Asymmetric output gap effects in Phillips Curve and mark-up pricing models: evidence for the US and the UK

A number of studies have found an asymmetric response of consumer price index inflation to the output gap in the US in simple Phillips curve models. We consider whether there are similar asymmetries in mark-up pricing models, that is, whether the mark-up over producers' costs also depends upon the sign of the (adjusted) output gap. The robustness of our findings to the price series is assessed, and also whether price-output responses in the UK are asymmetric.

The small open-economy New Keynesian Phillips Curve: empirical evidence and implied inflation dynamics

In this paper we apply GMM estimation to assess the relevance of domestic versus external determinants of CPI inflation dynamics in a sample of OECD countries typically classified as open economies. The analysis is based on a variant of the small open-economy New Keynesian Phillips Curve derived in Galí and Monacelli (Rev Econ Stud 72:707–734, 2005), where the novel feature is that expectations about fluctuations in the terms of trade enter explicitly. For most countries in our sample the expected relative change in the terms of trade emerges as the more relevant inflation driver than the contemporaneous domestic output gap.

Inflation dynamics in the new EU member states: how relevant are external factors?

In this paper we evaluate the relative influence of external versus domestic inflation drivers in the 12 new European Union (EU) member countries. Our empirical analysis is based on the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) derived in Galí and Monacelli (2005) for small open economies (SOE). Employing the generalized method of moments (GMM), we find that the SOE NKPC is well supported in the new EU member states. We also find that the inflation process is dominated by domestic variables in the larger countries of our sample, whereas external variables are mostly relevant in the smaller countries.

Determining the effect of asymmetric data on the variogram. I. Underlying asymmetry

Matheron's usual variogram estimator can result in unreliable variograms when data are strongly asymmetric or skewed. Asymmetry in a distribution can arise from a long tail of values in the underlying process or from outliers that belong to another population that contaminate the primary process. This paper examines the effects of underlying asymmetry on the variogram and on the accuracy of prediction, and the second one examines the effects arising from outliers. Standard geostatistical texts suggest ways of dealing with underlying asymmetry; however, this is based on informed intuition rather than detailed investigation. To determine whether the methods generally used to deal with underlying asymmetry are appropriate, the effects of different coefficients of skewness on the shape of the experimental variogram and on the model parameters were investigated. Simulated annealing was used to create normally distributed random fields of different size from variograms with different nugget:sill ratios. These data were then modified to give different degrees of asymmetry and the experimental variogram was computed in each case. The effects of standard data transformations on the form of the variogram were also investigated. Cross-validation was used to assess quantitatively the performance of the different variogram models for kriging. The results showed that the shape of the variogram was affected by the degree of asymmetry, and that the effect increased as the size of data set decreased. Transformations of the data were more effective in reducing the skewness coefficient in the larger sets of data. Cross-validation confirmed that variogram models from transformed data were more suitable for kriging than were those from the raw asymmetric data. The results of this study have implications for the 'standard best practice' in dealing with asymmetry in data for geostatistical analyses. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Determining the effect of asymmetric data on the variogram. II. Outliers

Asymmetry in a distribution can arise from a long tail of values in the underlying process or from outliers that belong to another population that contaminate the primary process. The first paper of this series examined the effects of the former on the variogram and this paper examines the effects of asymmetry arising from outliers. Simulated annealing was used to create normally distributed random fields of different size that are realizations of known processes described by variograms with different nugget:sill ratios. These primary data sets were then contaminated with randomly located and spatially aggregated outliers from a secondary process to produce different degrees of asymmetry. Experimental variograms were computed from these data by Matheron's estimator and by three robust estimators. The effects of standard data transformations on the coefficient of skewness and on the variogram were also investigated. Cross-validation was used to assess the performance of models fitted to experimental variograms computed from a range of data contaminated by outliers for kriging. The results showed that where skewness was caused by outliers the variograms retained their general shape, but showed an increase in the nugget and sill variances and nugget:sill ratios. This effect was only slightly more for the smallest data set than for the two larger data sets and there was little difference between the results for the latter. Overall, the effect of size of data set was small for all analyses. The nugget:sill ratio showed a consistent decrease after transformation to both square roots and logarithms; the decrease was generally larger for the latter, however. Aggregated outliers had different effects on the variogram shape from those that were randomly located, and this also depended on whether they were aggregated near to the edge or the centre of the field. The results of cross-validation showed that the robust estimators and the removal of outliers were the most effective ways of dealing with outliers for variogram estimation and kriging. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The synthesis of chiral N-heterocyclic carbene–borane and –diorganoborane complexes and their use in the asymmetric reduction of ketones

Chiral N-heterocyclic carbene–borane complexes have been synthesised, and have been shown to reduce ketones with Lewis acid promotion. Chiral N-heterocyclic carbene–borane and –diorganoborane complexes can reduce ketones with enantioselectivities up to 75% and 85% ee, respectively.

Study of the lactation curve in dairy cattle on farms in Central Mexico

Accurate knowledge of lactation curves has an important relevance to management and research of dairy production systems. A number of equations have been proposed to describe the lactation curve, the most widely applied being the gamma equation. The objective of this work was to compare and evaluate candidate functions for their predictive ability in describing lactation curves from central Mexican dairy cows reared under 2 contrasting management systems. Five equations were considered: Gaines ( exponential decay), Wood ( gamma equation), Rook ( Michaelis-Menten x exponential), and 2 more mechanistic ones (Dijkstra and Pollott). A database consisting of 701 and 1283 records of cows in small-scale and intensive systems, respectively, was used in the analysis. Before analysis, the database was divided into 6 groups representing first, second, and third and higher parity cows in both systems. In all cases except second and above parity cows in small-scale systems, all models improved on the Gaines equation. The Wood equation explained much of the variation, but its parameters do not have direct biological interpretation. Although the Rook equation fitted the data well, some of the parameter estimates were not significant. The Dijkstra equation consistently gave better predictions, and its parameters were usually statistically significant and lend themselves to physiological interpretation. As such, the differences between systems and parity could be explained due to variations in theoretical initial milk production at parturition, specific rates of secretory cell proliferation and death, and rate of decay, all of which are parameters in the model. The Pollott equation, although containing the most biology, was found to be over-parameterized and resulted in nonsignificant parameter estimates. For central Mexican dairy cows, the Dijkstra equation was the best option to use in describing the lactation curve.

The effect of potato variety mixtures on epidemics of late blight, in relation to plot size and level of resistance

Potatoes of a number of varieties of contrasting levels of resistance were planted in pure or mixed stands in four experiments over 3 years. Three experiments compared the late blight severity and progress in mixtures with that in pure stands. Disease on susceptible or moderately resistant varieties typical of those in commercial use was similar in mixtures and pure stands. In 2 of 3 years, there were slight reductions on cv. Sante, which is moderately susceptible, in mixture with cv. Cara, which is moderately resistant. Cara was unaffected by this mixture. Mixtures of an immune or near-immune partner with Cara or Sante substantially reduced disease on the latter. The effect of the size of plots of individual varieties or mixtures on blight severity was compared in two experiments. Larger plots had a greater area under the disease progress curve, but the average rate of disease progress was greater in smaller plots; this may be because most disease progress took place later, under more favourable conditions, in the smaller plots. In one experiment, two planting densities were used. Density had no effect on disease and did not interact with mixture effects. The overall conclusion is that, while mixtures of potato varieties may be desirable for other reasons, they do not offer any improvement on the average of the disease resistance of the components.

Total synthesis of (+/-) maculalactone A, maculalactone B and maculalactone C and the determination of the absolute configuration of natural (+) maculalactone A by asymmetric synthesis

Maculalactones A, B and C from the marine cyanobacterium Kyrtuthrix maculans are amongst the only compounds based on the tribenzylbutyrolactone skeleton known in nature and (+) maculalactone A from the natural source possesses significant biological activity against various marine herbivores and marine settlers. We now report a concise synthesis of racemic maculalactone A in five steps from inexpensive starting materials. Maculalactones B and C were synthesized by a minor modification to this procedure, and the synthetic design also permitted an asymmetric synthesis of maculalactone A to be achieved in around 85% ee. The (+) and (-) enantiomers of maculalactone A were assigned, respectively, to the S and R configurations on the basis of the chiral selectivity expected for catecholborane reduction of an unsymmetrical ketone in the presence of Corey's oxazoborolidine catalyst. Surprisingly, it appeared that natural (+) maculalactone A was biosynthesized in K. maculans in a partially racemic form, comprising ca. 90-95% of the (S) enantiomer and 5-10% of its (R) enantiomer. Coincidentally therefore, the percentage enantiomeric excess of the product obtained from asymmetric synthesis almost exactly matched that found in nature. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Asymmetric synthesis of (1R,2S,3R)-3-methylcispentacin and (1S,2S,3R)-3-methyltranspentacin by kinetic resolution of tert-butyl (+/-)-3-methylcyclopentene-1-carboxylate

Conjugate addition of lithium dibenzylamide to tert-butyl (+/-)-3-methylcyclopentene-1-carboxylate occurs with high levels of stereocontrol, with preferential addition of lithium dibenzylamide to the face of the cyclic alpha,beta-unsaturated acceptor anti- to the 3-methyl substituent. High levels of enantiorecognition are observed between tert-butyl (+/-)-3-methylcyclopentene-1-carboxylate and an excess of lithium (+/-)-N-benzyl-N-alpha-methylbenzylamide (10 eq.) (E > 140) in their mutual kinetic resolution, while the kinetic resolution of tert-butyl (+/-)-3-methylcyclopentene-1-carboxylate with lithium (S)-N-benzyl-N-alpha-methylbenzylamide proceeds to give, at 51% conversion, tert-butyl (1R, 2S, 3R,alphaS)-3-methyl-2-N-benzyl-N-alpha-methylbenzylaminocyclopentane-1-c arboxylate consistent with E > 130, and in 39% yield and 99 +/- 0.5% de after purification. Subsequent deprotection by hydrogenolysis and ester hydrolysis gives (1R, 2S, 3R)-3-methylcispentacin in > 98% de and 98 +/- 1% ee. Selective epimerisation of tert-butyl (1R, 2S, 3R, alphaS)-3-methyl-2-N- benzyl-N-alpha-methylbenzylaminocyclopentane-1-carboxylate by treatment with (KOBu)-Bu-t in (BuOH)-Bu-t gives tert-butyl (1S, 2S, 3R, alphaS)-3-methyl-2-N-benzyl-N-alpha-methylbenzylaminocyclopentane-1-carb oxylate in quantitative yield and in > 98% de, with subsequent deprotection by hydrogenolysis and ester hydrolysis giving (1S, 2S, 3R)-3-methyltranspentacin hydrochloride in > 98% de and 97 +/- 1% ee.