A herald and his objects in exile: Roger Machado and his memorandum book, 1484-1485

A re-examination of the herald Roger Machado's extant memorandum book, which contains an inventory and mercantile accounts amongst its contents. It is argued that this little-studied source provides evidence for an otherwise undocumented period in Machado's life - when he fled into exile to join Henry Tudor.

Large snowfall events in the south-eastern Alps

Stratospheric Memory and Skill of Extended-Range Weather Forecasts

We use an empirical statistical model to demonstrate significant skill in making extended-range forecasts of the monthly-mean Arctic Oscillation (AO). Forecast skill derives from persistent circulation anomalies in the lowermost stratosphere and is greatest during boreal winter. A comparison to the Southern Hemisphere provides evidence that both the time scale and predictability of the AO depend on the presence of persistent circulation anomalies just above the tropopause. These circulation anomalies most likely affect the troposphere through changes to waves in the upper troposphere, which induce surface pressure changes that correspond to the AO.

Decadal Prediction. Can It Be Skillful?

A new field of study, “decadal prediction,” is emerging in climate science. Decadal prediction lies between seasonal/interannual forecasting and longer-term climate change projections, and focuses on time-evolving regional climate conditions over the next 10–30 yr. Numerous assessments of climate information user needs have identified this time scale as being important to infrastructure planners, water resource managers, and many others. It is central to the information portfolio required to adapt effectively to and through climatic changes. At least three factors influence time-evolving regional climate at the decadal time scale: 1) climate change commitment (further warming as the coupled climate system comes into adjustment with increases of greenhouse gases that have already occurred), 2) external forcing, particularly from future increases of greenhouse gases and recovery of the ozone hole, and 3) internally generated variability. Some decadal prediction skill has been demonstrated to arise from the first two of these factors, and there is evidence that initialized coupled climate models can capture mechanisms of internally generated decadal climate variations, thus increasing predictive skill globally and particularly regionally. Several methods have been proposed for initializing global coupled climate models for decadal predictions, all of which involve global time-evolving three-dimensional ocean data, including temperature and salinity. An experimental framework to address decadal predictability/prediction is described in this paper and has been incorporated into the coordinated Coupled Model Intercomparison Model, phase 5 (CMIP5) experiments, some of which will be assessed for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). These experiments will likely guide work in this emerging field over the next 5 yr.

Response of the lower St. Lawrence Estuary to external forcing in winter

Mostly because of a lack of observations, fundamental aspects of the St. Lawrence Estuary's wintertime response to forcing remain poorly understood. The results of a field campaign over the winter of 2002/03 in the estuary are presented. The response of the system to tidal forcing is assessed through the use of harmonic analyses of temperature, salinity, sea level, and current observations. The analyses confirm previous evidence for the presence of semidiurnal internal tides, albeit at greater depths than previously observed for ice-free months. The low-frequency tidal streams were found to be mostly baroclinic in character and to produce an important neap tide intensification of the estuarine circulation. Despite stronger atmospheric momentum forcing in winter, the response is found to be less coherent with the winds than seen in previous studies of ice-free months. The tidal residuals show the cold intermediate layer in the estuary is renewed rapidly ( 14 days) in late March by the advection of a wedge of near-freezing waters from the Gulf of St. Lawrence. In situ processes appeared to play a lesser role in the renewal of this layer. In particular, significant wintertime deepening of the estuarine surface mixed layer was prevented by surface stability, which remained high throughout the winter. The observations also suggest that the bottom circulation was intensified during winter, with the intrusion in the deep layer of relatively warm Atlantic waters, such that the 3 C isotherm rose from below 150 m to near 60 m.

Coriolis perturbations in the infrared spectrum of diborane

High‐resolution infrared spectra of B2H6 vapor are reported. The sample was prepared from the naturally occurring 11B☒10B isotopic mixture. The rotational structure of the infrared bands has been analysed for Coriolis perturbations due to rotation about the axis of least moment of inertia (the B⋅⋅⋅B axis). The following results have been obtained: (a) interaction between the Type A fundamental ν18 and the inactive fundamental ν5 has been observed, thus confirming the assignment of ν5 at 833 cm—1, giving ∣ ζ5,18Z ∣=0.55±0.05; (b) interaction observed between the Type A combination band (ν10+ν12) at 1283 cm—1 and the inactive combination (ν10+ν7) gives an estimate of the unobserved fundamental ν7 as 850±30 cm—1, and an estimate of ∣ ζ7,12Z ∣=0.6±0.1; (c) the absence of any observed perturbation of the Type C fundamental ν14 at 973 cm—1, suggests, by negative arguments, that either the unobserved fundamental ν9 does not lie in the frequency range 900 to 1100 cm—1, or ∣ ζ9,14Z ∣<0.2. The assignment of the unobserved fundamental vibrations of diborane is discussed in the light of this evidence.

Stereo and motion parallax cues in human 3D vision: can they vanish without a trace?

In an immersive virtual reality environment, subjects fail to notice when a scene expands or contracts around them, despite correct and consistent information from binocular stereopsis and motion parallax, resulting in gross failures of size constancy (A. Glennerster, L. Tcheang, S. J. Gilson, A. W. Fitzgibbon, & A. J. Parker, 2006). We determined whether the integration of stereopsis/motion parallax cues with texture-based cues could be modified through feedback. Subjects compared the size of two objects, each visible when the room was of a different size. As the subject walked, the room expanded or contracted, although subjects failed to notice any change. Subjects were given feedback about the accuracy of their size judgments, where the “correct” size setting was defined either by texture-based cues or (in a separate experiment) by stereo/motion parallax cues. Because of feedback, observers were able to adjust responses such that fewer errors were made. For texture-based feedback, the pattern of responses was consistent with observers weighting texture cues more heavily. However, for stereo/motion parallax feedback, performance in many conditions became worse such that, paradoxically, biases moved away from the point reinforced by the feedback. This can be explained by assuming that subjects remap the relationship between stereo/motion parallax cues and perceived size or that they develop strategies to change their criterion for a size match on different trials. In either case, subjects appear not to have direct access to stereo/motion parallax cues.

On the recursive sequence Xn = axn-1+bxn-2/c+dxn-1xn-2

In this Paper, we study the invariant intervals, the global attractivity of the equilibrium points, and the asymptotic behavior of the solutions of the difference equation x(n) = ax(n-1) + bx(n-2) / c + dx(n-1)x(n-2), n =1, 2, ..., where a greater than or equal to 0, b, c, d > 0. (C) 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Bistable systems with stochastic noise: virtues and limits of effective one-dimensional Langevin equations

The understanding of the statistical properties and of the dynamics of multistable systems is gaining more and more importance in a vast variety of scientific fields. This is especially relevant for the investigation of the tipping points of complex systems. Sometimes, in order to understand the time series of given observables exhibiting bimodal distributions, simple one-dimensional Langevin models are fitted to reproduce the observed statistical properties, and used to investing-ate the projected dynamics of the observable. This is of great relevance for studying potential catastrophic changes in the properties of the underlying system or resonant behaviours like those related to stochastic resonance-like mechanisms. In this paper, we propose a framework for encasing this kind of studies, using simple box models of the oceanic circulation and choosing as observable the strength of the thermohaline circulation. We study the statistical properties of the transitions between the two modes of operation of the thermohaline circulation under symmetric boundary forcings and test their agreement with simplified one-dimensional phenomenological theories. We extend our analysis to include stochastic resonance-like amplification processes. We conclude that fitted one-dimensional Langevin models, when closely scrutinised, may result to be more ad-hoc than they seem, lacking robustness and/or well-posedness. They should be treated with care, more as an empiric descriptive tool than as methodology with predictive power.

Microsaccades distinguish between global and local visual processing

Much is known about the functional mechanisms involved in visual search. Yet, the fundamental question of whether the visual system can perform different types of visual analysis at different spatial resolutions still remains unsettled. In the visual-attention literature, the distinction between different spatial scales of visual processing corresponds to the distinction between distributed and focused attention. Some authors have argued that singleton detection can be performed in distributed attention, whereas others suggest that even such a simple visual operation involves focused attention. Here we showed that microsaccades were spatially biased during singleton discrimination but not during singleton detection. The results provide support to the hypothesis that some coarse visual analysis can be performed in a distributed attention mode.