Intercomparison of aircraft instruments on board the C-130 and Falcon-20 over southern Germany during EXPORT2000

In the summer 2000 EXPORT aircraft campaign (European eXport of Precursors and Ozone by long-Range Transport), two comprehensively instrumented research aircraft measuring a variety of chemical species flew wing tip to wing tip for a period of one and a quarter hours. During this interval a comparison was undertaken of the measurements of nitrogen oxide (NO), odd nitrogen species (NOy), carbon monoxide (CO) and ozone (O3). The comparison was performed at two different flight levels, which provided a 10-fold variation in the concentrations of both NO (10 to 1000 parts per trillion by volume (pptv)) and NOy (200 to over 2500 pptv). Large peaks of NO and NOy observed from the Falcon 20, which were at first thought to be from the exhaust of the C-130, were also detected on the 4 channel NOxy instrument aboard the C-130. These peaks were a good indication that both aircraft were in the same air mass and that the Falcon 20 was not in the exhaust plume of the C-130. Correlations and statistical analysis are presented between the instruments used on the two separate aircraft platforms. These were found to be in good agreement giving a high degree of correlation for the ambient air studied. Any deviations from the correlations are accounted for in the estimated inaccuracies of the instruments. These results help to establish that the instruments aboard the separate aircraft are reliably able to measure the corresponding chemical species in the range of conditions sampled and that data collected by both aircraft can be co-ordinated for purposes of interpretation.

Representativity of in situ precipitation measurements - a case study for the LITFASS area in North-Eastern Germany

In situ precipitation measurements can extremely differ in space and time. Taking into account the limited spatial–temporal representativity and the uncertainty of a single station is important for validating mesoscale numerical model results as well as for interpreting remote sensing data. In situ precipitation data from a high resolution network in North-Eastern Germany are analysed to determine their temporal and spatial representativity. For the dry year 2003 precipitation amounts were available with 10 min resolution from 14 rain gauges distributed in an area of 25 km 25 km around the Meteorological Observatory Lindenberg (Richard-Aßmann Observatory). Our analysis reveals that short-term (up to 6 h) precipitation events dominate (94% of all events) and that the distribution is skewed with a high frequency of very low precipitation amounts. Long-lasting precipitation events are rare (6% of all precipitation events), but account for nearly 50% of the annual precipitation. The spatial representativity of a single-site measurement increases slightly for longer measurement intervals and the variability decreases. Hourly precipitation amounts are representative for an area of 11 km 11 km. Daily precipitation amounts appear to be reliable with an uncertainty factor of 3.3 for an area of 25 km 25 km, and weekly and monthly precipitation amounts have uncertainties of a factor of 2 and 1.4 when compared to 25 km 25 km mean values.

Ground-based aerosol optical depth trends at three high-altitude sites in Switzerland and Southern Germany from 1995–2010

Ground-based aerosol optical depth (AOD) climatologies at three high-altitude sites in Switzerland (Jungfraujoch and Davos) and Southern Germany (Hohenpeissenberg) are updated and re-calibrated for the period 1995 – 2010. In addition, AOD time-series are augmented with previously unreported data, and are homogenized for the first time. Trend analysis revealed weak AOD trends (λ = 500 nm) at Jungfraujoch (JFJ; +0.007 decade-1), Davos (DAV; +0.002 decade-1) and Hohenpeissenberg (HPB; -0.011 decade-1) where the JFJ and HPB trends were statistically significant at the 95% and 90% confidence levels. However, a linear trend for the JFJ 1995 – 2005 period was found to be more appropriate than for 1995 – 2010 due to the influence of stratospheric AOD which gave a trend -0.003 decade-1 (significant at 95% level). When correcting for a recently available stratospheric AOD time-series, accounting for Pinatubo (1991) and more recent volcanic eruptions, the 1995 – 2010 AOD trends decreased slightly at DAV and HPB but remained weak at +0.000 decade-1 and -0.013 decade-1 (significant at 95% level). The JFJ 1995 – 2005 AOD time-series similarly decreased to -0.003 decade-1 (significant at 95% level). We conclude that despite a more detailed re40 analysis of these three time-series, which have been extended by five years to the end of 2010, a significant decrease in AOD at these three high-altitude sites has still not been observed.

Estimation of wind storm impacts over Western Germany under future climate conditions using a statistical-dynamical downscaling approach

A statistical–dynamical regionalization approach is developed to assess possible changes in wind storm impacts. The method is applied to North Rhine-Westphalia (Western Germany) using the FOOT3DK mesoscale model for dynamical downscaling and ECHAM5/OM1 global circulation model climate projections. The method first classifies typical weather developments within the reanalysis period using K-means cluster algorithm. Most historical wind storms are associated with four weather developments (primary storm-clusters). Mesoscale simulations are performed for representative elements for all clusters to derive regional wind climatology. Additionally, 28 historical storms affecting Western Germany are simulated. Empirical functions are estimated to relate wind gust fields and insured losses. Transient ECHAM5/OM1 simulations show an enhanced frequency of primary storm-clusters and storms for 2060–2100 compared to 1960–2000. Accordingly, wind gusts increase over Western Germany, reaching locally +5% for 98th wind gust percentiles (A2-scenario). Consequently, storm losses are expected to increase substantially (+8% for A1B-scenario, +19% for A2-scenario). Regional patterns show larger changes over north-eastern parts of North Rhine-Westphalia than for western parts. For storms with return periods above 20 yr, loss expectations for Germany may increase by a factor of 2. These results document the method's functionality to assess future changes in loss potentials in regional terms.

Comparative Analysis of ESBL-Positive Escherichia coli isolates from Animals and Humans from the UK, the Netherlands and Germany

The putative virulence and antimicrobial resistance gene contents of extended spectrum β-lactamase (ESBL)-positive E. coli (n=629) isolated between 2005 and 2009 from humans, animals and animal food products in Germany, The Netherlands and the UK were compared using a microarray approach to test the suitability of this approach with regard to determining their similarities. A selection of isolates (n=313) were also analysed by multilocus sequence typing (MLST). Isolates harbouring blaCTX-M-group-1 dominated (66%, n=418) and originated from both animals and cases of human infections in all three countries; 23% (n=144) of all isolates contained both blaCTX-M-group-1 and blaOXA-1-like genes, predominantly from humans (n=127) and UK cattle (n=15). The antimicrobial resistance and virulence gene profiles of this collection of isolates were highly diverse. A substantial number of human isolates (32%, n=87) did not share more than 40% similarity (based on the Jaccard coefficient) with animal isolates. A further 43% of human isolates from the three countries (n=117) were at least 40% similar to each other and to five isolates from UK cattle and one each from Dutch chicken meat and a German dog; the members of this group usually harboured genes such as mph(A), mrx, aac(6’)-Ib, catB3, blaOXA-1-like and blaCTX-M-group-1. forty-four per cent of the MLST-typed isolates in this group belonged to ST131 (n=18) and 22% to ST405 (n=9), all from humans. Among animal isolates subjected to MLST (n=258), only 1.2% (n=3) were more than 70% similar to human isolates in gene profiles and shared the same MLST clonal complex with the corresponding human isolates. The results suggest that minimising human-to-human transmission is essential to control the spread of ESBL-positive E. coli in humans.

On the clustering of winter storm loss events over Germany

During the last decades, several windstorm series hit Europe leading to large aggregated losses. Such storm series are examples of serial clustering of extreme cyclones, presenting a considerable risk for the insurance industry. Clustering of events and return periods of storm series for Germany are quantified based on potential losses using empirical models. Two reanalysis data sets and observations from German weather stations are considered for 30 winters. Histograms of events exceeding selected return levels (1-, 2- and 5-year) are derived. Return periods of historical storm series are estimated based on the Poisson and the negative binomial distributions. Over 4000 years of general circulation model (GCM) simulations forced with current climate conditions are analysed to provide a better assessment of historical return periods. Estimations differ between distributions, for example 40 to 65 years for the 1990 series. For such less frequent series, estimates obtained with the Poisson distribution clearly deviate from empirical data. The negative binomial distribution provides better estimates, even though a sensitivity to return level and data set is identified. The consideration of GCM data permits a strong reduction of uncertainties. The present results support the importance of considering explicitly clustering of losses for an adequate risk assessment for economical applications.

Eastern partnership migrants in Germany: outcomes, potentials and challenges

Despite the ongoing dialogue on facilitating mobility between the European Union and the Eastern Partnership (EaP) countries, very little is known about the magnitude and characteristics of migration from these countries. We find that EaP migrants experience worse labor market outcomes than other migrant groups, but current and potential migrants hold qualifications in those areas were skill shortages are expected. Therefore, the monitoring and supervision of EaP integration will be consequential in order to understand how much of the current brain waste is driven by poor assessment of foreign qualifications, and to unleash the potential of migration for the German economy.

Diversity of STs, plasmids and ESBL genes among Escherichia coli from humans, animals and food in Germany, the Netherlands and the UK

This study aimed to compare ESBL-producing Escherichia coli causing infections in humans with infecting or commensal isolates from animals and isolates from food of animal origin in terms of the strain types, the ESBL gene present and the plasmids that carry the respective ESBL genes. A collection of 353 ESBL-positive E. coli isolates from the UK, the Netherlands and Germany were studied by MLST and ESBL genes were identified. Characterization of ESBL gene-carrying plasmids was performed using PCR-based replicon typing. Moreover, IncI1-Iγ and IncN plasmids were characterized by plasmid MLST. The ESBL-producing E. coli represented 158 different STs with ST131, ST10 and ST88 being the most common. Overall, blaCTX-M-1 was the most frequently detected ESBL gene, followed by blaCTX-M-15, which was the most common ESBL gene in the human isolates. The most common plasmid replicon type overall was IncI1-Iγ followed by multiple IncF replicons. ESBL genes were present in a wide variety of E. coli STs. IncI1-Iγ plasmids that carried the blaCTX-M-1 gene were widely disseminated amongst STs in isolates from animals and humans, whereas other plasmids and STs appeared to be more restricted to isolates from specific hosts.