A simple column model to explore anticipated problems in variational assimilation of satellite observations

We investigate a simplified form of variational data assimilation in a fully nonlinear framework with the aim of extracting dynamical development information from a sequence of observations over time. Information on the vertical wind profile, w(z ), and profiles of temperature, T (z , t), and total water content, qt (z , t), as functions of height, z , and time, t, are converted to brightness temperatures at a single horizontal location by defining a two-dimensional (vertical and time) variational assimilation testbed. The profiles of T and qt are updated using a vertical advection scheme. A basic cloud scheme is used to obtain the fractional cloud amount and, when combined with the temperature field, this information is converted into a brightness temperature, using a simple radiative transfer scheme. It is shown that our model exhibits realistic behaviour with regard to the prediction of cloud, but the effects of nonlinearity become non-negligible in the variational data assimilation algorithm. A careful analysis of the application of the data assimilation scheme to this nonlinear problem is presented, the salient difficulties are highlighted, and suggestions for further developments are discussed.

The power of anticipated feedback: Effects on students' achievement goals and achievement emotions.

In an experimental study (N = 153 high school students), we tested a theoretical model positing that anticipated achievement feedback influences achievement goals and achievement emotions, and that achievement goals mediate the link between anticipated feedback and emotions. Participants were informed that they would receive self-referential feedback, normative feedback, or no feedback for their performance on a test. Subsequently, achievement goals and discrete achievement emotions regarding the test were assessed. Self-referential feedback had a positive influence on mastery goal adoption, whereas normative feedback had a positive influence on performance-approach and performance-avoidance goal adoption. Furthermore, feedback condition and achievement goals predicted test-related emotions (i.e., enjoyment, hope, pride, relief, anger, anxiety, hopelessness, and shame). Achievement goals were documented as significant mediators of the influence of feedback instruction on emotions, and mediation was observed for seven of the eight focal emotions. Implications for educational research and practice are discussed.

The counter-propagating Rossby-wave perspective on baroclinic instability. Part III: Primitive-equation disturbances on the sphere

Baroclinic instability of perturbations described by the linearized primitive quations, growing on steady zonal jets on the sphere, can be understood in terms of the interaction of pairs of counter-propagating Rossby waves (CRWs). The CRWs can be viewed as the basic components of the dynamical system where the Hamiltonian is the pseudoenergy and each CRW has a zonal coordinate and pseudomomentum. The theory holds for adiabatic frictionless flow to the extent that truncated forms of pseudomomentum and pseudoenergy are globally conserved. These forms focus attention on Rossby wave activity. Normal mode (NM) dispersion relations for realistic jets are explained in terms of the two CRWs associated with each unstable NM pair. Although derived from the NMs, CRWs have the conceptual advantage that their structure is zonally untilted, and can be anticipated given only the basic state. Moreover, their zonal propagation, phase-locking and mutual interaction can all be understood by ‘PV-thinking’ applied at only two ‘home-bases’—potential vorticity (PV) anomalies at one home-base induce circulation anomalies, both locally and at the other home-base, which in turn can advect the PV gradient and modify PV anomalies there. At short wavelengths the upper CRW is focused in the mid-troposphere just above the steering level of the NM, but at longer wavelengths the upper CRW has a second wave-activity maximum at the tropopause. In the absence of meridional shear, CRW behaviour is very similar to that of Charney modes, while shear results in a meridional slant with height of the air-parcel displacement-structures of CRWs in sympathy with basic-state zonal angular-velocity surfaces. A consequence of this slant is that baroclinically growing eddies (on jets broader than the Rossby radius) must tilt downshear in the horizontal, giving rise to up-gradient momentum fluxes that tend to accelerate the barotropic component of the jet.

The counter-propagating Rossby-wave perspective on baroclinic instability. Part IV: Nonlinear life cycles

Pairs of counter-propagating Rossby waves (CRWs) can be used to describe baroclinic instability in linearized primitive-equation dynamics, employing simple propagation and interaction mechanisms at only two locations in the meridional plane—the CRW ‘home-bases’. Here, it is shown how some CRW properties are remarkably robust as a growing baroclinic wave develops nonlinearly. For example, the phase difference between upper-level and lower-level waves in potential-vorticity contours, defined initially at the home-bases of the CRWs, remains almost constant throughout baroclinic wave life cycles, despite the occurrence of frontogenesis and Rossby-wave breaking. As the lower wave saturates nonlinearly the whole baroclinic wave changes phase speed from that of the normal mode to that of the self-induced phase speed of the upper CRW. On zonal jets without surface meridional shear, this must always act to slow the baroclinic wave. The direction of wave breaking when a basic state has surface meridional shear can be anticipated because the displacement structures of CRWs tend to be coherent along surfaces of constant basic-state angular velocity, U. This results in up-gradient horizontal momentum fluxes for baroclinically growing disturbances. The momentum flux acts to shift the jet meridionally in the direction of the increasing surface U, so that the upper CRW breaks in the same direction as occurred at low levels

Memory-based Embodied Cognition: a computational architecture

At its most fundamental, cognition as displayed by biological agents (such as humans) may be said to consist of the manipulation and utilisation of memory. Recent discussions in the field of cognitive robotics have emphasised the role of embodiment and the necessity of a value or motivation for autonomous behaviour. This work proposes a computational architecture – the Memory-Based Cognitive (MBC) architecture – based upon these considerations for the autonomous development of control of a simple mobile robot. This novel architecture will permit the exploration of theoretical issues in cognitive robotics and animal cognition. Furthermore, the biological inspiration of the architecture is anticipated to result in a mobile robot controller which displays adaptive behaviour in unknown environments.

Development of a methodology to investigate the importance of chemical speciation on the bioavailability of contaminants to Eisenia andrei

The uptake of metals by earthworms occurs predominantly via the soil pore water, or via an uptake route which is related to the soil pore water metal concentration. However, it has been suggested that the speciation of the metal is also important. A novel technique is described which exposes Eisenia andrei Bouche to contaminant bearing solutions in which the chemical factors affecting its speciation may be individually and systematically manipulated. In a preliminary experiment, the LC50 for copper nitrate was 0.046 mg l(-1) (95 % confidence intervals: 0.03 and 0.07 mg l(-1)). There was a significant positive correlation between earthworm mortality and bulk copper concentration in solution (R-2 = 0.88, P less than or equal to 0.001), and a significant positive increase in earthworm tissue copper concentration with increasing copper concentration in solution (R-2 = 0.97, P less than or equal to 0.001). It is anticipated that quantifying the effect of soil solution chemical speciation on copper bioavailability will provide an excellent aid to understanding the importance of chemical composition and the speciation of metals, in the calculation of toxicological parameters.

Enhancement of the aerosol direct radiative effect by semi-volatile aerosol components: airborne measurements in North-Western Europe

A case study of atmospheric aerosol measurements exploring the impact of the vertical distribution of aerosol chemical composition upon the radiative budget in North-Western Europe is presented. Sub-micron aerosol chemical composition was measured by an Aerodyne Aerosol Mass Spectrometer (AMS) on both an airborne platform and a ground-based site at Cabauw in the Netherlands. The examined period in May 2008 was characterised by enhanced pollution loadings in North-Western Europe and was dominated by ammonium nitrate and Organic Matter (OM). Both ammonium nitrate and OM were observed to increase with altitude in the atmospheric boundary layer. This is primarily attributed to partitioning of semi-volatile gas phase species to the particle phase at reduced temperature and enhanced relative humidity. Increased ammonium nitrate concentrations in particular were found to strongly increase the ambient scattering potential of the aerosol burden, which was a consequence of the large amount of associated water as well as the enhanced mass. During particularly polluted conditions, increases in aerosol optical depth of 50–100% were estimated to occur due to the observed increase in secondary aerosol mass and associated water uptake. Furthermore, the single scattering albedo was also shown to increase with height in the boundary layer. These enhancements combined to increase the negative direct aerosol radiative forcing by close to a factor of two at the median percentile level. Such increases have major ramifications for regional climate predictions as semi-volatile components are often not included in aerosol models. The results presented here provide an ideal opportunity to test regional and global representations of both the aerosol vertical distribution and subsequent impacts in North-Western Europe. North-Western Europe can be viewed as an analogue for the possible future air quality over other polluted regions of the Northern Hemisphere, where substantial reductions in sulphur dioxide emissions have yet to occur. Anticipated reductions in sulphur dioxide in polluted regions will result in an increase in the availability of ammonia to form ammonium nitrate as opposed to ammonium sulphate. This will be most important where intensive agricultural practises occur. Our observations over North-Western Europe, a region where sulphur dioxide emissions have already been reduced, indicate that failure to include the semi-volatile behaviour of ammonium nitrate will result in significant errors in predicted aerosol direct radiative forcing. Such errors will be particularly significant on regional scales.

First lactation ovarian function in dairy heifers in relation to prepubertal metabolic profiles

The aim of this study was to determine whether any differences in the GH-IGF-I axis in juvenile calves were predictive of fertility problems as adult cows. Endogenous metabolic hormone profiles before and after feeding and the response to a GH-releasing factor (GRF) challenge were measured in prepubertal (6 month) dairy calves. These metabolic parameters were subsequently related to physical characteristics at puberty and to ovarian function during the first lactation. Milk progesterone analysis was used to categorize the animals into those with normal progesterone profiles following calving (n = 17) and those that developed delayed ovulation (DOV1, n = 9) or persistent corpus luteum (PCL1, n = 6) profiles. There were associations between prepubertal GH parameters, glucose and non-esterified fatty acid (NEFA) concentrations and the body condition score at which the animals attained puberty. The calves which subsequently developed DOV1 profiles as cows tended to have a higher GH pulse amplitude during fasting than normal profile animals, they did not show the anticipated decrease in circulating glucose concentrations following a post-prandial rise in insulin and they also had the lowest IGF-I concentrations. The calves that later developed PCL1 had a significantly larger GH pulse amplitude and pulse area than normal profile animals in the fed period and had the highest IGF-I concentrations. There were no differences in prepubertal insulin or NEFA concentrations or in the GH response to a GRF challenge between the different progesterone profile categories. Plasma IGF-I concentrations in prepubertal animals were positively correlated with their post-calving concentrations, whereas glucose concentrations had a negative correlation between these time-periods. These results suggested that the different juvenile endocrine profiles of the DOV1 cows may predispose them to a higher rate of tissue mobilization during lactation and a consequent reduction in fertility, while altered GH and IGF-I levels in PCL1 cows may later contribute to the maintenance of the persistent corpus luteum. Therefore metabolic differences in prepubertal calves were later reflected by altered reproductive function during the first lactation.

The economic viability and potential of a novel poultry agroforestry system

Investigating agroforestry systems that incorporate poultry is warranted in Northern Europe as they may offer benefits including: improved welfare and use of range; reduced feed costs; price premia on products; reduced payback periods for forests; and, greater returns on investment. Free-range egg production accounts for 27% of the United Kingdom egg market and demand for outdoor broilers is increasing. No research has been conducted recently on the economic viability of agroforestry systems with poultry. An economic model was constructed to: assess economic viability of a broiler agroforestry system; and, investigate the sensitivity of economic performance to key factors and interactions, and identify those which warrant attention in research and management. The system modelled is a commercial trial established in Southern England in 2002 where deciduous trees were planted and broilers reared in six- or nine-week periods. The model uses Monte Carlo simulation and financial performance analyses run for a 120-year period. An Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of 15.5% is predicted for the six-week system which remains viable under a 'worst case' scenario (IRR of 12.6%). Factors which affect financial performance most (decreasing in magnitude) are prices achieved for broilers, costs of brooding houses, chicks, arks, feed and timber prices. The main anticipated effects of biological interactions on financial performance (increased ranging on feed conversion and excess nutrient supply on tree health) were not supported by analysis. Further research is particularly warranted on the welfare benefits offered by the tree component and its relation to price premia.

Future innovations in anti-platelet therapies

Platelets have long been recognized to be of central importance in haemostasis, but their participation in pathological conditions such as thrombosis, atherosclerosis and inflammation is now also well established. The platelet has therefore become a key target in therapies to combat cardiovascular disease. Anti-platelet therapies are used widely, but current approaches lack efficacy in a proportion of patients, and are associated with side effects including problem bleeding. In the last decade, substantial progress has been made in understanding the regulation of platelet function, including the characterization of new ligands, platelet-specific receptors and cell signalling pathways. It is anticipated this progress will impact positively on the future innovations towards more effective and safer anti-platelet agents. In this review, the mechanisms of platelet regulation and current anti-platelet therapies are introduced, and strong, and some more speculative, potential candidate target molecules for future anti-platelet drug development are discussed.

Expression of target and reference genes in Daphnia magna exposed to ibuprofen

Background: Transcriptomic techniques are now being applied in ecotoxicology and toxicology to measure the impact of stressors and develop understanding of mechanisms of toxicity. Microarray technology in particular offers the potential to measure thousands of gene responses simultaneously. However, it is important that microarrays responses should be validated, at least initially, using real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction (QPCR). The accurate measurement of target gene expression requires normalisation to an invariant internal control e. g., total RNA or reference genes. Reference genes are preferable, as they control for variation inherent in the cDNA synthesis and PCR. However, reference gene expression can vary between tissues and experimental conditions, which makes it crucial to validate them prior to application. Results: We evaluated 10 candidate reference genes for QPCR in Daphnia magna following a 24 h exposure to the non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID) ibuprofen (IB) at 0, 20, 40 and 80 mg IB l(-1). Six of the 10 candidates appeared suitable for use as reference genes. As a robust approach, we used a combination normalisation factor (NF), calculated using the geNorm application, based on the geometric mean of three selected reference genes: glyceraldehyde-3-phosphate dehydrogenase, ubiquitin conjugating enzyme and actin. The effects of normalisation are illustrated using as target gene leukotriene B4 12-hydroxydehydrogenase (Ltb4dh), which was upregulated following 24 h exposure to 63-81 mg IB l(-1). Conclusions: As anticipated, use of the NF clarified the response of Ltb4dh in daphnids exposed to sublethal levels of ibuprofen. Our findings emphasise the importance in toxicogenomics of finding and applying invariant internal QPCR control(s) relevant to the study conditions.

Effects of dredging in Goteborg Harbor, Sweden, assessed by biomarkers in eelpout (Zoarces viviparus)

We used a battery of biomarkers in fish to study the effects of the extensive dredging in Goteborg harbor situated at the river Gota alv estuary, Sweden. Eelpout (Zoarces viviparus) were sampled along a gradient into Goteborg harbor, both before and during the dredging. Biomarker responses in the eelpout before the dredging already indicated that fish in Goteborg harbor are chronically affected by pollutants under normal conditions compared to those in a reference area. However, the results during the dredging activities clearly show that fish were even more affected by remobilized pollutants. Elevated ethoxyresorufin-O-deethylase activities and cytochrome P4501A levels indicated exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. Elevated metallothionein gene expression indicated an increase in metal exposure. An increase in general cell toxicity, measured as a decrease in lysosomal membrane stability, as well as effects on the immune system also could be observed in eelpout sampled during the dredging. The results also suggest that dredging activities in the Gota alv estuary can affect larger parts of the Swedish western coast than originally anticipated. The present study demonstrates that the application of a set of biomarkers is a useful approach in monitoring the impact of anthropogenic activities on aquatic environments.