Influence of the seasonal cycle on the termination of El Nino events in a coupled general circulation model

In this study, the mechanisms leading to the El Nino peak and demise are explored through a coupled general circulation model ensemble approach evaluated against observations. The results here suggest that the timing of the peak and demise for intense El Nino events is highly predictable as the evolution of the coupled system is strongly driven by a southward shift of the intense equatorial Pacific westerly anomalies during boreal winter. In fact, this systematic late-year shift drives an intense eastern Pacific thermocline shallowing, constraining a rapid El Nino demise in the following months. This wind shift results from a southward displacement in winter of the central Pacific warmest SSTs in response to the seasonal evolution of solar insolation. In contrast, the intensity of this seasonal feedback mechanism and its impact on the coupled system are significantly weaker in moderate El Nino events, resulting in a less pronounced thermocline shallowing. This shallowing transfers the coupled system into an unstable state in spring but is not sufficient to systematically constrain the equatorial Pacific evolution toward a rapid El Nino termination. However, for some moderate events, the occurrence of intense easterly wind anomalies in the eastern Pacific during that period initiate a rapid surge of cold SSTs leading to La Nina conditions. In other cases, weaker trade winds combined with a slightly deeper thermocline allow the coupled system to maintain a broad warm phase evolving through the entire spring and summer and a delayed El Nino demise, an evolution that is similar to the prolonged 1986/87 El Nino event. La Nina events also show a similar tendency to peak in boreal winter, with characteristics and mechanisms mainly symmetric to those described for moderate El Nino cases.

A model for stretch-bend interactions in molecular force fields

Interaction force constants between bond-stretching and angle-bending co-ordinates in polyatomic molecules have been attributed, by some authors, to changes of hybridization due to orbital-following of the bending co-ordinate, and consequent changes of bond length due to the change of hybridization. A method is described for using this model quantitatively to reduce the number of independent force constants in the potential function of a polyatomic molecule, by relating stretch-bend interaction constants to the corresponding diagonal stretching constants. It is proposed to call this model the Hybrid Orbital Force Field. The model is applied to the tetrahedral four co-ordinated carbon atom (as in methane) and to the trigonal planar three coordinated carbon atom (as in formaldehyde).

The calculation of force constants and normal coordinates III: constrained force fields for the methyl halides

A method is discussed for imposing any desired constraint on the force field obtained in a force constant refinement calculation. The application of this method to force constant refinement calculations for the methyl halide molecules is reported. All available data on the vibration frequencies, Coriolis interaction constants and centrifugal stretching constants of CH3X and CD3X molecules were used in the refinements, but despite this apparent abundance of data it was found that constraints were necessary in order to obtain a unique solution to the force field. The results of unconstrained calculations, and of three different constrained calculations, are reported in this paper. The constrained models reported are a Urey—Bradley force field, a modified valence force field, and a constraint based on orbital-following bond-hybridization arguments developed in the following paper. The results are discussed, and compared with previous results for these molecules. The third of the above models is found to reproduce the observed data better than either of the first two, and additional reasons are given for preferring this solution to the force field for the methyl halide molecules.

Plasma concentrations of gut peptides in dairy cattle increase after calving

Effects of transition from late gestation to early lactation on plasma concentrations of glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide (GIP), glucagon-like peptide 1-(7-36) amide (GLP-1), and cholecystokinin (CCK) have not been reported in cattle. The objective of the present study was to measure plasma concentrations of GLP-1, GIP, CCK, insulin, glucose, and nonesterified fatty acids in blood plasma obtained from the coccygeal vein of 32 Holstein cows at an average of 11 d before, and 5, 12, and 19 d after calving. Feed dry matter intake (DMI) averaged 14.4, 17.7, and 19.9 kg/d on d 5, 12, and 19 of lactation, respectively, as milk yield increased (30.6, 36.6, and 39.7 kg/d, respectively). Plasma concentrations of insulin and glucose were lower postpartum than prepartum, but did not differ among samples collected after calving. In contrast, plasma concentration of gut peptides increased linearly after calving, perhaps as a consequence of increased feed intake and nutrient absorption; however, the increases in plasma concentrations of GIP and GLP-1 as lactation progressed were not associated with increased DMI per se, and likely reflect the endocrine and metabolic adaptations of lactogenesis. In contrast, increased concentration of CCK was related both to increasing days in milk and DMI. By 19 d postpartum, concentrations of GLP-1, GIP, and CCK increased by 2.3-, 1.8-, and 2.8-fold, respectively, compared with values at 11 d before calving. Although these peptides have direct and indirect effects that reduce appetite and DMI in other species (including increased insulin secretion), these may be glucose- or insulin-dependent functions, and insulin and glucose concentrations were reduced in early lactation.

Selectivity of bis(calix[4]diquinone) ionophores towards metal ions in solvent dimethylsulfoxide: a molecular mechanics and molecular dynamics study

Molecular modelling studies have been carried out on two bis(calix[4]diqu(inone) ionophores, each created from two (calix[4]diquinone)arenes bridged at their bottom rims via alkyl chains (CH2)(n), 1: n = 3, 2; n = 4, in order to understand the reported selectivity of these ligands towards different sized metal ions such as Na+, K+, Rb+, and Cs+ in dmso solution. Conformational. analyses have been carried out which show that in the lowest energy conformations of the two macrocycles, the individual calix[4]diquinones exhibit a combination of partial cone, 1,3-alternate and cone conformations. The interactions of these alkali metals with the macrocycles have been studied in the gas phase and in a periodic box of solvent dmso by molecular mechanics and molecular dynamics calculations. Molecular mechanics calculations have been carried out on the mode of entry of the ions into the macrocycles and suggest that this is likely to occur from the side of the central cavity, rather than through the main axis of the calix[4]diquinones. There are energy barriers of ca. 19 kcal mol(-1) for this entry path in the gas phase, but in solution no energy barrier is found. Molecular dynamics simulations show that in both 1 and 2, though particularly in the latter macrocycle, one or two solvent molecules are bonded to the metal throughout the course of the simulation, often to the exclusion, of one or more of the ether oxygen atoms. By contrast the carbonyl oxygen atoms remain bonded to the metal atoms throughout with bond lengths that remain significantly less than those to the ether oxygen atoms. Free energy perturbation studies have been carried out in dmso and indicate that for 1, the selectivity follows the order Rb+ approximate to K+ > Cs+ >> Na+, which is partially in agreement with the experimental results. The energy differences are small and indeed the ratio between stability constants found for Cs+ and K+ complexes is only 0.60, showing that 1 has only a slight preference for K+. For the larger receptor 2, which is better suited to metal complexation, the binding affinity follows the pattern Cs+ >> Rb+ >> K+ >> Na+, with energy differences of 5.75, 2.61, 2.78 kcal mol(-1) which is perfectly consistent with experimental results.

The effect of feeding modified soyabean oil enriched with C18 : 4 n-3 to broilers on the deposition of n-3 fatty acids in chicken meat

Supplementing broiler diets with conventional vegetable oils has little effect on the long-chain n-3 PUFA (LC n-3 PUFA) content of the meat. The present study investigated the effect on fatty acid composition and sensory characteristics of chicken meat when broilers were fed oil extracted from soyabeans (SDASOY) that had been genetically engineered to produce C18 : 4n-3 (stearidonic acid (SDA), 240 mg/g oil). Three diets were fed to 120 birds (eight replicate pens of five birds) from 15 d to slaughter (41–50 d). Diets were identical apart from the oil added to them (45 and 50 g/kg as fed in the grower and finisher phases, respectively), which was either SDASOY, near-isogenic soya (CON) or fish oil (FISH). The LC n-3 PUFA content of the meat increased in the order CON, SDASOY and FISH. In breast meat with skin, the SDA concentration was 522, 13 and 37 (sem 14·4) mg/100 g meat for SDASOY, CON and FISH, respectively. Equivalent values for C20 : 5n-3 (EPA) were 53, 13 and 140 (sem 8·4); for C22 : 5n-3 (docosapentaenoic acid (DPA)) 65, 15 and 101 (sem 3·5); for C22 : 6n-3 (DHA) 19, 9 and 181 (sem 4·4). Leg meat (with skin) values for SDA were 861, 23 and 68 (sem 30·1); for EPA 87, 9 and 258 (sem 7·5); for DPA 95, 20 and 165 (sem 5·0); for DHA 29, 10 and 278 (sem 8·4). Aroma, taste and aftertaste of freshly cooked breast meat were not affected. Fishy aromas, tastes and aftertastes were associated with LC n-3 PUFA content of the meat, being most noticeable in the FISH leg meat (both freshly cooked and reheated) and in the reheated SDASOY leg meat.

How the European Union does not work: national bargaining success in the Council of Ministers

We know surprisingly little about whether the content of European Union legislation reflects the preferences of some Member States more than others. The few studies that have examined national bargaining success rates for EU legislation have conceptual and methodological weaknesses. To redress these problems I use a salience-weighted measure to gauge the relative success of Member States in translating their national preferences into legislation, and test two plausible, competing hypotheses about how the EU works: that no state consistently achieves more of what it really wants than any other, and that large Member States tend to beat small ones. Neither hypothesis receives empirical support. Not only do states differ far more significantly in their respective levels of bargaining success than previously recognised, but some of the smaller states are the ones that do especially well. The paper‟s main contribution -- demonstrating that the EU does not work as most people think it does -- sets the stage for new research questions, both positive and normative. In the last section I make a tentative start answering two of the most important: which factors explain the surprising empirical results, and whether differential national bargaining success might undermine the legitimacy of the integration process.

Bistable systems with stochastic noise: virtues and limits of effective one-dimensional Langevin equations

The understanding of the statistical properties and of the dynamics of multistable systems is gaining more and more importance in a vast variety of scientific fields. This is especially relevant for the investigation of the tipping points of complex systems. Sometimes, in order to understand the time series of given observables exhibiting bimodal distributions, simple one-dimensional Langevin models are fitted to reproduce the observed statistical properties, and used to investing-ate the projected dynamics of the observable. This is of great relevance for studying potential catastrophic changes in the properties of the underlying system or resonant behaviours like those related to stochastic resonance-like mechanisms. In this paper, we propose a framework for encasing this kind of studies, using simple box models of the oceanic circulation and choosing as observable the strength of the thermohaline circulation. We study the statistical properties of the transitions between the two modes of operation of the thermohaline circulation under symmetric boundary forcings and test their agreement with simplified one-dimensional phenomenological theories. We extend our analysis to include stochastic resonance-like amplification processes. We conclude that fitted one-dimensional Langevin models, when closely scrutinised, may result to be more ad-hoc than they seem, lacking robustness and/or well-posedness. They should be treated with care, more as an empiric descriptive tool than as methodology with predictive power.

Fat composition of organic and conventional retail milk in northeast England

This study of UK retail milk identified highly significant variations in fat composition. The survey, conducted over 2 yr replicating summer and winter, sampled 22 brands, 10 of which indicated organic production systems. Results corroborate earlier farm-based findings considering fat composition of milk produced under conventional and organic management. Organic milk had higher concentrations of beneficial fatty acids (FA) than conventional milk, including total polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA; 39.4 vs. 31.8 g/kg of total FA), conjugated linoleic acid cis-9,trans-11 (CLA9; 7.4 v 5.6 g/kg of FA), and α-linolenic acid (α-LN; 6.9 vs. 4.4 g/kg of FA). As expected, purchase season had a strong effect on fat composition: compared with milk purchased in winter, summer milk had a lower concentration of saturated fatty acids (682 vs. 725 g/kg of FA) and higher concentrations of PUFA (37.6 vs. 32.8 g/kg of FA), CLA9 (8.1 vs. 4.7 g/kg of FA), and α-LN (6.5 vs. 4.6 g/kg of FA). Differences identified between sampling years were more surprising: compared with that in yr 2, milk purchased in year 1 had higher concentrations of PUFA (37.5 vs. 32.9 g/kg of FA), α-LN (6.0 vs. 5.1 g/kg of FA), and linoleic acid (19.9 vs. 17.5 g/kg of FA) and lower concentrations of C16:0 and C14:0 (332 vs. 357 and 110 vs. 118 g/kg of FA, respectively). Strong interactions were identified between management and season as well as between season and year of the study. As in the earlier farm studies, differences in fat composition between systems were greater for summer compared with winter milk. Large between-year differences may be due to changes in weather influencing milk composition through forage availability, quality, and intake. If climate change predictions materialize, both forage and dairy management may have to adapt to maintain current milk quality. Considerable variation existed in milk fat composition between brands.