Heliospheric modulation of galactic cosmic rays during grand solar minima: past and future variations

Galactic cosmic ray flux at Earth is modulated by the heliospheric magnetic field. Heliospheric modulation potential, Φ, during grand solar minima is investigated using an open solar flux (OSF) model with OSF source based on sunspot number, R, and OSF loss on heliospheric current sheet inclination. Changing dominance between source and loss means Φ varies in- (anti-) phase with R during strong (weak) cycles, in agreement with Φ estimates from ice core records of 10Be concentration, which are in-phase during most of the last 300 years, but anti-phase during the Maunder Minimum. Model results suggest “flat” OSF cycles, such as solar cycle 20 result from OSF source and loss terms temporarily balancing throughout the cycle. Thus even if solar activity continues to decline steadily, the long-term drop in OSF through SC21 to SC23 may plateau during SC24, though reemerge in SC25 with the inverted phase relation.

Simulation of monsoon disturbances in the LMD GCM

The monsoon depressions that form over India during the summer are analyzed using simulations from the Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique general circulation model. This type of synoptic system often occurs with a frequency of one to two per month and can produce a strong Indian rainfall. Two kinds of analyses are conducted in this study. The first one is a subjective analysis based on the evolution of the precipitation rate and the pattern of the sea level pressure. The second one is an objective analysis performed using the TRACK program, which identifies and tracks the minima in the sea level pressure anomaly held and computes the statistics for the distribution of systems. The analysis of a 9-yr control run, which simulates strong precipitation rates over the foothills of the Himalayas and over southern India but weak rates over central India, shows that the number of disturbances is coo low and that they almost never occur during August, when break conditions prevail. The generated disturbances more often move north, toward the foothills of the Himalayas. Another analysis is performed to study the effect of the Tibetan Plateau elevation on these disturbances with a 9-yr run carried out with a Tibetan Plateau at 50% of its current height. It is shown that this later integration simulates more frequent monsoon disturbances, which move rather northwestward, in agreement with the current observations. The comparison between the two runs shows that the June-July-August rainfall difference is in large part due to changes in the occurrence of the monsoon disturbances.

Relative humidity changes in a warmer climate

Key climate feedbacks due to water vapor and clouds rest largely on how relative humidity R changes in a warmer climate, yet this has not been extensively analyzed in models. General circulation models (GCMs) from the CMIP3 archive and several higher resolution atmospheric GCMs examined here generally predict a characteristic pattern of R trend with global temperature that has been reported previously in individual models, including increase around the tropopause, decrease in the tropical upper troposphere, and decrease in midlatitudes. This pattern is very similar to that previously reported for cloud cover in the same GCMs, confirming the role of R in controlling changes in simulated cloud. Comparing different models, the trend in each part of the troposphere is approximately proportional to the upward and/or poleward gradient of R in the present climate. While this suggests that the changes simply reflect a shift of the R pattern upward with the tropopause and poleward with the zonal jets, the drying trend in the subtropics is roughly three times too large to be attributable to shifts of subtropical features, and the subtropical R minima deepen in most models. R trends are correlated with horizontal model resolution, especially outside the tropics, where they show signs of convergence and latitudinal gradients become close to available observations for GCM resolutions near T85 and higher. We argue that much of the systematic change in R can be explained by the local specific humidity having been set (by condensation) in remote regions with different temperature changes, hence the gradients and trends each depend on a model’s ability to resolve moisture transport. Finally, subtropical drying trends predicted from the warming alone fall well short of those observed in recent decades. While this discrepancy supports previous reports of GCMs underestimating Hadley Cell expansion, our results imply that shifts alone are not a sufficient interpretation of changes.

A record of Holocene climate change from lake geochemical analyses in southeastern Arabia

Lacustrine sediments from southeastern Arabia reveal variations in lake level corresponding to changes in the strength and duration of Indian Ocean Monsoon (IOM) summer rainfall and winter cyclonic rainfall. The late glacial/Holocene transition of the region was characterised by the development of mega-linear dunes. These dunes became stabilised and vegetated during the early Holocene and interdunal lakes formed in response to the incursion of the IOM at approximately 8500 cal yr BP with the development of C3 dominated savanna grasslands. The IOM weakened ca. 6000 cal yr BP with the onset of regional aridity, aeolian sedimentation and dune reactivation and accretion. Despite this reduction in precipitation, the take was maintained by winter dominated rainfall. There was a shift to drier adapted C4 grasslands across the dune field. Lake sediment geochemical analyses record precipitation minima at 8200, 5000 and 4200 cal yr BP that coincide with Bond events in the North Atlantic. A number of these events correspond with changes in cultural periods, suggesting that climate was a key mechanism affecting human occupation and exploitation of this region. (c) 2006 University of Washington. All rights reserved.

The variation of solar wind correlation lengths over three solar cycles

We present the results of a study of solar wind velocity and magnetic field correlation lengths over the last 35 years. The correlation length of the magnetic field magnitude λ | B| increases on average by a factor of two at solar maxima compared to solar minima. The correlation lengths of the components of the magnetic field λ_{B_{XYZ}} and of the velocity λ_{V_{YZ}} do not show this change and have similar values, indicating a continual turbulent correlation length of around 1.4×106 km. We conclude that a linear relation between λ | B|, VB 2, and Kp suggests that the former is related to the total magnetic energy in the solar wind and an estimate of the average size of geoeffective structures, which is, in turn, proportional to VB 2. By looking at the distribution of daily correlation lengths we show that the solar minimum values of λ | B| correspond to the turbulent outer scale. A tail of larger λ | B| values is present at solar maximum causing the increase in mean value.

Conservation of open solar magnetic flux and the floor in the heliospheric magnetic field

The near-Earth heliospheric magnetic field intensity, |B|, exhibits a strong solar cycle variation, but returns to the same ``floor'' value each solar minimum. The current minimum, however, has seen |B| drop below previous minima, bringing in to question the existence of a floor, or at the very least requiring a re-assessment of its value. In this study we assume heliospheric flux consists of a constant open flux component and a time-varying contribution from CMEs. In this scenario, the true floor is |B| with zero CME contribution. Using observed CME rates over the solar cycle, we estimate the ``no-CME'' |B| floor at ~4.0 +/- 0.3 nT, lower than previous floor estimates and below |B| observed this solar minimum. We speculate that the drop in |B| observed this minimum may be due to a persistently lower CME rate than the previous minimum, though there are large uncertainties in the supporting observational data.

Improving flood models using LiDAR: progress and problems

Airborne scanning laser altimetry (LiDAR) is an important new data source for river flood modelling. LiDAR can give dense and accurate DTMs of floodplains for use as model bathymetry. Spatial resolutions of 0.5m or less are possible, with a height accuracy of 0.15m. LiDAR gives a Digital Surface Model (DSM), so vegetation removal software (e.g. TERRASCAN) must be used to obtain a DTM. An example used to illustrate the current state of the art will be the LiDAR data provided by the EA, which has been processed by their in-house software to convert the raw data to a ground DTM and separate vegetation height map. Their method distinguishes trees from buildings on the basis of object size. EA data products include the DTM with or without buildings removed, a vegetation height map, a DTM with bridges removed, etc. Most vegetation removal software ignores short vegetation less than say 1m high. We have attempted to extend vegetation height measurement to short vegetation using local height texture. Typically most of a floodplain may be covered in such vegetation. The idea is to assign friction coefficients depending on local vegetation height, so that friction is spatially varying. This obviates the need to calibrate a global floodplain friction coefficient. It’s not clear at present if the method is useful, but it’s worth testing further. The LiDAR DTM is usually determined by looking for local minima in the raw data, then interpolating between these to form a space-filling height surface. This is a low pass filtering operation, in which objects of high spatial frequency such as buildings, river embankments and walls may be incorrectly classed as vegetation. The problem is particularly acute in urban areas. A solution may be to apply pattern recognition techniques to LiDAR height data fused with other data types such as LiDAR intensity or multispectral CASI data. We are attempting to use digital map data (Mastermap structured topography data) to help to distinguish buildings from trees, and roads from areas of short vegetation. The problems involved in doing this will be discussed. A related problem of how best to merge historic river cross-section data with a LiDAR DTM will also be considered. LiDAR data may also be used to help generate a finite element mesh. In rural area we have decomposed a floodplain mesh according to taller vegetation features such as hedges and trees, so that e.g. hedge elements can be assigned higher friction coefficients than those in adjacent fields. We are attempting to extend this approach to urban area, so that the mesh is decomposed in the vicinity of buildings, roads, etc as well as trees and hedges. A dominant points algorithm is used to identify points of high curvature on a building or road, which act as initial nodes in the meshing process. A difficulty is that the resulting mesh may contain a very large number of nodes. However, the mesh generated may be useful to allow a high resolution FE model to act as a benchmark for a more practical lower resolution model. A further problem discussed will be how best to exploit data redundancy due to the high resolution of the LiDAR compared to that of a typical flood model. Problems occur if features have dimensions smaller than the model cell size e.g. for a 5m-wide embankment within a raster grid model with 15m cell size, the maximum height of the embankment locally could be assigned to each cell covering the embankment. But how could a 5m-wide ditch be represented? Again, this redundancy has been exploited to improve wetting/drying algorithms using the sub-grid-scale LiDAR heights within finite elements at the waterline.

Estimating oceanic heat content change using isotherms

This paper presents a new analysis of ocean heat content changes over the last 50 yr using isotherms by calculating the mean temperature above the 148C isotherm and the depth of the 148C isotherm as separate variables. A new quantity called the ‘‘relative heat content’’ (‘‘RHC’’) is introduced, which represents the minimum local heat content change over time, relative to a fixed isotherm. It is shown how mean temperature and isotherm depth changes make separable and additive contributions to changes in RHC. Maps of RHC change between 1970 and 2000 show similar spatial patterns to a traditional fixed-depth ocean heat content change to 220 m. However, the separate contributions to RHC suggest a more spatially uniform contribution from warming above the isotherm, while isotherm depth changes show wind-driven signals, of which some are identifiable as being related to the North Atlantic Oscillation. The time series show that the warming contribution to RHC dominates the global trend, while the depth contribution only dominates on the basin scale in the North Atlantic. The RHC shows minima associated with the major volcanic eruptions (particularly in the Indian Ocean), and these are entirely contributed by mean temperature changes rather than isotherm depth changes. The depth change contributions to RHC are strongly affected by the recently reported XBT fall-rate bias, whereas the mean temperature contributions are not. Therefore, only the isotherm depth change contributions toRHCwill need to be reassessed as fall-rate-corrected data become available.

Analytical potentials for triatomic molecules from spectroscopic data V. Application to HOX (X=F, Cl, Br, I)

Analytical potential energy functions are reported for HOX (X=F, Cl, Br, I). The surface for HOF predicts two metastable minima as well as the equilibrium configuration. These correspond to HFO (bent) and OHF (linear). Ab initio calculations performed for the HOF surface confirm these predictions. Comparisons are drawn between the two sets of results, and a vibrational analysis is undertaken for the hydrogen bonded OHF species. For HOCl, one further minimum is predicted, corresponding to HClO (bent), the parameters for which compare favourably with those reported from ab initio studies. In contrast, only the equilibrium configurations are predicted to be stable for HOBr and HOI.

Analytical potentials for triatomic molecules from spectroscopic data VI. On choosing internal coordinates to describe triatomic potential energy surfaces with more than one minimum

Orthogonal internal coordinates are defined which have useful properties for constructing the potential energy functions of triatomic molecules with two or three minima on the surface. The coordinates are used to obtain ground state potentials of ClOO and HOF, both of which have three minima.

A benchmark method for global optimization problems in structure determination from powder diffraction data

Quasi-Newton-Raphson minimization and conjugate gradient minimization have been used to solve the crystal structures of famotidine form B and capsaicin from X-ray powder diffraction data and characterize the chi(2) agreement surfaces. One million quasi-Newton-Raphson minimizations found the famotidine global minimum with a frequency of ca 1 in 5000 and the capsaicin global minimum with a frequency of ca 1 in 10 000. These results, which are corroborated by conjugate gradient minimization, demonstrate the existence of numerous pathways from some of the highest points on these chi(2) agreement surfaces to the respective global minima, which are passable using only downhill moves. This important observation has significant ramifications for the development of improved structure determination algorithms.

An investigation of the germylene addition reaction, GeH2+C2H2: Time-resolved gas-phase kinetic studies and quantum chemical calculations of the reaction energy surface

Time resolved studies of germylene, GeH2, generated by laser flash photolysis of 3,4-dimethylgermacyclopentene-3, have been carried out to obtain rate constants for its bimolecular reaction with acetylene, C2H2. The reaction was studied in the gas-phase over the pressure range 1-100 Tort, with SF6 as bath gas, at 5 temperatures in the range 297-553 K. The reaction showed a very slight pressure dependence at higher temperatures. The high pressure rate constants (obtained by extrapolation at the three higher temperatures) gave the Arrhenius equation: log(k(infinity)/cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1)) (-10.94 +/- 0.05) + (6.10 +/- 0.36 kJ mol(-1))/RTln10. These Arrhenius parameters are consistent with a fast reaction occurring at approximately 30% of the collision rate at 298 K. Quantum chemical calculations (both DFT and ab initio G2//B3LYP and G2//QCISD) of the GeC2H4 potential energy surface (PES), show that GeH2 + C2H2 react initially to form germirene which can isomerise to vinylgermylene with a relatively low barrier. RRKM modelling, based on a loose association transition state, but assuming vinylgermylene is the end product (used in combination with a weak collisional deactivation model) predicts a strong pressure dependence using the calculated energies, in conflict with the experimental evidence. The detailed GeC2H4 PES shows considerable complexity with ten other accessible stable minima (B3LYP level), the three most stable of which are all germylenes. Routes through this complex surface were examined in detail. The only product combination which appears capable of satisfying the (P-3) + C2H4.C2H4 was confirmed as a product by GC observed lack of a strong pressure dependence is Ge(P-3) + C2H4. C2H4 was confirmed as a product by GC analysis. Although the formation of these products are shown to be possible by singlet-triplet curve crossing during dissociation of 1-germiranylidene (1-germacyclopropylidene), it seems more likely (on thermochernical grounds) that the triplet biradical, (GeCH2CH2.)-Ge-., is the immediate product precursor. Comparisons are made with the reaction of SiH2 with C2H2.

Search space pruning and global optimization of multiple gravity assist trajectories with deep space manoeuvres

This paper deals with the design of optimal multiple gravity assist trajectories with deep space manoeuvres. A pruning method which considers the sequential nature of the problem is presented. The method locates feasible vectors using local optimization and applies a clustering algorithm to find reduced bounding boxes which can be used in a subsequent optimization step. Since multiple local minima remain within the pruned search space, the use of a global optimization method, such as Differential Evolution, is suggested for finding solutions which are likely to be close to the global optimum. Two case studies are presented.

Ferric and ferrous iron in nitroso-myoglobin: computer simulations of stable and metastable states and their infrared spectra

The binding of NO to iron is involved in the biological function of many heme proteins. Contrary to ligands like CO and O-2, which only bind to ferrous (Fe-II) iron, NO binds to both ferrous and ferric (Fe-II) iron. In a particular protein, the natural oxidation state can therefore be expected to be tailored to the required function. Herein, we present an ob initio potential-energy surface for ferric iron interacting with NO. This potential-energy surface exhibits three minima corresponding to eta'-NO coordination (the global minimum), eta(1)-ON coordination and eta(2) coordination. This contrasts with the potential-energy surface for Fe-II-NO, which ex- hibits only two minima (the eta(2) coordination mode for Fe-II is a transition state, not a minimum). In addition, the binding energies of NO are substantially larger for Fe-III than for Fe-II. We have performed molecular dynamics simulations for NO bound to ferric myoglobin (Mb(III)) and compare these with results obtained for Mb(II). Over the duration of our simulations (1.5 ns), all three binding modes are found to be stable at 200 K and transiently stable at 300 K, with eventual transformation to the eta(1)-NO global-minimum conformation. We discuss the implication of these results related to studies of rebinding processes in myoglobin.