Echoes of 1992: the NAFTA negotiations and North America now

Two decades ago, Canada, Mexico, and the United States created a continental economy. The road to integration from the signing of the North American Free Trade Agreement has not been a smooth one. Along the way, Mexico lived through a currency crisis, a democratic transition, and the rising challenge of Asian manufacturing. Canada stayed united despite surging Quebecois nationalism during the 1990s; since then, it has seen dramatic economic changes with the explosion of hydrocarbon production and a much stronger currency. The United States saw a stock-market bust, the shock of 9/11, and the near-collapse of its financial system. All of these events have transformed the relationships that emerged after NAFTA entered into force in 1994. Given the tremendous changes, one might be skeptical that the circumstances and details of the negotiation and ratification of NAFTA hold lessons for the future of North America. However, the road to NAFTA had its own difficulties, and many of the issues involved in the negotiations underpin today's challenges. NAFTA was conceived at a time of profound change in the international system. When Mexican leaders surveyed the world two decades ago, they saw emerging regional groupings in Europe, Asia, and South America. Faced with a lack of interest or compatibility, they instead doubled down on North America. How did Mexican leaders reconsider their national interests and redefine Mexico's role in the world in light of those transformations? Unpublished Mexican documents from SECOFI, the secretariate most involved in negotiating NAFTA, help illustrate Mexican thinking about its interests and role at that time. Combining those insights with analysis of newly available evidence from U.S. presidential archives, this paper sheds light on the negotiations that concluded two decades ago.

Alkyl nitrates in outflow from North America over the North Atlantic during Intercontinental Transport of Ozone and Precursors 2004

This paper is based on alkyl nitrate measurements made over the North Atlantic as part of the International Consortium for Research on Atmospheric Transport and Transformation (ICARTT). The focus is on the analysis of air samples collected on the UK BAe-146 aircraft during the Intercontinental Transport of Ozone and Precursors (ITOP) project, but air samples collected on board the NASA DC-8 and NOAA WP-3D aircraft as part of a Lagrangian experiment are also used. The ratios between the alkyl nitrates and their parent hydrocarbons are compared with those expected from chemical theory. Further, a box model is run to investigate the temporal evolution of the alkyl nitrates in three Lagrangian case studies and compared to observations. The air samples collected during ITOP do not appear to be strongly influenced by oceanic sources, but rather are influenced by emissions from the N.E. United States and from Alaskan fires. There also appears to be a widespread common source of ethyl nitrate and 1-propyl nitrate other than from their parent hydrocarbons. The general agreement between the alkyl nitrate data and photochemical theory suggests that during the first few days of transport from the source region, photochemical production of alkyl nitrates, and thus ozone, had taken place. The observations in the more photochemically processed air masses are consistent with the alkyl nitrate production reactions no longer dominating the peroxy radical self/cross reactions. Further, the results also suggest that the rates of photochemical processing in the Alaskan smoke plumes were small.

The phylogeography of salmonid proliferative kidney disease in Europe and North America

Salmonid proliferative kidney disease (PKD) is caused by the myxozoan Tetracapsuloides bryosalmonae. Given the serious and apparently growing impact of PKD on farmed and wild salmonids, we undertook a phylogeographic study to gain insights into the history of genealogical lineages of T. bryosalmonae in Europe and North America, and to determine if the global expansion of rainbow trout farming has spread the disease. Phylogenetic analyses of internal transcribed spacer 1 sequences revealed a clade composed of all North American sequences plus a subset of Italian and French sequences. High genetic diversity in North America and the absence of genotypes diagnostic of the North American clade in the rest of Europe imply that southern Europe was colonized by immigration from North America; however, sequence divergence suggests that this colonization substantially pre-dated fisheries activities. Furthermore, the lack of southern European lineages in the rest of Europe, despite widespread rainbow trout farming, indicates that T. bryosalmonae is not transported through fisheries activities. This result strikingly contrasts with the commonness of fisheries-related introductions of other pathogens and parasites and indicates that fishes may be dead-end hosts. Our results also demonstrate that European strains of T. bryosalmonae infect and induce PKD in rainbow trout introduced to Europe.

Annual CREMRU-JCI survey of corporate real estate practices in Europe and North America: 1993-2002

The annual survey of corporate real estate practices has been conducted by CREMRU since 1993 and in collaboration with Johnsons Controls Inc. since 1997. This year the survey forms the first stage of a broader research project: International Survey of Corporate Real Estate Practices: longitudinal study 1993-2002, being undertaken for the Innovative Construction Research Centre at the University of Reading, funded by the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council. The survey has been endorsed by CoreNet, the leading professional association concerned with corporate real estate, which opened it to a wider audience. This summary of the ten annual surveys focuses on the incidence of corporate real estate management (CREM) policies, functions and activities, as well as the assessment of knowledge or skills relevant to the CREM function in the future. Both are of vital interest to educational institutions concerned with this field, as well as the personnel and training functions within organisations concerned with better management of their property.

Annual CREMRU-JCI survey of corporate estate management practices in Europe and North America: 1993-1997

This paper summarizes the results of the 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996 and 1997 surveys of chief real estate officers (CREO) from major organizations in Europe and North America. Since 1997 the annual survey is being undertaken jointly by the Corporate Real Estate Management Research Unit (CREMRU) and Johnson Controls Incorporate (JCI). The annual survey has been supported by the International Development Research Council (IDRC) and the International Association of Corporate Real Estate Executives (NACORE International), two leading professional associations concerned with this field of professional activity. The emphasis of this summary is on two aspects of the survey: the incidence of corporate real estate management (CREM) policies, functions and activities; and the assessment of knowledge or skills relevant to the CREM function in the future. Both are of paramount interest to the educational institutions concerned with CREM on both sides of the Atlantic. This includes the educational organs of international organizations concerned with corporate real estate, such as IDRC and NACORE, which play increasingly important roles in the education of their members. The CREMRUJCI annual survey will hopefully offer a useful tool in the international educational effort in this field

The basic ingredients of the North Atlantic storm track. Part I: land-sea contrast and orography

Understanding and predicting changes in storm tracks over longer time scales is a challenging problem, particularly in the North Atlantic. This is due in part to the complex range of forcings (land–sea contrast, orography, sea surface temperatures, etc.) that combine to produce the structure of the storm track. The impact of land–sea contrast and midlatitude orography on the North Atlantic storm track is investigated through a hierarchy of GCM simulations using idealized and “semirealistic” boundary conditions in a high-resolution version of the Hadley Centre atmosphere model (HadAM3). This framework captures the large-scale essence of features such as the North and South American continents, Eurasia, and the Rocky Mountains, enabling the results to be applied more directly to realistic modeling situations than was possible with previous idealized studies. The physical processes by which the forcing mechanisms impact the large-scale flow and the midlatitude storm tracks are discussed. The characteristics of the North American continent are found to be very important in generating the structure of the North Atlantic storm track. In particular, the southwest–northeast tilt in the upper tropospheric jet produced by southward deflection of the westerly flow incident on the Rocky Mountains leads to enhanced storm development along an axis close to that of the continent’s eastern coastline. The approximately triangular shape of North America also enables a cold pool of air to develop in the northeast, intensifying the surface temperature contrast across the eastern coastline, consistent with further enhancements of baroclinicity and storm growth along the same axis.

Wildfire responses to abrupt climate change in North America

It is widely accepted, based on data from the last few decades and on model simulations, that anthropogenic climate change will cause increased fire activity. However, less attention has been paid to the relationship between abrupt climate changes and heightened fire activity in the paleorecord. We use 35 charcoal and pollen records to assess how fire regimes in North America changed during the last glacial–interglacial transition (15 to 10 ka), a time of large and rapid climate changes. We also test the hypothesis that a comet impact initiated continental-scale wildfires at 12.9 ka; the data do not support this idea, nor are continent-wide fires indicated at any time during deglaciation. There are, however, clear links between large climate changes and fire activity. Biomass burning gradually increased from the glacial period to the beginning of the Younger Dryas. Although there are changes in biomass burning during the Younger Dryas, there is no systematic trend. There is a further increase in biomass burning after the Younger Dryas. Intervals of rapid climate change at 13.9, 13.2, and 11.7 ka are marked by large increases in fire activity. The timing of changes in fire is not coincident with changes in human population density or the timing of the extinction of the megafauna. Although these factors could have contributed to fire-regime changes at individual sites or at specific times, the charcoal data indicate an important role for climate, and particularly rapid climate change, in determining broad-scale levels of fire activity.

A land cover map of Latin America and the Caribbean in the framework of the SERENA project

Land cover maps at different resolutions and mapping extents contribute to modeling and support decision making processes. Because land cover affects and is affected by climate change, it is listed among the 13 terrestrial essential climate variables. This paper describes the generation of a land cover map for Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) for the year 2008. It was developed in the framework of the project Latin American Network for Monitoring and Studying of Natural Resources (SERENA), which has been developed within the GOFC-GOLD Latin American network of remote sensing and forest fires (RedLaTIF). The SERENA land cover map for LAC integrates: 1) the local expertise of SERENA network members to generate the training and validation data, 2) a methodology for land cover mapping based on decision trees using MODIS time series, and 3) class membership estimates to account for pixel heterogeneity issues. The discrete SERENA land cover product, derived from class memberships, yields an overall accuracy of 84% and includes an additional layer representing the estimated per-pixel confidence. The study demonstrates in detail the use of class memberships to better estimate the area of scarce classes with a scattered spatial distribution. The land cover map is already available as a printed wall map and will be released in digital format in the near future. The SERENA land cover map was produced with a legend and classification strategy similar to that used by the North American Land Change Monitoring System (NALCMS) to generate a land cover map of the North American continent, that will allow to combine both maps to generate consistent data across America facilitating continental monitoring and modeling