Climate change and heat-related mortality in six cities Part 2: climate model evaluation and projected impacts from changes in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change

Previous assessments of the impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality use the "delta method" to create temperature projection time series that are applied to temperature-mortality models to estimate future mortality impacts. The delta method means that climate model bias in the modelled present does not influence the temperature projection time series and impacts. However, the delta method assumes that climate change will result only in a change in the mean temperature but there is evidence that there will also be changes in the variability of temperature with climate change. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the importance of considering changes in temperature variability with climate change in impacts assessments of future heat-related mortality. We investigate future heatrelated mortality impacts in six cities (Boston, Budapest, Dallas, Lisbon, London and Sydney) by applying temperature projections from the UK Meteorological Office HadCM3 climate model to the temperature-mortality models constructed and validated in Part 1. We investigate the impacts for four cases based on various combinations of mean and variability changes in temperature with climate change. The results demonstrate that higher mortality is attributed to increases in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change rather than with the change in mean temperature alone. This has implications for interpreting existing impacts estimates that have used the delta method. We present a novel method for the creation of temperature projection time series that includes changes in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change and is not influenced by climate model bias in the modelled present. The method should be useful for future impacts assessments. Few studies consider the implications that the limitations of the climate model may have on the heatrelated mortality impacts. Here, we demonstrate the importance of considering this by conducting an evaluation of the daily and extreme temperatures from HadCM3, which demonstrates that the estimates of future heat-related mortality for Dallas and Lisbon may be overestimated due to positive climate model bias. Likewise, estimates for Boston and London may be underestimated due to negative climate model bias. Finally, we briefly consider uncertainties in the impacts associated with greenhouse gas emissions and acclimatisation. The uncertainties in the mortality impacts due to different emissions scenarios of greenhouse gases in the future varied considerably by location. Allowing for acclimatisation to an extra 2°C in mean temperatures reduced future heat-related mortality by approximately half that of no acclimatisation in each city.

Layers of nocturnal insect migrants at high-altitude: the influence of atmospheric conditions on their formation

1 Radar studies of nocturnal insect migration have often found that the migrants tend to form well-defined horizontal layers at a particular altitude. 2 In previous short-term studies, nocturnal layers were usually observed to occur at the same altitude as certain meteorological features, most notably at the altitudes of temperature inversions or nocturnal wind jets. 3 Statistical analyses are presented of four years’ data that compared the presence, sharpness and duration of nocturnal layer profiles (observed using continuously-operating entomological radar) with meteorological variables at typical layer altitudes over the UK. 4 Analysis of these large datasets demonstrated that temperature was the foremost meteorological factor persistently associated with the presence and formation of longer-lasting and sharper layers of migrating insects over southern UK.

Modelling the global coastal ocean

Shelf and coastal seas are regions of exceptionally high biological productivity, high rates of biogeochemical cycling and immense socio-economic importance. They are, however, poorly represented by the present generation of Earth system models, both in terms of resolution and process representation. Hence, these models cannot be used to elucidate the role of the coastal ocean in global biogeochemical cycles and the effects global change (both direct anthropogenic and climatic) are having on them. Here, we present a system for simulating all the coastal regions around the world (the Global Coastal Ocean Modelling System) in a systematic and practical fashion. It is based on automatically generating multiple nested model domains, using the Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory Coastal Ocean Modelling System coupled to the European Regional Seas Ecosystem Model. Preliminary results from the system are presented. These demonstrate the viability of the concept, and we discuss the prospects for using the system to explore key areas of global change in shelf seas, such as their role in the carbon cycle and climate change effects on fisheries.

Projected impacts on heat-related mortality from changes in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change

The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the importance of changing temperature variability with climate change in assessments of future heat-related mortality. Previous studies have only considered changes in the mean temperature. Here we present estimates of heat-related mortality resulting from climate change for six cities: Boston, Budapest, Dallas, Lisbon, London and Sydney. They are based on climate change scenarios for the 2080s (2070-2099) and the temperature-mortality (t-m) models constructed and validated in Gosling et al. (2007). We propose a novel methodology for assessing the impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality that considers both changes in the mean and variability of the temperature distribution.

The influence of the atmospheric boundary layer on nocturnal layers of noctuids and other moths migrating over southern Britain

Insects migrating at high altitude over southern Britain have been continuously monitored by automatically-operating, vertical-looking radars over a period of several years. During some occasions in the summer months, the migrants were observed to form well-defined layer concentrations, typically at heights of 200-400 m, in the stable night-time atmosphere. Under these conditions, insects are likely to have control over their vertical movements and are selecting flight heights which are favourable for long-range migration. We therefore investigated the factors influencing the formation of these insect layers by comparing radar measurements of the vertical distribution of insect density with meteorological profiles generated by the UK Met. Office’s Unified Model (UM). Radar-derived measurements of mass and displacement speed, along with data from Rothamsted Insect Survey light traps provided information on the identity of the migrants. We present here three case studies where noctuid and pyralid moths contributed substantially to the observed layers. The major meteorological factors influencing the layer concentrations appeared to be: (a) the altitude of the warmest air, (b) heights corresponding to temperature preferences or thresholds for sustained migration and (c), on nights when air temperatures are relatively high, wind-speed maxima associated with the nocturnal jet. Back-trajectories indicated that layer duration may have been determined by the distance to the coast. Overall, the unique combination of meteorological data from the UM and insect data from entomological radar described here show considerable promise for systematic studies of high-altitude insect layering.

Effects of Delta9-tetrahydrocannabivarin on [35S]GTPgammaS binding in mouse brain cerebellum and piriform cortex membranes

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: We have recently shown that the phytocannabinoid Delta9-tetrahydrocannabivarin (Delta9-THCV) and the CB1 receptor antagonist AM251 increase inhibitory neurotransmission in mouse cerebellum and also exhibit anticonvulsant activity in a rat piriform cortical (PC) model of epilepsy. Possible mechanisms underlying cannabinoid actions in the CNS include CB1 receptor antagonism (by displacing endocannabinergic tone) or inverse agonism at constitutively active CB1 receptors. Here, we investigate the mode of cannabinoid action in [35S]GTPgammaS binding assays. EXPERIMENTAL APPROACH: Effects of Delta9-THCV and AM251 were tested either alone or against WIN55,212-2-induced increases in [35S]GTPgammaS binding in mouse cerebellar and PC membranes. Effects on non-CB receptor expressing CHO-D2 cell membranes were also investigated. KEY RESULTS :Delta9-THCV and AM251 both acted as potent antagonists of WIN55,212-2-induced increases in [35S]GTPgammaS binding in cerebellar and PC membranes (Delta9-THCV: pA2=7.62 and 7.44 respectively; AM251: pA2=9.93 and 9.88 respectively). At micromolar concentrations, Delta9-THCV or AM251 alone caused significant decreases in [35S]GTPgammaS binding; Delta9-THCV caused larger decreases than AM251. When applied alone in CHO-D2 membranes, Delta9-THCV and AM251 also caused concentration-related decreases in G protein activity. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: Delta9-THCV and AM251 act as CB1 receptors antagonists in the cerebellum and PC, with AM251 being more potent than Delta9-THCV in both brain regions. Individually, Delta9-THCV or AM251 exhibited similar potency at CB1 receptors in the cerebellum and the PC. At micromolar concentrations, Delta9-THCV and AM251 caused a non-CB receptor-mediated depression of basal [35S]GTPgammaS binding.

Cannabidiol displays antiepileptiform and antiseizure properties in vitro and in vivo

Plant-derived cannabinoids (phytocannabinoids) are compounds with emerging therapeutic potential. Early studies suggested that cannabidiol (CBD) has anticonvulsant properties in animal models and reduced seizure frequency in limited human trials. Here, we examine the anti-epileptiform and anti-seizure potential of CBD using in vitro electrophysiology and an in vivo animal seizure model, respectively. CBD (0.01-100 muM) effects were assessed in vitro using the Mg(2+)-free and 4-aminopyridine (4-AP) models of status epilepticus-like epileptiform activity in hippocampal brain slices via multi-electrode array (MEA) recordings. In the Mg(2+)-free model, CBD decreased epileptiform local field potential (LFP) burst amplitude (in CA1 and dentate gyrus (DG) regions) and burst duration (in all regions) and increased burst frequency (in all regions). In the 4-AP model, CBD decreased LFP burst amplitude (in CA1, only at 100 muM CBD), burst duration (in CA3 and DG), and burst frequency (in all regions). CBD (1, 10 and 100 mg/kg) effects were also examined in vivo using the pentylenetetrazole (PTZ) model of generalised seizures. CBD (100 mg/kg) exerted clear anticonvulsant effects with significant decreases in incidence of severe seizures and mortality in comparison to vehicle-treated animals. Finally, CBD acted with only low affinity at cannabinoid CB(1) receptors and displayed no agonist activity in [(35)S]GTPgammaS assays in cortical membranes. These findings suggest that CBD acts to inhibit epileptiform activity in vitro and seizure severity in vivo. Thus, we demonstrate the potential of CBD as a novel anti-epileptic drug (AED) in the unmet clinical need associated with generalised seizures.

The phytocannabinoid Delta(9)-tetrahydrocannabivarin modulates inhibitory neurotransmission in the cerebellum

Background and purposeThe phytocannabinoid Delta(9)-tetrahydrocannabivarin (Delta(9)-THCV) has been reported to exhibit a diverse pharmacology; here, we investigate functional effects of Delta(9)-THCV, extracted from Cannabis sativa, using electrophysiological techniques to define its mechanism of action in the CNS.Experimental approachEffects of Delta(9)-THCV and synthetic cannabinoid agents on inhibitory neurotransmission at interneurone-Purkinje cell (IN-PC) synapses were correlated with effects on spontaneous PC output using single-cell and multi-electrode array (MEA) electrophysiological recordings respectively, in mouse cerebellar brain slices in vitro.Key resultsThe cannabinoid receptor agonist WIN 55,212-2 (WIN55) decreased miniature inhibitory postsynaptic current (mIPSC) frequency at IN-PC synapses. WIN55-induced inhibition was reversed by Delta(9)-THCV, and also by the CB(1) receptor antagonist AM251; Delta(9)-THCV or AM251 acted to increase mIPSC frequency beyond basal values. When applied alone, Delta(9)-THCV, AM251 or rimonabant increased mIPSC frequency. Pre-incubation with Delta(9)-THCV blocked WIN55-induced inhibition. In MEA recordings, WIN55 increased PC spike firing rate; Delta(9)-THCV and AM251 acted in the opposite direction to decrease spike firing. The effects of Delta(9)-THCV and WIN55 were attenuated by the GABA(A) receptor antagonist bicuculline methiodide.Conclusions and implicationsWe show for the first time that Delta(9)-THCV acts as a functional CB(1) receptor antagonist in the CNS to modulate inhibitory neurotransmission at IN-PC synapses and spontaneous PC output. Delta(9)-THCV- and AM251-induced increases in mIPSC frequency beyond basal levels were consistent with basal CB(1) receptor activity. WIN55-induced increases in PC spike firing rate were consistent with synaptic disinhibition; whilst Delta(9)-THCV- and AM251-induced decreases in spike firing suggest a mechanism of PC inhibition.British Journal of Pharmacology advance online publication, 3 March 2008; doi:10.1038/bjp.2008.57.

Cholinergic modulation of intrinsic fibre-evoked excitatory transmission contains a nicotinic component in immature but not adult rat piriform cortex, in vitro

The piriform cortex (PC) is highly prone to epileptogenesis, particularly in immature animals, where decreased muscarinic modulation of PC intrinsic fibre excitatory neurotransmission is implicated as a likely cause. However, whether higher levels of acetylcholine (ACh) release occur in immature vs. adult PC remains unclear. We investigated this using in vitro extracellular electrophysiological recording techniques. Intrinsic fibre-evoked extracellular field potentials (EFPs) were recorded from layers II to III in PC brain slices prepared from immature (P14-18) and adult (P>40) rats. Adult and immature PC EFPs were suppressed by eserine (1muM) or neostigmine (1muM) application, with a greater suppression in immature ( approximately 40%) than adult ( approximately 30%) slices. Subsequent application of atropine (1muM) reversed EFP suppression, producing supranormal ( approximately 12%) recovery in adult slices, suggesting that suppression was solely muscarinic ACh receptor-mediated and that some 'basal' cholinergic 'tone' was present. Conversely, atropine only partially reversed anticholinesterase effects in immature slices, suggesting the presence of additional non-muscarinic modulation. Accordingly, nicotine (50muM) caused immature field suppression ( approximately 30%) that was further enhanced by neostigmine, whereas it had no effect on adult EFPs. Unlike atropine, nicotinic antagonists, mecamylamine and methyllycaconitine, induced immature supranormal field recovery ( approximately 20%) following anticholinesterase-induced suppression (with no effect on adult slices), confirming that basal cholinergic 'tone' was also present. We suggest that nicotinic inhibitory cholinergic modulation occurs in the immature rat PC intrinsic excitatory fibre system, possibly to complement the existing, weak muscarinic modulation, and could be another important developmentally regulated system governing immature PC susceptibility towards epileptogenesis.

Developmental changes in presynaptic muscarinic modulation of excitatory and inhibitory neurotransmission in rat piriform cortex in vitro: relevance to epileptiform bursting susceptibility

Suppression of depolarizing postsynaptic potentials and isolated GABA-A receptor-mediated fast inhibitory postsynaptic potentials by the muscarinic acetylcholine receptor agonist, oxotremorine-M (10 microM), was investigated in adult and immature (P14-P30) rat piriform cortical (PC) slices using intracellular recording. Depolarizing postsynaptic potentials evoked by layers II-III stimulation underwent concentration-dependent inhibition in oxotremorine-M that was most likely presynaptic and M2 muscarinic acetylcholine receptor-mediated in immature, but M1-mediated in adult (P40-P80) slices; percentage inhibition was smaller in immature than in adult piriform cortex. In contrast, compared with adults, layer Ia-evoked depolarizing postsynaptic potentials in immature piriform cortex slices in oxotremorine-M, showed a prolonged multiphasic depolarization with superimposed fast transients and spikes, and an increased 'all-or-nothing' character. Isolated N-methyl-d-aspartate receptor-mediated layer Ia depolarizing postsynaptic potentials (although significantly larger in immature slices) were however, unaffected by oxotremorine-M, but blocked by dl-2-amino-5-phosphonovaleric acid. Fast inhibitory postsynaptic potentials evoked by layer Ib or layers II-III-fiber stimulation in immature slices were significantly smaller than in adults, despite similar estimated mean reversal potentials ( approximately -69 and -70 mV respectively). In oxotremorine-M, only layer Ib-fast inhibitory postsynaptic potentials were suppressed; suppression was again most likely presynaptic M2-mediated in immature slices, but M1-mediated in adults. The degree of fast inhibitory postsynaptic potential suppression was however, greater in immature than in adult piriform cortex. Our results demonstrate some important physiological and pharmacological differences between excitatory and inhibitory synaptic systems in adult and immature piriform cortex that could contribute toward the increased susceptibility of this region to muscarinic agonist-induced epileptiform activity in immature brain slices.

Further characterization of muscarinic agonist-induced epileptiform bursting activity in immature rat piriform cortex, in vitro

The characteristics of muscarinic acetylcholine receptor agonist-induced epileptiform bursting seen in immature rat piriform cortex slices in vitro were further investigated using intracellular recording, with particular focus on its postnatal age-dependence (P+14-P+30), pharmacology, site(s) of origin and the likely contribution of the muscarinic acetylcholine receptor agonist-induced post-stimulus slow afterdepolarization and gap junction functionality toward its generation. The muscarinic agonist, oxotremorine-M (10 microM), induced rhythmic bursting only in immature piriform cortex slices; however, paroxysmal depolarizing shift amplitude, burst duration and burst incidence were inversely related to postnatal age. No significant age-dependent changes in neuronal membrane properties or postsynaptic muscarinic responsiveness accounted for this decline. Burst incidence was higher when recorded in anterior and posterior regions of the immature piriform cortex. In adult and immature neurones, oxotremorine-M effects were abolished by M1-, but not M2-muscarinic acetylcholine receptor-selective antagonists. Rostrocaudal lesions, between piriform cortex layers I and II, or layer III and endopiriform nucleus in adult or immature slices did not influence oxotremorine-M effects; however, the slow afterdepolarization in adult (but not immature) lesioned slices was abolished. Gap junction blockers (carbenoxolone or octanol) disrupted muscarinic bursting and diminished the slow afterdepolarization in immature slices, suggesting that gap junction connectivity was important for bursting. Our data show that neural networks within layers II-III function as primary oscillatory circuits for burst initiation in immature rat piriform cortex during persistent muscarinic receptor activation. Furthermore, we propose that muscarinic slow afterdepolarization induction and gap junction communication could contribute towards the increased epileptiform susceptibility of this brain area.

A novel component of cannabis extract potentiates excitatory synaptic transmission in rat olfactory cortex in vitro

Cannabis is a potential treatment for epilepsy, although the few human studies supporting this use have proved inconclusive. Previously, we showed that a standardized cannabis extract (SCE), isolated Delta(9)-tetrahydrocannabinol (Delta(9)-THC), and even Delta(9)-THC-free SCE inhibited muscarinic agonist-induced epileptiform bursting in rat olfactory cortical brain slices, acting via CB1 receptors. The present work demonstrates that although Delta(9)-THC (1microM) significantly depressed evoked depolarizing postsynaptic potentials (PSPs) in rat olfactory cortex neurones, both SCE and Delta(9)-THC-free SCE significantly potentiated evoked PSPs (all results were fully reversed by the CB1 receptor antagonist SR141716A, 1microM); interestingly, the potentiation by Delta(9)-THC-free SCE was greater than that produced by SCE. On comparing the effects of Delta(9)-THC-free SCE upon evoked PSPs and artificial PSPs (aPSPs; evoked electrotonically following brief intracellular current injection), PSPs were enhanced, whereas aPSPs were unaffected, suggesting that the effect was not due to changes in background input resistance. Similar recordings made using CB1 receptor-deficient knockout mice (CB1(-/-)) and wild-type littermate controls revealed cannabinoid or extract-induced changes in membrane resistance, cell excitability and synaptic transmission in wild-type mice that were similar to those seen in rat neurones, but no effect on these properties were seen in CB1(-/-) cells. It appears that the unknown extract constituent(s) effects over-rode the suppressive effects of Delta(9)-THC on excitatory neurotransmitter release, which may explain some patients' preference for herbal cannabis rather than isolated Delta(9)-THC (due to attenuation of some of the central Delta(9)-THC side effects) and possibly account for the rare incidence of seizures in some individuals taking cannabis recreationally