Trends in adult body-mass index in 200 countries from 1975 to 2014: a pooled analysis of 1698 population-based measurement studies with 19·2 million participants

Background Underweight and severe and morbid obesity are associated with highly elevated risks of adverse health outcomes. We estimated trends in mean body-mass index (BMI), which characterises its population distribution, and in the prevalences of a complete set of BMI categories for adults in all countries. Methods We analysed, with use of a consistent protocol, population-based studies that had measured height and weight in adults aged 18 years and older. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to these data to estimate trends from 1975 to 2014 in mean BMI and in the prevalences of BMI categories (<18·5 kg/m2 [underweight], 18·5 kg/m2 to <20 kg/m2, 20 kg/m2 to <25 kg/m2, 25 kg/m2 to <30 kg/m2, 30 kg/m2 to <35 kg/m2, 35 kg/m2 to <40 kg/m2, ≥40 kg/m2 [morbid obesity]), by sex in 200 countries and territories, organised in 21 regions. We calculated the posterior probability of meeting the target of halting by 2025 the rise in obesity at its 2010 levels, if post-2000 trends continue. Findings We used 1698 population-based data sources, with more than 19·2 million adult participants (9·9 million men and 9·3 million women) in 186 of 200 countries for which estimates were made. Global age-standardised mean BMI increased from 21·7 kg/m2 (95% credible interval 21·3–22·1) in 1975 to 24·2 kg/m2 (24·0–24·4) in 2014 in men, and from 22·1 kg/m2 (21·7–22·5) in 1975 to 24·4 kg/m2 (24·2–24·6) in 2014 in women. Regional mean BMIs in 2014 for men ranged from 21·4 kg/m2 in central Africa and south Asia to 29·2 kg/m2 (28·6–29·8) in Polynesia and Micronesia; for women the range was from 21·8 kg/m2 (21·4–22·3) in south Asia to 32·2 kg/m2 (31·5–32·8) in Polynesia and Micronesia. Over these four decades, age-standardised global prevalence of underweight decreased from 13·8% (10·5–17·4) to 8·8% (7·4–10·3) in men and from 14·6% (11·6–17·9) to 9·7% (8·3–11·1) in women. South Asia had the highest prevalence of underweight in 2014, 23·4% (17·8–29·2) in men and 24·0% (18·9–29·3) in women. Age-standardised prevalence of obesity increased from 3·2% (2·4–4·1) in 1975 to 10·8% (9·7–12·0) in 2014 in men, and from 6·4% (5·1–7·8) to 14·9% (13·6–16·1) in women. 2·3% (2·0–2·7) of the world's men and 5·0% (4·4–5·6) of women were severely obese (ie, have BMI ≥35 kg/m2). Globally, prevalence of morbid obesity was 0·64% (0·46–0·86) in men and 1·6% (1·3–1·9) in women. Interpretation If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global obesity target is virtually zero. Rather, if these trends continue, by 2025, global obesity prevalence will reach 18% in men and surpass 21% in women; severe obesity will surpass 6% in men and 9% in women. Nonetheless, underweight remains prevalent in the world's poorest regions, especially in south Asia.

Development of multi-electrode array screening for anticonvulsants in acute rat brain slices

The acute hippocampal brain slice preparation is an important in vitro screening tool for potential anticonvulsants. Application of 4-aminopyridine (4-AP) or removal of external Mg2+ ions induces epileptiform bursting in slices which is analogous to electrical brain activity seen in status epilepticus states. We have developed these epileptiform models for use with multi-electrode arrays (MEAs), allowing recording across the hippocampal slice surface from 59 points. We present validation of this novel approach and analyses using two anticonvulsants, felbamate and phenobarbital, the effects of which have already been assessed in these models using conventional extracellular recordings. In addition to assessing drug effects on commonly described parameters (duration, amplitude and frequency), we describe novel methods using the MEA to assess burst propagation speeds and the underlying frequencies that contribute to the epileptiform activity seen. Contour plots are also used as a method of illustrating burst activity. Finally, we describe hitherto unreported properties of epileptiform bursting induced by 100M4-AP or removal of external Mg2+ ions. Specifically, we observed decreases over time in burst amplitude and increase over time in burst frequency in the absence of additional pharmacological interventions. These MEA methods enhance the depth, quality and range of data that can be derived from the hippocampal slice preparation compared to conventional extracellular recordings. It may also uncover additional modes of action that contribute to anti-epileptiform drug effects

Shifts in rhizosphere microbial communities and enzyme activity of Poa alpina across an alpine chronosequence

This study quantifies the influence of Poa alpina on the soil microbial community in primary succession of alpine ecosystems, and whether these effects are controlled by the successional stage. Four successional sites representative of four stages of grassland development (initial, 4 years (non-vegetated); pioneer, 20 years; transition, 75 years; mature, 9500 years old) on the Rotmoos glacier foreland, Austria, were sampled. The size, composition and activity of the microbial community in the rhizosphere and bulk soil were characterized using the chloroform-fumigation extraction procedure, phospholipid fatty acid (PLFA) analysis and measurements of the enzymes beta-glucosidase, beta-xylosidase, N-acetyl-beta-glucosaminidase, leucine aminopeptidase, acid phosphatase and sulfatase. The interplay between the host plant and the successional stage was quantified using principal component (PCA) and multidimensional scaling analyses. Correlation analyses were applied to evaluate the relationship between soil factors (C-org, N-t, C/N ratio, pH, ammonium, phosphorus, potassium) and microbial properties in the bulk soil. In the pioneer stage microbial colonization of the rhizosphere of P. alpina was dependent on the reservoir of microbial species in the bulk soil. As a consequence, the rhizosphere and bulk soil were similar in microbial biomass (ninhydrin-reactive nitrogen (NHR-N)), community composition (PLFA), and enzyme activity. In the transition and mature grassland stage, more benign soil conditions stimulated microbial growth (NHR-N, total amount of PLFA, bacterial PLFA, Gram-positive bacteria, Gram-negative bacteria), and microbial diversity (Shannon index H) in the rhizosphere either directly or indirectly through enhanced carbon allocation. In the same period, the rhizosphere microflora shifted from a G(-) to a more G(+), and from a fungal to a more bacteria-dominated community. Rhizosphere beta-xylosidase, N-acetyl-beta-glucosaminidase, and sulfatase activity peaked in the mature grassland soil, whereas rhizosphere leucine aminopeptidase, beta-glucosidase, and phosphatase activity were highest in the transition stage, probably because of enhanced carbon and nutrient allocation into the rhizosphere due to better growth conditions. Soil organic matter appeared to be the most important driver of microbial colonization in the bulk soil. The decrease in soil pH and soil C/N ratio mediated the shifts in the soil microbial community composition (bacPLFA, bacPLFA/fungPLFA, G(-), G(+)/G(-)). The activities of beta-glucosidase, beta-xylosidase and phosphatase were related to soil ammonium and phosphorus, indicating that higher decomposition rates enhanced the nutrient availability in the bulk soil. We conclude that the major determinants of the microllora vary along the successional gradient: in the pioneer stage the rhizosphere microflora was primarily determined by the harsh soil environment; under more favourable environmental conditions, however, the host plant selected for a specific microbial community that was related to the dynamic interplay between soil properties and carbon supply. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Shifts in rhizosphere microbial communities and enzyme activity of Poa alpina across an alpine chronosequence

This study quantifies the influence of Poa alpina on the soil microbial community in primary succession of alpine ecosystems, and whether these effects are controlled by the successional stage. Four successional sites representative of four stages of grassland development (initial, 4 years (non-vegetated); pioneer, 20 years; transition, 75 years; mature, 9500 years old) on the Rotmoos glacier foreland, Austria, were sampled. The size, composition and activity of the microbial community in the rhizosphere and bulk soil were characterized using the chloroform-fumigation extraction procedure, phospholipid fatty acid (PLFA) analysis and measurements of the enzymes beta-glucosidase, beta-xylosidase, N-acetyl-beta-glucosaminidase, leucine aminopeptidase, acid phosphatase and sulfatase. The interplay between the host plant and the successional stage was quantified using principal component (PCA) and multidimensional scaling analyses. Correlation analyses were applied to evaluate the relationship between soil factors (C-org, N-t, C/N ratio, pH, ammonium, phosphorus, potassium) and microbial properties in the bulk soil. In the pioneer stage microbial colonization of the rhizosphere of P. alpina was dependent on the reservoir of microbial species in the bulk soil. As a consequence, the rhizosphere and bulk soil were similar in microbial biomass (ninhydrin-reactive nitrogen (NHR-N)), community composition (PLFA), and enzyme activity. In the transition and mature grassland stage, more benign soil conditions stimulated microbial growth (NHR-N, total amount of PLFA, bacterial PLFA, Gram-positive bacteria, Gram-negative bacteria), and microbial diversity (Shannon index H) in the rhizosphere either directly or indirectly through enhanced carbon allocation. In the same period, the rhizosphere microflora shifted from a G(-) to a more G(+), and from a fungal to a more bacteria-dominated community. Rhizosphere beta-xylosidase, N-acetyl-beta-glucosaminidase, and sulfatase activity peaked in the mature grassland soil, whereas rhizosphere leucine aminopeptidase, beta-glucosidase, and phosphatase activity were highest in the transition stage, probably because of enhanced carbon and nutrient allocation into the rhizosphere due to better growth conditions. Soil organic matter appeared to be the most important driver of microbial colonization in the bulk soil. The decrease in soil pH and soil C/N ratio mediated the shifts in the soil microbial community composition (bacPLFA, bacPLFA/fungPLFA, G(-), G(+)/G(-)). The activities of beta-glucosidase, beta-xylosidase and phosphatase were related to soil ammonium and phosphorus, indicating that higher decomposition rates enhanced the nutrient availability in the bulk soil. We conclude that the major determinants of the microllora vary along the successional gradient: in the pioneer stage the rhizosphere microflora was primarily determined by the harsh soil environment; under more favourable environmental conditions, however, the host plant selected for a specific microbial community that was related to the dynamic interplay between soil properties and carbon supply. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Orographic precipitation in the tropics: experiments in Dominica

The “natural laboratory” of mountainous Dominica (15°N) in the trade wind belt is used to study the physics of tropical orographic precipitation in its purest form, unforced by weather disturbances or by the diurnal cycle of solar heating. A cross-island line of rain gauges and 5-min radar scans from Guadeloupe reveal a large annual precipitation at high elevation (7 m yr^{−1}) and a large orographic enhancement factor (2 to 8) caused primarily by repetitive convective triggering over the windward slope. The triggering is caused by terrain-forced lifting of the conditionally unstable trade wind cloud layer. Ambient humidity fluctuations associated with open-ocean convection may play a key role. The convection transports moisture upward and causes frequent brief showers on the hilltops. The drying ratio of the full air column from precipitation is less than 1% whereas the surface air dries by about 17% from the east coast to the mountain top. On the lee side, a plunging trade wind inversion and reduced instability destroys convective clouds and creates an oceanic rain shadow.

Effect of replacing calcium salts of palm oil distillate with extruded linseeds on milk fatty acid composition in Jersey and Holstein cows

Clinical and biomedical studies have provided evidence for the critical role of n-3 fatty acids on the reduction of chronic disease risk in humans, including cardiovascular disease. In the current experiment, the potential to enhance milk n-3 content in two breeds with inherent genetic differences in mammary lipogenesis and de novo fatty acid synthesis was examined using extruded linseeds. Six lactating cows (three Holstein and three Jersey) were used in a two-treatment switchback design with 3 × 21-day experimental periods to evaluate the effect of iso-energetic replacement of calcium salts of palm oil distillate (CPO) in the diet (34 g/kg dry matter (DM)) with 100 g/kg DM extruded linseeds (LIN). For both breeds, replacing CPO with LIN had no effect (P > 0.05) on DM intake or milk yield, but reduced (P < 0.05) milk fat and protein yield (on average, from 760 to 706 and 573 to 552 g/day, respectively). Relative to CPO, the LIN treatment reduced (P < 0.01) total saturated fatty acid content and enhanced (P < 0.001) 18:3n-3 in milk, whereas breed by diet interactions were significant for milk fat 16:0, total trans fatty acid and conjugated linoleic acid concentrations. Increases in 18:3n-3 intake derived from LIN in the diet were transferred into milk with a mean marginal transfer efficiency of 1.8%. Proportionate changes in milk fatty acid composition were greater in the Jersey, highlighting the importance of diet–genotype interactions on mammary lipogenesis. More extensive studies are required to determine the role of genotype on milk fat composition responses to oilseeds in the diet.

2,2-Dialkyl-2H-benzimidazoles, the high energy tautomers of the corresponding 1,2-dialkyl-1H-benzimidazoles. Syntheses and their complexes with Cu(I) and Ag(I)

Reaction of Cu(1,2-phenylenediamine)(2)(ClO4)(2) with neat RR'=O (R = methyl and/or ethyl) (lives Cu(2,2-dialkyl-2H-benzimidazole)ClO4. demetallation of which by the action of aqueous ammonia yields Pure 2,2-dialkyl-2H-benzimidazoles. These are characterised by NMR. hi the X-ray crystal Structure, Ag(2,2-methyl-2H-benzimi-dazolc)NO3 is Found to be a spiral 1D coordination polymer where the 2H-benzimidazole acts as an N,N bridge between two Ag(I) centus. Although 2H-benzimidazoles are very unstable in the free state, they are quite stable in their Cu(I)(1) and Ag(I) complexes. The 1,2-tautomerisation in imidazole and benzimidazole have been Studied by means of transition state calculations at B3LYP/6-3 11 +G(2d,p)* level.

Cultural phylogeography of the Bantu Languages of sub-Saharan Africa

There is disagreement about the routes taken by populations speaking Bantu languages as they expanded to cover much of sub-Saharan Africa. Here, we build phylogenetic trees of Bantu languages and map them onto geographical space in order to assess the likely pathway of expansion and test between dispersal scenarios. The results clearly support a scenario in which groups first moved south through the rainforest from a homeland somewhere near the Nigeria–Cameroon border. Emerging on the south side of the rainforest, one branch moved south and west. Another branch moved towards the Great Lakes, eventually giving rise to the monophyletic clade of East Bantu languages that inhabit East and Southeastern Africa. These phylogenies also reveal information about more general processes involved in the diversification of human populations into distinct ethnolinguistic groups. Our study reveals that Bantu languages show a latitudinal gradient in covering greater areas with increasing distance from the equator. Analyses suggest that this pattern reflects a true ecological relationship rather than merely being an artefact of shared history. The study shows how a phylogeographic approach can address questions relating to the specific histories of certain groups, as well as general cultural evolutionary processes.

Predictability of large interannual Arctic sea-ice anomalies

In projections of twenty-first century climate, Arctic sea ice declines and at the same time exhibits strong interannual anomalies. Here, we investigate the potential to predict these strong sea-ice anomalies under a perfect-model assumption, using the Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model in the same setup as in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). We study two cases of strong negative sea-ice anomalies: a 5-year-long anomaly for present-day conditions, and a 10-year-long anomaly for conditions projected for the middle of the twenty-first century. We treat these anomalies in the CMIP5 projections as the truth, and use exactly the same model configuration for predictions of this synthetic truth. We start ensemble predictions at different times during the anomalies, considering lagged-perfect and sea-ice-assimilated initial conditions. We find that the onset and amplitude of the interannual anomalies are not predictable. However, the further deepening of the anomaly can be predicted for typically 1 year lead time if predictions start after the onset but before the maximal amplitude of the anomaly. The magnitude of an extremely low summer sea-ice minimum is hard to predict: the skill of the prediction ensemble is not better than a damped-persistence forecast for lead times of more than a few months, and is not better than a climatology forecast for lead times of two or more years. Predictions of the present-day anomaly are more skillful than predictions of the mid-century anomaly. Predictions using sea-ice-assimilated initial conditions are competitive with those using lagged-perfect initial conditions for lead times of a year or less, but yield degraded skill for longer lead times. The results presented here suggest that there is limited prospect of predicting the large interannual sea-ice anomalies expected to occur throughout the twenty-first century.

A frequency-independent boundary element method for scattering by two-dimensional screens and apertures

We propose and analyse a hybrid numerical–asymptotic hp boundary element method (BEM) for time-harmonic scattering of an incident plane wave by an arbitrary collinear array of sound-soft two-dimensional screens. Our method uses an approximation space enriched with oscillatory basis functions, chosen to capture the high-frequency asymptotics of the solution. We provide a rigorous frequency-explicit error analysis which proves that the method converges exponentially as the number of degrees of freedom N increases, and that to achieve any desired accuracy it is sufficient to increase N in proportion to the square of the logarithm of the frequency as the frequency increases (standard BEMs require N to increase at least linearly with frequency to retain accuracy). Our numerical results suggest that fixed accuracy can in fact be achieved at arbitrarily high frequencies with a frequency-independent computational cost, when the oscillatory integrals required for implementation are computed using Filon quadrature. We also show how our method can be applied to the complementary ‘breakwater’ problem of propagation through an aperture in an infinite sound-hard screen.