Elusive relationships within order fabales: phylogenetic analyses using matK and rbcL sequence data

The order Fabales, including Leguminosae, Polygalaceae, Quillajaceae and Surianaceae, represents a novel hypothesis emerging from angiosperm molecular phylogenies. Despite good support for the order, molecular studies to date have suggested contradictory, poorly supported interfamilial relationships. Our reappraisal of relationships within Fabales addresses past taxon sampling deficiencies, and employs parsimony and Bayesian approaches using sequences from the plastid regions rbcL (166 spp.) and matK (78 spp.). Five alternative hypotheses for interfamilial relationships within Fabales were recovered. The Shimodaira-Hasegawa test found the likelihood of a resolved topology significantly higher than the one calculated for a polytomy, but did not favour any of the alternative hypotheses of relationship within Fabales. In the light of the morphological evidence available and the comparative behavior of rbcL and matK, the topology recovering Polygalaceae as sister to the rest of the order Fabales with Leguminosae more closely related to Quillajaceae + Surianaceae, is considered the most likely hypothesis of interfamilial relationships of the order. Dating of selected crown clades in the Fabales phylogeny using penalized likelihood suggests rapid radiation of the Leguminosae, Polygalaceae, and (Quillajaceae + Surianaceae) crown clades.

Assessment of surface winds over the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific Ocean sectors of the Southern Ocean in CMIP5 models: historical bias, forcing response, and state dependence

An assessment of the fifth Coupled Models Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models’ simulation of the near-surface westerly wind jet position and strength over the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific sectors of the Southern Ocean is presented. Compared with reanalysis climatologies there is an equatorward bias of 3.7° (inter-model standard deviation of ± 2.2°) in the ensemble mean position of the zonal mean jet. The ensemble mean strength is biased slightly too weak, with the largest biases over the Pacific sector (-1.6±1.1 m/s, 27 -22%). An analysis of atmosphere-only (AMIP) experiments indicates that 41% of the zonal mean position bias comes from coupling of the ocean/ice models to the atmosphere. The response to future emissions scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) is characterized by two phases: (i) the period of most rapid ozone recovery (2000-2049) during which there is insignificant change in summer; and (ii) the period 2050-2098 during which RCP4.5 simulations show no significant change but RCP8.5 simulations show poleward shifts (0.30, 0.19 and 0.28°/decade over the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific sectors respectively), and increases in strength (0.06, 0.08 and 0.15 m/s/decade respectively). The models with larger equatorward position biases generally show larger poleward shifts (i.e. state dependence). This inter-model relationship is strongest over the Pacific sector (r=-0.89) and insignificant over the Atlantic sector (r=-0.50). However, an assessment of jet structure shows that over the Atlantic sector jet shift is significantly correlated with jet width whereas over the Pacific sector the distance between the sub-polar and sub-tropical westerly jets appears to be more important.