10 resultados para Approximation en probabilité

em CentAUR: Central Archive University of Reading - UK


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We consider a finite element approximation of the sixth order nonlinear degenerate parabolic equation ut = ?.( b(u)? 2u), where generically b(u) := |u|? for any given ? ? (0,?). In addition to showing well-posedness of our approximation, we prove convergence in space dimensions d ? 3. Furthermore an iterative scheme for solving the resulting nonlinear discrete system is analysed. Finally some numerical experiments in one and two space dimensions are presented.

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Little attention has been focussed on a precise definition and evaluation mechanism for project management risk specifically related to contractors. When bidding, contractors traditionally price risks using unsystematic approaches. The high business failure rate our industry records may indicate that the current unsystematic mechanisms contractors use for building up contingencies may be inadequate. The reluctance of some contractors to include a price for risk in their tenders when bidding for work competitively may also not be a useful approach. Here, instead, we first define the meaning of contractor contingency, and then we develop a facile quantitative technique that contractors can use to estimate a price for project risk. This model will help contractors analyse their exposure to project risks; and help them express the risk in monetary terms for management action. When bidding for work, they can decide how to allocate contingencies strategically in a way that balances risk and reward.

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In this paper, we study the approximation of solutions of the homogeneous Helmholtz equation Δu + ω 2 u = 0 by linear combinations of plane waves with different directions. We combine approximation estimates for homogeneous Helmholtz solutions by generalized harmonic polynomials, obtained from Vekua’s theory, with estimates for the approximation of generalized harmonic polynomials by plane waves. The latter is the focus of this paper. We establish best approximation error estimates in Sobolev norms, which are explicit in terms of the degree of the generalized polynomial to be approximated, the domain size, and the number of plane waves used in the approximations.

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We consider the approximation of solutions of the time-harmonic linear elastic wave equation by linear combinations of plane waves. We prove algebraic orders of convergence both with respect to the dimension of the approximating space and to the diameter of the domain. The error is measured in Sobolev norms and the constants in the estimates explicitly depend on the problem wavenumber. The obtained estimates can be used in the h- and p-convergence analysis of wave-based finite element schemes.

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The assumed relationship between ice particle mass and size is profoundly important in radar retrievals of ice clouds, but, for millimeter-wave radars, shape and preferred orientation are important as well. In this paper the authors first examine the consequences of the fact that the widely used ‘‘Brown and Francis’’ mass–size relationship has often been applied to maximumparticle dimension observed by aircraftDmax rather than to the mean of the particle dimensions in two orthogonal directions Dmean, which was originally used by Brown and Francis. Analysis of particle images reveals that Dmax ’ 1.25Dmean, and therefore, for clouds for which this mass–size relationship holds, the consequences are overestimates of ice water content by around 53% and of Rayleigh-scattering radar reflectivity factor by 3.7 dB. Simultaneous radar and aircraft measurements demonstrate that much better agreement in reflectivity factor is provided by using this mass–size relationship with Dmean. The authors then examine the importance of particle shape and fall orientation for millimeter-wave radars. Simultaneous radar measurements and aircraft calculations of differential reflectivity and dual-wavelength ratio are presented to demonstrate that ice particles may usually be treated as horizontally aligned oblate spheroids with an axial ratio of 0.6, consistent with them being aggregates. An accurate formula is presented for the backscatter cross section apparent to a vertically pointing millimeter-wave radar on the basis of a modified version of Rayleigh–Gans theory. It is then shown that the consequence of treating ice particles as Mie-scattering spheres is to substantially underestimate millimeter-wave reflectivity factor when millimeter-sized particles are present, which can lead to retrieved ice water content being overestimated by a factor of 4.h

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A cloud-resolving model is modified to implement the weak temperature gradient approximation in order to simulate the interactions between tropical convection and the large-scale tropical circulation. The instantaneous domain-mean potential temperature is relaxed toward a reference profile obtained from a radiative–convective equilibrium simulation of the cloud-resolving model. For homogeneous surface conditions, the model state at equilibrium is a large-scale circulation with its descending branch in the simulated column. This is similar to the equilibrium state found in some other studies, but not all. For this model, the development of such a circulation is insensitive to the relaxation profile and the initial conditions. Two columns of the cloud-resolving model are fully coupled by relaxing the instantaneous domain-mean potential temperature in both columns toward each other. This configuration is energetically closed in contrast to the reference-column configuration. No mean large-scale circulation develops over homogeneous surface conditions, regardless of the relative area of the two columns. The sensitivity to nonuniform surface conditions is similar to that obtained in the reference-column configuration if the two simulated columns have very different areas, but it is markedly weaker for columns of comparable area. The weaker sensitivity can be understood as being a consequence of a formulation for which the energy budget is closed. The reference-column configuration has been used to study the convection in a local region under the influence of a large-scale circulation. The extension to a two-column configuration is proposed as a methodology for studying the influence on local convection of changes in remote convection.

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The validity of approximating radiative heating rates in the middle atmosphere by a local linear relaxation to a reference temperature state (i.e., ‘‘Newtonian cooling’’) is investigated. Using radiative heating rate and temperature output from a chemistry–climate model with realistic spatiotemporal variability and realistic chemical and radiative parameterizations, it is found that a linear regressionmodel can capture more than 80% of the variance in longwave heating rates throughout most of the stratosphere and mesosphere, provided that the damping rate is allowed to vary with height, latitude, and season. The linear model describes departures from the climatological mean, not from radiative equilibrium. Photochemical damping rates in the upper stratosphere are similarly diagnosed. Threeimportant exceptions, however, are found.The approximation of linearity breaks down near the edges of the polar vortices in both hemispheres. This nonlinearity can be well captured by including a quadratic term. The use of a scale-independentdamping rate is not well justified in the lower tropical stratosphere because of the presence of a broad spectrum of vertical scales. The local assumption fails entirely during the breakup of the Antarctic vortex, where large fluctuations in temperature near the top of the vortex influence longwave heating rates within the quiescent region below. These results are relevant for mechanistic modeling studies of the middle atmosphere, particularly those investigating the final Antarctic warming.

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We study the approximation of harmonic functions by means of harmonic polynomials in two-dimensional, bounded, star-shaped domains. Assuming that the functions possess analytic extensions to a delta-neighbourhood of the domain, we prove exponential convergence of the approximation error with respect to the degree of the approximating harmonic polynomial. All the constants appearing in the bounds are explicit and depend only on the shape-regularity of the domain and on delta. We apply the obtained estimates to show exponential convergence with rate O(exp(−b square root N)), N being the number of degrees of freedom and b>0, of a hp-dGFEM discretisation of the Laplace equation based on piecewise harmonic polynomials. This result is an improvement over the classical rate O(exp(−b cubic root N )), and is due to the use of harmonic polynomial spaces, as opposed to complete polynomial spaces.

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In this work, we prove a weak Noether-type Theorem for a class of variational problems that admit broken extremals. We use this result to prove discrete Noether-type conservation laws for a conforming finite element discretisation of a model elliptic problem. In addition, we study how well the finite element scheme satisfies the continuous conservation laws arising from the application of Noether’s first theorem (1918). We summarise extensive numerical tests, illustrating the conservation of the discrete Noether law using the p-Laplacian as an example and derive a geometric-based adaptive algorithm where an appropriate Noether quantity is the goal functional.