Experimental and modeled UV erthemal irradiance under overcast conditions: the role of cloud optical depth

This paper evaluates the relationship between the cloud modification factor (CMF) in the ultraviolet erythe- mal range and the cloud optical depth (COD) retrieved from the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) "cloud mode" algorithm under overcast cloudy conditions (confirmed with sky images) at Granada, Spain, mainly for non-precipitating, overcast and relatively homogenous water clouds. Empirical CMF showed a clear exponential dependence on experimental COD values, decreasing approximately from 0.7 for COD=10 to 0.25 for COD=50. In addition, these COD measurements were used as input in the LibRadtran radia tive transfer code allowing the simulation of CMF values for the selected overcast cases. The modeled CMF exhibited a dependence on COD similar to the empirical CMF, but modeled values present a strong underestimation with respect to the empirical factors (mean bias of 22 %). To explain this high bias, an exhaustive comparison between modeled and experimental UV erythemal irradiance (UVER) data was performed. The comparison revealed that the radiative transfer simulations were 8 % higher than the observations for clear-sky conditions. The rest of the bias (~14 %) may be attributed to the substantial underestimation of modeled UVER with respect to experimental UVER under overcast conditions, although the correlation between both dataset was high (R2 ~ 0.93). A sensitive test showed that the main reason responsible for that underestimation is the experimental AERONET COD used as input in the simulations, which has been retrieved from zenith radiances in the visible range. In this sense, effective COD in the erythemal interval were derived from an iteration procedure based on searching the best match between modeled and experimental UVER values for each selected overcast case. These effective COD values were smaller than AERONET COD data in about 80 % of the overcast cases with a mean relative difference of 22 %.

The Kasparov-World Match

The Kasparov-World match was initiated by Microsoft with sponsorship from the bank First USA. The concept was that Garry Kasparov as White would play the rest of the world on the Web: one ply would be played per day and the World Team was to vote for its move. The Kasparov-World game was a success from many points of view. It certainly gave thousands the feeling of facing the world’s best player across the board and did much for the future of the game. Described by Kasparov as “phenomenal ... the most complex in chess history”, it is probably a worthy ‘Greatest Game’ candidate. Computer technology has given chess a new mode of play and taken it to new heights: the experiment deserves to be repeated. We look forward to another game and experience of this quality although it will be difficult to surpass the event we have just enjoyed. We salute and thank all those who contributed - sponsors, moderator, coaches, unofficial analysts, organisers, technologists, voters and our new friends.

Adaptive project planning and management based on best practices - COBRA system

Planning a project with proper considerations of all necessary factors and managing a project to ensure its successful implementation will face a lot of challenges. Initial stage in planning a project for bidding a project is costly, time consuming and usually with poor accuracy on cost and effort predictions. On the other hand, detailed information for previous projects may be buried in piles of archived documents which can be increasingly difficult to learn from the previous experiences. Project portfolio has been brought into this field aiming to improve the information sharing and management among different projects. However, the amount of information that could be shared is still limited to generic information. This paper, we report a recently developed software system COBRA to automatically generate a project plan with effort estimation of time and cost based on data collected from previous completed projects. To maximise the data sharing and management among different projects, we proposed a method of using product based planning from PRINCE2 methodology. (Automated Project Information Sharing and Management System -�COBRA) Keywords: project management, product based planning, best practice, PRINCE2

Over-parameterised, uncertain 'mathematical marionettes' - How can we best use catchment water quality models? An example of an 80-year catchment-scale nutrient balance

The Integrated Catchment Model of Nitrogen (INCA-N) was applied to the River Lambourn, a Chalk river-system in southern England. The model's abilities to simulate the long-term trend and seasonal patterns in observed stream water nitrate concentrations from 1920 to 2003 were tested. This is the first time a semi-distributed, daily time-step model has been applied to simulate such a long time period and then used to calculate detailed catchment nutrient budgets which span the conversion of pasture to arable during the late 1930s and 1940s. Thus, this work goes beyond source apportionment and looks to demonstrate how such simulations can be used to assess the state of the catchment and develop an understanding of system behaviour. The mass-balance results from 1921, 1922, 1991, 2001 and 2002 are presented and those for 1991 are compared to other modelled and literature values of loads associated with nitrogen soil processes and export. The variations highlighted the problem of comparing modelled fluxes with point measurements but proved useful for identifying the most poorly understood inputs and processes thereby providing an assessment of input data and model structural uncertainty. The modelled terrestrial and instream mass-balances also highlight the importance of the hydrological conditions in pollutant transport. Between 1922 and 2002, increased inputs of nitrogen from fertiliser, livestock and deposition have altered the nitrogen balance with a shift from possible reduction in soil fertility but little environmental impact in 1922, to a situation of nitrogen accumulation in the soil, groundwater and instream biota in 2002. In 1922 and 2002 it was estimated that approximately 2 and 18 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1) respectively were exported from the land to the stream. The utility of the approach and further considerations for the best use of models are discussed. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Wiggle-match dating of tree-ring sequences

Given the non-monotonic form of the radiocarbon calibration curve, the precision of single C-14 dates on the calendar timescale will always be limited. One way around this limitation is through comparison of time-series, which should exhibit the same irregular patterning as the calibration curve. This approach can be employed most directly in the case of wood samples with many years growth present (but not able to be dated by dendrochronology), where the tree-ring series of unknown date can be compared against the similarly constructed C-14 calibration curve built from known-age wood. This process of curve-fitting has come to be called "wiggle-matching." In this paper, we look at the requirements for getting good precision by this method: sequence length, sampling frequency, and measurement precision. We also look at 3 case studies: one a piece of wood which has been independently dendrochronologically dated, and two others of unknown age relating to archaeological activity at Silchester, UK (Roman) and Miletos, Anatolia (relating to the volcanic eruption at Thera).

Over-parameterised, uncertain 'mathematical marionettes' - How can we best use catchment water quality models? An example of an 80-year catchment-scale nutrient balance

The Integrated Catchment Model of Nitrogen (INCA-N) was applied to the River Lambourn, a Chalk river-system in southern England. The model's abilities to simulate the long-term trend and seasonal patterns in observed stream water nitrate concentrations from 1920 to 2003 were tested. This is the first time a semi-distributed, daily time-step model has been applied to simulate such a long time period and then used to calculate detailed catchment nutrient budgets which span the conversion of pasture to arable during the late 1930s and 1940s. Thus, this work goes beyond source apportionment and looks to demonstrate how such simulations can be used to assess the state of the catchment and develop an understanding of system behaviour. The mass-balance results from 1921, 1922, 1991, 2001 and 2002 are presented and those for 1991 are compared to other modelled and literature values of loads associated with nitrogen soil processes and export. The variations highlighted the problem of comparing modelled fluxes with point measurements but proved useful for identifying the most poorly understood inputs and processes thereby providing an assessment of input data and model structural uncertainty. The modelled terrestrial and instream mass-balances also highlight the importance of the hydrological conditions in pollutant transport. Between 1922 and 2002, increased inputs of nitrogen from fertiliser, livestock and deposition have altered the nitrogen balance with a shift from possible reduction in soil fertility but little environmental impact in 1922, to a situation of nitrogen accumulation in the soil, groundwater and instream biota in 2002. In 1922 and 2002 it was estimated that approximately 2 and 18 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1) respectively were exported from the land to the stream. The utility of the approach and further considerations for the best use of models are discussed. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Best Available Techniques (BAT) and coal fired power stations: Can the energy gap be plugged without increasing emissions?

At present, there is much anxiety regarding the security of energy supplies; for example, the UK and other European States are set to become increasingly dependant upon imports of natural gas from states with which political relations are often strained. These uncertainties are felt acutely by the electricity generating sector, which is facing major challenges regarding the choice of fuel mix in the years ahead. Nuclear energy may provide an alternative; however, in the UK, progress in replacing the first generation reactors is exceedingly slow. A number of operators are looking to coal as a means of plugging the energy gap. However, in the light of ever more stringent legal controls on emissions, this step cannot be taken without the adoption of sophisticated pollution abatement technology. This article examines the role which legal concepts such as Best Available Techniques (BAT) must play in bringing about these changes.

Do construction companies need to match employees' expectations?

Commitment of employees is relatively low in construction. This problem is exasperated by companies inability to attract, motivate, and retain talent that is then often channelled into other more attractive industrial sectors where the prospects, conditions and rewards are perceived to be much higher. The purpose of this study is thus primarily to develop a generic model to maximise employees' engagement, improve their motivation and increase the retention levels. To achieve this aim, the investigation looks into how perceived employment obligations and expectations impact commitment and through that organisational performance. The study is based on the postulations of Luhmann's theory of social systems with communication viewed as a constitutive element of a social system. Consequently expectations of a particular party in an employment relationship are represented in a communicative space requiring the other party's understanding in order to align expectations of both sides in the relationship. Explicitly, alignment of by an employee perceived manager's expectations determines his/ her commitment to fulfil obligations towards the manager. The result of this first stage of research is a conceptual model developed following the substantial supporting evidence in the literature and it forms the framework for mitigation of low commitment, motivation and retention of employees. The model particularly focuses on factors affecting employees' perceived expectations like reneging, incongruence and the process of communication. In the future the model will be validated using empirical data from a combination of observational and enquiry-based research. Once completed, the model will provide a framework for informing Human Resource Management policies with the aim to improve commitment of employees, increase the levels of retention and consequently improve the performance of construction organisations.

A critical assessment of a desk study comparing crop production systems: The example of the 'system of rice intensification' versus 'best management practice'

When assessing hypotheses, the possibility and consequences of false-positive conclusions should be considered along with the avoidance of false-negative ones. A recent assessment of the system of rice intensification (SRI) by McDonald et al. [McDonald, A.J., Hobbs, P.R., Riha, S.J., 2006. Does the system of rice intensification outperform conventional best management? A synopsis of the empirical record. Field Crops Res. 96, 31-36] provides a good example where this was not done as it was preoccupied with avoiding false-positives only. It concluded, based on a desk study using secondary data assembled selectively from diverse sources and with a 95% level of confidence, that 'best management practices' (BMPs) on average produce 11% higher rice yields than SRI methods, and that, therefore, SRI has little to offer beyond what is already known by scientists.

The best of both worlds: Producing national statistics using participatory methods

This paper presents our experience with combining statistical principles and participatory methods to generate national statistics. The methodology was developed in Malawi during 1999–2002. We demonstrate that if PRA is combined with statistical principles (including probability-based sampling and standardization), it can produce total population statistics and estimates of the proportion of households with certain characteristics (e.g., poverty). It can also provide quantitative data on complex issues of national importance such as poverty targeting. This approach is distinct from previous PRA-based approaches, which generate numbers at community level but only provide qualitative information at national level.