Changing European storm loss potentials under modified climate conditions according to ensemble simulations of the ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 GMC

A simple storm loss model is applied to an ensemble of ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 GCM simulations in order to estimate changes of insured loss potentials over Europe in the 21st century. Losses are computed based on the daily maximum wind speed for each grid point. The calibration of the loss model is performed using wind data from the ERA40-Reanalysis and German loss data. The obtained annual losses for the present climate conditions (20C, three realisations) reproduce the statistical features of the historical insurance loss data for Germany. The climate change experiments correspond to the SRES-Scenarios A1B and A2, and for each of them three realisations are considered. On average, insured loss potentials increase for all analysed European regions at the end of the 21st century. Changes are largest for Germany and France, and lowest for Portugal/Spain. Additionally, the spread between the single realisations is large, ranging e.g. for Germany from −4% to +43% in terms of mean annual loss. Moreover, almost all simulations show an increasing interannual variability of storm damage. This assessment is even more pronounced if no adaptation of building structure to climate change is considered. The increased loss potentials are linked with enhanced values for the high percentiles of surface wind maxima over Western and Central Europe, which in turn are associated with an enhanced number and increased intensity of extreme cyclones over the British Isles and the North Sea.

Differential effect of beetroot bread on postprandial DBP according to Glu298Asp polymorphism in the eNOS gene: a pilot study.

Our objective was to investigate whether the presence of Glu298Asp polymorphism in the endothelial NO synthase (eNOS) gene differentially affects the postprandial blood pressure response to dietary nitrate-rich beetroot bread. A randomised, single-blind, controlled, crossover acute pilot study was performed in 14 healthy men (mean age: 34±9 years) who were retrospectively genotyped for Glu298Asp polymorphism (7GG; T carriers 7). Volunteers were randomised to receive 200 g beetroot-enriched bread (1.1 mmol nitrate) or control bread (no beetroot; 0.01 mmol nitrate) on two separate occasions 10 days apart. Baseline and incremental area under the curve of blood pressure and NOx (nitrate/nitrite) were measured for a 6-h postprandial period. A treatment × genotype interaction was observed for diastolic blood pressure (P<0.02), which was significantly lower in T carriers (P<0.01) after consumption of beetroot bread compared with control bread. No significant differences were observed in the GG group. The beneficial diastolic blood pressure reduction was observed only in the T carriers of the Glu298Asp polymorphism in the eNOS gene after consumption of nitrate-rich beetroot bread. These data require confirmation in a larger population group.

Predicting early data revisions to US GDP and the effects of releases on equity markets

The effects of data uncertainty on real-time decision-making can be reduced by predicting early revisions to US GDP growth. We show that survey forecasts efficiently anticipate the first-revised estimate of GDP, but that forecasting models incorporating monthly economic indicators and daily equity returns provide superior forecasts of the second-revised estimate. We consider the implications of these findings for analyses of the impact of surprises in GDP revision announcements on equity markets, and for analyses of the impact of anticipated future revisions on announcement-day returns.

Acute benefits of the microbial-derived isoflavone metabolite equol on arterial stiffness in men prospectively recruited according to equol producer phenotype: a double-blind randomized controlled trial

There is much speculation with regard to the potential cardioprotective benefits of equol, a microbial-derived metabolite of the isoflavone daidzein, which is produced in the large intestine after soy intake in 30% of Western populations. Although cross-sectional and retrospective data support favorable associations between the equol producer (EP) phenotype and cardiometabolic health, few studies have prospectively recruited EPs to confirm this association. The aim was to determine whether the acute vascular benefits of isoflavones differ according to EP phenotype and subsequently investigate the effect of providing commercially produced S-(–)equol to non-EPs. We prospectively recruited male EPs and non-EPs (n = 14/ group) at moderate cardiovascular risk into a double-blind, placebocontrolled crossover study to examine the acute effects of soy isoflavones (80-mg aglycone equivalents) on arterial stiffness [carotid-femoral pulse-wave velocity (cfPWV)], blood pressure, endothelial function (measured by using the EndoPAT 2000; Itamar Medical), and nitric oxide at baseline (0 h) and 6 and 24 h after intake. In a separate assessment, non-EPs consumed 40 mg S-(–)equol with identical vascular measurements performed 2 h after intake. After soy intake, cfPWV significantly improved in EPs at 24 h (cfPWV change from 0 h: isoflavone, 20.2 6 0.2 m/s; placebo, 0.6 6 0.2 m/s; P , 0.01), which was significantly associated with plasma equol concentrations (R = 20.36, P = 0.01). No vascular effects were observed in EPs at 6 h or in non-EPs at any time point. Similarly, no benefit of commercially produced S-(–)equol was observed in non-EPs despite mean plasma equol concentrations reaching 3.2 mmol/L. Acute soy intake improved cfPWV in EPs, equating to an 11–12% reduced risk of cardiovascular disease if sustained. However, a single dose of commercially produced equol had no cardiovascular benefits in non-EPs. These data suggest that the EP phenotype is critical in unlocking the vascular benefits of equol in men, and long-term trials should focus on confirming the implications of EP phenotype on cardiovascular health. This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT01530893. Am J Clin Nutr doi: 10.3945/ajcn.115.125690.

Current intakes of EPA and DHA in European populations and the potential of animal-derived foods to increase them

The beneficial effects of long-chain (C chain >= 20) n-3 PUFA are well documented and, overall, increased intake reduces risk of CVD. Recent evidence also points to a role in reducing, age-related decline in cognitive function. The two key fatty acids are EPA (20:5) and DHA (22:6), with current UK recommendation for adults being 450 mg EPA + DHA/d. Whilst some EPA and DHA can be synthesised in vivo from alpha-linolenic acid, recent data indicate this source to be very limited, Suggesting that EPA and DHA should be classified as dietary essentials. In many parts of Europe the daily intake of EPA + DHA by adults and especially young adults (18-24 years) is < 100 mg/d, since many never eat oily fish. Poultry meat contributes small but worthwhile amounts of EPA+DHA. Studies to enrich the EPA+DHA content of animal-derived foods mainly use fish oil in the diet of the animal. Recent work has shown that such enrichment has the potential to provide to the UK adult diet a daily intake of EPA+DHA of about 230 mg, with poultry meat providing the largest amount (74 mg). There are. however. concerns that the Continued and possibly increased use of fish oils in animals diets is not Sustainable and alternative approaches are being examined, including the genetic modification of certain plants to allow them to synthesise EPA and DHA from shorter-chain precursors.

Current intakes of EPA and DHA in European populations and the potential of animal-derived foods to increase them

The beneficial effects of long-chain (C chain >= 20) n-3 PUFA are well documented and, overall, increased intake reduces risk of CVD. Recent evidence also points to a role in reducing, age-related decline in cognitive function. The two key fatty acids are EPA (20:5) and DHA (22:6), with current UK recommendation for adults being 450 mg EPA + DHA/d. Whilst some EPA and DHA can be synthesised in vivo from alpha-linolenic acid, recent data indicate this source to be very limited, Suggesting that EPA and DHA should be classified as dietary essentials. In many parts of Europe the daily intake of EPA + DHA by adults and especially young adults (18-24 years) is < 100 mg/d, since many never eat oily fish. Poultry meat contributes small but worthwhile amounts of EPA+DHA. Studies to enrich the EPA+DHA content of animal-derived foods mainly use fish oil in the diet of the animal. Recent work has shown that such enrichment has the potential to provide to the UK adult diet a daily intake of EPA+DHA of about 230 mg, with poultry meat providing the largest amount (74 mg). There are. however. concerns that the Continued and possibly increased use of fish oils in animals diets is not Sustainable and alternative approaches are being examined, including the genetic modification of certain plants to allow them to synthesise EPA and DHA from shorter-chain precursors.

Effect of sex and genotype on cardiovascular biomarker response to fish oils: the FINGEN Study

Background: The lipid-modulatory effects of high intakes of the fish-oil fatty acids eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) are well established and likely to contribute to cardioprotective benefits. Objectives: We aimed to determine the effect of moderate EPA and DHA intakes (< 2 g EPA + DHA/d) on the plasma fatty acid profile, lipid and apolipoprotein concentrations, lipoprotein subclass distribution, and markers of oxidative status. We also aimed to examine the effect of age, sex, and apolipoprotein E (APOE) genotype on the observed responses. Design: Three hundred twelve adults aged 20-70 y, who were prospectively recruited according to age, sex, and APOE genotype, completed a double-blind placebo-controlled crossover study. Participants consumed control oil, 0.7 g EPA + DHA/d (0.7FO), and 1.8 g EPA + DHA/d (1.8FO) capsules in random order, each for an 8-wk intervention period, separated by 12-wk washout periods. Results: In the group as a whole, 8% and 11% lower plasma triacylglycerol concentrations were evident after 0.7FO and 1.8FO, respectively (P < 0.001): significant sex x treatment (P = 0.038) and sex x genotype x treatment (P = 0.032) interactions were observed, and the greatest triacylglycerol-lowering responses (reductions of 15% and 23% after 0.7FO and 1.8FO, respectively) were evident in APOE4 men. Furthermore, lower VLDL-cholesterol (P = 0.026) and higher LDL-cholesterol (P = 0.010), HDL-cholesterol (P < 0.001), and HDL2 (P < 0.001) concentrations were evident after fish-oil intervention. Conclusions: Supplements providing EPA + DHA at doses as low as 0.7 g/d have a significant effect on the plasma lipid profile. The results of the current trial, which used a prospective recruitment approach to examine the responses in population subgroups, are indicative of a greater triacylglycerol-lowering action of long-chain n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids in males than in females.

Effect of sex and genotype on cardiovascular biomarker response to fish oils: the FINGEN Study

Background: The lipid-modulatory effects of high intakes of the fish-oil fatty acids eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) are well established and likely to contribute to cardioprotective benefits. Objectives: We aimed to determine the effect of moderate EPA and DHA intakes (< 2 g EPA + DHA/d) on the plasma fatty acid profile, lipid and apolipoprotein concentrations, lipoprotein subclass distribution, and markers of oxidative status. We also aimed to examine the effect of age, sex, and apolipoprotein E (APOE) genotype on the observed responses. Design: Three hundred twelve adults aged 20-70 y, who were prospectively recruited according to age, sex, and APOE genotype, completed a double-blind placebo-controlled crossover study. Participants consumed control oil, 0.7 g EPA + DHA/d (0.7FO), and 1.8 g EPA + DHA/d (1.8FO) capsules in random order, each for an 8-wk intervention period, separated by 12-wk washout periods. Results: In the group as a whole, 8% and 11% lower plasma triacylglycerol concentrations were evident after 0.7FO and 1.8FO, respectively (P < 0.001): significant sex x treatment (P = 0.038) and sex x genotype x treatment (P = 0.032) interactions were observed, and the greatest triacylglycerol-lowering responses (reductions of 15% and 23% after 0.7FO and 1.8FO, respectively) were evident in APOE4 men. Furthermore, lower VLDL-cholesterol (P = 0.026) and higher LDL-cholesterol (P = 0.010), HDL-cholesterol (P < 0.001), and HDL2 (P < 0.001) concentrations were evident after fish-oil intervention. Conclusions: Supplements providing EPA + DHA at doses as low as 0.7 g/d have a significant effect on the plasma lipid profile. The results of the current trial, which used a prospective recruitment approach to examine the responses in population subgroups, are indicative of a greater triacylglycerol-lowering action of long-chain n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids in males than in females.

Interaction between BMI and APOE genotype is associated with changes in the plasma long-chain-PUFA response to a fish-oil supplement in healthy participants

BACKGROUND: Carriers of the apolipoprotein E ɛ4 (APOE4) allele are lower responders to a docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) supplement than are noncarriers. This effect could be exacerbated in overweight individuals because DHA metabolism changes according to body mass index (BMI; in kg/m²). OBJECTIVES: We evaluated the plasma fatty acid (FA) response to a DHA-rich supplement in APOE4 carriers and noncarriers consuming a high-saturated fat diet (HSF diet) and, in addition, evaluated whether being overweight changed this response. DESIGN: This study was part of the SATgenɛ trial. Forty-one APOE4 carriers and 41 noncarriers were prospectively recruited and consumed an HSF diet for 8-wk followed by 8 wk of consumption of an HSF diet with the addition of DHA and eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) (HSF + DHA diet; 3.45 g DHA/d and 0.5 g EPA/d). Fasting plasma samples were collected at the end of each intervention diet. Plasma total lipids (TLs) were separated into free FAs, neutral lipids (NLs), and phospholipids by using solid-phase extraction, and FA profiles in each lipid class were quantified by using gas chromatography. RESULTS: Because the plasma FA response to the HSF + DHA diet was correlated with BMI in APOE4 carriers but not in noncarriers, the following 2 groups were formed according to the BMI median: low BMI (<25.5) and high BMI (≥25.5). In response to the HSF + DHA diet, there were significant BMI × genotype interactions for changes in plasma concentrations of arachidonic acid and DHA in phospholipids and TLs and of EPA in NLs and TLs (P ≤ 0.05). APOE4 carriers were lower plasma responders to the DHA supplement than were noncarriers but only in the high-BMI group. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicate that apolipoprotein E genotype and BMI may be important variables that determine the plasma long-chain PUFA response to dietary fat manipulation. APOE4 carriers with BMI ≥25.5 may need higher intakes of DHA for cardiovascular or other health benefits than do noncarriers

Fish oil intakes providing dietary attainable levels of EPA and DHA reduces blood pressure in adults with systolic hypertension in a retrospective analysis

Background: Although a large number of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) have examined the impact of the n-3 (ω-3) fatty acids EPA (20:5n-3) and DHA (22:6n-3) on blood pressure and vascular function, the majority have used doses of EPA+DHA of > 3 g per d,which are unlikely to be achieved by diet manipulation. Objective: The objective was to examine, using a retrospective analysis from a multi-center RCT, the impact of recommended, dietary achievable EPA+DHA intakes on systolic and diastolic blood pressure and microvascular function in UK adults. Design: Healthy men and women (n = 312) completed a double-blind, placebo-controlled RCT consuming control oil, or fish oil providing 0.7 g or 1.8 g EPA+DHA per d in random order each for 8 wk. Fasting blood pressure and microvascular function (using Laser Doppler Iontophoresis) were assessed and plasma collected for the quantification of markers of vascular function. Participants were retrospectively genotyped for the eNOS rs1799983 variant. Results: No impact of n-3 fatty acid treatment or any treatment * eNOS genotype interactions were evident in the group as a whole for any of the clinical or biochemical outcomes. Assessment of response according to hypertension status at baseline indicated a significant (P=0.046) fish oil-induced reduction (mean 5 mmHg) in systolic blood pressure specifically in those with isolated systolic hypertension (n=31). No dose response was observed. Conclusions: These findings indicate that, in those with isolated systolic hypertension, daily doses of EPA+DHA as low as 0.7 g bring about clinically meaningful blood pressure reductions which, at a population level, would be associated with lower cardiovascular disease risk. Confirmation of findings in an RCT where participants are prospectively recruited on the basis of blood pressure status is required to draw definite conclusions. The Journal of Nutrition NUTRITION/2015/220475 Version 4