Validation of a priori CME arrival predictions made using real-time heliospheric imager observations

Between December 2010 and March 2013, volunteers for the Solar Stormwatch (SSW) Citizen Science project have identified and analyzed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in the near real-time Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory Heliospheric Imager observations, in order to make “Fearless Forecasts” of CME arrival times and speeds at Earth. Of the 60 predictions of Earth-directed CMEs, 20 resulted in an identifiable Interplanetary CME (ICME) at Earth within 1.5–6 days, with an average error in predicted transit time of 22 h, and average transit time of 82.3 h. The average error in predicting arrival speed is 151 km s−1, with an average arrival speed of 425km s−1. In the same time period, there were 44 CMEs for which there are no corresponding SSW predictions, and there were 600 days on which there was neither a CME predicted nor observed. A number of metrics show that the SSW predictions do have useful forecast skill; however, there is still much room for improvement. We investigate potential improvements by using SSW inputs in three models of ICME propagation: two of constant acceleration and one of aerodynamic drag. We find that taking account of interplanetary acceleration can improve the average errors of transit time to 19 h and arrival speed to 77 km s−1.

Vertical propagation of information in a middle atmosphere data assimilation system by gravity-wave drag feedbacks

The mesospheric response to the 2002 Antarctic Stratospheric Sudden Warming (SSW) is analysed using the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model Data Assimilation System (CMAM-DAS), where it represents a vertical propagation of information from the observations into the data-free mesosphere. The CMAM-DAS simulates a cooling in the lowest part of the mesosphere which is accomplished by resolved motions, but which is extended to the mid- to upper mesosphere by the response of the model's non-orographic gravity-wave drag parameterization to the change in zonal winds. The basic mechanism is that elucidated by Holton consisting of a net eastward wave-drag anomaly in the mesosphere during the SSW, although in this case there is a net upwelling in the polar mesosphere. Since the zonal-mean mesospheric response is shown to be predictable, this demonstrates that variations in the mesospheric state can be slaved to the lower atmosphere through gravity-wave drag.

The importance of friction in mountain wave drag amplification by Scorer parameter resonance

A mechanism for amplification of mountain waves, and their associated drag, by parametric resonance is investigated using linear theory and numerical simulations. This mechanism, which is active when the Scorer parameter oscillates with height, was recently classified by previous authors as intrinsically nonlinear. Here it is shown that, if friction is included in the simplest possible form as a Rayleigh damping, and the solution to the Taylor-Goldstein equation is expanded in a power series of the amplitude of the Scorer parameter oscillation, linear theory can replicate the resonant amplification produced by numerical simulations with some accuracy. The drag is significantly altered by resonance in the vicinity of n/l_0 = 2, where l_0 is the unperturbed value of the Scorer parameter and n is the wave number of its oscillation. Depending on the phase of this oscillation, the drag may be substantially amplified or attenuated relative to its non-resonant value, displaying either single maxima or minima, or double extrema near n/l_0 = 2. Both non-hydrostatic effects and friction tend to reduce the magnitude of the drag extrema. However, in exactly inviscid conditions, the single drag maximum and minimum are suppressed. As in the atmosphere friction is often small but non-zero outside the boundary layer, modelling of the drag amplification mechanism addressed here should be quite sensitive to the type of turbulence closure employed in numerical models, or to computational dissipation in nominally inviscid simulations.

Mountain waves in two-layer sheared flows: Critical-level effects, wave reflection, and drag enhancement

Internal gravity waves generated in two-layer stratified shear flows over mountains are investigated here using linear theory and numerical simulations. The impact on the gravity wave drag of wind profiles with constant unidirectional or directional shear up to a certain height and zero shear above, with and without critical levels, is evaluated. This kind of wind profile, which is more realistic than the constant shear extending indefinitely assumed in many analytical studies, leads to important modifications in the drag behavior due to wave reflection at the shear discontinuity and wave filtering by critical levels. In inviscid, nonrotating, and hydrostatic conditions, linear theory predicts that the drag behaves asymmetrically for backward and forward shear flows. These differences primarily depend on the fraction of wavenumbers that pass through their critical level before they are reflected by the shear discontinuity. If this fraction is large, the drag variation is not too different from that predicted for an unbounded shear layer, while if it is small the differences are marked, with the drag being enhanced by a considerable factor at low Richardson numbers (Ri). The drag may be further enhanced by nonlinear processes, but its qualitative variation for relatively low Ri is essentially unchanged. However, nonlinear processes seem to interact constructively with shear, so that the drag for a noninfinite but relatively high Ri is considerably larger than the drag without any shear at all.

Asymptotic gravity wave drag expressions for non-hydrostatic rotating flow over a ridge

Asymptotic expressions are derived for the mountain wave drag in flow with constant wind and static stability over a ridge when both rotation and non-hydrostatic effects are important. These expressions, which are much more manageable than the corresponding exact drag expressions (when these do exist) are found to provide accurate approximations to the drag, even when non-hydrostatic and rotation effects are strong, despite having been developed for cases where these effects are weak. The derived expressions are compared with approximations to the drag found previously, and their asymptotic behaviour in various limits is studied.

Internal wave drag in stratified flow over mountains on a beta plane

The impact of the variation of the Coriolis parameter f on the drag exerted by internal Rossby-gravity waves on elliptical mountains is evaluated using linear theory, assuming constant wind and static stability and a beta-plane approximation. Previous calculations of inertia-gravity wave drag are thus extended in an attempt to establish a connection with existing studies on planetary wave drag, developed primarily for fluids topped by a rigid lid. It is found that the internal wave drag for zonal westerly flow strongly increases relative to that given by the calculation where f is assumed to be a constant, particularly at high latitudes and for mountains aligned meridionally. Drag increases with mountain width for sufficiently wide mountains, reaching values much larger than those valid in the non-rotating limit. This occurs because the drag receives contributions from a low wavenumber range, controlled by the beta effect, which accounts for the drag amplification found here. This drag amplification is shown to be considerable for idealized analogues of real mountain ranges, such as the Himalayas and the Rocky mountains, and comparable to the barotropic Rossby wave drag addressed in previous studies.

A linear model of gravity wave drag for hydrostatic sheared flow over elliptical mountains

An analytical model of orographic gravity wave drag due to sheared flow past elliptical mountains is developed. The model extends the domain of applicability of the well-known Phillips model to wind profiles that vary relatively slowly in the vertical, so that they may be treated using a WKB approximation. The model illustrates how linear processes associated with wind profile shear and curvature affect the drag force exerted by the airflow on mountains, and how it is crucial to extend the WKB approximation to second order in the small perturbation parameter for these effects to be taken into account. For the simplest wind profiles, the normalized drag depends only on the Richardson number, Ri, of the flow at the surface and on the aspect ratio, γ, of the mountain. For a linear wind profile, the drag decreases as Ri decreases, and this variation is faster when the wind is across the mountain than when it is along the mountain. For a wind that rotates with height maintaining its magnitude, the drag generally increases as Ri decreases, by an amount depending on γ and on the incidence angle. The results from WKB theory are compared with exact linear results and also with results from a non-hydrostatic nonlinear numerical model, showing in general encouraging agreement, down to values of Ri of order one.

Resonant gravity-wave drag enhancement in linear stratified flow over mountains

High-drag states produced in stratified flow over a 2D ridge and an axisymmetric mountain are investigated using a linear, hydrostatic, analytical model. A wind profile is assumed where the background velocity is constant up to a height z1 and then decreases linearly, and the internal gravity-wave solutions are calculated exactly. In flow over a 2D ridge, the normalized surface drag is given by a closed-form analytical expression, while in flow over an axisymmetric mountain it is given by an expression involving a simple 1D integral. The drag is found to depend on two dimensionless parameters: a dimensionless height formed with z_1, and the Richardson number, Ri, in the shear layer. The drag oscillates as z_1 increases, with a period of half the hydrostatic vertical wavelength of the gravity waves. The amplitude of this modulation increases as Ri decreases. This behaviour is due to wave reflection at z_1. Drag maxima correspond to constructive interference of the upward- and downward-propagating waves in the region z < z_1, while drag minima correspond to destructive interference. The reflection coefficient at the interface z = z_1 increases as Ri decreases. The critical level, z_c, plays no role in the drag amplification. A preliminary numerical treatment of nonlinear effects is presented, where z_c appears to become more relevant, and flow over a 2D ridge qualitatively changes its character. But these effects, and their connection with linear theory, still need to be better understood.

The effect of wind shear and curvature on the gravity wave drag produced by a ridge

The analytical model proposed by Teixeira, Miranda, and Valente is modified to calculate the gravity wave drag exerted by a stratified flow over a 2D mountain ridge. The drag is found to be more strongly affected by the vertical variation of the background velocity than for an axisymmetric mountain. In the hydrostatic approximation, the corrections to the drag due to this effect do not depend on the detailed shape of the ridge as long as this is exactly 2D. Besides the drag, all the perturbed quantities of the flow at the surface, including the pressure, may be calculated analytically.

An analytical model of mountain wave drag for wind profiles with shear and curvature

An analytical model is developed to predict the surface drag exerted by internal gravity waves on an isolated axisymmetric mountain over which there is a stratified flow with a velocity profile that varies relatively slowly with height. The model is linear with respect to the perturbations induced by the mountain, and solves the Taylor–Goldstein equation with variable coefficients using a Wentzel–Kramers–Brillouin (WKB) approximation, formally valid for high Richardson numbers, Ri. The WKB solution is extended to a higher order than in previous studies, enabling a rigorous treatment of the effects of shear and curvature of the wind profile on the surface drag. In the hydrostatic approximation, closed formulas for the drag are derived for generic wind profiles, where the relative magnitude of the corrections to the leading-order drag (valid for a constant wind profile) does not depend on the detailed shape of the orography. The drag is found to vary proportionally to Ri21, decreasing as Ri decreases for a wind that varies linearly with height, and increasing as Ri decreases for a wind that rotates with height maintaining its magnitude. In these two cases the surface drag is predicted to be aligned with the surface wind. When one of the wind components varies linearly with height and the other is constant, the surface drag is misaligned with the surface wind, especially for relatively small Ri. All these results are shown to be in fairly good agreement with numerical simulations of mesoscale nonhydrostatic models, for high and even moderate values of Ri.