Don’t trust your poll lead: how public opinion changes during referendum campaigns

Politicians call (or call for) referendums with increasing frequency. But how can they know they will win? Looking at the polls is not enough: opinion during referendum campaigns is often volatile. But this chapter shows that there are nevertheless some recurring patterns that allow us to make reasonable predictions in most cases.

Vox Populi, Vox Dei? A closer look at the ‘public opinion’ argument for retention

The Japanese government’s justification for retaining the death penalty is that abolition would erode the legitimacy of and public trust in the criminal justice system, leading to victims’ families taking justice into their own hands. This justification is based on the results of a regularly administered public opinion survey, which is said to show strong public support for the death penalty. However, a close analysis of the results of the 2014 survey fails to validate this claim. Just over a third of respondents were committed to retaining the death penalty at all costs, while the rest accepted the possibility of future abolition, with some of them seeing this as contingent on the introduction of life imprisonment without parole as an alternative sentence. These findings hardly describe a society that expects the strict application of the death penalty and whose trust in justice depends on the government’s commitment to retaining it. My reading of the 2014 survey is that the Japanese public is ready to embrace abolition. Japan, after all, is a signatory to the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, which calls on states not to delay or prevent abolition, so this should be welcome news for the Japanese government!

世論という神話―望むのは「死刑」ですか？’ (Public opinion myth: is ‘death’ what we really want?)

This paper summarises Mai Sato's recent report on public attitudes to the death penalty in Japan.

Il/legitimate risks? Occupational health and safety and the public in Britain, c. 1960-2015

The last 20 years have seen the emergence of a popular climate of antipathy towards occupational health and safety regulation within the UK, particularly within the mainstream British media. The governance of health and safety has thus in recent years become an increasingly visible and contested public and political issue. The extent of this contestation, and its impact on the State’s governance of health and safety in the workplace and beyond, is explained and historicized within this chapter. Why has public rhetoric about health and safety apparently become so important in framing the ways in which the State could legitimately act in recent years? The chapter demonstrates how since 1960 the State remained a significant player – one among many, admittedly – and that while its roles in managing health and safety had long been bounded by a number of factors, a variable that emerged with particular saliency over the last 20 years has been a mediated notion of ‘public opinion’. This focus serves to remind us of the ways in which State action has at certain moments been pushed in particular directions by factors beyond formal mechanisms of rule.

Understanding the seriousness of corporate crime: Some lessons for the new 'corporate manslaughter' offence

The measurement of public attitudes towards the criminal law has become an important area of research in recent years because of the perceived desirability of ensuring that the legal system reflects broader societal values. In particular, studies into public perceptions of crime seriousness have attempted to measure the degree of concordance that exists between law and public opinion in the organization and enforcement of criminal offences. These understandings of perceived crime seriousness are particularly important in relation to high-profile issues where public confidence in the law is central to the legal agenda, such as the enforcement of work-related fatality cases. A need to respond to public concern over this issue was cited as a primary justification for the introduction of the Corporate Manslaughter and Corporate Homicide Act 2007. This article will suggest that, although literature looking at the perceived seriousness of corporate crime and, particularly, health and safety offences is limited in volume and generalist in scope, important lessons can be gleaned from existing literature, and pressing questions are raised that demand further empirical investigation.

Orde Wingate and the Special Night Squads: A Feasible Policy for Counter-Terrorism?

This article analyses the counter-terrorist operations carried out by Captain (later Major General) Orde Wingate in Palestine in 1938, and considers whether these might inform current operations. Wingate's Special Night Squads were formed from British soldiers and Jewish police specifically to counter terrorist and sabotage attacks. Their approach escalated from interdicting terrorist gangs to pre-emptive attacks on suspected terrorist sanctuaries to reprisal attacks after terrorist atrocities. They continued the British practice of using irregular units in counter-insurgency, which was sustained into the postwar era and contributed to the evolution of British Special Forces. Wingate's methods proved effective in pacifying terrorist-infested areas and could be applied again, but only in the face of 'friction' arising from changes in cultural attitudes since the 1930s, and from the political-strategic context of post-2001 counter-insurgent and counter-terrorist operations. In some cases, however, public opinion might not preclude the use of some of Wingate's techniques.

Technologies for biological containment of GM and Non-GM crops

International Perspective The development of GM technology continues to expand into increasing numbers of crops and conferred traits. Inevitably, the focus remains on the major field crops of soybean, maize, cotton, oilseed rape and potato with introduced genes conferring herbicide tolerance and/or pest resistance. Although there are comparatively few GM crops that have been commercialised to date, GM versions of 172 plant species have been grown in field trials in 31 countries. European Crops with Containment Issues Of the 20 main crops in the EU there are four for which GM varieties are commercially available (cotton, maize for animal feed and forage, and oilseed rape). Fourteen have GM varieties in field trials (bread wheat, barley, durum wheat, sunflower, oats, potatoes, sugar beet, grapes, alfalfa, olives, field peas, clover, apples, rice) and two have GM varieties still in development (rye, triticale). Many of these crops have hybridisation potential with wild and weedy relatives in the European flora (bread wheat, barley, oilseed rape, durum wheat, oats, sugar beet and grapes), with escapes (sunflower); and all have potential to cross-pollinate fields non-GM crops. Several fodder crops, forestry trees, grasses and ornamentals have varieties in field trials and these too may hybridise with wild relatives in the European flora (alfalfa, clover, lupin, silver birch, sweet chestnut, Norway spruce, Scots pine, poplar, elm, Agrostis canina, A. stolonifera, Festuca arundinacea, Lolium perenne, L. multiflorum, statice and rose). All these crops will require containment strategies to be in place if it is deemed necessary to prevent transgene movement to wild relatives and non-GM crops. Current Containment Strategies A wide variety of GM containment strategies are currently under development, with a particular focus on crops expressing pharmaceutical products. Physical containment in greenhouses and growth rooms is suitable for some crops (tomatoes, lettuce) and for research purposes. Aquatic bioreactors of some non-crop species (algae, moss, and duckweed) expressing pharmaceutical products have been adopted by some biotechnology companies. There are obvious limitations of the scale of physical containment strategies, addressed in part by the development of large underground facilities in the US and Canada. The additional resources required to grow plants underground incurs high costs that in the long term may negate any advantage of GM for commercial productioNatural genetic containment has been adopted by some companies through the selection of either non-food/feed crops (algae, moss, duckweed) as bio-pharming platforms or organisms with no wild relatives present in the local flora (safflower in the Americas). The expression of pharmaceutical products in leafy crops (tobacco, alfalfa, lettuce, spinach) enables growth and harvesting prior to and in the absence of flowering. Transgenically controlled containment strategies range in their approach and degree of development. Plastid transformation is relatively well developed but is not suited to all traits or crops and does not offer complete containment. Male sterility is well developed across a range of plants but has limitations in its application for fruit/seed bearing crops. It has been adopted in some commercial lines of oilseed rape despite not preventing escape via seed. Conditional lethality can be used to prevent flowering or seed development following the application of a chemical inducer, but requires 100% induction of the trait and sufficient application of the inducer to all plants. Equally, inducible expression of the GM trait requires equally stringent application conditions. Such a method will contain the trait but will allow the escape of a non-functioning transgene. Seed lethality (‘terminator’ technology) is the only strategy at present that prevents transgene movement via seed, but due to public opinion against the concept it has never been trialled in the field and is no longer under commercial development. Methods to control flowering and fruit development such as apomixis and cleistogamy will prevent crop-to-wild and wild-to-crop pollination, but in nature both of these strategies are complex and leaky. None of the genes controlling these traits have as yet been identified or characterised and therefore have not been transgenically introduced into crop species. Neither of these strategies will prevent transgene escape via seed and any feral apomicts that form are arguably more likely to become invasives. Transgene mitigation reduces the fitness of initial hybrids and so prevents stable introgression of transgenes into wild populations. However, it does not prevent initial formation of hybrids or spread to non-GM crops. Such strategies could be detrimental to wild populations and have not yet been demonstrated in the field. Similarly, auxotrophy prevents persistence of escapes and hybrids containing the transgene in an uncontrolled environment, but does not prevent transgene movement from the crop. Recoverable block of function, intein trans-splicing and transgene excision all use recombinases to modify the transgene in planta either to induce expression or to prevent it. All require optimal conditions and 100% accuracy to function and none have been tested under field conditions as yet. All will contain the GM trait but all will allow some non-native DNA to escape to wild populations or to non-GM crops. There are particular issues with GM trees and grasses as both are largely undomesticated, wind pollinated and perennial, thus providing many opportunities for hybridisation. Some species of both trees and grass are also capable of vegetative propagation without sexual reproduction. There are additional concerns regarding the weedy nature of many grass species and the long-term stability of GM traits across the life span of trees. Transgene stability and conferred sterility are difficult to trial in trees as most field trials are only conducted during the juvenile phase of tree growth. Bio-pharming of pharmaceutical and industrial compounds in plants Bio-pharming of pharmaceutical and industrial compounds in plants offers an attractive alternative to mammalian-based pharmaceutical and vaccine production. Several plantbased products are already on the market (Prodigene’s avidin, β-glucuronidase, trypsin generated in GM maize; Ventria’s lactoferrin generated in GM rice). Numerous products are in clinical trials (collagen, antibodies against tooth decay and non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma from tobacco; human gastric lipase, therapeutic enzymes, dietary supplements from maize; Hepatitis B and Norwalk virus vaccines from potato; rabies vaccines from spinach; dietary supplements from Arabidopsis). The initial production platforms for plant-based pharmaceuticals were selected from conventional crops, largely because an established knowledge base already existed. Tobacco and other leafy crops such as alfalfa, lettuce and spinach are widely used as leaves can be harvested and no flowering is required. Many of these crops can be grown in contained greenhouses. Potato is also widely used and can also be grown in contained conditions. The introduction of morphological markers may aid in the recognition and traceability of crops expressing pharmaceutical products. Plant cells or plant parts may be transformed and maintained in culture to produce recombinant products in a contained environment. Plant cells in suspension or in vitro, roots, root cells and guttation fluid from leaves may be engineered to secrete proteins that may be harvested in a continuous, non-destructive manner. Most strategies in this category remain developmental and have not been commercially adopted at present. Transient expression produces GM compounds from non-GM plants via the utilisation of bacterial or viral vectors. These vectors introduce the trait into specific tissues of whole plants or plant parts, but do not insert them into the heritable genome. There are some limitations of scale and the field release of such crops will require the regulation of the vector. However, several companies have several transiently expressed products in clinical and pre-clinical trials from crops raised in physical containment.

Advanced skills teachers: professional identity and status

The teaching profession continues to struggle with defining itself in relation to other professions. Even though public opinion positions teachers second only to doctors and nurses in terms of their professional status and prestige research in the UK suggests that teachers still believe that they have much lower status than other professions. With teacher job satisfaction considerably lower today than the past and on-going issues with teacher recruitment and retention, new government policies have set out to enhance the status of teachers both within and outside of the profession. The Advanced Skill Teacher (AST) grade was introduced in 1998 as a means to recognise and reward teaching expertise and was framed as a way of also raising the status of the teaching profession. As to what a teaching professional should look like, the AST was in many ways positioned as the embodiment. Using survey data from 849 ASTs and in depth interviews with 31, this paper seeks to explores the ways that the AST designation impacts or not on teachers’ perceptions of their professional identity. In particular, the paper considers whether such awards contribute in positive ways to a teacher’s sense of professional identity and status. The results from the research suggest that teaching grades that recognise and reward teaching excellence do contribute in important ways to a teachers’ professional identity via an increased sense of recognition, reward and job satisfaction. The results from this research also suggest that recognising the skills and expertise of teachers is clearly important in supporting teacher retention. This is because as it allows highly accomplished teachers to remain where they want to be and that is the classroom.

The UK's Electoral Reform Referendum of May 2011

The UK’s second nationwide referendum, held in May 2011, offers rich opportunities for analysing the dynamics of a referendum campaign. The articles gathered together in this symposium address three themes. The first concerns the determinants and dynamics of public opinion during a referendum campaign, the second relates to the potential for interaction between the referendum and simultaneous elections, and the third focuses on coverage of the referendum in the media. Following a brief outline of the background to the referendum, this paper introduces the contribution that each article makes to these themes.

The politics of in-work benefits: The case of the ‘active income of solidarity’ in France

In-work benefits have been introduced in a number of Bismarckian welfare regimes in a context of austerity despite being targeted at politically weak constituents and representing a deviation from prevailing welfare institutions. This article addresses this puzzle by looking at the introduction in 2008 of an in-work benefit scheme in France, the Active Income of Solidarity. The analysis reveals that this reform was the result of a cross-cutting alliance between the conservative party and employers, as well as parts of the socialist party and the union movement. The alliance was possible thanks to actors’ multiple interpretations of the reform. The reform was difficult to oppose given its support by experts and public opinion and because it entailed an increase in revenues for low-income workers.

Terrorism and cabinet duration

Terrorism can strengthen or weaken electoral support for ruling governments. We show in a simple model of coalition formation that, regardless of the direction of a public opinion shock, the impact of terrorism on cabinet duration is ambiguous. However, in an analysis of a data set including 2,400 cabinets in over 150 countries in the period 1970–2002, we find that terrorism, on average, shortens cabinet duration. This result is robust for a range of alternative terror measures and is present in both democratic as well as autocratic political regimes.

The United States in Southern Africa: Chester Crocker's linkage strategy 1981-1988

Chester Crocker was appointed as Reagan's Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs in 1981. He had criticised the inconsistencies of US African policy and proposed a renewed emphasis on the balance between America's global interests with specific regional priorities. While the focus of Congressmen, journalists and public opinion centred on the issue of apartheid, it was the Namibian War of Independence (South African Border War) that initially drew the attention of the Reagan administration, and it was the resolution of this war that remained the priority for the US government in this region throughout Crocker's time in office.