Time patterns in UK demand for alcohol and tobacco: an application of the EM algorithm

Capturing the pattern of structural change is a relevant task in applied demand analysis, as consumer preferences may vary significantly over time. Filtering and smoothing techniques have recently played an increasingly relevant role. A dynamic Almost Ideal Demand System with random walk parameters is estimated in order to detect modifications in consumer habits and preferences, as well as changes in the behavioural response to prices and income. Systemwise estimation, consistent with the underlying constraints from economic theory, is achieved through the EM algorithm. The proposed model is applied to UK aggregate consumption of alcohol and tobacco, using quarterly data from 1963 to 2003. Increased alcohol consumption is explained by a preference shift, addictive behaviour and a lower price elasticity. The dynamic and time-varying specification is consistent with the theoretical requirements imposed at each sample point. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The relationship between diffuse spectral reflectance of the soil and its cation exchange capacity is scale-dependent

Diffuse reflectance spectroscopy (DRS) is increasingly being used to predict numerous soil physical, chemical and biochemical properties. However, soil properties and processes vary at different scales and, as a result, relationships between soil properties often depend on scale. In this paper we report on how the relationship between one such property, cation exchange capacity (CEC), and the DRS of the soil depends on spatial scale. We show this by means of a nested analysis of covariance of soils sampled on a balanced nested design in a 16 km × 16 km area in eastern England. We used principal components analysis on the DRS to obtain a reduced number of variables while retaining key variation. The first principal component accounted for 99.8% of the total variance, the second for 0.14%. Nested analysis of the variation in the CEC and the two principal components showed that the substantial variance components are at the > 2000-m scale. This is probably the result of differences in soil composition due to parent material. We then developed a model to predict CEC from the DRS and used partial least squares (PLS) regression do to so. Leave-one-out cross-validation results suggested a reasonable predictive capability (R2 = 0.71 and RMSE = 0.048 molc kg− 1). However, the results from the independent validation were not as good, with R2 = 0.27, RMSE = 0.056 molc kg− 1 and an overall correlation of 0.52. This would indicate that DRS may not be useful for predictions of CEC. When we applied the analysis of covariance between predicted and observed we found significant scale-dependent correlations at scales of 50 and 500 m (0.82 and 0.73 respectively). DRS measurements can therefore be useful to predict CEC if predictions are required, for example, at the field scale (50 m). This study illustrates that the relationship between DRS and soil properties is scale-dependent and that this scale dependency has important consequences for prediction of soil properties from DRS data

The co-occurrence of autism and Williams syndrome: a case study report

This paper describes a longitudinal case study detailing the communication profile of one child with both Williams syndrome (WS) and autism. The participant was administered two standardized assessments of language and general cognitive abilities. His parents completed the Pre-Verbal Communication Schedule; and a sample of the child's spontaneous interaction was analyzed. The results show that this child presents with markedly delayed language and communication skills and that his communication profile is the opposite of the assumed 'typical' WS profile. The conclusion is that clinicians need to be aware of the co-occurrence of genetic disorders, such as WS and autism in order to facilitate accurate diagnosis and effective treatment.

PETS 2014: dataset and challenge

This paper describes the dataset and vision challenges that form part of the PETS 2014 workshop. The datasets are multisensor sequences containing different activities around a parked vehicle in a parking lot. The dataset scenarios were filmed from multiple cameras mounted on the vehicle itself and involve multiple actors. In PETS2014 workshop, 22 acted scenarios are provided of abnormal behaviour around the parked vehicle. The aim in PETS 2014 is to provide a standard benchmark that indicates how detection, tracking, abnormality and behaviour analysis systems perform against a common database. The dataset specifically addresses several vision challenges corresponding to different steps in a video understanding system: Low-Level Video Analysis (object detection and tracking), Mid-Level Video Analysis (‘simple’ event detection: the behaviour recognition of a single actor) and High-Level Video Analysis (‘complex’ event detection: the behaviour and interaction recognition of several actors).

Effective elements of cognitive behaviour therapy for psychosis: results of a novel type of subgroup analysis based on principal stratification

Background. Meta-analyses show that cognitive behaviour therapy for psychosis (CBT-P) improves distressing positive symptoms. However, it is a complex intervention involving a range of techniques. No previous study has assessed the delivery of the different elements of treatment and their effect on outcome. Our aim was to assess the differential effect of type of treatment delivered on the effectiveness of CBT-P, using novel statistical methodology. Method. The Psychological Prevention of Relapse in Psychosis (PRP) trial was a multi-centre randomized controlled trial (RCT) that compared CBT-P with treatment as usual (TAU). Therapy was manualized, and detailed evaluations of therapy delivery and client engagement were made. Follow-up assessments were made at 12 and 24 months. In a planned analysis, we applied principal stratification (involving structural equation modelling with finite mixtures) to estimate intention-to-treat (ITT) effects for subgroups of participants, defined by qualitative and quantitative differences in receipt of therapy, while maintaining the constraints of randomization. Results. Consistent delivery of full therapy, including specific cognitive and behavioural techniques, was associated with clinically and statistically significant increases in months in remission, and decreases in psychotic and affective symptoms. Delivery of partial therapy involving engagement and assessment was not effective. Conclusions. Our analyses suggest that CBT-P is of significant benefit on multiple outcomes to patients able to engage in the full range of therapy procedures. The novel statistical methods illustrated in this report have general application to the evaluation of heterogeneity in the effects of treatment.

Determinants of biosecurity behaviour of British cattle and sheep farmers: a behavioural economics analysis

The paper analyses the impact of a priori determinants of biosecurity behaviour of farmers in Great Britain. We use a dataset collected through a stratified telephone survey of 900 cattle and sheep farmers in Great Britain (400 in England and a further 250 in Wales and Scotland respectively) which took place between 25 March 2010 and 18 June 2010. The survey was stratified by farm type, farm size and region. To test the influence of a priori determinants on biosecurity behaviour we used a behavioural economics method, structural equation modelling (SEM) with observed and latent variables. SEM is a statistical technique for testing and estimating causal relationships amongst variables, some of which may be latent using a combination of statistical data and qualitative causal assumptions. Thirteen latent variables were identified and extracted, expressing the behaviour and the underlying determining factors. The variables were: experience, economic factors, organic certification of farm, membership in a cattle/sheep health scheme, perceived usefulness of biosecurity information sources, knowledge about biosecurity measures, perceived importance of specific biosecurity strategies, perceived effect (on farm business in the past five years) of welfare/health regulation, perceived effect of severe outbreaks of animal diseases, attitudes towards livestock biosecurity, attitudes towards animal welfare, influence on decision to apply biosecurity measures and biosecurity behaviour. The SEM model applied on the Great Britain sample has an adequate fit according to the measures of absolute, incremental and parsimonious fit. The results suggest that farmers’ perceived importance of specific biosecurity strategies, organic certification of farm, knowledge about biosecurity measures, attitudes towards animal welfare, perceived usefulness of biosecurity information sources, perceived effect on business during the past five years of severe outbreaks of animal diseases, membership in a cattle/sheep health scheme, attitudes towards livestock biosecurity, influence on decision to apply biosecurity measures, experience and economic factors are significantly influencing behaviour (overall explaining 64% of the variance in behaviour).

Identifying the critical parameters of a cyanobacterial growth and movement model by using generalised sensitivity analysis

Bloom-forming and toxin-producing cyanobacteria remain a persistent nuisance across the world. Modelling of cyanobacteria in freshwaters is an important tool for understanding their population dynamics and predicting the location and timing of the bloom events in lakes and rivers. A new deterministic-mathematical model was developed, which simulates the growth and movement of cyanobacterial blooms in river systems. The model focuses on the mathematical description of the bloom formation, vertical migration and lateral transport of colonies within river environments by taking into account the major factors that affect the cyanobacterial bloom formation in rivers including, light, nutrients and temperature. A technique called generalised sensitivity analysis was applied to the model to identify the critical parameter uncertainties in the model and investigates the interaction between the chosen parameters of the model. The result of the analysis suggested that 8 out of 12 parameters were significant in obtaining the observed cyanobacterial behaviour in a simulation. It was found that there was a high degree of correlation between the half-saturation rate constants used in the model.

Simulating current global river runoff with a global hydrological model: model revisions, validation, and sensitivity analysis

Global hydrological models (GHMs) model the land surface hydrologic dynamics of continental-scale river basins. Here we describe one such GHM, the Macro-scale - Probability-Distributed Moisture model.09 (Mac-PDM.09). The model has undergone a number of revisions since it was last applied in the hydrological literature. This paper serves to provide a detailed description of the latest version of the model. The main revisions include the following: (1) the ability for the model to be run for n repetitions, which provides more robust estimates of extreme hydrological behaviour, (2) the ability of the model to use a gridded field of coefficient of variation (CV) of daily rainfall for the stochastic disaggregation of monthly precipitation to daily precipitation, and (3) the model can now be forced with daily input climate data as well as monthly input climate data. We demonstrate the effects that each of these three revisions has on simulated runoff relative to before the revisions were applied. Importantly, we show that when Mac-PDM.09 is forced with monthly input data, it results in a negative runoff bias relative to when daily forcings are applied, for regions of the globe where the day-to-day variability in relative humidity is high. The runoff bias can be up to - 80% for a small selection of catchments but the absolute magnitude of the bias may be small. As such, we recommend future applications of Mac-PDM.09 that use monthly climate forcings acknowledge the bias as a limitation of the model. The performance of Mac-PDM.09 is evaluated by validating simulated runoff against observed runoff for 50 catchments. We also present a sensitivity analysis that demonstrates that simulated runoff is considerably more sensitive to method of PE calculation than to perturbations in soil moisture and field capacity parameters.

Comparative analysis by protocol and key of seed storage behaviour of sixty Vietnamese tree species

Seed storage behaviour of 5 1 native and 9 introduced tree species in Vietnam was investigated using a brief protocol developed to aid biodiversity conservation in circumstances where little is known about the seeds. Of the 60 species, 34 appeared to show orthodox (Acacia auriculaeformis, Adenanthera pavonina, Afzelia xylocarpa, Bauhinia purpurea, Callistemon lanceolatus, Cananga odorata, Canarium nigrum, Cassia fistula, Cassia javanica, Cassia splendida, Chukrasia tabularis, Dalbergia bariaensis, Dialium cochinchinensis, Diospyros mollis, Diospyros mun, Dracuntomelon duperreanum, Erythrophleum fordii, Khaya senegalensis, Lagerstroemia speciosa, Leucaena leucocephala, Livistona cochinchinensis, Markhamia stipulata, Melaleuca cajuputi, Millettia ichthyotona, Peltophorum pterocarpum, Peltophorum tonkinensis, Pinus khasya, Pinus massoniana, Pinus merkusii, Pterocarpus macrocarpus, Sindora siamensis, Sophora tonkinense, Sterculia foetida, Swietenia macrophylla), 13 recalcitrant (Avicennia alba, Beilschmiedia roxburghiana, Caryota mitis, Dimocarpus sp., Diospyros malabarica, Dipterocarpus chartaceus, Dypsis pinnatifrons, Hopea odorata, Lithocarpus gigantophylla, Machilus odoratissimus, Melanorrhoea laccifera, Melanorrhea usitata, Syzygium cinereum) and 13 intermediate (Anisoptera cochinchinensis, Aphanamixis polystachya, Averrhoa carambola, Carissa carandas, Chrysopylum cainito, Cinnamomum camphora, Citrofortunella microcarpa, Citrus grandis var. grandis, Elaeis guineensis, Hydnocarpus anthelmintica, Madhuca floribunda, Manilkara achras, Mimusops elengi) seed storage behaviour. A double-criteria key to estimate likely seed storage behaviour showed good agreement with the above: the key can reduce the workload of seed storage behaviour identification considerably.

Ranking efficiency units in DEA using bootstrapping an applied analysis for Slovenian farm data

This article explores how data envelopment analysis (DEA), along with a smoothed bootstrap method, can be used in applied analysis to obtain more reliable efficiency rankings for farms. The main focus is the smoothed homogeneous bootstrap procedure introduced by Simar and Wilson (1998) to implement statistical inference for the original efficiency point estimates. Two main model specifications, constant and variable returns to scale, are investigated along with various choices regarding data aggregation. The coefficient of separation (CoS), a statistic that indicates the degree of statistical differentiation within the sample, is used to demonstrate the findings. The CoS suggests a substantive dependency of the results on the methodology and assumptions employed. Accordingly, some observations are made on how to conduct DEA in order to get more reliable efficiency rankings, depending on the purpose for which they are to be used. In addition, attention is drawn to the ability of the SLICE MODEL, implemented in GAMS, to enable researchers to overcome the computational burdens of conducting DEA (with bootstrapping).

Synthesis, structural analysis, and magnetic behaviour of three fumarate bridged coordination polymers: five-fold interpenetrated diamond-like net of Ni-II, sheets of Ni-II and Co-II

The hydrothermal reactions of Ni(NO3)(2).6H(2)O, disodium fumarate (fum) and 1,2-bis(4-pyridyl)ethane (bpe)/1,3-bis(4-pyridyl) propane (bpp) in aqueous-methanol medium yield one 3-D and one 2-D metal-organic hybrid material, [Ni(fum)(bpe)] (1) and [Ni(fum)(bpp)(H2O)] (2), respectively. Complex 1 possesses a novel unprecedented structure, the first example of an "unusual mode" of a five-fold distorted interpenetrated network with metal-ligand linkages where the four six-membered windows in each adamantane-type cage are different. The structural characterization of complex 2 evidences a buckled sheet where nickel ions are in a distorted octahedral geometry, with two carboxylic groups, one acting as a bis-chelate, the other as a bis-monodentate ligand. The metal ion completes the coordination sphere through one water molecule and two bpp nitrogens in cis position. Variable-temperature magnetic measurements of complexes 1 and 2 reveal the existence of very weak antiferromagnetic intramolecular interactions and/or the presence of single-ion zero field splitting (D) of isolated Ni-II ions in both the compounds. Experimentally, both the J parameters are close, comparable and very small. Considering zero-field splitting of Ni-II, the calculated D values are in agreement with values reported in the literature for Ni-II ions. Complex 3, [{Co(phen)}(2)(fum)(2)] (phen=1,10-phenanthroline) is obtained by diffusing methanolic solution of 1,10-phenanthroline on an aqueous layer of disodium fumarate and Co(NO3)(2).6H(2)O. It consists of dimeric Co-II(phen) units, doubly bridged by carboxylate groups in a distorted syn-syn fashion. These fumarate anions act as bis-chelates to form corrugated sheets. The 2D layer has a (4,4) topology, with the nodes represented by the centres of the dimers. The magnetic data were fitted ignoring the very weak coupling through the fumarate pathway and using a dimer model.

Appraiser behaviour and appraisal smoothing: some qualitative and quantitative evidence

There is a substantial literature which suggests that appraisals are smoothed and lag the true level of prices. This study combines a qualitative interview survey of the leading fund manager/owners in the UK and their appraisers with a empirical study of the number of appraisals which change each month within the IPD Monthly Index. The paper concentrates on how the appraisal process operates for commercial property performance measurement purposes. The survey interviews suggest that periodic appraisal services are consolidating in fewer firms and, within these major firms, appraisers adopt different approaches to changing appraisals on a period by period basis, with some wanting hard transaction evidence while others act on "softer' signals. The survey also indicates a seasonal effect with greater effort and information being applied to annual and quarterly appraisals than monthly. The analysis of the appraisals within the Investment Property Databank Monthly Index confirms this effect with around 5% more appraisals being moved at each quarter day than the other months. January and August have significantly less appraisal changes than other months.