Evaluation of a large-eddy model simulation of a mixed-phase altocumulus cloud using microwave radiometer, lidar and Doppler radar data

Using the Met Office large-eddy model (LEM) we simulate a mixed-phase altocumulus cloud that was observed from Chilbolton in southern England by a 94 GHz Doppler radar, a 905 nm lidar, a dual-wavelength microwave radiometer and also by four radiosondes. It is important to test and evaluate such simulations with observations, since there are significant differences between results from different cloud-resolving models for ice clouds. Simulating the Doppler radar and lidar data within the LEM allows us to compare observed and modelled quantities directly, and allows us to explore the relationships between observed and unobserved variables. For general-circulation models, which currently tend to give poor representations of mixed-phase clouds, the case shows the importance of using: (i) separate prognostic ice and liquid water, (ii) a vertical resolution that captures the thin layers of liquid water, and (iii) an accurate representation the subgrid vertical velocities that allow liquid water to form. It is shown that large-scale ascents and descents are significant for this case, and so the horizontally averaged LEM profiles are relaxed towards observed profiles to account for these. The LEM simulation then gives a reasonable. cloud, with an ice-water path approximately two thirds of that observed, with liquid water at the cloud top, as observed. However, the liquid-water cells that form in the updraughts at cloud top in the LEM have liquid-water paths (LWPs) up to half those observed, and there are too few cells, giving a mean LWP five to ten times smaller than observed. In reality, ice nucleation and fallout may deplete ice-nuclei concentrations at the cloud top, allowing more liquid water to form there, but this process is not represented in the model. Decreasing the heterogeneous nucleation rate in the LEM increased the LWP, which supports this hypothesis. The LEM captures the increase in the standard deviation in Doppler velocities (and so vertical winds) with height, but values are 1.5 to 4 times smaller than observed (although values are larger in an unforced model run, this only increases the modelled LWP by a factor of approximately two). The LEM data show that, for values larger than approximately 12 cm s(-1), the standard deviation in Doppler velocities provides an almost unbiased estimate of the standard deviation in vertical winds, but provides an overestimate for smaller values. Time-smoothing the observed Doppler velocities and modelled mass-squared-weighted fallspeeds shows that observed fallspeeds are approximately two-thirds of the modelled values. Decreasing the modelled fallspeeds to those observed increases the modelled IWC, giving an IWP 1.6 times that observed.

Time-varying coefficients in the almost ideal demand system: An empirical appraisal

This paper provides a generalisation of the structural time series version of the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) that allows for time-varying coefficients (TVC/AIDS) in the presence of cross-equation constraints. An empirical appraisal of the TVC/AIDS is made using a dynamic AIDS with trending intercept as the baseline model with a data set from the Italian Household Budget Survey (1986-2001). The assessment is based on four criteria: adherence to theoretical constraints, statistical diagnostics on residuals, forecasting performance and economic meaningfulness. No clear evidence is found for superior performance of the TVC/AIDS, apart from improved short-term forecasts.

A cross-sectional study of reproductive performance of smallholder dairy cows in coastal Tanzania

A retrospective cross-sectional study was conducted on 200 randomly selected smallholder farms from a mixed dairy farming system in Tanga, Tanzania, between January and April 1999. We estimated the frequency and determinants of long calving interval (LCI), retention of fetal membrane (RFM), dystocia, and abortion in smallholder crossbred cattle and explored birth trends. The mean calving interval was 500 days and birth rate was 65 per 100 cow-years. Dystocia was reported to affect 58% of calvings, and 17.2% of animals suffered RFM. Using mixed effect models, the variables associated with LCI, RFM and dystocia were breed, level of exotic blood and condition score. Zebu breeding was associated with LCI (odds ratio (OR) = 2.3, p = 0.041) and Friesian breeding with lower odds for RF (OR = 0.26, p = 0.020). Animals with higher levels of exotic blood had lower odds for evidence of dystocia (OR = 0.45, p = 0.021). Evidence of dystocia was significantly associated with poor condition score (beta = -1.10, p = 0.001). Our observations suggest that LCIs are common in smallholder dairy farms in this region and a likely source of economic loss. Dystocia, RFM, poor condition score and mineral deficiency were common problems and were possibly linked to LCI.

Cross-sectional estimation of Babesia bovis antibody prevalence in cattle in two contrasting dairying areas in Tanzania

The crude prevalence of antibodies to Babesia bovis infection in cattle was estimated by serology using indirect ELISA during the period January to April, 1999. Sera were obtained from 1395 dairy cattle (of all ages, sexes and breeds) on smallholder farms, the majority being kept under a zero grazing regime. The crude prevalence of antibodies to Babesia bovis was 6 % for Tanga and 12 % for Iringa. The forces of infection based on the age sero-prevalence profile, were estimated at six for Iringa and four for Tanga per 100 cattle years-risk, respectively. Using random effect logistic regression as the analytical method, the factors (variables) of age, source of animals and geographic location were hypothesised to be associated with sero-positivity of Babesia bovis in the two regions.

Testing symmetry and homogeneity in the almost ideal demand system with co-integrated data using fully modified estimation and the bootstrap

Conventional seemingly unrelated estimation of the almost ideal demand system is shown to lead to small sample bias and distortions in the size of a Wald test for symmetry and homogeneity when the data are co-integrated. A fully modified estimator is developed in an attempt to remedy these problems. It is shown that this estimator reduces the small sample bias but fails to eliminate the size distortion.. Bootstrapping is shown to be ineffective as a method of removing small sample bias in both the conventional and fully modified estimators. Bootstrapping is effective, however, as a method of removing. size distortion and performs equally well in this respect with both estimators.

Judgments of path, not heading, guide locomotion

To steer a course through the world, people are almost entirely dependent on visual information, of which a key component is optic flow. In many models of locomotion, heading is described as the fundamental control variable; however, it has also been shown that fixating points along or near one's future path could be the basis of an efficient control solution. Here, the authors aim to establish how well observers can pinpoint instantaneous heading and path, by measuring their accuracy when looking at these features while traveling along straight and curved paths. The results showed that observers could identify both heading and path accurately (similar to 3 degrees) when traveling along straight paths, but on curved paths they were more accurate at identifying a point on their future path (similar to 5 degrees) than indicating their instantaneous heading (similar to 13 degrees). Furthermore, whereas participants could track changes in the tightness of their path, they were unable to accurately track the rate of change of heading. In light of these results, the authors suggest it is unlikely that heading is primarily used by the visual system to support active steering.

The demand for a healthy diet: estimating the almost ideal demand system with infrequency of purchase

A Bayesian method of estimating multivariate sample selection models is introduced and applied to the estimation of a demand system for food in the UK to account for censoring arising from infrequency of purchase. We show how it is possible to impose identifying restrictions on the sample selection equations and that, unlike a maximum likelihood framework, the imposition of adding up at both latent and observed levels is straightforward. Our results emphasise the role played by low incomes and socio-economic circumstances in leading to poor diets and also indicate that the presence of children in a household has a negative impact on dietary quality.