compared to a control and the apparently most effective experimental treatment is selected to continue to stage 2. Although these trials are attractive because the confirmatory analysis includes phase II data from stage 1, the inference methods used for trials that compare a single experimental treatment to a control and do not have an interim analysis are no longer appropriate. Several methods for analysing phase II/III clinical trials have been developed. These methods are recent and so there is little literature on extensive comparisons of their characteristics. In this paper we review and compare the various methods available for constructing confidence intervals after phase II/III clinical trials.

Cancer patients taking herbal medicines: a review of clinical purposes, associated factors, and perceptions of benefit or harm

Ethnopharmacological relevance: Cancer patients in all cultures are high consumers of herbal medicines (HMs) usually as part of a regime consisting of several complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) modalities, but the type of patient, the reasons for choosing such HM-CAM regimes, and the benefits they perceive from taking them are poorly understood. There are also concerns that local information may be ignored due to language issues. This study investigates aspects of HM-CAM use in cancer patients using two different abstracting sources: Medline, which contains only peer-reviewed studies from SCI journals, and in order to explore whether further data may be available regionally, the Thai national databases of HM and CAM were searched as an example. Materials and methods: the international and Thai language databases were searched separately to identify relevant studies, using key words chosen to include HM use in all traditions. Analysis of these was undertaken to identify socio-demographic and clinical factors, as well as sources of information, which may inform the decision to use HMs. Results: Medline yielded 5,638 records, with 49 papers fitting the criteria for review. The Thai databases yielded 155, with none relevant for review. Factors associated with HM-CAM usage were: a younger age, higher education or economic status, multiple chemotherapy treatment, late stage of disease. The most common purposes for using HM-CAM cited by patients were to improve physical symptoms, support emotional health, stimulate the immune system, improve quality of life, and relieve side-effects of conventional treatment. Conclusions: Several indicators were identified for cancer patients who are most likely to take HM-CAM. However, interpreting the clinical reasons why patients decide to use HM-CAM is hampered by a lack of standard terminology and thematic coding, because patients' own descriptions are too variable and overlapping for meaningful comparison. Nevertheless, fears that the results of local studies published regionally are being missed, at least in the case of Thailand, appeared to be unfounded.