Stochastic modelling of rainfall from satellite data

Satellite-based rainfall monitoring is widely used for climatological studies because of its full global coverage but it is also of great importance for operational purposes especially in areas such as Africa where there is a lack of ground-based rainfall data. Satellite rainfall estimates have enormous potential benefits as input to hydrological and agricultural models because of their real time availability, low cost and full spatial coverage. One issue that needs to be addressed is the uncertainty on these estimates. This is particularly important in assessing the likely errors on the output from non-linear models (rainfall-runoff or crop yield) which make use of the rainfall estimates, aggregated over an area, as input. Correct assessment of the uncertainty on the rainfall is non-trivial as it must take account of • the difference in spatial support of the satellite information and independent data used for calibration • uncertainties on the independent calibration data • the non-Gaussian distribution of rainfall amount • the spatial intermittency of rainfall • the spatial correlation of the rainfall field This paper describes a method for estimating the uncertainty on satellite-based rainfall values taking account of these factors. The method involves firstly a stochastic calibration which completely describes the probability of rainfall occurrence and the pdf of rainfall amount for a given satellite value, and secondly the generation of ensemble of rainfall fields based on the stochastic calibration but with the correct spatial correlation structure within each ensemble member. This is achieved by the use of geostatistical sequential simulation. The ensemble generated in this way may be used to estimate uncertainty at larger spatial scales. A case study of daily rainfall monitoring in the Gambia, west Africa for the purpose of crop yield forecasting is presented to illustrate the method.

Adsorption, orientation and thermal decomposition of copper(II) hexafluoroacetylacetonate on rutile TiO2(110)

We have investigated the adsorption and thermal decomposition of copper hexafluoroacetylacetonate (Cu-11(hfaC)(2)) on single crystal rutile TiO2(110). Low energy electron diffraction shows that room temperature saturation coverage of the Cu-II(hfac)(2) adsorbate forms an ordered (2 x 1) over-layer. X-ray and ultra-violet photoemission spectroscopy of the saturated surface were recorded as the sample was annealed in a sequential manner to reveal decomposition pathways. The results show that the molecule dissociatively adsorbs by detachment of one of the two ligands to form hfac and Cu-1(hfac) which chemisorb to the substrate at 298 K. These ligands only begin to decompose once the surface temperature exceeds 473 K where Cu core level shifts indicate metallisation. This reduction from Cu(I) to Cu(0) takes place in the absence of an external reducing agent and without disproportionation and is accompanied by the onset of decomposition of the hfac ligands. Finally, C K-edge near edge X-ray absorption fine structure experiments indicate that both the ligands adsorb aligned in the < 001 > direction and we propose a model in which the hfac ligands adsorb on the 5-fold coordinated Ti atoms and the Cu-1(hfac) moiety attaches to the bridging O atoms in a square planar geometry. The calculated tilt angle for these combined geometries is approximately 10 degrees to the surface normal.

Assessing the uncertainty associated with intermittent rainfall fields

[1] In many practical situations where spatial rainfall estimates are needed, rainfall occurs as a spatially intermittent phenomenon. An efficient geostatistical method for rainfall estimation in the case of intermittency has previously been published and comprises the estimation of two independent components: a binary random function for modeling the intermittency and a continuous random function that models the rainfall inside the rainy areas. The final rainfall estimates are obtained as the product of the estimates of these two random functions. However the published approach does not contain a method for estimation of uncertainties. The contribution of this paper is the presentation of the indicator maximum likelihood estimator from which the local conditional distribution of the rainfall value at any location may be derived using an ensemble approach. From the conditional distribution, representations of uncertainty such as the estimation variance and confidence intervals can be obtained. An approximation to the variance can be calculated more simply by assuming rainfall intensity is independent of location within the rainy area. The methodology has been validated using simulated and real rainfall data sets. The results of these case studies show good agreement between predicted uncertainties and measured errors obtained from the validation data.

Linear and nonlinear microrheology of dense colloidal suspensions

The length and time scales accessible to optical tweezers make them an ideal tool for the examination of colloidal systems. Embedded high-refractive-index tracer particles in an index-matched hard sphere suspension provide 'handles' within the system to investigate the mechanical behaviour. Passive observations of the motion of a single probe particle give information about the linear response behaviour of the system, which can be linked to the macroscopic frequency-dependent viscous and elastic moduli of the suspension. Separate 'dragging' experiments allow observation of a sample's nonlinear response to an applied stress on a particle-by particle basis. Optical force measurements have given new data about the dynamics of phase transitions and particle interactions; an example in this study is the transition from liquid-like to solid-like behaviour, and the emergence of a yield stress and other effects attributable to nearest-neighbour caging effects. The forces needed to break such cages and the frequency of these cage breaking events are investigated in detail for systems close to the glass transition.

Towards an assessment of multiple ecosystem processes and services via functional traits

Managing ecosystems to ensure the provision of multiple ecosystem services is a key challenge for applied ecology. Functional traits are receiving increasing attention as the main ecological attributes by which different organisms and biological communities influence ecosystem services through their effects on underlying ecosystem processes. Here we synthesize concepts and empirical evidence on linkages between functional traits and ecosystem services across different trophic levels. Most of the 247 studies reviewed considered plants and soil invertebrates, but quantitative trait–service associations have been documented for a range of organisms and ecosystems, illustrating the wide applicability of the trait approach. Within each trophic level, specific processes are affected by a combination of traits while particular key traits are simultaneously involved in the control of multiple processes. These multiple associations between traits and ecosystem processes can help to identify predictable trait–service clusters that depend on several trophic levels, such as clusters of traits of plants and soil organisms that underlie nutrient cycling, herbivory, and fodder and fibre production. We propose that the assessment of trait–service clusters will represent a crucial step in ecosystem service monitoring and in balancing the delivery of multiple, and sometimes conflicting, services in ecosystem management.

Diet digestibility, rate of passage, and eating and rumination behavior of Jersey and Holstein cows

Diet digestibility and rate of passage, eating and rumination behavior, dry matter intake (DMI), and lactation performance were compared in 6 Jersey and 6 Holstein multiparous cows. Cows were fed gestation diets according to body weight (BW) beginning 7 wk before expected calving and ad libitum amounts of a lactation diet postpartum. Diet digestibility and rate of passage were measured in 5-d periods at wk 5 prepartum and wk 6 and 14 of lactation. Eating and ruminating behavior was measured over 5-d periods at wk 5 and 2 prepartum and wk 2, 6, 10, and 14 of lactation. Milk yield and DMI were higher in Holsteins, but milk energy output per kilogram of metabolic BW (BW0.75) and intake capacity (DMI/kg of BW) did not differ between breeds. Holsteins spent longer ruminating per day compared with Jerseys, but daily eating time did not differ between breeds. Jerseys spent more time eating and ruminating per unit of ingested feed. The duration and number of meals consumed did not differ between breeds, but the meals consumed by Jerseys were distributed more evenly throughout each 24-h period, providing a more regular supply of feed to the rumen. Feed passed through the digestive tract more quickly in Jerseys compared with Holsteins, suggesting particle breakdown and rumen outflow were faster in Jerseys, but this may also reflect the relative size of their digestive tract. Neutral detergent fiber digestibility was greater in Jerseys, despite the shorter rumen retention time, but digestibility of dry matter, organic matter, starch, and N did not differ between breeds. Utilization of digested N for tissue retention was higher at wk 5 prepartum and lower at wk 14 of lactation in Jerseys. In contrast to numerous published studies, intake capacity of Jerseys was not higher than that of Holsteins, but in the present study, cows were selected on the basis of equal expected milk energy yield per kilogram of metabolic BW. Digestibility of neutral detergent fiber and rate of digesta passage were higher in Jerseys, probably as a consequence of increased mastication per unit of feed consumed in Jerseys and their smaller size.

Major advances in fundamental dairy cattle nutrition

Fundamental nutrition seeks to describe the complex biochemical reactions involved in assimilation and processing of nutrients by various tissues and organs, and to quantify nutrient movement (flux) through those processes. Over the last 25 yr, considerable progress has been made in increasing our understanding of metabolism in dairy cattle. Major advances have been made at all levels of biological organization, including the whole animal, organ systems, tissues, cells, and molecules. At the whole-animal level, progress has been made in delineating metabolism during late pregnancy and the transition to lactation, as well as in whole-body use of energy-yielding substrates and amino acids for growth in young calves. An explosion of research using multicatheterization techniques has led to better quantitative descriptions of nutrient use by tissues of the portal-drained viscera (digestive tract, pancreas, and associated adipose tissues) and liver. Isolated tissue preparations have provided important information on the interrelationships among glucose, fatty acid, and amino acid metabolism in liver, adipose tissue, and mammary gland, as well as the regulation of these pathways during different physiological states. Finally, the last 25 yr has witnessed the birth of "molecular biology" approaches to understanding fundamental nutrition. Although measurements of mRNA abundance for proteins of interest already have provided new insights into regulation of metabolism, the next 25 yr will likely see remarkable advances as these techniques continue to be applied to problems of dairy cattle biology. Integration of the "omics" technologies (functional genomics, proteomics, and metabolomics) with measurements of tissue metabolism obtained by other methods is a particularly exciting prospect for the future. The result should be improved animal health and well being, more efficient dairy production, and better models to predict nutritional requirements and provide rations to meet those requirements.

Effects of dietary vitamin A concentration of roasted soybean inclusion on marbling, adipose cellularity, and fatty acid composition of beef

A feedlot trial was conducted to determine the effect of dietary vitamin A concentration and roasted soybean (SB) inclusion on carcass characteristics, adipose tissue cellularity, and muscle fatty acid composition. Angus-crossbred steers (n = 168; 295 +/- 1.8 kg) were allotted to 24 pens (7 steers each). Four treatments, in a 2 x 2 factorial arrangement, were investigated: no supplemental vitamin A, no roasted soybeans (NANS); no vitamin A, roasted SB (20% of the diet on a DM basis; NASB); with supplemental (2,700 IU/kg) vitamin A, no roasted SB (WANS); and with supplemental vitamin A, roasted SB (WASB). Diets included high moisture corn, 5% corn silage, 10 to 20% supplement, and 20% roasted SB in the SB treatments on a DM basis. The calculated vitamin A concentration in the basal diet was < 1,300 IU/kg of DM. Blood samples (2 steers/pen) were collected for serum vitamin A determination. Steers were slaughtered after 168 d on feed. Carcass characteristics and LM composition were determined. Fatty acid composition of LM was analyzed, and adipose cellularity in the i.m. and s.c. depots was determined. No vitamin A x SB interactions were detected (P > 0.10) for cattle performance, carcass composition, or muscle fatty acid composition. Low vitamin A diets (NA) did not affect (P > 0.05) ADG, DMI, or G:F. Quality grade tended (P = 0.07) to be greater in NA steers. Marbling scores and the percentage of carcasses grading > or = Choice(-) were 10% greater for NA steers, although these trends were not significant (P = 0.11 and 0.13, respectively). Backfat thickness and yield grade were not affected (P > 0.26) by vitamin A supplementation. Composition of the LM was not affected (P > 0.15) by vitamin A or SB supplementation. Serum retinol at slaughter was 44% lower (P < 0.01) for steers fed NA than for steers supplemented with vitamin A (23.0 vs. 41.1 microg/dL). A vitamin A x SB interaction occurred (P < 0.05) for adipose cellularity in the i.m. depot; when no SB was fed, vitamin A supplementation decreased cell density and increased cell size. However, when SB was fed, vitamin A supplementation did not affect adipose cellularity. Adipose cellularity at the s.c. depot was not affected (P > 0.18) by vitamin A or SB treatments. Fatty acid profile of the LM was not affected by vitamin A (P > 0.05), but SB increased (P < 0.05) PUFA (7.88 vs. 4.30 g/100 g). It was concluded that feeding NA tended to increase marbling without affecting back-fat and yield grade. It appeared that NA induced hyperplasia in the i.m. but not in the s.c. fat depot.

Effect of dietary vitamin A restriction on marbling and conjugated-linoleic acid (CLA) content in Holstein steers

To determine the effect of duration of dietary vitamin A restriction on site of fat deposition in growing cattle, 60 Holstein steers (BW = 218.4 ± 6.55 kg) were fed a diet based on high-moisture corn with 2,200 IU supplemental vitamin A/kg DM (C) or no supplemental vitamin A for a long (243 d; LR) or short (131 d; SR) restriction prior to harvest at 243 d. The SR steers were fed the C diet for the first 112 d. Steers were penned individually and fed for ad libitum intake. Jugular vein blood samples for serum retinol analysis were collected on d 1, 112, and 243. Carcass samples were collected for composition analysis. Subcutaneous fat samples were collected for fatty acid composition. Fat samples from the i.m. and s.c. depot were collected to measure adipocyte size and density. Feedlot performance (ADG, DMI, and G:F) was not affected (P > 0.05) by vitamin A restriction. On d 243, the i.m. fat content of the LM was 33% greater (P < 0.05) for LR than for SR and C steers (5.6 vs. 3.9 and 4.2% ether extract, respectively). Depth of back fat and KPH percentage were not affected (P = 0.44 and 0.80, respectively) by vitamin A restriction. Carcass weight, composition of edible carcass, and yield grade were similar among treatments (P > 0.10). Liver retinol (LR = 6.1, SR = 6.5, and C = 44.7 µg/g; P < 0.01) was reduced in LR and SR vs. C steers. On d 243, LR and SR steers had similar serum retinol concentrations, and these were lower (P < 0.01) than those of C steers (LR = 21.2, SR = 25.2, and C = 36.9 µg/dL). Intramuscular adipose cellularity (adipocyte/mm2 and mean adipocyte diameter) on d 112 and d 243 was not affected (P > 0.10) by vitamin A restriction. Restricting vitamin A intake for 243 d increased i.m fat percentage without affecting s.c. or visceral fat deposition, feedlot performance, or carcass weight. Restricting vitamin A intake for 131 d at the end of the finishing period appears to be insufficient to affect the site of fat deposition in Holstein steers.