Macroclimate and viticultural zoning in Europe: observed trends and atmospheric forcing

Temperature and precipitation are major forcing factors influencing grapevine phenology and yield, as well as wine quality. Bioclimatic indices describing the suitability of a particular region for wine production are a commonly used tool for viticultural zoning. For this research these indices were computed for Europe by using the E-OBS gridded daily temperature and precipitation data set for the period from 1950 to 2009. Results showed strong regional contrasts based on the different index patterns and reproduced the wide diversity of local conditions that largely explain the quality and diversity of grapevines being grown across Europe. Owing to the strong inter-annual variability in the indices, a trend analysis and a principal component analysis were applied together with an assessment of their mean patterns. Significant trends were identified in the Winkler and Huglin indices, particularly for southwestern Europe. Four statistically significant orthogonal modes of variability were isolated for the Huglin index (HI), jointly representing 82% of the total variance in Europe. The leading mode was largely dominant (48% of variance) and mainly reflected the observed historical long-term changes. The other 3 modes corresponded to regional dipoles within Europe. Despite the relevance of local and regional climatic characteristics to grapevines, it was demonstrated via canonical correlation analysis that the observed inter-annual variability of the HI was strongly controlled by the large-scale atmospheric circulation during the growing season (April to September).

Climate change scenarios applied to viticultural zoning in Europe

Climate is one of the main factors controlling winegrape production. Bioclimatic indices describing the suitability of a particular region for wine production are a widely used zoning tool. Seven suitable bioclimatic indices characterize regions in Europe with different viticultural suitability, and their possible geographical shifts under future climate conditions are addressed using regional climate model simulations. The indices are calculated from climatic variables (daily values of temperature and precipitation) obtained from transient ensemble simulations with the regional model COSMO-CLM. Index maps for recent decades (1960–2000) and for the 21st century (following the IPCC-SRES B1 and A1B scenarios) are compared. Results show that climate change is projected to have a significant effect on European viticultural geography. Detrimental impacts on winegrowing are predicted in southern Europe, mainly due to increased dryness and cumulative thermal effects during the growing season. These changes represent an important constraint to grapevine growth and development, making adaptation strategies crucial, such as changing varieties or introducing water supply by irrigation. Conversely, in western and central Europe, projected future changes will benefit not only wine quality, but might also demarcate new potential areas for viticulture, despite some likely threats associated with diseases. Regardless of the inherent uncertainties, this approach provides valuable information for implementing proper and diverse adaptation measures in different European regions.

Correlating Bayesian date estimates with climatic events and domestication using a bovine case study

The tribe Bovini contains a number of commercially and culturally important species, such as cattle. Understanding their evolutionary time scale is important for distinguishing between post-glacial and domestication-associated population expansions, but estimates of bovine divergence times have been hindered by a lack of reliable calibration points. We present a Bayesian phylogenetic analysis of 481 mitochondrial D-loop sequences, including 228 radiocarbon-dated ancient DNA sequences, using a multi-demographic coalescent model. By employing the radiocarbon dates as internal calibrations, we co-estimate the bovine phylogeny and divergence times in a relaxed-clock framework. The analysis yields evidence for significant population expansions in both taurine and zebu cattle, European aurochs and yak clades. The divergence age estimates support domestication-associated expansion times (less than 12 kyr) for the major haplogroups of cattle. We compare the molecular and palaeontological estimates for the Bison-Bos divergence.

Changes in the extent of glaciers in the Eastern Terskey Alatoo, the Central Tien-Shan, in response to climatic fluctuations in between the end of the 19th and the beginning of the 21st century

Changes in the extent of glaciers and rates of glacier termini retreat in the eastern Terskey-Alatoo Range, the Tien Shan Mountains, Central Asia have been evaluated using the remote sensing techniques. Changes in the extent of 335 glaciers between the end of the Little Ice Age (LIA; mid-19th century), 1990 and 2003 have been estimated through the delineation of glacier outlines and the LIA moraine positions on the Landsat TM and ASTER imagery for 1990 and 2003 respectively. By 2003, the glacier surface area had decreased by 19% of the LIA value, which constitutes a 76 km(2) reduction in glacier surface area. Mapping of 109 glaciers using the 1965 1:25,000 maps revealed that glacier surface area decreased by 12.6% of the 1965 value between 1965 and 2003. Detailed mapping of 10 glaciers using historical maps and aerial photographs from the 1943-1977 period, has enabled glacier extent variations over the 20th century to be identified with a higher temporal resolution. Glacial retreat was slow in the early 20th century but increased considerably between 1943 and 1956 and then again after 1977. The post-1990 period has been marked by the most rapid glacier retreat since the end of the LIA. The observed changes in the extent of glaciers are in line with the observed climatic warming. The regional weather stations have revealed a strong climatic warming during the ablation season since the 1950s at a rate of 0.02-0.03 degrees Ca-1. At the higher elevations in the study area represented by the Tien Shan meteorological station, the summer warming was accompanied by negative anomalies in annual precipitation in the 1990s enhancing glacier retreat. However, trends in precipitation in the post-1997 period cannot be evaluated due to the change in observational practices at this station. Neither station in the study area exhibits significant long-term trends in precipitation. Crown Copyright (C) 2009 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Glacier shrinkage and climatic change in the Russian Altai from the mid-20th century: An assessment using remote sensing and PRECIS regional climate model

This paper examines changes in the surface area of glaciers in the North and South Chuya Ridges, Altai Mountains in 1952-2004 and their links with regional climatic variations. The glacier surface areas for 2004 were derived from the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) imagery. Data from the World Glacier Inventory (WGI)dating to 1952 and aerial photographs from 1952 were used to estimate the changes. 256 glaciers with a combined area of 253±5.1 km2 have been identified in the region in 2004. Estimation of changes in extent of 126 glaciers with the individual areas not less than 0.5 km2 in 1952 revealed a 19.7±5.8% reduction. The observed glacier retreat is primarily driven by an increase in summer temperatures since the 1980s when air temperatures were increasing at a rate of 0.10 - 0.13oC a-1 at the glacier tongue elevation. The regional climate projections for A2 and B2 CO2 emission scenarios developed using PRECIS regional climate model indicate that summer temperatures will increase in the Altai in 2071-2100 by 6-7oC and 3-5oC respectively in comparison with 1961-1990 while annual precipitation will increase by 15% and 5%. The length of the ablation season will extend from June-August to the late April – early October. The projected increases in precipitation will not compensate for the projected warming and glaciers will continue to retreat in the 21st century under both B2 and A2 scenarios.

The climatic effects of the direct injection of water vapour into the stratosphere by large volcanic eruptions

We describe a novel mechanism that can significantly lower the amplitude of the climatic response to certain large volcanic eruptions and examine its impact with a coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model. If sufficiently large amounts of water vapour enter the stratosphere, a climatically significant amount of water vapour can be left over in the lower stratosphere after the eruption, even after sulphate aerosol formation. This excess stratospheric humidity warms the tropospheric climate, and acts to balance the climatic cooling induced by the volcanic aerosol, especially because the humidity anomaly lasts for a period that is longer than the residence time of aerosol in the stratosphere. In particular, northern hemisphere high latitude cooling is reduced in magnitude. We discuss this mechanism in the context of the discrepancy between the observed and modelled cooling following the Krakatau eruption in 1883. We hypothesize that moist coignimbrite plumes caused by pyroclastic flows travelling over ocean rather than land, resulting from an eruption close enough to the ocean, might provide the additional source of stratospheric water vapour.

Emergence of Chenopodium album and Stellaria media of different origins under different climatic conditions

The emergence behaviour of weed species in relation to cultural and meteorological events was studied. Dissimilarities between populations in dormancy and germination ecology, between-year maturation conditions and seed quality and burial site climate all contribute to potentially unpredictable variability. Therefore, a weed emergence data set was produced for weed seeds of Stellaria media and Chenopodium album matured and collected from three populations (Italy, Sweden and UK). The seeds were collected in two consecutive seasons (1999 and 2000) and subsequently buried in the autumn of the same year of maturation in eight contrasting climatic locations throughout Europe and the USA. The experiment sought to explore and explain differences between the three populations in their emergence behaviour. Evidence was demonstrated of synchrony in the timing of the emergence of different populations of a species at a given burial site. The relative magnitudes of emergence from the three populations at a given burial site in a given year were generally similar across all the burial sites in the study. The resulting data set was also used to construct a simple weed emergence model, which was tested for its application to the range of different burial environments and populations. The study demonstrated the possibility of using a simple thermal time-based model to describe part of the emergence behaviour across different burial sites, seed populations and seasons, and a simple winter chilling relationship to adjust for the magnitude of the flush of emergence at a given burial site. This study demonstrates the possibility of developing robust generic models for simple predictions of emergence timing across populations.

Taxonomical vs. functional responses of bee communities to fire in two contrasting climatic regions

Valuable insights into mechanisms of community responses to environmental change can be gained by analysing in tandem the variation in functional and taxonomic composition along environmental gradients. We assess the changes in species and functional trait composition (i.e. dominant traits and functional diversity) of diverse bee communities in contrasting fire-driven systems in two climatic regions: Mediterranean (scrub habitats in Israel) and temperate (chestnut forests in southern Switzerland). In both climatic regions, there were shifts in species diversity and composition related to post-fire age. In the temperate region, functional composition responded markedly to fire; however, in the Mediterranean, the taxonomic response to fire was not matched by functional replacement. These results suggest that greater functional stability to fire in the Mediterranean is achieved by replacement of functionally similar species (i.e. functional redundancy) which dominate under different environmental conditions in the heterogeneous landscapes of the region. In contrast, the greater functional response in the temperate region was attributed to a more rapid post-fire vegetation recovery and shorter time-window when favourable habitat was available relative to the Mediterranean. Bee traits can be used to predict the functional responses of bee communities to environmental changes in habitats of conservation importance in different regions with distinct disturbance regimes. However, predictions cannot be generalized from one climatic region to another where distinct habitat configurations occur.

Chemical characterisation of wild populations of Thymus from different climatic regions in southeast Spain

Thymus is taxonomically a very complex genus with a high frequency of hybridisation and introgression among sympatric species. The variation in accumulation of leaf-surface flavonoids was investigated in 71 wild populations of Thymus front different putative hybrid swarm areas in Andalucia, Spain. Twenty-two flavones, five flavanones, two dihydroflavonols, a flavonol and two unknowns were detected by HPLC-DAD combined with LC-APCI-MS analysis. The majority of compounds were flavones with a lutelin-type substitution of the B-ring, in contrast to previous reports on Macedonian taxa, which predominantly accumulate flavones with apigenin-type substitution of the B-ring. Anatomical and morphometric studies, supported by cluster analysis, identified pure Thymus hyemalis and Thymus baeticus populations, and a large number of putative hybrids. Flavonoid variation was closely related to morphological variation in all populations and is suspected to be a result of genetic polymorphism. Principal component analysis identified the presence of species-specific and geographically linked chemotypes and putative hybrids with mixed morphological and chemical characteristics. Qualitative and quantitative flavonoid accumulation appears to be genetically regulated, while external factors play a secondary role. Flavonoid profiles can thus provide diagnostic markers for the taxonomy of Thymus and are also useful in detecting hybridising taxa. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Weather to disperse? Evidence that climatic conditions influence vertebrate dispersal

1. Dispersal is regarded as critical to the stability of existing populations and the spread of invading species, but empirical data on the effect of travelling conditions during the transfer phase are rare. We present evidence that both timing and distance of ex-natal dispersal in buzzards (Buteo buteo) are strongly affected by weather. 2. Dispersal was recorded more often when the wind changed to a more southerly direction from the more common westerly winds, and when minimum temperatures were lower. The effect of wind direction was greatest in the winter and minimum temperature was most important in the autumn. Poor weather did not appear to initiate dispersal. 3. Dispersal distance was most strongly correlated with maximum temperature during dispersal and wind direction in the following 5-day period. Combined with the sex of the buzzard these three variables accounted for 60% of the variation in dispersal distance. 4. These results are important for conservationists who manage species recovery programs and wildlife managers who model biological invasions.

A statistical mechanical approach for the computation of the climatic response to general forcings

The climate belongs to the class of non-equilibrium forced and dissipative systems, for which most results of quasi-equilibrium statistical mechanics, including the fluctuation-dissipation theorem, do not apply. In this paper we show for the first time how the Ruelle linear response theory, developed for studying rigorously the impact of perturbations on general observables of non-equilibrium statistical mechanical systems, can be applied with great success to analyze the climatic response to general forcings. The crucial value of the Ruelle theory lies in the fact that it allows to compute the response of the system in terms of expectation values of explicit and computable functions of the phase space averaged over the invariant measure of the unperturbed state. We choose as test bed a classical version of the Lorenz 96 model, which, in spite of its simplicity, has a well-recognized prototypical value as it is a spatially extended one-dimensional model and presents the basic ingredients, such as dissipation, advection and the presence of an external forcing, of the actual atmosphere. We recapitulate the main aspects of the general response theory and propose some new general results. We then analyze the frequency dependence of the response of both local and global observables to perturbations having localized as well as global spatial patterns. We derive analytically several properties of the corresponding susceptibilities, such as asymptotic behavior, validity of Kramers-Kronig relations, and sum rules, whose main ingredient is the causality principle. We show that all the coefficients of the leading asymptotic expansions as well as the integral constraints can be written as linear function of parameters that describe the unperturbed properties of the system, such as its average energy. Some newly obtained empirical closure equations for such parameters allow to define such properties as an explicit function of the unperturbed forcing parameter alone for a general class of chaotic Lorenz 96 models. We then verify the theoretical predictions from the outputs of the simulations up to a high degree of precision. The theory is used to explain differences in the response of local and global observables, to define the intensive properties of the system, which do not depend on the spatial resolution of the Lorenz 96 model, and to generalize the concept of climate sensitivity to all time scales. We also show how to reconstruct the linear Green function, which maps perturbations of general time patterns into changes in the expectation value of the considered observable for finite as well as infinite time. Finally, we propose a simple yet general methodology to study general Climate Change problems on virtually any time scale by resorting to only well selected simulations, and by taking full advantage of ensemble methods. The specific case of globally averaged surface temperature response to a general pattern of change of the CO2 concentration is discussed. We believe that the proposed approach may constitute a mathematically rigorous and practically very effective way to approach the problem of climate sensitivity, climate prediction, and climate change from a radically new perspective.