Predictability of the western North Pacific summer climate demonstrated by the coupled models of ENSEMBLES

The Asian monsoon system, including the western North Pacific (WNP), East Asian, and Indian monsoons, dominates the climate of the Asia-Indian Ocean-Pacific region, and plays a significant role in the global hydrological and energy cycles. The prediction of monsoons and associated climate features is a major challenge in seasonal time scale climate forecast. In this study, a comprehensive assessment of the interannual predictability of the WNP summer climate has been performed using the 1-month lead retrospective forecasts (hindcasts) of five state-of-the-art coupled models from ENSEMBLES for the period of 1960–2005. Spatial distribution of the temporal correlation coefficients shows that the interannual variation of precipitation is well predicted around the Maritime Continent and east of the Philippines. The high skills for the lower-tropospheric circulation and sea surface temperature (SST) spread over almost the whole WNP. These results indicate that the models in general successfully predict the interannual variation of the WNP summer climate. Two typical indices, the WNP summer precipitation index and the WNP lower-tropospheric circulation index (WNPMI), have been used to quantify the forecast skill. The correlation coefficient between five models’ multi-model ensemble (MME) mean prediction and observations for the WNP summer precipitation index reaches 0.66 during 1979–2005 while it is 0.68 for the WNPMI during 1960–2005. The WNPMI-regressed anomalies of lower-tropospheric winds, SSTs and precipitation are similar between observations and MME. Further analysis suggests that prediction reliability of the WNP summer climate mainly arises from the atmosphere–ocean interaction over the tropical Indian and the tropical Pacific Ocean, implying that continuing improvement in the representation of the air–sea interaction over these regions in CGCMs is a key for long-lead seasonal forecast over the WNP and East Asia. On the other hand, the prediction of the WNP summer climate anomalies exhibits a remarkable spread resulted from uncertainty in initial conditions. The summer anomalies related to the prediction spread, including the lower-tropospheric circulation, SST and precipitation anomalies, show a Pacific-Japan or East Asia-Pacific pattern in the meridional direction over the WNP. Our further investigations suggest that the WNPMI prediction spread arises mainly from the internal dynamics in air–sea interaction over the WNP and Indian Ocean, since the local relationships among the anomalous SST, circulation, and precipitation associated with the spread are similar to those associated with the interannual variation of the WNPMI in both observations and MME. However, the magnitudes of these anomalies related to the spread are weaker, ranging from one third to a half of those anomalies associated with the interannual variation of the WNPMI in MME over the tropical Indian Ocean and subtropical WNP. These results further support that the improvement in the representation of the air–sea interaction over the tropical Indian Ocean and subtropical WNP in CGCMs is a key for reducing the prediction spread and for improving the long-lead seasonal forecast over the WNP and East Asia.

Multinational subsidiary sales and performance in South East Asia

We extend the theory of the multinational enterprise (MNE) by exploring the concept of subsidiary-specific advantages (SSAs) as a driver for subsidiary performance. We investigate the relationship of host country-specific advantages (host CSAs) in the form of market attractiveness, SSAs and subsidiary sales as they affect subsidiary performance. From an original primary dataset of 101 British multinational (MNE) subsidiaries in six South East Asian countries, our analysis reveals three significant findings. First, host market attractiveness has a statistically positive impact on the performance of subsidiaries. Second, the three traditional SSAs of general management, marketing capabilities and invested capital enhance subsidiary performance. Third, we examine geographic direction and types of customers for subsidiary sales by following international accounting standards. We find that these subsidiaries generate on average 95 percent of total sales from the Asia Pacific region and 91 percent of total sales from external customers. Our findings have important research and managerial implications.

Modelling monsoons: understanding and predicting current and future behaviour

The global monsoon system is so varied and complex that understanding and predicting its diverse behaviour remains a challenge that will occupy modellers for many years to come. Despite the difficult task ahead, an improved monsoon modelling capability has been realized through the inclusion of more detailed physics of the climate system and higher resolution in our numerical models. Perhaps the most crucial improvement to date has been the development of coupled ocean-atmosphere models. From subseasonal to interdecadal time scales, only through the inclusion of air-sea interaction can the proper phasing and teleconnections of convection be attained with respect to sea surface temperature variations. Even then, the response to slow variations in remote forcings (e.g., El Niño—Southern Oscillation) does not result in a robust solution, as there are a host of competing modes of variability that must be represented, including those that appear to be chaotic. Understanding the links between monsoons and land surface processes is not as mature as that explored regarding air-sea interactions. A land surface forcing signal appears to dominate the onset of wet season rainfall over the North American monsoon region, though the relative role of ocean versus land forcing remains a topic of investigation in all the monsoon systems. Also, improved forecasts have been made during periods in which additional sounding observations are available for data assimilation. Thus, there is untapped predictability that can only be attained through the development of a more comprehensive observing system for all monsoon regions. Additionally, improved parameterizations - for example, of convection, cloud, radiation, and boundary layer schemes as well as land surface processes - are essential to realize the full potential of monsoon predictability. A more comprehensive assessment is needed of the impact of black carbon aerosols, which may modulate that of other anthropogenic greenhouse gases. Dynamical considerations require ever increased horizontal resolution (probably to 0.5 degree or higher) in order to resolve many monsoon features including, but not limited to, the Mei-Yu/Baiu sudden onset and withdrawal, low-level jet orientation and variability, and orographic forced rainfall. Under anthropogenic climate change many competing factors complicate making robust projections of monsoon changes. Absent aerosol effects, increased land-sea temperature contrast suggests strengthened monsoon circulation due to climate change. However, increased aerosol emissions will reflect more solar radiation back to space, which may temper or even reduce the strength of monsoon circulations compared to the present day. Precipitation may behave independently from the circulation under warming conditions in which an increased atmospheric moisture loading, based purely on thermodynamic considerations, could result in increased monsoon rainfall under climate change. The challenge to improve model parameterizations and include more complex processes and feedbacks pushes computing resources to their limit, thus requiring continuous upgrades of computational infrastructure to ensure progress in understanding and predicting current and future behaviour of monsoons.

Enhancing the oxidative stability of rice crackers by addition of the ethanolic extract of phytochemicals from Cratoxylum formosum Dyer

Craloxylum formosum Dyer is consumed throughout the year as food and medicine in Thailand. It contains large amounts of chlorogenic acid and quinic acid derivatives. The antioxidative activity of the extract was studied in refined soybean oil coating on rice crackers without any seasoning. They were stored in accelerated oxidation conditions at 40 degrees C, 80% relative humidity (RH) in the dark for 18 days. The oxidative state of each sample was monitored by analyzing of the peroxide value (PV) and thiobarbituric acid reactive substances (TBARS) as well as by odor analysis by quantitative descriptive analysis (QDA). The C formosum extract was more effective than alpha-tocopherol due to metal ions present in the crackers, which resulted in alpha-tocopherol being less effective as an antioxidant. Sensory odor attributes of rice crackers were related more closely to TBARS than to PV values by linear regression analysis. The present study indicated that C. formosum extract was a promising source of a natural food antioxidant and was effective in inhibiting lipid oxidation in rice crackers.

Effects of probiotic or prebiotic supplemented milk formulas on fecal microbiota composition of infants

The aim of the study was to evaluate whether supplementation of milk-formulas with prebiotic fructooligosaccharides or a probiotic, Lactobacillus johnsonii La1 (La1), could modulate the composition of the fecal microbiota of formula-fed infants, compared to breastfed (BF) infants. Ninety infants close to 4 months of age were randomized into one of three groups to be blindly assigned to receive for 13 weeks: a) an infant formula (Control), b) the same formula with fructo-oligosaccharides (Prebio), or c) with La1 (Probio). At the end of this period, all infants received the control formula for 2 additional weeks. Twenty-six infants, breastfed throughout the study, were recruited to form group BF. Fecal samples were obtained upon enrolment and after 7 and 15 weeks. Bacterial populations were assessed with classical culture techniques and fluorescent in situ hybridisation (FISH). Seventy-six infants completed the study. On enrolment, higher counts of Bifidobacterium and Lactobacillus and lower counts of enterobacteria were observed in BF compared to the formula-fed infants; these differences tended to disappear at weeks 7 and 15. No major differences for Clostridium, Bacteroides or Enterococcus were observed between the groups or along the follow up. Probio increased fecal Lactobacillus counts (P<0.001); 88% of the infants in this group excreted live La1 in their stools at week 7 but only 17% at week 15. Increased Bifidobacterium counts were observed at week 7 in the 3 formula groups, similar to BF infants. These results confirm the presence of higher counts of bifidobacteria and lactobacilli in the microbiota of BF infants compared to formula-fed infants before dietary diversification, and that La1 survives in the infant digestive tract.

Paralelled Two-Pass Hexagonal algorithm for motion estimation

This paper presents a paralleled Two-Pass Hexagonal (TPA) algorithm constituted by Linear Hashtable Motion Estimation Algorithm (LHMEA) and Hexagonal Search (HEXBS) for motion estimation. In the TPA, Motion Vectors (MV) are generated from the first-pass LHMEA and are used as predictors for second-pass HEXBS motion estimation, which only searches a small number of Macroblocks (MBs). We introduced hashtable into video processing and completed parallel implementation. We propose and evaluate parallel implementations of the LHMEA of TPA on clusters of workstations for real time video compression. It discusses how parallel video coding on load balanced multiprocessor systems can help, especially on motion estimation. The effect of load balancing for improved performance is discussed. The performance of the algorithm is evaluated by using standard video sequences and the results are compared to current algorithms.

Quantitative evaluation of three reconfiguration strategies on FPGAs: a case study

Reconfigurable computing is becoming an important new alternative for implementing computations. Field programmable gate arrays (FPGAs) are the ideal integrated circuit technology to experiment with the potential benefits of using different strategies of circuit specialization by reconfiguration. The final form of the reconfiguration strategy is often non-trivial to determine. Consequently, in this paper, we examine strategies for reconfiguration and, based on our experience, propose general guidelines for the tradeoffs using an area-time metric called functional density. Three experiments are set up to explore different reconfiguration strategies for FPGAs applied to a systolic implementation of a scalar quantizer used as a case study. Quantitative results for each experiment are given. The regular nature of the example means that the results can be generalized to a wide class of industry-relevant problems based on arrays.