Granger causality of coupled climate processes: Ocean feedback on the North Atlantic oscillation

This study uses a Granger causality time series modeling approach to quantitatively diagnose the feedback of daily sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on daily values of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) as simulated by a realistic coupled general circulation model (GCM). Bivariate vector autoregressive time series models are carefully fitted to daily wintertime SST and NAO time series produced by a 50-yr simulation of the Third Hadley Centre Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere GCM (HadCM3). The approach demonstrates that there is a small yet statistically significant feedback of SSTs oil the NAO. The SST tripole index is found to provide additional predictive information for the NAO than that available by using only past values of NAO-the SST tripole is Granger causal for the NAO. Careful examination of local SSTs reveals that much of this effect is due to the effect of SSTs in the region of the Gulf Steam, especially south of Cape Hatteras. The effect of SSTs on NAO is responsible for the slower-than-exponential decay in lag-autocorrelations of NAO notable at lags longer than 10 days. The persistence induced in daily NAO by SSTs causes long-term means of NAO to have more variance than expected from averaging NAO noise if there is no feedback of the ocean on the atmosphere. There are greater long-term trends in NAO than can be expected from aggregating just short-term atmospheric noise, and NAO is potentially predictable provided that future SSTs are known. For example, there is about 10%-30% more variance in seasonal wintertime means of NAO and almost 70% more variance in annual means of NAO due to SST effects than one would expect if NAO were a purely atmospheric process.

Pliocene seasonality across the North Atlantic inferred from cheilostome bryozoans

Previous studies have shown an inverse correlation between zooid size in cheilostome bryozoans and ambient water temperature. This relationship underlies the MART technique which uses intracolonial variation in zooid size to predict mean annual range in temperature experienced by bryozoan colonies during their life. Here we apply the MART technique to study Early and Mid Pliocene bryozoans from Central America (Panama, Costa Rica), the USA (Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia) and the UK (Suffolk) to reconstruct palaeoseasonality across a range of latitudes for the North Atlantic during the Pliocene Epoch. Compared to the present-day, our analyses suggest greater seasonality (ca 4.5 degrees C) in the southern Caribbean at the time of Cayo Agua Formation deposition (ca 4.25 Ma), in keeping with inferred upwelling prior to the closure of the isthmian barrier at 2.7 Ma. Bryozoans also indicate seasonal upwelling on the Gulf Coast of Florida in a similar manner to the present-day. Because upwelling can be highly localised and prone to spatial and temporal variation in the Gulf of Mexico today, it contributes little to a broad understanding of Pliocene North Atlantic waters. However, MART estimates for the coastal plain region indicate a general reduction in the annual range in temperature relative to the present, suggesting that the colder surface waters that today reach south to Cape Hatteras had less influence in Early to Mid Pliocene times. These results, along with evidence from other proxies, strongly support reduced seasonality and warmer conditions along the eastern seaboard of the USA in the Early to Mid Pliocene. Finally, the MART estimates amongst Coralline Crag localities provide evidence for an increased annual range in temperature in the southern North Sea than at present. Our study shows that bryozoan MART estimates provide a powerful, independent proxy for palaeoseasonality and is the first to demonstrate that the MART technique can be applied to infer palaeoclimates across a wide range of latitudes focusing on a variety of geological formations and geographical regions. Crown Copyright (C) 2009 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Are Cape floral clades the same age? Contemporaneous origins of two lineages in the genistoids s.l. (Fabaceae)

The hypothesis that the elements of the modern species-rich flora of the Cape Floristic Region (CFR), South Africa, originated more or less simultaneously at the Miocene/Pliocene boundary, in response to the development of a mediterranean climate, has been challenged by numerous molecular dating estimates of Cape floral clades. These studies reveal a more gradual emergence, with the oldest clades originating in the Eocene, but others appearing later, some as recently as the Pliocene. That there are factors which might affect the dates recovered, such as choice of calibration point, analysis method, sampling density and the delimitation of Cape floral clades, suggests a need for further critical evaluation of the age estimates presented to date. In this study, the dates of origin of two Cape floral clades (the legume Crotalarieae p.p. and Podalyrieae) are estimated, constrained by a shared calibration point in a single analysis using an rDNA ITS phylogeny in which 633 taxa are sampled. The results indicate that these two clades arose contemporaneously 44-46 mya, not at the Miocene/Pliocene boundary as had been previously supposed. The contemporaneous origin of these Cape floral clades suggests that additional more inclusive analyses are needed before rejecting the hypothesis that a. single environmental trigger explains the establishment of Cape floral clades. (c) 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Diversification of a large genus in a continental biodiversity hotspot: temporal and spatial origin of Muraltia (Polygalaceae) in the Cape of South Africa

Phylogenetic relationships in the largely South African genus Muraltia (Polygalaceae) are assessed based on DNA sequence data (nuclear ribosomal ITS, plastid atpB-rbcL spacer, trnL intron, and trnL-F spacer) for 73 of the 117 currently recognized species in the genus. The previously recognised subgenus Muraltia is monophyletic, but the South African endemic genus Nylandtia is embedded in Muraltia subgenus Psiloclada. Subgenus Muraltia is found to be sister to subgenus Psiloclada. Estimates show the beginning of diversification of the two subgenera in the early Miocene (Psiloclada, 19.3+/-3.4 Ma; Muraltia, 21.0+/-3.5 Ma) pre-dating the establishment of the Benguela current (intermittent in the middle to late Oligocene and markedly intensifying in the late Miocene), and summer-dry climate in the Cape region. However, the later increase in species numbers is contemporaneous with these climatic phenomena. Results of dispersal-vicariance analyses indicate that major clades in Muraltia diversified from the southwestern and northwestern Cape, where most of the species are found today.

Using phylogeny to investigate the origins of the Cape flora: the importance of taxonomic, gene and genome sampling strategies

Phylogenetic methods hold great promise for the reconstruction of the transition from precursor to modern flora and the identification of underlying factors which drive the process. The phylogenetic methods presently used to address the question of the origin of the Cape flora of South Africa are considered here. The sampling requirements of each of these methods, which include dating of diversifications using calibrated molecular trees, sister pair comparisons, lineage through time plots and biogeographical optimizations are reviewed. Sampling of genes, genomes and species are considered. Although increased higher-level studies and increased sampling are required for robust interpretation, it is clear that much progress is already made. It is argued that despite the remarkable richness of the flora, the Cape flora is a valuable model system to demonstrate the utility of phylogenetic methods in determining the history of a modern flora.

The distribution of species diversity across a flora's component lineages: dating the Cape's 'relicts'

The Cape Floristic Region is exceptionally species-rich both for its area and latitude, and this diversity is highly unevenly distributed among genera. The modern flora is hypothesized to result largely from recent (post-Oligocene) speciation, and it has long been speculated that particular species-poor lineages pre-date this burst of speciation. Here, we employ molecular phylogenetic data in combination with fossil calibrations to estimate the minimum duration of Cape occupation by 14 unrelated putative relicts. Estimates vary widely between lineages (7-101 Myr ago), and when compared with the estimated timing of onset of the modern flora's radiation, it is clear that many, but possibly not all, of these lineages pre-date its establishment. Statistical comparisons of diversities with lineage age show that low species diversity of many of the putative relicts results from a lower rate of diversification than in dated Cape radiations. In other putative relicts, however, we cannot reject the possibility that they diversify at the same underlying rate as the radiations, but have been present in the Cape for insufficient time to accumulate higher diversity. Although the extremes in diversity of currently dated Cape lineages fall outside expectations under a underlying diversification rate, sampling of all Cape lineages would be required to reject this null hypothesis.

Social factors and postpartum depression in Khayelitsha, Cape Town

Social factors, including poverty, are known risk factors for depression. In a previous study conducted in Khayelitsha, a very poor peri-urban settlement near Cape Town, a 34.7% prevalence rate for postpartum depression was found, roughly three times the expected rate internationally. This article is a report on a logistical regression analysis, showing that the odds ratios for the probability of maternal depression at two months were: for the infant being unwanted, OR=4.33, 95% CI: (1.75; 11.60); for the father's negative attitude towards the infant, OR=6.03, 95% CI: (2.01; 20.09); and for the mother cohabiting with (as opposed to not living with) a male partner, OR=2.77, 95% CI: (1.08; 7.69). The odds ratios for the probability of the mother being insensitive towards the infant at two months were: for the mother aged 20 to 24 years, OR=0.40, 95% CI: (0.10; 1.42); for the mother aged 25 to 29 years, OR=0.24, 95% CI: (0.06; 0.77); for the mother aged 30 years or older, OR=0.27, 95% CI: (0.07; 0.90); and for the mother receiving no help from her partner, OR=2.12, 95% CI: (1.05; 4.33). Since data were collected cross-sectionally, it is not possible to draw conclusions about causal pathways. The findings support further investigation into the precursors of, and risk factors for, postpartum depression amongst poor South African women.

Consistent phenological shifts in the making of a biodiversity hotspot: the Cape flora

Background The best documented survival responses of organisms to past climate change on short (glacial-interglacial) timescales are distributional shifts. Despite ample evidence on such timescales for local adaptations of populations at specific sites, the long-term impacts of such changes on evolutionary significant units in response to past climatic change have been little documented. Here we use phylogenies to reconstruct changes in distribution and flowering ecology of the Cape flora - South Africa's biodiversity hotspot - through a period of past (Neogene and Quaternary) changes in the seasonality of rainfall over a timescale of several million years. Results Forty-three distributional and phenological shifts consistent with past climatic change occur across the flora, and a comparable number of clades underwent adaptive changes in their flowering phenology (9 clades; half of the clades investigated) as underwent distributional shifts (12 clades; two thirds of the clades investigated). Of extant Cape angiosperm species, 14-41% have been contributed by lineages that show distributional shifts consistent with past climate change, yet a similar proportion (14-55%) arose from lineages that shifted flowering phenology. Conclusions Adaptive changes in ecology at the scale we uncover in the Cape and consistent with past climatic change have not been documented for other floras. Shifts in climate tolerance appear to have been more important in this flora than is currently appreciated, and lineages that underwent such shifts went on to contribute a high proportion of the flora's extant species diversity. That shifts in phenology, on an evolutionary timescale and on such a scale, have not yet been detected for other floras is likely a result of the method used; shifts in flowering phenology cannot be detected in the fossil record.

Coming to grips with 'abandoned arable' land in efforts to enhance communal grazing systems in the Eastern Cape province, South Africa

The communal lands of the Eastern Cape have been regarded as both tools and problems by policy-makers. In particular, communal lands are problematised as environmentally degraded, of suboptimum productivity and constraining economic development. The Eastern Cape Communal Lands Research Project was framed within this policy discourse with the aim of introducing legume-based pasture into ‘abandoned arable lands’. Initial results from community workshops show that the institutional arrangements for these arable lands vary widely and, with them, the capacity to utilise any new technology that may have application to them. Rather than simply draw on social capital, if a participatory research approach is to enhance the agency of the participating communites, it may need to contribute to social capital building and especially to create a dialogical space in which the matters being researched can be discussed meaningfully.

Fenced in: Common property struggles in the management of communal rangelands in central Eastern Cape Province, South Africa

This paper takes as its starting point the assertion that current rangeland management in the central Eastern Cape Province (former Ciskei) of South Africa, is characterised primarily by an ‘open access’ approach. Empirical material drawn from three case-study communities in the region is used to examine the main barriers to management of rangeland as a ‘commons’. The general inability to define and enforce rights to particular grazing resourses in the face of competing claims from ‘outsiders’, as well as inadequate local institutions responsible for rangeland management are highlighted as being of key importance. These are often exacerbated by lack of available grazing land, diffuse user groups and local political and ethnic divisions. Many of these problems have a strong legacy in historical apartheid policies such as forced resettlement and betterment planning. On this basis it is argued that policy should focus on facilitating the emergence of effective, local institutions for rangeland management. Given the limited grazing available to many communities in the region, a critical aspect of this will be finding ways to legitimise current patterns of extensive resource use, which traverse existing ‘community’ boundaries. However, this runs counter to recent legislation, which strongly links community management with legal ownership of land within strict boundaries often defined through fencing. Finding ways to overcome this apparent disjuncture between theory and policy will be vital for the effective management of common pool grazing resources in the region.

Contested institutions? Traditional leaders and land access and control in communal areas of Eastern Cape Province, South Africa

The South African government has endeavoured to strengthen property rights in communal areas and develop civil society institutions for community-led development and natural resource management. However, the effectiveness of this remains unclear as the emergence and operation of civil society institutions in these areas is potentially constrained by the persistence of traditional authorities. Focusing on the former Transkei region of Eastern Cape Province, three case study communities are used examine the extent to which local institutions overlap in issues of land access and control. Within these communities, traditional leaders (chiefs and headmen) continue to exercise complete and sole authority over land allocation and use this to entrench their own positions. However, in the absence of effective state support, traditional authorities have only limited power over how land is used and in enforcing land rights, particularly over communal resources such as rangeland. This diminishes their local legitimacy and encourages some groups to contest their authority by cutting fences, ignoring collective grazing decisions and refusing to pay ‘fees’ levied on them. They are encouraged in such activities by the presence of democratically elected local civil society institutions such as ward councillors and farmers’ organisations, which have broad appeal and are increasingly responsible for much of the agrarian development that takes place, despite having no direct mandate over land. Where it occurs at all, interaction between these different institutions is generally restricted to approval being required from traditional leaders for land allocated to development projects. On this basis it is argued that a more radical approach to land reform in communal areas is required, which transfers all powers over land to elected and accountable local institutions and integrates land allocation, land management and agrarian development more effectively.

Harnessing the ancestors: mutuality, uncertainty and ritual practice in the Eastern Cape Province, South Africa

In the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa, chronic economic uncertainty has seen social relations stretched to breaking point. Informants speak of a 'war between men and women'. While grinding poverty, death in the shape of the 'axe' (HIV/AIDS) and suspicion stalk the land, and the project of building the umzi (homestead) falters, hope for the future and with it, trust between people, leaches away. One response to such uncertainty is a turn to ritual. Through a nearly relentless schedule of ritual activity which invokes the ancestors and the Christian deity in various forms, Xhosa people attempt to dam up trust, secure ongoing investment in the rural homestead and sustain ties of reciprocity both among rural people and between them and their urban kin. It is also through the staging of these rituals that women, acting together and in support of each other, are increasingly assertive – often in the face of a violent, rearguard opposition from men - in their efforts to exercise agency over the differentiated, fragmented and fragile social and economic relationships within their homesteads and across their villages.