Modelling European winter wind storm losses in current and future climate

Severe wind storms are one of the major natural hazards in the extratropics and inflict substantial economic damages and even casualties. Insured storm-related losses depend on (i) the frequency, nature and dynamics of storms, (ii) the vulnerability of the values at risk, (iii) the geographical distribution of these values, and (iv) the particular conditions of the risk transfer. It is thus of great importance to assess the impact of climate change on future storm losses. To this end, the current study employs—to our knowledge for the first time—a coupled approach, using output from high-resolution regional climate model scenarios for the European sector to drive an operational insurance loss model. An ensemble of coupled climate-damage scenarios is used to provide an estimate of the inherent uncertainties. Output of two state-of-the-art global climate models (HadAM3, ECHAM5) is used for present (1961–1990) and future climates (2071–2100, SRES A2 scenario). These serve as boundary data for two nested regional climate models with a sophisticated gust parametrizations (CLM, CHRM). For validation and calibration purposes, an additional simulation is undertaken with the CHRM driven by the ERA40 reanalysis. The operational insurance model (Swiss Re) uses a European-wide damage function, an average vulnerability curve for all risk types, and contains the actual value distribution of a complete European market portfolio. The coupling between climate and damage models is based on daily maxima of 10 m gust winds, and the strategy adopted consists of three main steps: (i) development and application of a pragmatic selection criterion to retrieve significant storm events, (ii) generation of a probabilistic event set using a Monte-Carlo approach in the hazard module of the insurance model, and (iii) calibration of the simulated annual expected losses with a historic loss data base. The climate models considered agree regarding an increase in the intensity of extreme storms in a band across central Europe (stretching from southern UK and northern France to Denmark, northern Germany into eastern Europe). This effect increases with event strength, and rare storms show the largest climate change sensitivity, but are also beset with the largest uncertainties. Wind gusts decrease over northern Scandinavia and Southern Europe. Highest intra-ensemble variability is simulated for Ireland, the UK, the Mediterranean, and parts of Eastern Europe. The resulting changes on European-wide losses over the 110-year period are positive for all layers and all model runs considered and amount to 44% (annual expected loss), 23% (10 years loss), 50% (30 years loss), and 104% (100 years loss). There is a disproportionate increase in losses for rare high-impact events. The changes result from increases in both severity and frequency of wind gusts. Considerable geographical variability of the expected losses exists, with Denmark and Germany experiencing the largest loss increases (116% and 114%, respectively). All countries considered except for Ireland (−22%) experience some loss increases. Some ramifications of these results for the socio-economic sector are discussed, and future avenues for research are highlighted. The technique introduced in this study and its application to realistic market portfolios offer exciting prospects for future research on the impact of climate change that is relevant for policy makers, scientists and economists.

Dry matter intake is decreased more by abomasal infusion of unsaturated free fatty acids than by unsaturated Triglycerides

Previous experiments from our group have demonstrated that abomasal infusion of unsaturated free fatty acids (FFA) markedly decreases dry matter intake (DMI) in dairy cows. In contrast, experiments from other groups have noted smaller decreases in DMI when unsaturated triglycerides (TG) were infused postruminally. Our hypothesis was that unsaturated FFA would be more potent inhibitors of DMI than an equivalent amount of unsaturated TG. Four Holstein cows in late lactation were used in a single reversal design. Cows were fed a total mixed ration containing (DM basis) 23% alfalfa silage, 23% corn silage, 40.3% ground shelled corn, and 10.5% soybean meal. Two cows received soy FFA (UFA; 0, 200, 400, 600 g/d) and 2 received soy oil (TG) in the same amounts; cows then were switched to the other lipid source. Cows were abomasally infused with each amount for 5-d periods. The daily amount of lipid was pulse-dosed in 4 equal portions at 0600, 1000, 1700, and 2200 h; no emulsifiers were used and there was no sign of digestive disturbance. Both lipid sources linearly decreased DMI, with a significant interaction between lipid source and amount. Slope-ratio analysis indicated that UFA were about 2 times more potent in decreasing DMI than were TG. Decreased DMI led to decreased milk production. Milk fat content was increased linearly by lipid infusion. Milk fat yield decreased markedly for UFA infusion but was relatively unaffected by infusion of TG. Contents of short- and medium-chain fatty acids in milk fat decreased as the amount of either infusate increased. Contents of C-18:2 and C18: 3 in milk fat were increased linearly by abomasal infusion of either fat source; cis-9 C-18:1 was unaffected. Transfer of infused C18: 2 to milk fat was 35.6, 42.5, and 27.8% for 200, 400, and 600 g/d of UFA, and 34.3, 39.6, and 34.0% for respective amounts of TG. Glucagon-like peptide-1 (7-36) amide (GLP-1) concentration in plasma significantly increased as DMI decreased with increasing infusion amount of UFA or TG. Plasma concentration of cholecystokinin-octapeptide (CCK-8) was unaffected by lipid infusion. These results indicate that unsaturated FFA reaching the duodenum are more potent inhibitors of DMI than are unsaturated TG; the effect may be at least partially mediated by GLP-1.

Thermochemical kinetics: does it still give insights?

This tutorial review revisits the subject of the seminal book written by Sidney Benson in 1968. A short summary of the nature of the subject is presented, including its place in the wider world of quantitative chemistry. A number of themes are selected to illustrate its previous and continuing usefulness in evaluating numerical values of important quantities, and probing ideas of reaction mechanism. These include strain enthalpies for biradical combination, chain reactions, why some reactions don't occur and the involvement of carbenes in hydrocarbon rearrangements.

Growth of Salmonella enteritidis in artificially contaminated eggs: the effects of inoculum size and suspending media

Growth profiles of two isolates of Salmonella enteritidis phage type (PT) 4 inoculated into either the albumen of whole shell eggs or into separated albumen were found to be markedly affected by the size of the inoculum and the composition of the medium used to suspend the cells prior to inoculation. Using our model with an inoculum of two cells, multiplication of the Salmonella was not seen in 93% of eggs held at 20 degreesC for 8 days. In approximately 7% of eggs, however, growth occurred during the 8 days of storage. If the inoculum equaled or exceeded 25 cells per egg when eggs were subsequently stored at 20 degreesC, or 250 cells per egg when eggs were stored at 30 degreesC, high levels of growth of Salmonella in the egg occurred significantly more frequently than when the inoculum was two cells. High levels of growth were also seen more frequently if the inoculum was suspended in buffered peptone water or maximal recovery diluent rather than in phosphate buffered saline. Growth of Salmonella in separated albumen occurred very infrequently (1.1% of samples) at low inoculum levels and did not become significant until the inoculum was 250 cells or greater. Growth in the albumen was unaffected by the composition of the suspending medium. Provided that the inoculum was approximately 2 cells per egg and the bacteria were suspended in PBS, observed growth profiles of S. enteritidis inoculated into the albumen of whole eggs resembled those in naturally contaminated eggs. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Flagella and curli fimbriae are important for the growth of Salmonella enterica serovars in hen eggs

Salmonella enterica serovar Enteritidis is unable to multiply in the albumen of fresh eggs and must gain access to the yolk contents in order to multiply to a high level (> 10(6) c.f.u. per ml egg contents). As human Salmonella infections resulting from the consumption of infected eggs more frequently involve serovar Enteritidis phage type (PT) 4 than other serovars or PTs, a number of isolates of various S. enterica serovars were examined for their ability to multiply to a high level in eggs over a period of 8 days storage at 20 degreesC. Their behaviour was compared to that of a range of defined fimbrial and flagella mutants of S. Enteritidis. Strains that did not express flagella were unable to multiply in eggs, and those deficient for curli fimbriae, including strains of S. Enteritidis PT6, displayed high-level growth in significantly fewer eggs than those able to express curli. Most S. Enteritidis strains multiplied to a high level in between 5 and 10 % of eggs during 8 days storage. One PT4 strain, though, showed high levels of growth in more than 25 % of eggs over this period, significantly higher than the other PTs or the two other isolates of PT4 tested. This ability may be important for the association of PT4 infection with the consumption of eggs.

Gender and the evaluation of research

This study examines if and how gender relates to research evaluation via panel assessment and journal ratings lists. Using data from UK business schools we find no evidence that the proportion of women in a submission for panel assessment affected the score received by the submitting institution. However, we do find that women on average receive lower scores according to some journal ratings lists. There are important differences in the rated quality of journals that men and women publish in across the sub-disciplines with men publishing significantly more research in the highest rated accountancy, information management and strategy journals. In addition, women who are able to utilise networks to co-author with individuals outside their institution are able to publish in higher-rated journals, although the same is not true for men; women who are attributed with “individual staff circumstances” (e.g. maternity leave or part-time working) have lower scores according to journal ratings lists.

Caribbean Irish connections

There has been an Irish presence within the Caribbean since at least the 1620s and yet the historical and cultural dimensions of this encounter remain relatively under-researched and are often conceived of in reductive terms by crude markers such as redlegs or poor whites. While there are some striking reminders of this hitory throughout the region, this collection explores how the complications and contradictions of Irish Caribbean relations are much richer and deeper than previously recognized. Caribbean Irish Connections makes an important contribution to Irish studies by challenging the dominance of a US diasporic history and a disciplinary focus on cultural continuity and ancestry. Likewise, within Caribbean studies, the Irish presence troubles the orthodox historical models for understanding race and the plantation, race and class structures, as well as questions of ethnic and religious minorities. The contributors emphasize the importance of understanding the transatlantic nexus between Ireland and the Caribbean in terms of the shared historical experiences of dislocation, diaspora and colonization, as well as of direct encounter. This collection pays tribute to the extraordinarily rich tradition of cultural expression that informs both cultures and their imagination of each other.

Shani Mootoo: writing, difference and the Caribbean

An introduction to the journal is presented in which the author discusses various reports published within the issue including the essays of Donna McCormack on the story of Shani Mootoo's novel "Valmiki's Daughter," one by Rebecca Ashworth on "Cereus Blooms at Night" and one by Emily Taylor on Mootoo's work.