Decadal Prediction. Can It Be Skillful?

A new field of study, “decadal prediction,” is emerging in climate science. Decadal prediction lies between seasonal/interannual forecasting and longer-term climate change projections, and focuses on time-evolving regional climate conditions over the next 10–30 yr. Numerous assessments of climate information user needs have identified this time scale as being important to infrastructure planners, water resource managers, and many others. It is central to the information portfolio required to adapt effectively to and through climatic changes. At least three factors influence time-evolving regional climate at the decadal time scale: 1) climate change commitment (further warming as the coupled climate system comes into adjustment with increases of greenhouse gases that have already occurred), 2) external forcing, particularly from future increases of greenhouse gases and recovery of the ozone hole, and 3) internally generated variability. Some decadal prediction skill has been demonstrated to arise from the first two of these factors, and there is evidence that initialized coupled climate models can capture mechanisms of internally generated decadal climate variations, thus increasing predictive skill globally and particularly regionally. Several methods have been proposed for initializing global coupled climate models for decadal predictions, all of which involve global time-evolving three-dimensional ocean data, including temperature and salinity. An experimental framework to address decadal predictability/prediction is described in this paper and has been incorporated into the coordinated Coupled Model Intercomparison Model, phase 5 (CMIP5) experiments, some of which will be assessed for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). These experiments will likely guide work in this emerging field over the next 5 yr.

Stable isotope evidence for 1500 years of human diet at the city of York, UK

We present here the results of a large-scale diachronic palaeodietary (carbon and nitrogen isotopic measurements of bone collagen) study of humans and animals from a single site, the city of York (U.K.) dating from the Roman period to the early 19th century The human sample comprises 313 burials from the cemeteries of Trentholme Drive and Blossom Street (Roman), Belle Vue House (Anglo-Saxon), Fishergate (High and Later Medieval), and All Saints, Pavement (Later and Post-Medieval). In addition, 145 samples of mammal, fish and bird bone from the sites of Tanner Row and Fishergate were analyzed. The isotope data suggest dietary variation between all archaeological periods, although the most significant change was the introduction of significant quantities of marine foods in the Medieval periods. These are first evident in the diet of a small group of individuals from the High Medieval cemetery at Fishergate, although they were consumed almost universally in the following periods. The human isotope values are also remarkable due to unusually elevated delta N-15 ratios that are not sufficiently explained by the comparably small enrichment in C-13 that accompanies them. We discuss the possible reasons behind this and the archaeological significance of the data set.

Formation and circulation of the cold intermediate layer in the Gulf of Saint Lawrence

[ 1] The local heat content and formation rate of the cold intermediate layer (CIL) in the Gulf of Saint Lawrence are examined using a combination of new in situ wintertime observations and a three-dimensional numerical model. The field observations consist of five moorings located throughout the gulf over the period of November 2002 to June 2003. The observations demonstrate a substantially deeper surface mixed layer in the central and northeast gulf than in regions downstream of the buoyant surface outflow from the Saint Lawrence Estuary. The mixed-layer depth in the estuary remains shallow (< 60 m) throughout winter, with the arrival of a layer of near-freezing waters between 40 and 100 m depth in April. An eddy-permitting ice-ocean model with realistic forcing is used to hindcast the period of observation. The model simulates well the seasonal evolution of mixed-layer depth and CIL heat content. Although the greatest heat losses occur in the northeast, the most significant change in CIL heat content over winter occurs in the Anticosti Trough. The observed renewal of CIL in the estuary in spring is captured by the model. The simulation highlights the role of the northwest gulf, and in particular, the separation of the Gaspe Current, in controlling the exchange of CIL between the estuary and the gulf. In order to isolate the effects of inflow through the Strait of Belle Isle on the CIL heat content, we examine a sensitivity experiment in which the strait is closed. This simulation shows that the inflow has a less important effect on the CIL than was suggested by previous studies.

Preparation and properties of gallaborane, GaBH6: structure of the gaseous molecule H2Ga(μ-H)2BH2 as determined by vibrational, electron diffraction, and ab initio studies, and structure of the crystalline solid at 110 K as determined by x-ray diffraction``

Gallaborane (GaBH6, 1), synthesized by the metathesis of LiBH4 with [H2GaCl]n at ca. 250 K, has been characterized by chemical analysis and by its IR and 1H and 11B NMR spectra. The IR spectrum of the vapor at low pressure implies the presence of only one species, viz. H2Ga(μ-H)2BH2, with a diborane-like structure conforming to C2v symmetry. The structure of this molecule has been determined by gas-phase electron diffraction (GED) measurements afforced by the results of ab initio molecular orbital calculations. Hence the principal distances (rα in Å) and angles ( α in deg) are as follows: r(Ga•••B), 2.197(3); r(Ga−Ht), 1.555(6); r(Ga−Hb), 1.800(6); r(B−Ht), 1.189(7); r(B−Hb), 1.286(7); Hb−Ga−Hb, 71.6(4); and Hb−B−Hb, 110.0(5) (t = terminal, b = bridging). Aggregation of the molecules occurs in the condensed phases. X-ray crystallographic studies of a single crystal at 110 K reveal a polymeric network with helical chains made up of alternating pseudotetrahedral GaH4 and BH4 units linked through single hydrogen bridges; the average Ga•••B distance is now 2.473(7) Å. The compound decomposes in the condensed phases at temperatures exceeding ca. 240 K with the formation of elemental Ga and H2 and B2H6. The reactions with NH3, Me3N, and Me3P are also described.

Frozen tears II

Russell, J. [Ed. & designer]. Including texts by Kathy Acker, Dominique Auch, Dennis Cooper, Trinie Dalton, Sue De Beer, Felix Ensslin, Dan Fox, Matthew Greene, Pierre Guyotat, Rachel Howe, Kevin Killian, Christopher Knowles, Gean Moreno, J.P. Munro, Paulina Olowska, Damon Packard, Allison Smith, Banks Violette, Benjamin Weissman, & Thom Wolf. 832 pages.

Richard le Scandinave? Héroïsme et métissage culturel dans le Roman de Rou de Wace

This article explores the bilingual and bicultural identity of Normandy revealed by Wace's depiction of Duke Richard the Fearless in the Roman de Rou. The anecdotes that open the Troisieme Partie of the Rou are analysed in the light of Scandinavian analogues, in particular the Saga of Grettir. This allows us to discern in Wace's stories a dual tradition, with romance and scandinavian strands that were not always mutually compatible, resulting in narrative tensions that had hitherto remained unexplained. In particular, the fearless duke takes on connotations of mental instability that would only have been recognised by the Normans of Danish origin.

A verification framework for interannual-to-decadal predictions experiments

Decadal predictions have a high profile in the climate science community and beyond, yet very little is known about their skill. Nor is there any agreed protocol for estimating their skill. This paper proposes a sound and coordinated framework for verification of decadal hindcast experiments. The framework is illustrated for decadal hindcasts tailored to meet the requirements and specifications of CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5). The chosen metrics address key questions about the information content in initialized decadal hindcasts. These questions are: (1) Do the initial conditions in the hindcasts lead to more accurate predictions of the climate, compared to un-initialized climate change projections? and (2) Is the prediction model’s ensemble spread an appropriate representation of forecast uncertainty on average? The first question is addressed through deterministic metrics that compare the initialized and uninitialized hindcasts. The second question is addressed through a probabilistic metric applied to the initialized hindcasts and comparing different ways to ascribe forecast uncertainty. Verification is advocated at smoothed regional scales that can illuminate broad areas of predictability, as well as at the grid scale, since many users of the decadal prediction experiments who feed the climate data into applications or decision models will use the data at grid scale, or downscale it to even higher resolution. An overall statement on skill of CMIP5 decadal hindcasts is not the aim of this paper. The results presented are only illustrative of the framework, which would enable such studies. However, broad conclusions that are beginning to emerge from the CMIP5 results include (1) Most predictability at the interannual-to-decadal scale, relative to climatological averages, comes from external forcing, particularly for temperature; (2) though moderate, additional skill is added by the initial conditions over what is imparted by external forcing alone; however, the impact of initialization may result in overall worse predictions in some regions than provided by uninitialized climate change projections; (3) limited hindcast records and the dearth of climate-quality observational data impede our ability to quantify expected skill as well as model biases; and (4) as is common to seasonal-to-interannual model predictions, the spread of the ensemble members is not necessarily a good representation of forecast uncertainty. The authors recommend that this framework be adopted to serve as a starting point to compare prediction quality across prediction systems. The framework can provide a baseline against which future improvements can be quantified. The framework also provides guidance on the use of these model predictions, which differ in fundamental ways from the climate change projections that much of the community has become familiar with, including adjustment of mean and conditional biases, and consideration of how to best approach forecast uncertainty.

The kinetics of αIIbβ3 activation determines the size and stability of thrombi in mice: implications for antiplatelet therapy.

Two major pathways contribute to Ras-proximate-1-mediated integrin activation in stimulated platelets. Calcium and diacyglycerol-regulated guanine nucleotide exchange factor I (CalDAG-GEFI, RasGRP2) mediates the rapid but reversible activation of integrin αIIbβ3, while the adenosine diphosphate receptor P2Y12, the target for antiplatelet drugs like clopidogrel, facilitates delayed but sustained integrin activation. To establish CalDAG-GEFI as a target for antiplatelet therapy, we compared how each pathway contributes to thrombosis and hemostasis in mice. Ex vivo, thrombus formation at arterial or venous shear rates was markedly reduced in CalDAG-GEFI(-/-) blood, even in the presence of exogenous adenosine diphosphate and thromboxane A(2). In vivo, thrombosis was virtually abolished in arterioles and arteries of CalDAG-GEFI(-/-) mice, while small, hemostatically active thrombi formed in venules. Specific deletion of the C1-like domain of CalDAG-GEFI in circulating platelets also led to protection from thrombus formation at arterial flow conditions, while it only marginally increased blood loss in mice. In comparison, thrombi in the micro- and macrovasculature of clopidogrel-treated wild-type mice grew rapidly and frequently embolized but were hemostatically inactive. Together, these data suggest that inhibition of the catalytic or the C1 regulatory domain in CalDAG-GEFI will provide strong protection from athero-thrombotic complications while maintaining a better safety profile than P2Y12 inhibitors like clopidogrel.

La fontaine bouillonnante et la tombe de Lancelot l'Ancien: modalités textuelles et iconographiques de la construction cyclique dans le Lancelot-Graal

La tête du roi Lancelot l'Ancien, l'aïeul du chevalier Lancelot, assassiné par le duc de Belle Garde, est plongée dans une fontaine merveilleuse bouillonnante, tandis que son corps, gardé par deux lions, est conservé dans un tombeau extraordinaire dont suintent des gouttes de sang aux propriétés curatives. Sur le plan textuel, les références aux merveilles qui suivent la mort de Lancelot l'Ancien dans l'Estoire del saint Graal, le Lancelot et la Queste del Saint Graal témoignent de la construction du cycle du Lancelot-Graal par l'intégration d'une dimension à la fois historique et généalogique. Or l'iconographie des manuscrits enluminés du cycle du Graal privilégie davantage la mise en série d'épisodes apparentés que la construction d'une logique véritablement cyclique. Le remploi de compositions ou de motifs iconographiques renforce la cohérence de l'univers chevaleresque et merveilleux ainsi créé sans pour autant impliquer d'effet de circularité.

Testosterone is associated with self-employment among Australian men

Testosterone has pronounced effects on men’s physiological development and smaller, more nuanced, impacts on their economic behavior. In this study of 1199 Australian adult males, we investigate the relationship between the self-employed and their serum testosterone levels. Because prior studies have identified that testosterone is a hormone that is responsive to external factors (e.g. competition, risk-taking), we explicitly control for omitted variable bias and reverse causality by using an instrumental variable approach. We use insulin as our primary instrument to account for endogeneity between testosterone and self-employment. This is because prior research has identified a relationship between insulin and testosterone but not between insulin and self-employment. Our results show that there is a positive association between total testosterone and self-employment. Robustness checks using bioavailable testosterone and another similar instrument (daily alcohol consumption) confirm this positive finding.

Like mother, like daughter? Analyzing maternal influences upon women’s entrepreneurial propensity

Within the phenomenon of entrepreneurship, the extant literature suggests that the normative actor is embodied by and through stereotypical masculinized characteristics. In this paper,we contextualize entrepreneurship as self-employment in order to explore how such stereotypical characterizations might influence women’s attitudes toward this activity. However, rather than analyzing the confirmatory effects of stereotypes, we critically evaluate the effect of counterstereotypical characterizations upon women’s propensity for self-employment. Drawing upon life-span data, we explore whether self-employed mothers disconfirm masculinized stereotypes and so act as positive role models for their daughters.As hypothesized, we found that maternal self-employment has a counterstereotypical effect and so positively influences daughters to become self-employed. These data indicate, however, that this effect is tempered by personal stereotypes held by daughters; moreover, it is shaped by significant life events (marriage, parenthood, education, and prior managerial experience). By using a robust data set, this paper contributes to our understanding of how stereotypes and role expectations influence women’s propensity toward entrepreneurial activity.

The determinants of online loan applications from small businesses

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine both the characteristics of the business customers and the types of venture which make use of online loan applications. Despite the growth in the use of technology in banking and the advent of online banking, little research has been conducted on the factors underlying online loan application behaviour amongst business banking customers. Design/methodology/approach – A multivariate analysis is conducted on a USA dataset to empirically test the hypotheses derived in this paper. The empirical evidence is drawn from the US Survey of Small Business Finances, which contains 3,561 sample ventures, representing 5.3 million small businesses in the USA. Findings – The paper finds that online loan behaviour is largely determined by the characteristics of the entrepreneur, rather than that of the venture. It is also found that factors that trust, evident in the length of the relationship between the applicants and their primary lender, is important. Moderating these effects is further evidence that suggests the number of lenders and distance between lenders and applicants has a marked effect on online loan behaviour. Originality/value – This paper identifies the factors determining small business online loan application behaviour. This is important because the nature of online loan behaviour is changing the existing relationships between banks and customers. Whilst online loan applications afford banks the opportunity to substantially reduce costs, the danger is that long term relationships with customers are harder to cement.