The impact of 21st century Arctic sea ice decline on the climate and mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet and Svalbard’s glaciers and ice caps

The Arctic is a region particularly susceptible to rapid climate change. General circulation models (GCMs) suggest a polar amplification of any global warming signal by a factor of about 1.5 due, in part, to sea ice feedbacks. The dramatic recent decline in multi-year sea ice cover lies outside the standard deviation of the CMIP3 ensemble GCM predictions. Sea ice acts as a barrier between cold air and warmer oceans during winter, as well as inhibiting evaporation from the ocean surface water during the summer. An ice free Arctic would likely have an altered hydrological cycle with more evaporation from the ocean surface leading to changes in precipitation distribution and amount. Using the U.K. Met Office Regional Climate Model (RCM), HadRM3, the atmospheric effects of the observed and projected reduction in Arctic sea ice are investigated. The RCM is driven by the atmospheric GCM HadAM3. Both models are forced with sea surface temperature and sea ice for the period 2061-2090 from the CMIP3 HadGEM1 experiments. Here we use an RCM at 50km resolution over the Arctic and 25km over Svalbard, which captures well the present-day pattern of precipitation and provides a detailed picture of the projected changes in the behaviour of the oceanic-atmosphere moisture fluxes and how they affect precipitation. These experiments show that the projected 21stCentury sea ice decline alone causes large impacts to the surface mass balance (SMB) on Svalbard. However Greenland’s SMB is not significantly affected by sea ice decline alone, but responds with a strongly negative shift in SMB when changes to SST are incorporated into the experiments. This is the first study to characterise the impact of changes in future sea ice to Arctic terrestrial cryosphere mass balance.

Simulated global-mean sea level changes over the last half-millennium

Simulations of the last 500 yr carried out using the Third Hadley Centre Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere GCM (HadCM3) with anthropogenic and natural (solar and volcanic) forcings have been analyzed. Global-mean surface temperature change during the twentieth century is well reproduced. Simulated contributions to global-mean sea level rise during recent decades due to thermal expansion (the largest term) and to mass loss from glaciers and ice caps agree within uncertainties with observational estimates of these terms, but their sum falls short of the observed rate of sea level rise. This discrepancy has been discussed by previous authors; a completely satisfactory explanation of twentieth-century sea level rise is lacking. The model suggests that the apparent onset of sea level rise and glacier retreat during the first part of the nineteenth century was due to natural forcing. The rate of sea level rise was larger during the twentieth century than during the previous centuries because of anthropogenic forcing, but decreasing natural forcing during the second half of the twentieth century tended to offset the anthropogenic acceleration in the rate. Volcanic eruptions cause rapid falls in sea level, followed by recovery over several decades. The model shows substantially less decadal variability in sea level and its thermal expansion component than twentieth-century observations indicate, either because it does not generate sufficient ocean internal variability, or because the observational analyses overestimate the variability.

Infection of bryozoans by Tetracapsuloides bryosalmonae at sites endemic for salmonid proliferative kidney disease

Laboratory-reared colonies of the bryozoans Fredericella sultana and Plumatella fungosa were placed upstream of 2 fish farms endemic for salmonid proliferative kidney disease (PKD) to assess rates of infection of bryozoans by Tetra caps uloides bryosalmonae, the causative agent of PKD. Colonies were deployed in the field for 8 trial periods of 2 wk each throughout the summer of 2001. Following each trial, bryozoan colonies were maintained in laboratory culture for 28 d and were regularly monitored for infection by searching for sac stages of T bryosalmonae. Infections were never identified by observations of sac stages, however positive PCR results and sequencing of cultured material confirmed that cryptic infections were present in colonies of both species deployed at one site. The possibility that PCR results reflected contamination of surfaces of bryozoans can be excluded, given the short period of spore viability of T bryosalmonae. Highest rates of infection occurred when 4 of 23 colonies of F sultana and 1 of 12 colonies of P. fungosa were infected during the period 10 to 24 July. No infections were detected from mid-August to late October at this site. None of the colonies at the other site became infected throughout the period of study. Our data provide the first estimates of infection rates of bryozoans by T bryosalmonae. Additionally, they provide evidence that a cryptic stage can be maintained within bryozoan hosts for a period of 4 to 6 wk.

A surface and catalytic study of heterogenised Os-3(CO)(12) species in MCM-41 structures

Immobilised Os species prepared via chemical vapour deposition (CVD) of Os-3(CO)(12) onto MCM-41 are active and selective catalysts for the dihydroxylation of trans-stilbene in acetone and water, using N-methylmorpholine N-oxide as the oxidant. A detailed temperature programmed decomposition study of the solids enables to identify the active sites as Os-x(CO)(y) surface species. The initial loading of the MCM-41 with the trinuclear precursor, as well as the temperature of the post-synthesis oxidising treatment, are found to have a significant impact on the structure/geometry of the resulting surface species, and thus their catalytic properties. We show how it is also affected by the confined environment of the MCM-41 mesopores and especially the curvature of the 30 Angstrom diameter channels. Finally, a careful study of the catalytic properties of the materials together with a study of the reactivity of the reaction products under similar conditions enable to suggest a mechanism involving the reaction of the oxidant with the osmium carbonyl surface species to form the catalytically active Os-oxo sites, and the formation of an osmoate-type species (through adsorption of the alkene onto the Os-oxo site) which subsequently reacts with the solvent to produce the diol. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Unexpectedly superior enantioselectivity for trans-stilbene cis-dihydroxylation over anchored triosmium carbonyl species in confined Al-MCM-41 channels

Superior enantioselectivity in the dihydroxylation of trans-stilbene catalysed by anchored triosmium carbonyl species without using a chiral modifier is observed inside sterically congested MCM-41 channels; this effect is more pronounced through the introduction of surface Al sites into the silicate.

Heterogenisation of Os species on MCM-41 structure for epoxidation of trans-stilbene

Metal organic chemical vapour deposition technique (MOCVD) has been used to immobilise Os species onto the internal porous structure of MCM-41. Evidence suggests that volatile Os-3(CO)(12) cluster reacts with surface silanol groups of the MCM-41 via an oxidative addition reaction to yield a trinuclear HOs3(CO)(10)(OSi-) surface species. After heat treatment in air or at their very low surface coverage, these triangular sites break up to partially oxidised mononuclear surface species. In the presence of tert-butyl hydroperoxide (TBHP) as an oxidant, we demonstrate that the mononuclear species form extremely active species that catalyse the oxidation of trans-stilbene selectively to the corresponding epoxide. By carefully controlling the parameters of the MOCVD method (loading and calcination temperature), we report a new class of optimised MCM-41 porous heterogeneous catalysts carrying isolated but active Os sites for the selective oxidation of trans-stilbene in liquid phase. The reaction selectivity of the solid supported Os is apparently higher than the soluble homogeneous Os-3(CO)(12) cluster. It is envisaged that our solid supported catalysts not only facilitate separation from products but also offer an excellent utilisation of Os for catalysis. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Carbon-encapsulated radioactive Tc-99m nanoparticles

A macroscopic quantity of quasi-spherical fullerene-like shells (see Figure) that encapsulate iron nanoparticles containing radioisotope Tc-99m are prepared for the first time. The nanocomposite is acid-non-leachable, retaining radioactivity at an extremely high level. This method will enable rigorous studies of what are currently theoretical descriptions of nanometer-scale medicinal delivery vehicles for diagnostic and therapeutic purposes.

The syntheses, structures and redox properties of phosphine-gold(I) and triruthenium-carbonyl cluster derivatives of tolans

The syntheses of several ethynyl-gold(I) phosphine substituted tolans (1,2-diaryl acetylenes) of general form [Au(C=CC6H4C=CC6H4X)(PPh3)] are described [X = Me (2a), OMe (2b), CO2Me (2c), NO2 (2d), CN (2e)]. These complexes react readily with [Ru-3(CO) 10(mu-dppm)] to give the heterometallic clusters [Ru3(mu-AuPPh3)(mu-eta(1), eta(2)-C2C6H4C, CC6H4X)(CO)(7)(mu-dppm)] (3a-e). The crystallographically determined molecular structures of 2b, 2d, 2e and 3a-e are reported here, that of 2a having been described on a previous occasion. Structural, spectroscopic and electrochemical studies were conducted and have revealed little electronic interaction between the remote substituent and the organometallic end-caps. (C) 2007 Elsevier B. V. All rights reserved.

Magnetically separable, carbon-supported nanocatalysts for the manufacture of fine chemicals

The best of both worlds: The synthesis of carbon-encapsulated iron-based magnetic nanoparticles is described. With such small catalysts that have macroscopic magnetic properties, the advantages of homogeneous or colloidal and heterogeneous catalysts can be combined.

Association of n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids with stability of atherosclerotic plaques: a randomised controlled trial

Background N-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) from oily fish protect against death from cardiovascular disease. We aimed to assess the hypothesis that incorporation of n-3 and n-6 PUFAs into advanced atherosclerotic plaques increases and decreases plaque stability, respectively. Methods We did a randomised controlled trial of patients awaiting carotid endarterectomy. We randomly allocated patients control, sunflower oil (n-6), or fish-oil (n-3) capsules until surgery. Primary outcome was plaque morphology indicative of stability or instability, and outcome measures were concentrations of EPA, DHA, and linoleic acid in carotid plaques; plaque morphology; and presence of macrophages in plaques. Analysis was per protocol. Findings 188 patients were enrolled and randomised; 18 withdrew and eight were excluded. Duration of oil treatment was 7-189 days (median 42) and did not differ between groups. The proportions of EPA and DHA were higher in carotid plaque fractions in patients receiving fish oil compared with those receiving control (absolute difference 0.5 [95% CI 0.3-0.7], 0.4 [0.1-0.6], and 0.2 [0.1-0.4] g/100 g total fatty acids for EPA; and 0.3 [0.0-0.8], 0.4 [0.1-0.7], and 0.3 [0.1-0.6] g/100 g total fatty acids for DHA; in plaque phospholipids, cholesteryl esters, and triacylglycerols, respectively). Sunflower oil had little effect on the fatty acid composition of lipid fractions. Fewer plaques from patients being treated with fish oil had thin fibrous caps and signs of inflammation and more plaques had thick fibrous caps and no signs of inflammation, compared with plaques in patients in the control and sunflower oil groups (odds ratio 0.52 [95% CI 0.24-0.89] and 1.19 [1.02-1.57] vs control; 0.49 [0.23-0.90] and 1.16 [1.01-1.53] vs sunflower oil). The number of macrophages in plaques from patients receiving fish oil was lower than in the other two groups. Carotid plaque morphology and infiltration by macrophages did not differ between control and sunflower oil groups. Interpretation Atherosclerotic plaques readily incorporate n-3 PUFAs from fish-oil supplementation, inducing changes that can enhance stability of atherosclerotic plaques. By contrast, increased consumption of n-6 PUFAs does not affect carotid plaque fatty-acid composition or stability over the time course studied here. Stability of plaques could explain reductions in non-fatal and fatal cardiovascular events associated with increased n-3 PUFA intake.

Detection of somaclonal variation during cocoa somatic embryogenesis characterised using cleaved amplified polymorphic sequence and the new freeware Artbio

The scarcity and stochastic nature of genetic mutations presents a significant challenge for scientists seeking to characterise de novo mutation frequency at specific loci. Such mutations can be particularly numerous during regeneration of plants from in vitro culture and can undermine the value of germplasm conservation efforts. We used cleaved amplified polymorphic sequence (CAPS) analysis to characterise new mutations amongst a clonal population of cocoa plants regenerated via a somatic embryogenesis protocol used previously for cocoa cryopreservation. Efficacy of the CAPS system for mutation detection was greatly improved after an ‘a priori’ in silico screen of reference target sequences for actual and potential restriction enzyme recognition sites using a new freely available software called Artbio. Artbio surveys known sequences for existing restriction enzyme recognition sites but also identifies all single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) deviations from such motifs. Using this software, we performed an in silico screen of seven loci for restriction sites and their potential mutant SNP variants that were possible from 21 restriction enzymes. The four most informative locus-enzyme combinations were then used to survey the regenerant populations for de novo mutants. We characterised the pattern of point mutations and, using the outputs of Artbio, calculated the ratio of base substitution in 114 somatic embryo-derived cocoa regenerants originating from two explant genotypes. We found 49 polymorphisms, comprising 26.3% of the samples screened, with an inferred rate of 2.8 × 10−3 substitutions/screened base. This elevated rate is of a similar order of magnitude to previous reports of de novo microsatellite length mutations arising in the crop and suggests caution should be exercised when applying somatic embryogenesis for the conservation of plant germplasm.

Making the least active pay: a simulation of rewards and penalties under Demand Side Participation programs

The orthodox approach for incentivising Demand Side Participation (DSP) programs is that utility losses from capital, installation and planning costs should be recovered under financial incentive mechanisms which aim to ensure that utilities have the right incentives to implement DSP activities. The recent national smart metering roll-out in the UK implies that this approach needs to be reassessed since utilities will recover the capital costs associated with DSP technology through bills. This paper introduces a reward and penalty mechanism focusing on residential users. DSP planning costs are recovered through payments from those consumers who do not react to peak signals. Those consumers who do react are rewarded by paying lower bills. Because real-time incentives to residential consumers tend to fail due to the negligible amounts associated with net gains (and losses) or individual users, in the proposed mechanism the regulator determines benchmarks which are matched against responses to signals and caps the level of rewards/penalties to avoid market distortions. The paper presents an overview of existing financial incentive mechanisms for DSP; introduces the reward/penalty mechanism aimed at fostering DSP under the hypothesis of smart metering roll-out; considers the costs faced by utilities for DSP programs; assesses linear rate effects and value changes; introduces compensatory weights for those consumers who have physical or financial impediments; and shows findings based on simulation runs on three discrete levels of elasticity.

Understanding and projecting sea level change

There is intense scientific and public interest in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections of sea level for the twenty-first century and beyond. The Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) projections, obtained by applying standard methods to the results of the World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Experiment, includes estimates of ocean thermal expansion, the melting of glaciers and ice caps (G&ICs), increased melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet, and increased precipitation over Greenland and Antarctica, partially offsetting other contributions. The AR4 recognized the potential for a rapid dynamic ice sheet response but robust methods for quantifying it were not available. Illustrative scenarios suggested additional sea level rise on the order of 10 to 20 cm or more, giving a wide range in the global averaged projections of about 20 to 80 cm by 2100. Currently, sea level is rising at a rate near the upper end of these projections. Since publication of the AR4 in 2007, biases in historical ocean temperature observations have been identified and significantly reduced, resulting in improved estimates of ocean thermal expansion. Models that include all climate forcings are in good agreement with these improved observations and indicate the importance of stratospheric aerosol loadings from volcanic eruptions. Estimates of the volumes of G&ICs and their contributions to sea level rise have improved. Results from recent (but possibly incomplete) efforts to develop improved ice sheet models should be available for the 2013 IPCC projections. Improved understanding of sea level rise is paving the way for using observations to constrain projections. Understanding of the regional variations in sea level change as a result of changes in ocean properties, wind-stress patterns, and heat and freshwater inputs into the ocean is improving. Recently, estimates of sea level changes resulting from changes in Earth's gravitational field and the solid Earth response to changes in surface loading have been included in regional projections. While potentially valuable, semi-empirical models have important limitations, and their projections should be treated with caution

Revisiting the Earth's sea-level and energy budgets from 1961 to 2008

We review the sea-level and energy budgets together from 1961, using recent and updated estimates of all terms. From 1972 to 2008, the observed sea-level rise (1.8 ± 0.2 mm yr−1 from tide gauges alone and 2.1 ± 0.2 mm yr−1 from a combination of tide gauges and altimeter observations) agrees well with the sum of contributions (1.8 ± 0.4 mm yr−1) in magnitude and with both having similar increases in the rate of rise during the period. The largest contributions come from ocean thermal expansion (0.8 mm yr−1) and the melting of glaciers and ice caps (0.7 mm yr−1), with Greenland and Antarctica contributing about 0.4 mm yr−1. The cryospheric contributions increase through the period (particularly in the 1990s) but the thermosteric contribution increases less rapidly. We include an improved estimate of aquifer depletion (0.3 mm yr−1), partially offsetting the retention of water in dams and giving a total terrestrial storage contribution of −0.1 mm yr−1. Ocean warming (90% of the total of the Earth's energy increase) continues through to the end of the record, in agreement with continued greenhouse gas forcing. The aerosol forcing, inferred as a residual in the atmospheric energy balance, is estimated as −0.8 ± 0.4 W m−2 for the 1980s and early 1990s. It increases in the late 1990s, as is required for consistency with little surface warming over the last decade. This increase is likely at least partially related to substantial increases in aerosol emissions from developing nations and moderate volcanic activity

The impact of a seasonally ice free Arctic Ocean on the temperature, precipitation and surface mass balance of Svalbard

The observed decline in summer sea ice extent since the 1970s is predicted to continue until the Arctic Ocean is seasonally ice free during the 21st Century. This will lead to a much perturbed Arctic climate with large changes in ocean surface energy flux. Svalbard, located on the present day sea ice edge, contains many low lying ice caps and glaciers and is expected to experience rapid warming over the 21st Century. The total sea level rise if all the land ice on Svalbard were to melt completely is 0.02 m. The purpose of this study is to quantify the impact of climate change on Svalbard’s surface mass balance (SMB) and to determine, in particular, what proportion of the projected changes in precipitation and SMB are a result of changes to the Arctic sea ice cover. To investigate this a regional climate model was forced with monthly mean climatologies of sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice concentration for the periods 1961–1990 and 2061–2090 under two emission scenarios. In a novel forcing experiment, 20th Century SSTs and 21st Century sea ice were used to force one simulation to investigate the role of sea ice forcing. This experiment results in a 3.5 m water equivalent increase in Svalbard’s SMB compared to the present day. This is because over 50 % of the projected increase in winter precipitation over Svalbard under the A1B emissions scenario is due to an increase in lower atmosphere moisture content associated with evaporation from the ice free ocean. These results indicate that increases in precipitation due to sea ice decline may act to moderate mass loss from Svalbard’s glaciers due to future Arctic warming.