Evaluation of the cumulative evidence for freedom from BSE in birth cohorts

Substantial resources are used for surveillance of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) despite an extremely low detection rate, especially in healthy slaughtered cattle. We have developed a method based on the geometric waiting time distribution to establish and update the statistical evidence for BSE-freedom for defined birth cohorts using continued surveillance data. The results suggest that currently (data included till September 2004) a birth cohort of Danish cattle born after March 1999 is free from BSE with probability (power) of 0.8746 or 0.8509, depending on the choice of a model for the diagnostic sensitivity. These results apply to an assumed design prevalence of 1 in 10,000 and account for prevalence heterogeneity. The age-dependent, diagnostic sensitivity for the detection of BSE has been identified as major determinant of the power. The incorporation of heterogeneity was deemed adequate on scientific grounds and led to improved power values. We propose our model as a decision tool for possible future modification of the BSE surveillance and discuss public health and international trade implications.

Development of the mammalian urethra is controlled by Fgfr2-IIIb

Development of external genitalia in mammalian embryos requires tight coordination of a complex series of morphogenetic events involving outgrowth, proximodistal and dorsoventral patterning, and epithelial tubulogenesis. Hypospadias is a congenital defect of the external genitalia that results from failure of urethral tube closure. Although this is the second most common birth defect in humans, affecting one in every 250 children, the molecular mechanisms that regulate morphogenesis of the mammalian urethra are poorly understood. We report that mice lacking the IIIb isoform of fibroblast growth factor receptor 2 (Fgfr2) exhibit severe hypospadias. Urethral signaling regions, as indicated by Shh and Fgf8 expression, are established in Fgfr2-IIIb null mice; however, cell proliferation arrests prematurely and maturation of the urethral epithelium is disrupted. Fgfr2-IIIb(-/-) mutants fail to maintain the progenitor cell population required for uroepithelial renewal during tubular morphogenesis. In addition, we show that antagonism of the androgen receptor (AR) leads to loss of Fgfr2-IIIb and Fgf10 expression in the urethra, and an associated hypospadias phenotype, suggesting that these genes are downstream targets of AR during external genital development. Genitourinary defects resulting from disruption of AR activity, by either genetic or environmental factors, may therefore involve negative regulation of the Fgfr2 pathway. This represents the first example of how the developing genitourinary system integrates cues from systemically circulating steroid hormones with a locally expressed growth factor pathway.

Demographic models and the management of endangered species: a case study of the critically endangered Seychelles magpie robin

1. Demographic models are assuming an important role in management decisions for endangered species. Elasticity analysis and scope for management analysis are two such applications. Elasticity analysis determines the vital rates that have the greatest impact on population growth. Scope for management analysis examines the effects that feasible management might have on vital rates and population growth. Both methods target management in an attempt to maximize population growth. 2. The Seychelles magpie robin Copsychus sechellarum is a critically endangered island endemic, the population of which underwent significant growth in the early 1990s following the implementation of a recovery programme. We examined how the formal use of elasticity and scope for management analyses might have shaped management in the recovery programme, and assessed their effectiveness by comparison with the actual population growth achieved. 3. The magpie robin population doubled from about 25 birds in 1990 to more than 50 by 1995. A simple two-stage demographic model showed that this growth was driven primarily by a significant increase in the annual survival probability of first-year birds and an increase in the birth rate. Neither the annual survival probability of adults nor the probability of a female breeding at age 1 changed significantly over time. 4. Elasticity analysis showed that the annual survival probability of adults had the greatest impact on population growth. There was some scope to use management to increase survival, but because survival rates were already high (> 0.9) this had a negligible effect on population growth. Scope for management analysis showed that significant population growth could have been achieved by targeting management measures at the birth rate and survival probability of first-year birds, although predicted growth rates were lower than those achieved by the recovery programme when all management measures were in place (i.e. 1992-95). 5. Synthesis and applications. We argue that scope for management analysis can provide a useful basis for management but will inevitably be limited to some extent by a lack of data, as our study shows. This means that identifying perceived ecological problems and designing management to alleviate them must be an important component of endangered species management. The corollary of this is that it will not be possible or wise to consider only management options for which there is a demonstrable ecological benefit. Given these constraints, we see little role for elasticity analysis because, when data are available, a scope for management analysis will always be of greater practical value and, when data are lacking, precautionary management demands that as many perceived ecological problems as possible are tackled.

Are differences in life history parameters of the pine beauty moth Panolis flammea modified by host plant quality or gender?

Pine beauty moth (Panolis flammea D&S, Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) were reared individually from egg hatch to pupation on one of three host plants, Pinus sylvestris (native host plant), Pinus contorta (Central Interior seed origin - good quality introduced host) and P. contorta (Alaskan seed origin - poor quality introduced host). After emerging from the pupae the adult moths were confined to a Skeena River seed origin of P. contorta. Female pupal weight and adult life span were significantly higher on P. sylvestris than on the two lodgepole pine seed origins. Development time was, however, not significantly different between treatments, but larval mean relative growth rate was found to be negatively correlated with birth weight and positively correlated with pupal weight. The time to emerge from the pupa was also not significantly different between treatments. However, there were marked differences between the genders. Male moths lost a significantly greater proportion of their weight over the pupal stage but lived significantly longer as adults than the females. Female moths emerged from the pupal stage significantly sooner than male moths. There was no apparent advantage of lai-ge birth size when looked at in terms of subsequent performance. These results are discussed in light of current life history theory.

Longitudinal investigation of the faecal microbiota of healthy full-term infants using fluorescence in situ hybridization and denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis.

From birth onwards, the gastrointestinal (GI) tract of infants progressively acquires a complex range of micro-organisms. It is thought that by 2 years of age the GI microbial population has stabilized. Within the developmental period of the infant GI microbiota, weaning is considered to be most critical, as the infant switches from a milk-based diet (breast and/or formula) to a variety of food components. Longitudinal analysis of the biological succession of the infant GI/faecal microbiota is lacking. In this study, faecal samples were obtained regularly from 14 infants from 1 month to 18 months of age. Seven of the infants (including a set of twins) were exclusively breast-fed and seven were exclusively formula-fed prior to weaning, with 175 and 154 faecal samples, respectively, obtained from each group. Diversity and dynamics of the infant faecal microbiota were analysed by using fluorescence in situ hybridization and denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis. Overall, the data demonstrated large inter- and intra-individual differences in the faecal microbiological profiles during the study period. However, the infant faecal microbiota merged with time towards a climax community within and between feeding groups. Data from the twins showed the highest degree of similarity both quantitatively and qualitatively. Inter-individual variation was evident within the infant faecal microbiota and its development, even within exclusively formula-fed infants receiving the same diet. These data can be of help to future clinical trials (e.g. targeted weaning products) to organize protocols and obtain a more accurate outline of the changes and dynamics of the infant GI microbiota.

A prospective longitudinal study of the impact of early postnatal vs. chronic maternal depressive symptoms on child development

Background Few studies of the effects of postnatal depression on child development have considered the chronicity of depressive symptoms. We investigated whether early postnatal depressive symptoms (PNDS) predicted child developmental outcome independently of later maternal depressive symptoms. Methods In a prospective, longitudinal study, mothers and children were followed-up from birth to 2 years; repeated measures of PNDS were made using the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS); child development was assessed using the Bayley Scales II. Multilevel modelling techniques were used to examine the association between 6 week PNDS, and child development, taking subsequent depressive symptoms into account. Results Children of mothers with 6 week PNDS were significantly more likely than children of non-symptomatic mothers to have poor cognitive outcome; however, this association was reduced to trend level when adjusted for later maternal depressive symptoms. Conclusion Effects of early PNDS on infant development may be partly explained by subsequent depressive symptoms.

Gradients of the intergenerational transmission of health in developing countries

This paper investigates sensitivity of the intergenerational transmission of health to changes in the socioeconomic and public health environment into which children are born using individual survey data on 2.24 million children born to 600000 mothers during 1970-2000 in 38 developing countries merged by country and cohort with macroeconomic data. We find that children are more likely to bear the penalty exerted by poor maternal health if they are conceived or born in adverse socioeconomic conditions. Equivalently, shocks to the child’s birth environment are more damaging of children born to women with a weaker stock of health at birth.

Neonatal environment exerts a sustained influence on the development of the intestinal microbiota and metabolic phenotype

The postnatal environment, including factors such as weaning and acquisition of the gut microbiota, has been causally linked to the development of later immunological diseases such as allergy and autoimmunity, and has also been associated with a predisposition to metabolic disorders. We show that the very early-life environment influences the development of both the gut microbiota and host metabolic phenotype in a porcine model of human infants. Farmpiglets were nursed by their mothers for 1 day, before removal to highly controlled, individual isolators where they received formula milk until weaning at 21 days. The experiment was repeated, to create two batches, which differed only in minor environmental fluctuations during the first day. At day 1 after birth, metabolic profiling of serum by 1H nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy demonstrated significant, systemic, inter-batch variation which persisted until weaning. However, the urinary metabolic profiles demonstrated that significant inter-batch effects on 3-hydroxyisovalerate, trimethylamine-N-oxide and mannitol persisted beyond weaning to at least 35 days. Batch effects were linked to significant differences in the composition of colonic microbiota at 35 days, determined by 16 S pyrosequencing. Different weaning diets modulated both the microbiota and metabolic phenotype independently of the persistent batch effects. We demonstrate that the environment during the first day of life influences development of the microbiota and metabolic phenotype and thus should be taken into account when interrogating experimental outcomes. In addition, we suggest that intervention at this early time could provide ‘metabolic rescue’ for at-risk infants who have undergone aberrant patterns of initial intestinal colonisation.