Phyloclimatic modeling: Combining phylogenetics and bioclimatic modeling

We investigate the impact of past climates on plant diversification by tracking the "footprint" of climate change on a phylogenetic tree. Diversity within the cosmopolitan carnivorous plant genus Drosera (Droseraceae) is focused within Mediterranean climate regions. We explore whether this diversity is temporally linked to Mediterranean-type climatic shifts of the mid-Miocene and whether climate preferences are conservative over phylogenetic timescales. Phyloclimatic modeling combines environmental niche (bioclimatic) modeling with phylogenetics in order to study evolutionary patterns in relation to climate change. We present the largest and most complete such example to date using Drosera. The bioclimatic models of extant species demonstrate clear phylogenetic patterns; this is particularly evident for the tuberous sundews from southwestern Australia (subgenus Ergaleium). We employ a method for establishing confidence intervals of node ages on a phylogeny using replicates from a Bayesian phylogenetic analysis. This chronogram shows that many clades, including subgenus Ergaleium and section Bryastrum, diversified during the establishment of the Mediterranean-type climate. Ancestral reconstructions of bioclimatic models demonstrate a pattern of preference for this climate type within these groups. Ancestral bioclimatic models are projected into palaeo-climate reconstructions for the time periods indicated by the chronogram. We present two such examples that each generate plausible estimates of ancestral lineage distribution, which are similar to their current distributions. This is the first study to attempt bioclimatic projections on evolutionary time scales. The sundews appear to have diversified in response to local climate development. Some groups are specialized for Mediterranean climates, others show wide-ranging generalism. This demonstrates that Phyloclimatic modeling could be repeated for other plant groups and is fundamental to the understanding of evolutionary responses to climate change.

EQUAL: New horizons for ageing research

The Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) extending quality of life (EQUAL) initiative, specifically supports interdisciplinary user-focused design, engineering and technology research concerned with enhancing the independence and quality of life of older and disabled people. This paper briefly describes a recent programme to encourage the adoption of a broader perspective on the lives and needs of older people that have been pursued by EPSRC through its extending quality life (EQUAL) initiative. EPSRC is the principle supporter design, engineering and technology research in UK universities. The paper illustrates the scope of EQUAL.

Carbon fractions associated with silt-size particles in surface and subsurface soil horizons

Information on the distribution and behavior of C fractions in soil particle sizes is crucial for understanding C dynamics in soil. At present little is known about the behavior of the C associated with silt-size particles. We quantified the concentrations, distribution, and enrichment of total C (TC), readily oxidizable C (ROC), hotwater- extractable C (HWC), and cold-water-extractable C (CWC) fractions in coarse (63–20-mm), medium (20–6.3-mm), and fine (6.3–2-mm) silt-size subfractions and in coarse (2000–250 mm) and fine (250–63 mm) sand and clay (<2-mm) soil fractions isolated from bulk soil (<2 mm), and 2- to 4-mm aggregate-size fraction of surface (0–25 cm) and subsurface (25–55 cm) soils under different land uses. All measured C fractions varied significantly across all soil particle-size fractions. The highest C concentrations were associated with the <20-mm soil fractions and peaked in the medium (20–6.3-mm) and fine (6.3–2-mm) silt subfractions in most treatments. Carbon enrichment ratios (ERC) revealed the dual behavior of the C fractions associated with the medium silt-size fraction, demonstrating the simultaneous enrichment of TC and ROC, and the depletion of HWC and CWC fractions. The medium silt (20–6.3-mm) subfraction was identified in this study as a zone where the associated C fractions exhibit transitory qualities. Our results show that investigating subfractions within the silt-size particle fraction provides better understanding of the behavior of C fractions in this soil fraction.

Assessing the vulnerability of blanket peat to climate change using an ensemble of statistical bioclimatic envelope models

We assessed the vulnerability of blanket peat to climate change in Great Britain using an ensemble of 8 bioclimatic envelope models. We used 4 published models that ranged from simple threshold models, based on total annual precipitation, to Generalised Linear Models (GLMs, based on mean annual temperature). In addition, 4 new models were developed which included measures of water deficit as threshold, classification tree, GLM and generalised additive models (GAM). Models that included measures of both hydrological conditions and maximum temperature provided a better fit to the mapped peat area than models based on hydrological variables alone. Under UKCIP02 projections for high (A1F1) and low (B1) greenhouse gas emission scenarios, 7 out of the 8 models showed a decline in the bioclimatic space associated with blanket peat. Eastern regions (Northumbria, North York Moors, Orkney) were shown to be more vulnerable than higher-altitude, western areas (Highlands, Western Isles and Argyle, Bute and The Trossachs). These results suggest a long-term decline in the distribution of actively growing blanket peat, especially under the high emissions scenario, although it is emphasised that existing peatlands may well persist for decades under a changing climate. Observational data from long-term monitoring and manipulation experiments in combination with process-based models are required to explore the nature and magnitude of climate change impacts on these vulnerable areas more fully.

Bioclimatic envelope model of climate change impacts on blanket peatland distribution in Great Britain

Blanket peatlands are rain-fed mires that cover the landscape almost regardless of topography. The geographical extent of this type of peatland is highly sensitive to climate. We applied a global process-based bioclimatic envelope model, PeatStash, to predict the distribution of British blanket peatlands. The model captures the present areal extent (Kappa = 0.77) and is highly sensitive to both temperature and precipitation changes. When the model is run using the UKCIP02 climate projections for the time periods 2011–2040, 2041–2070 and 2071–2100, the geographical distribution of blanket peatlands gradually retreats towards the north and the west. In the UKCIP02 high emissions scenario for 2071–2100, the blanket peatland bioclimatic space is ~84% smaller than contemporary conditions (1961–1990); only parts of the west of Scotland remain inside this space. Increasing summer temperature is the main driver of the projected changes in areal extent. Simulations using 7 climate model outputs resulted in generally similar patterns of declining aereal extent of the bioclimatic space, although differing in degree. The results presented in this study should be viewed as a first step towards understanding the trends likely to affect the blanket peatland distribution in Great Britain. The eventual fate of existing blanket peatlands left outside their bioclimatic space remains uncertain.

Bioscience Horizons: the national journal of undergraduate research

Bioscience Horizons (BH)commenced publication in 2008 and features research papers and reviews written by graduating UK bioscience students. The journal is run by a consortium of UK universities (the Universities of Nottingham, Reading, Leeds and Chester) in association with Oxford University Press. Its submissions encompass the full range of subjects taught by UK bioscience departments, ranging from agronomy to zoology and including animal behaviour, cancer research, environmental biology, microbial sciences, molecular biology, pharmacolgy, primatology, taxonomy and other areas. BH receives manuscripts from recent graduates (with a bachelor of science or equivalent first degree) describing research carried out during their undergraduate studies, usually as a final-year research project. All submissions undergo expert review and have to meet strict criteria for scientific excellence and originality. Articles are written by a single author and published with the agreement of the graduate's home university department. The journal has an ISSN number and is open-access; articles are freely 'cite-able' contributions to the bioscience research literature.

Very high resolution bioclimatic zoning of Portuguese wine regions: present and future scenarios

Wine production is strongly affected by weather and climate and thus highly vulnerable to climate change. In Portugal, viticulture and wine production are an important economic activity. In the present study, current bioclimatic zoning in Portugal (1950–2000) and its projected changes under future climate conditions (2041–2070) are assessed through the analysis of an aggregated, categorized bioclimatic index (CatI) at a very high spatial resolution (near 1 km). CatI incorporates the most relevant bioclimatic characteristics of a given region, thus allowing the direct comparison between different regions. Future viticultural zoning is achieved using data from 13 climate model transient experiments following the A1B emission scenario. These data are downscaled using a two-step method of spatial pattern downscaling. This downscaling approach allows characterizing mesoclimatic influences on viticulture throughout Portugal. Results for the recent past depict the current spatial variability of Portuguese viticultural regions. Under future climate conditions, the current viticultural zoning is projected to undergo significant changes, which may represent important challenges for the Portuguese winemaking sector. The changes are quite robust across the different climate models. A lower bioclimatic diversity is also projected, resulting from a more homogeneous warm and dry climate in most of the wine regions. This will lead to changes in varietal suitability and wine characteristics of each region.