90 resultados para Asset Securitization Risks
em CentAUR: Central Archive University of Reading - UK
Resumo:
Objectives - To assess the general public's interpretation of the verbal descriptors for side effect frequency recommended for use in medicine information leaflets by a European Union (EU) guideline, and to examine the extent to which differences in interpretation affect people's perception of risk and their judgments of intention to comply with the prescribed treatment. Method - Two studies used a controlled empirical methodology in which people were presented with a hypothetical, but realistic, scenario about visiting their general practitioner and being prescribed medication. They were given an explanation that focused on the side effects of the medicine, together with information about the probability of occurrence using either numerical percentages or the corresponding EU verbal descriptors. Interpretation of the descriptors was assessed. In study 2, participants were also required to make various judgments, including risk to health and intention to comply. Key findings - In both studies, use of the EU recommended descriptors led to significant overestimations of the likelihood of particular side effects occurring. Study 2 further showed that the "overestimation" resulted in significantly increased ratings of perceived severity of side effects and risk to health, as well as significantly reduced ratings of intention to comply, compared with those for people who received the probability information in numerical form. Conclusion - While it is recognised that the current findings require replication in a clinical setting, the European and national authorities should suspend the use of the EU recommended terms until further research is available to allow the use of an evidence-based approach.
Resumo:
This paper aims to summarise the current performance of ozone data assimilation (DA) systems, to show where they can be improved, and to quantify their errors. It examines 11 sets of ozone analyses from 7 different DA systems. Two are numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems based on general circulation models (GCMs); the other five use chemistry transport models (CTMs). The systems examined contain either linearised or detailed ozone chemistry, or no chemistry at all. In most analyses, MIPAS (Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding) ozone data are assimilated; two assimilate SCIAMACHY (Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Chartography) observations instead. Analyses are compared to independent ozone observations covering the troposphere, stratosphere and lower mesosphere during the period July to November 2003. Biases and standard deviations are largest, and show the largest divergence between systems, in the troposphere, in the upper-troposphere/lower-stratosphere, in the upper-stratosphere and mesosphere, and the Antarctic ozone hole region. However, in any particular area, apart from the troposphere, at least one system can be found that agrees well with independent data. In general, none of the differences can be linked to the assimilation technique (Kalman filter, three or four dimensional variational methods, direct inversion) or the system (CTM or NWP system). Where results diverge, a main explanation is the way ozone is modelled. It is important to correctly model transport at the tropical tropopause, to avoid positive biases and excessive structure in the ozone field. In the southern hemisphere ozone hole, only the analyses which correctly model heterogeneous ozone depletion are able to reproduce the near-complete ozone destruction over the pole. In the upper-stratosphere and mesosphere (above 5 hPa), some ozone photochemistry schemes caused large but easily remedied biases. The diurnal cycle of ozone in the mesosphere is not captured, except by the one system that includes a detailed treatment of mesospheric chemistry. These results indicate that when good observations are available for assimilation, the first priority for improving ozone DA systems is to improve the models. The analyses benefit strongly from the good quality of the MIPAS ozone observations. Using the analyses as a transfer standard, it is seen that MIPAS is similar to 5% higher than HALOE (Halogen Occultation Experiment) in the mid and upper stratosphere and mesosphere (above 30 hPa), and of order 10% higher than ozonesonde and HALOE in the lower stratosphere (100 hPa to 30 hPa). Analyses based on SCIAMACHY total column are almost as good as the MIPAS analyses; analyses based on SCIAMACHY limb profiles are worse in some areas, due to problems in the SCIAMACHY retrievals.
Resumo:
A simple and practical technique for assessing the risks, that is, the potential for error, and consequent loss, in software system development, acquired during a requirements engineering phase is described. The technique uses a goal-based requirements analysis as a framework to identify and rate a set of key issues in order to arrive at estimates of the feasibility and adequacy of the requirements. The technique is illustrated and how it has been applied to a real systems development project is shown. How problems in this project could have been identified earlier is shown, thereby avoiding costly additional work and unhappy users.
Resumo:
The EU-funded research project ALARM will develop and test methods and protocols for the assessment of large-scale environmental risks in order to minimise negative human impacts. Research focuses on the assessment and forecast of changes in biodiversity and in the structure, function, and dynamics of ecosystems. This includes the relationships between society, the economy and biodiversity.
Resumo:
This toxicology update reviews research over the past four years since publication in 2004 of the first measurement of intact esters of p-hydroxybenzoic acid (parabens) in human breast cancer tissues, and the suggestion that their presence in the human body might originate from topical application of bodycare cosmetics. The presence of intact paraben esters in human body tissues has now been confirmed by independent measurements in human urine, and the ability of parabens to penetrate human skin intact without breakdown by esterases and to be absorbed systemically has been demonstrated through studies not only in vitro but also in vivo using healthy human subjects. Using a wide variety of assay systems in vitro and in vivo, the oestrogen agonist properties of parabens together with their common metabolite (p-hydroxybenzoic acid) have been extensively documented, and, in addition, the parabens have now also been shown to possess androgen antagonist activity, to act as inhibitors of sulfotransferase enzymes and to possess genotoxic activity. With the continued use of parabens in the majority of bodycare cosmetics, there is a need to carry out detailed evaluation of the potential for parabens, together with other oestrogenic and genotoxic co-formulants of bodycare cosmetics, to increase female breast cancer incidence, to interfere with male reproductive functions and to influence development of malignant melanoma which has also recently been shown to be influenced by oestrogenic stimulation. Copyright (C) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Resumo:
The differential transmission of alleles from parents to affected children indicates that the locus under investigation is either directly involved in the occurrence of the disease or that there are allelic associations with other loci that are directly involved. Conditional logistic regression applied to a diallelic locus leads to a test with two degrees of freedom. The power of a single degree of freedom test to detect non-multiplicative allelic effects is discussed here.
Resumo:
It is generally acknowledged that population-level assessments provide,I better measure of response to toxicants than assessments of individual-level effects. population-level assessments generally require the use of models to integrate potentially complex data about the effects of toxicants on life-history traits, and to provide a relevant measure of ecological impact. Building on excellent earlier reviews we here briefly outline the modelling options in population-level risk assessment. Modelling is used to calculate population endpoints from available data, which is often about Individual life histories, the ways that individuals interact with each other, the environment and other species, and the ways individuals are affected by pesticides. As population endpoints, we recommend the use of population abundance, population growth rate, and the chance of population persistence. We recommend two types of model: simple life-history models distinguishing two life-history stages, juveniles and adults; and spatially-explicit individual-based landscape models. Life-history models are very quick to set up and run, and they provide a great deal or insight. At the other extreme, individual-based landscape models provide the greatest verisimilitude, albeit at the cost of greatly increased complexity. We conclude with a discussion of the cations of the severe problems of parameterising models.