Developmental changes in the germinability, desiccation tolerance, hardseededness, and longevity of individual seeds of Trifolium ambiguum

Background and Aims: Using two parental clones of outcrossing Trifolium ambiguum as a potential model system, we examined how during seed development the maternal parent, number of seeds per pod, seed position within the pod, and pod position within the inflorescence influenced individual seed fresh weight, dry weight, water content, germinability, desiccation tolerance, hardseededness, and subsequent longevity of individual seeds. Methods: Near simultaneous, manual reciprocal crosses were carried out between clonal lines for two experiments. Infructescences were harvested at intervals during seed development. Each individual seed was weighed and then used to determine dry weight or one of the physiological behaviour traits. Key Results: Whilst population mass maturity was reached at 33–36 days after pollination (DAP), seed-to-seed variation in maximum seed dry weight, when it was achieved, and when maturation drying commenced, was considerable. Individual seeds acquired germinability between 14 and 44 DAP, desiccation tolerance between 30 and 40 DAP, and the capability to become hardseeded between 30 and 47 DAP. The time for viability to fall to 50 % (p50) at 60 % relative humidity and 45 °C increased between 36 and 56 DAP, when the seed coats of most individuals had become dark orange, but declined thereafter. Individual seed f. wt at harvest did not correlate with air-dry storage survival period. Analysing survival data for cohorts of seeds reduced the standard deviation of the normal distribution of seed deaths in time, but no sub-population showed complete uniformity of survival period. Conclusions: Variation in individual seed behaviours within a developing population is inherent and inevitable. In this outbreeder, there is significant variation in seed longevity which appears dependent on embryo genotype with little effect of maternal genotype or architectural factors.

Atmospheric conservation properties in ERA-Interim

We study the global atmospheric budgets of mass, moisture, energy and angular momentum in the latest reanalysis from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), ERA-Interim, for the period 1989–2008 and compare with ERA-40. Most of the measures we use indicate that the ERA-Interim reanalysis is superior in quality to ERA-40. In ERA-Interim the standard deviation of the monthly mean global dry mass of 0.7 kg m−2 (0.007%) is slightly worse than in ERA-40, and long time-scale variations in dry mass originate predominately in the surface pressure field. The divergent winds are improved in ERA-Interim: the global standard deviation of the time-averaged dry mass budget residual is 10 kg m−2 day−1 and the quality of the cross-equatorial mass fluxes is improved. The temporal variations in the global evaporation minus precipitation (E − P) are too large but the global moisture budget residual is 0.003 kg m−2 day−1 with a spatial standard deviation of 0.3 kg m−2 day−1. Both the E − P over ocean and P − E over land are about 15% larger than the 1.1 Tg s−1 transport of water from ocean to land. The top of atmosphere (TOA) net energy losses are improved, with a value of 1 W m−2, but the meridional gradient of the TOA net energy flux is smaller than that from the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) data. At the surface the global energy losses are worse, with a value of 7 W m−2. Over land however, the energy loss is only 0.5 W m−2. The downwelling thermal radiation at the surface in ERA-Interim of 341 W m−2 is towards the higher end of previous estimates. The global mass-adjusted energy budget residual is 8 W m−2 with a spatial standard deviation of 11 W m−2, and the mass-adjusted atmospheric energy transport from low to high latitudes (the sum for the two hemispheres) is 9.5 PW

The impact of 21st century Arctic sea ice decline on the climate and mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet and Svalbard’s glaciers and ice caps

The Arctic is a region particularly susceptible to rapid climate change. General circulation models (GCMs) suggest a polar amplification of any global warming signal by a factor of about 1.5 due, in part, to sea ice feedbacks. The dramatic recent decline in multi-year sea ice cover lies outside the standard deviation of the CMIP3 ensemble GCM predictions. Sea ice acts as a barrier between cold air and warmer oceans during winter, as well as inhibiting evaporation from the ocean surface water during the summer. An ice free Arctic would likely have an altered hydrological cycle with more evaporation from the ocean surface leading to changes in precipitation distribution and amount. Using the U.K. Met Office Regional Climate Model (RCM), HadRM3, the atmospheric effects of the observed and projected reduction in Arctic sea ice are investigated. The RCM is driven by the atmospheric GCM HadAM3. Both models are forced with sea surface temperature and sea ice for the period 2061-2090 from the CMIP3 HadGEM1 experiments. Here we use an RCM at 50km resolution over the Arctic and 25km over Svalbard, which captures well the present-day pattern of precipitation and provides a detailed picture of the projected changes in the behaviour of the oceanic-atmosphere moisture fluxes and how they affect precipitation. These experiments show that the projected 21stCentury sea ice decline alone causes large impacts to the surface mass balance (SMB) on Svalbard. However Greenland’s SMB is not significantly affected by sea ice decline alone, but responds with a strongly negative shift in SMB when changes to SST are incorporated into the experiments. This is the first study to characterise the impact of changes in future sea ice to Arctic terrestrial cryosphere mass balance.

A cross-calibration of chlorine isotopic measurements and suitability of seawater as the international reference material

A collection of 24 seawaters from various worldwide locations and differing depth was culled to measure their chlorine isotopic composition (delta(37)Cl). These samples cover all the oceans and large seas: Atlantic, Pacific, Indian and Antarctic oceans, Mediterranean and Red seas. This collection includes nine seawaters from three depth profiles down to 4560 mbsl. The standard deviation (2sigma) of the delta(37)Cl of this collection is +/-0.08 parts per thousand, which is in fact as large as our precision of measurement ( +/- 0.10 parts per thousand). Thus, within error, oceanic waters seem to be an homogeneous reservoir. According to our results, any seawater could be representative of Standard Mean Ocean Chloride (SMOC) and could be used as a reference standard. An extended international cross-calibration over a large range of delta(37)Cl has been completed. For this purpose, geological fluid samples of various chemical compositions and a manufactured CH3Cl gas sample, with delta(37)Cl from about -6 parts per thousand to +6 parts per thousand have been compared. Data were collected by gas source isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) at the Paris, Reading and Utrecht laboratories and by thermal ionization mass spectrometry (TIMS) at the Leeds laboratory. Comparison of IRMS values over the range -5.3 parts per thousand to +1.4 parts per thousand plots on the Y=X line, showing a very good agreement between the three laboratories. On 11 samples, the trend line between Paris and Reading Universities is: delta(37)Cl(Reading)= (1.007 +/- 0.009)delta(37)Cl(Paris) - (0.040 +/- 0.025), with a correlation coefficient: R-2 = 0.999. TIMS values from Leeds University have been compared to IRMS values from Paris University over the range -3.0 parts per thousand to +6.0 parts per thousand. On six samples, the agreement between these two laboratories, using different techniques is good: delta(37)Cl(Leeds)=(1.052 +/- 0.038)delta(37)Cl(Paris) + (0.058 +/- 0.099), with a correlation coefficient: R-2 = 0.995. The present study completes a previous cross-calibration between the Leeds and Reading laboratories to compare TIMS and IRMS results (Anal. Chem. 72 (2000) 2261). Both studies allow a comparison of IRMS and TIMS techniques between delta(37)Cl values from -4.4 parts per thousand to +6.0 parts per thousand and show a good agreement: delta(37)Cl(TIMS)=(1.039 +/- 0.023)delta(37)Cl(IRMS)+(0.059 +/- 0.056), with a correlation coefficient: R-2 = 0.996. Our study shows that, for fluid samples, if chlorine isotopic compositions are near 0 parts per thousand, their measurements either by IRMS or TIMS will give comparable results within less than +/- 0.10 parts per thousand, while for delta(37)Cl values as far as 10 parts per thousand (either positive or negative) from SMOC, both techniques will agree within less than +/- 0.30 parts per thousand. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of a large-eddy model simulation of a mixed-phase altocumulus cloud using microwave radiometer, lidar and Doppler radar data

Using the Met Office large-eddy model (LEM) we simulate a mixed-phase altocumulus cloud that was observed from Chilbolton in southern England by a 94 GHz Doppler radar, a 905 nm lidar, a dual-wavelength microwave radiometer and also by four radiosondes. It is important to test and evaluate such simulations with observations, since there are significant differences between results from different cloud-resolving models for ice clouds. Simulating the Doppler radar and lidar data within the LEM allows us to compare observed and modelled quantities directly, and allows us to explore the relationships between observed and unobserved variables. For general-circulation models, which currently tend to give poor representations of mixed-phase clouds, the case shows the importance of using: (i) separate prognostic ice and liquid water, (ii) a vertical resolution that captures the thin layers of liquid water, and (iii) an accurate representation the subgrid vertical velocities that allow liquid water to form. It is shown that large-scale ascents and descents are significant for this case, and so the horizontally averaged LEM profiles are relaxed towards observed profiles to account for these. The LEM simulation then gives a reasonable. cloud, with an ice-water path approximately two thirds of that observed, with liquid water at the cloud top, as observed. However, the liquid-water cells that form in the updraughts at cloud top in the LEM have liquid-water paths (LWPs) up to half those observed, and there are too few cells, giving a mean LWP five to ten times smaller than observed. In reality, ice nucleation and fallout may deplete ice-nuclei concentrations at the cloud top, allowing more liquid water to form there, but this process is not represented in the model. Decreasing the heterogeneous nucleation rate in the LEM increased the LWP, which supports this hypothesis. The LEM captures the increase in the standard deviation in Doppler velocities (and so vertical winds) with height, but values are 1.5 to 4 times smaller than observed (although values are larger in an unforced model run, this only increases the modelled LWP by a factor of approximately two). The LEM data show that, for values larger than approximately 12 cm s(-1), the standard deviation in Doppler velocities provides an almost unbiased estimate of the standard deviation in vertical winds, but provides an overestimate for smaller values. Time-smoothing the observed Doppler velocities and modelled mass-squared-weighted fallspeeds shows that observed fallspeeds are approximately two-thirds of the modelled values. Decreasing the modelled fallspeeds to those observed increases the modelled IWC, giving an IWP 1.6 times that observed.

Understanding projections of sea level rise in a Hadley Centre coupled climate model

Sea level changes resulting from CO2-induced climate changes in ocean density and circulation have been investigated in a series of idealised experiments with the Hadley Centre HadCM3 AOGCM. Changes in the mass of the ocean were not included. In the global mean, salinity changes have a negligible effect compared with the thermal expansion of the ocean. Regionally, sea level changes are projected to deviate greatly from the global mean (standard deviation is 40% of the mean). Changes in surface fluxes of heat, freshwater and wind stress are all found to produce significant and distinct regional sea level changes, wind stress changes being the most important and the cause of several pronounced local features, while heat and freshwater flux changes affect large parts of the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean. Regional change is related mainly to density changes, with a relatively small contribution in mid and high latitudes from change in the barotropic circulation. Regional density change has an important contribution from redistribution of ocean heat content. In general, unlike in the global mean, the regional pattern of sea level change due to density change appears to be influenced almost as much by salinity changes as by temperature changes, often in opposition. Such compensation is particularly marked in the North Atlantic, where it is consistent with recent observed changes. We suggest that density compensation is not a property of climate change specifically, but a general behavior of the ocean.

Joint effects of population density and toxicant exposure on population dynamics of Capitella sp I

Very few studies have analyzed the dependence of population growth rate on population density, and even fewer have considered interaction effects of density and other stresses, such as exposure to toxic chemicals. Yet without such studies we cannot know whether chemicals harmful at low density have effects on carrying capacity or, conversely, whether chemicals reducing carrying capacity are also harmful at low density, impeding a population's capacity to recover from disturbance. This study examines the combined effects of population density and a toxicant (fluoranthene) on population growth rate (pgr) and carrying capacity using the deposit-feeding polychaete Capitella sp. I as a test organism. Populations were initiated with a stable age distribution, and population density and age/size distribution were followed during a period of 28 wk. Fluoranthene (FLU), population density, and their interaction influenced population growth rate. Population growth rate declined linearly with the logarithm of population biomass, but the slope of the relationship was steeper for the control populations than for populations exposed to 50 mug FLU/(g sediment dry mass). Populations exposed to 150 mug FLU/(g sediment dry mass) went extinct after 8 wk of exposure. Despite concerns that toxicant effects would be exacerbated at high density, we found the reverse to be the case, and effects of fluoranthene on population growth rate were much reduced in the region of carrying capacity. Fluoranthene did. reduce carrying capacity by 46%, and this could haven important implications for interacting species and/or sediment biogeochemical processes.

On the determination of atmospheric water vapor from GPS measurements

Surface-based GPS measurements of zenith path delay (ZPD) can be used to derive vertically integrated water vapor (IWV) of the atmosphere. ZPD data are collected in a global network presently consisting of 160 stations as part of the International GPS Service. In the present study, ZPD data from this network are converted into IWV using observed surface pressure and mean atmospheric water vapor column temperature obtained from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts' (ECMWF) operational analyses (OA). For the 4 months of January/July 2000/2001, the GPS-derived IWV values are compared to the IWV from the ECMWF OA, with a special focus on the monthly averaged difference (bias) and the standard deviation of daily differences. This comparison shows that the GPS-derived IWV values are well suited for the validation of OA of IWV. For most GPS stations, the IWV data agree quite well with the analyzed data indicating that they are both correct at these locations. Larger differences for individual days are interpreted as errors in the analyses. A dry bias in the winter is found over central United States, Canada, and central Siberia, suggesting a systematic analysis error. Larger differences were mainly found in mountain areas. These were related to representation problems and interpolation difficulties between model height and station height. In addition, the IWV comparison can be used to identify errors or problems in the observations of ZPD. This includes errors in the data itself, e.g., erroneous outlier in the measured time series, as well as systematic errors that affect all IWV values at a specific station. Such stations were excluded from the intercomparison. Finally, long-term requirements for a GPS-based water vapor monitoring system are discussed.

Variation in seedling growth of 11 perennial legumes in response to phosphorus supply

Phosphorus (P) deficiency is a major problem for Australian agriculture. Development of new perennial pasture legumes that acquire or use P more efficiently than the current major perennial pasture legume, lucerne (Medicago sativa L.), is urgent. A glasshouse experiment compared the response of ten perennial herbaceous legume species to a series of P supplies ranging from 0 to 384 µg g−1 soil, with lucerne as the control. Under low-P conditions, several legumes produced more biomass than lucerne. Four species (Lotononis bainesii Baker, Kennedia prorepens F.Muell, K. prostrata R.Br, Bituminaria bituminosa (L.) C.H.Stirt) achieved maximum growth at 12 µg P g−1 soil, while other species required 24 µg P g−1. In most tested legumes, biomass production was reduced when P supply was ≥192 µg g−1, due to P toxicity, while L. bainesii and K. prorepens showed reduced biomass when P was ≥24 µg g−1 and K. prostrata at ≥48 µg P g−1 soil. B. bituminosa and Glycine canescens F.J.Herm required less soil P to achieve 0.5 g dry mass than the other species did. Lucerne performed poorly with low P supply and our results suggest that some novel perennial legumes may perform better on low-P soils.

Ocean heat content variability and change in an ensemble of ocean reanalyses

Accurate knowledge of the location and magnitude of ocean heat content (OHC) variability and change is essential for understanding the processes that govern decadal variations in surface temperature, quantifying changes in the planetary energy budget, and developing constraints on the transient climate response to external forcings. We present an overview of the temporal and spatial characteristics of OHC variability and change as represented by an ensemble of dynamical and statistical ocean reanalyses (ORAs). Spatial maps of the 0–300 m layer show large regions of the Pacific and Indian Oceans where the interannual variability of the ensemble mean exceeds ensemble spread, indicating that OHC variations are well-constrained by the available observations over the period 1993–2009. At deeper levels, the ORAs are less well-constrained by observations with the largest differences across the ensemble mostly associated with areas of high eddy kinetic energy, such as the Southern Ocean and boundary current regions. Spatial patterns of OHC change for the period 1997–2009 show good agreement in the upper 300 m and are characterized by a strong dipole pattern in the Pacific Ocean. There is less agreement in the patterns of change at deeper levels, potentially linked to differences in the representation of ocean dynamics, such as water mass formation processes. However, the Atlantic and Southern Oceans are regions in which many ORAs show widespread warming below 700 m over the period 1997–2009. Annual time series of global and hemispheric OHC change for 0–700 m show the largest spread for the data sparse Southern Hemisphere and a number of ORAs seem to be subject to large initialization ‘shock’ over the first few years. In agreement with previous studies, a number of ORAs exhibit enhanced ocean heat uptake below 300 and 700 m during the mid-1990s or early 2000s. The ORA ensemble mean (±1 standard deviation) of rolling 5-year trends in full-depth OHC shows a relatively steady heat uptake of approximately 0.9 ± 0.8 W m−2 (expressed relative to Earth’s surface area) between 1995 and 2002, which reduces to about 0.2 ± 0.6 W m−2 between 2004 and 2006, in qualitative agreement with recent analysis of Earth’s energy imbalance. There is a marked reduction in the ensemble spread of OHC trends below 300 m as the Argo profiling float observations become available in the early 2000s. In general, we suggest that ORAs should be treated with caution when employed to understand past ocean warming trends—especially when considering the deeper ocean where there is little in the way of observational constraints. The current work emphasizes the need to better observe the deep ocean, both for providing observational constraints for future ocean state estimation efforts and also to develop improved models and data assimilation methods.