Describing long-term trends in precipitation using generalized additive models

With the current concern over climate change, descriptions of how rainfall patterns are changing over time can be useful. Observations of daily rainfall data over the last few decades provide information on these trends. Generalized linear models are typically used to model patterns in the occurrence and intensity of rainfall. These models describe rainfall patterns for an average year but are more limited when describing long-term trends, particularly when these are potentially non-linear. Generalized additive models (GAMS) provide a framework for modelling non-linear relationships by fitting smooth functions to the data. This paper describes how GAMS can extend the flexibility of models to describe seasonal patterns and long-term trends in the occurrence and intensity of daily rainfall using data from Mauritius from 1962 to 2001. Smoothed estimates from the models provide useful graphical descriptions of changing rainfall patterns over the last 40 years at this location. GAMS are particularly helpful when exploring non-linear relationships in the data. Care is needed to ensure the choice of smooth functions is appropriate for the data and modelling objectives. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Using an additive to control the electrospinning of fibres of poly(epsilon-caprolactone)

Electrospinning is a route to polymer fibres with diameters considerably smaller than available from most fibre-producing techniques. We explore the use of a low molecular weight compound as an effective control additive during the electrospinning of poly(epsilon-caprolactone). This approach extends the control variables for the electrospinning of nanoscale fibres from the more usual ones such as the polymer molecular weight, solvent and concentration. We show that through the use of dual solvent systems, we can alter the impact of the additive on the electrospinning process so that finer as well as thicker fibres can be prepared under otherwise identical conditions. As well as the size of the fibres and the number of beads, the use of the additive allows us to alter the level of crystallinity as well as the level of preferred orientation of the poly(epsilon-caprolactone) crystals. This approach, involving the use of a dual solvent and a low molar mass compound, offers considerable potential for application to other polymer systems. (C) 2010 Society of Chemical Industry

Generalized neurofuzzy network modeling algorithms using Bezier-Bernstein polynomial functions and additive decomposition

This paper introduces a new neurofuzzy model construction algorithm for nonlinear dynamic systems based upon basis functions that are Bezier-Bernstein polynomial functions. This paper is generalized in that it copes with n-dimensional inputs by utilising an additive decomposition construction to overcome the curse of dimensionality associated with high n. This new construction algorithm also introduces univariate Bezier-Bernstein polynomial functions for the completeness of the generalized procedure. Like the B-spline expansion based neurofuzzy systems, Bezier-Bernstein polynomial function based neurofuzzy networks hold desirable properties such as nonnegativity of the basis functions, unity of support, and interpretability of basis function as fuzzy membership functions, moreover with the additional advantages of structural parsimony and Delaunay input space partition, essentially overcoming the curse of dimensionality associated with conventional fuzzy and RBF networks. This new modeling network is based on additive decomposition approach together with two separate basis function formation approaches for both univariate and bivariate Bezier-Bernstein polynomial functions used in model construction. The overall network weights are then learnt using conventional least squares methods. Numerical examples are included to demonstrate the effectiveness of this new data based modeling approach.

Stability of dobutamine 500 mg in 50 ml syringes prepared using a Central Intravenous Additive Service

Objectives A pharmacy Central Intravenous Additives Service (CIVAS) provides ready to use injectable medicines. However, manipulation of a licensed injectable medicine may significantly alter the stability of drug(s) in the final product. The aim of this study was to develop a stability indicating assay for CIVAS produced dobutamine 500 mg in 50 ml dextrose 1% (w/v) prefilled syringes, and to allocate a suitable shelf life. Methods A stability indicating high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) assay was established for dobutamine. The stability of dobutamine prefilled syringes was evaluated under storage conditions of 4°C (protected from light), room temperature (protected from light), room temperature (exposed to light) and 40°C (protected from light) at various time points (up to 42 days). Results An HPLC method employing a Hypersil column, mobile phase (pH=4.0) consisting of 82:12:6 (v/v/v) 0.05 M KH2PO4:acetonitrile:methanol plus 0.3% (v/v) triethylamine with UV detection at λ=280 nm was specific for dobutamine. Under different storage conditions only samples stored at 40°C showed greater than 5% degradation (5.08%) at 42 days and had the shortest T95% based on this criterion (44.6 days compared with 111.4 days for 4°C). Exposure to light also reduced dobutamine stability. Discolouration on storage was the limiting factor in shelf life allocation, even when dobutamine remained within 5% of the initial concentration. Conclusions A stability indicating HPLC assay for dobutamine was developed. The shelf life recommended for the CIVAS product was 42 days at 4°C and 35 days at room temperature when protected from light.

Rainfall estimation by rain gauge-radar combination: a concurrent multiplicative-additive approach

A procedure (concurrent multiplicative-additive objective analysis scheme [CMA-OAS]) is proposed for operational rainfall estimation using rain gauges and radar data. On the basis of a concurrent multiplicative-additive (CMA) decomposition of the spatially nonuniform radar bias, within-storm variability of rainfall and fractional coverage of rainfall are taken into account. Thus both spatially nonuniform radar bias, given that rainfall is detected, and bias in radar detection of rainfall are handled. The interpolation procedure of CMA-OAS is built on Barnes' objective analysis scheme (OAS), whose purpose is to estimate a filtered spatial field of the variable of interest through a successive correction of residuals resulting from a Gaussian kernel smoother applied on spatial samples. The CMA-OAS, first, poses an optimization problem at each gauge-radar support point to obtain both a local multiplicative-additive radar bias decomposition and a regionalization parameter. Second, local biases and regionalization parameters are integrated into an OAS to estimate the multisensor rainfall at the ground level. The procedure is suited to relatively sparse rain gauge networks. To show the procedure, six storms are analyzed at hourly steps over 10,663 km2. Results generally indicated an improved quality with respect to other methods evaluated: a standard mean-field bias adjustment, a spatially variable adjustment with multiplicative factors, and ordinary cokriging.

Interactions between cocoa flavanols and inorganic nitrate: additive effects on endothelial function at achievable dietary amounts

Dietary intervention studies have shown that flavanols and inorganic nitrate can improve vascular function, suggesting that these two bioactives may be responsible for beneficial health effects of diets rich in fruits and vegetables. We aimed to study interactions between cocoa flavanols (CF) and nitrate, focusing on absorption, bioavailability, excretion, and efficacy to increase endothelial function. In a double-blind randomized, dose-response crossover study, flow-mediated dilation (FMD) was measured in 15 healthy subjects before and at 1, 2, 3, and 4 h after consumption of CF (1.4-10.9 mg/kg bw) or nitrate (0.1-10 mg/kg bw). To study flavanol-nitrate interactions, an additional intervention trial was performed with nitrate and CF taken in sequence at low and high amounts. FMD was measured before (0 h) and at 1h after ingestion of nitrate (3 or 8.5 mg/kg bw) or water. Then subjects received a CF drink (2.7 or 10.9 mg/kg bw) or a micro- and macronutrient-matched CF-free drink. FMD was measured at 1, 2, and 4 h thereafter. Blood and urine samples were collected and assessed for CF and nitric oxide (NO) metabolites with HPLC and gas-phase reductive chemiluminescence. Finally, intragastric formation of NO after CF and nitrate consumption was investigated. Both CF and nitrate induced similar intake-dependent increases in FMD. Maximal values were achieved at 1 h postingestion and gradually decreased to reach baseline values at 4 h. These effects were additive at low intake levels, whereas CF did not further increase FMD after high nitrate intake. Nitrate did not affect flavanol absorption, bioavailability, or excretion, but CF enhanced nitrate-related gastric NO formation and attenuated the increase in plasma nitrite after nitrate intake. Both flavanols and inorganic nitrate can improve endothelial function in healthy subjects at intake amounts that are achievable with a normal diet. Even low dietary intake of these bioactives may exert relevant effects on endothelial function when ingested together.