Fingerprints of changes in annual and seasonal precipitation from CMIP5 models over land and ocean

By comparing annual and seasonal changes in precipitation over land and ocean since 1950 simulated by the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5) climate models in which natural and anthropogenic forcings have been included, we find that clear global-scale and regional-scale changes due to human influence are expected to have occurred over both land and ocean. These include moistening over northern high latitude land and ocean throughout all seasons and over the northern subtropical oceans during boreal winter. However we show that this signal of human influence is less distinct when considered over the relatively small area of land for which there are adequate observations to make assessments of multi-decadal scale trends. These results imply that extensive and significant changes in precipitation over the land and ocean may have already happened, even though, inadequacies in observations in some parts of the world make it difficult to identify conclusively such a human fingerprint on the global water cycle. In some regions and seasons, due to aliasing of different kinds of variability as a result of sub sampling by the sparse and changing observational coverage, observed trends appear to have been increased, underscoring the difficulties of interpreting the apparent magnitude of observed changes in precipitation.

Retrieval of effective ice crystal size in the infrared: sensitivity study and global measurements from TIROS-N Operational Vertical Sounder

The difference between cirrus emissivities at 8 and 11 μm is sensitive to the mean effective ice crystal size of the cirrus cloud, De. By using single scattering properties of ice crystals shaped as planar polycrystals, diameters of up to about 70 μm can be retrieved, instead of up to 45 μm assuming spheres or hexagonal columns. The method described in this article is used for a global determination of mean effective ice crystal sizes of cirrus clouds from TOVS satellite observations. A sensitivity study of the De retrieval to uncertainties in hypotheses on ice crystal shape, size distributions, and temperature profiles, as well as in vertical and horizontal cloud heterogeneities shows that uncertainties can be as large as 30%. However, the TOVS data set is one of few data sets which provides global and long-term coverage. Having analyzed the years 1987–1991, it was found that measured effective ice crystal diameters De are stable from year to year. For 1990 a global median De of 53.5 μm was determined. Averages distinguishing ocean/land, season, and latitude lie between 23 μm in winter over Northern Hemisphere midlatitude land and 64 μm in the tropics. In general, larger Des are found in regions with higher atmospheric water vapor and for cirrus with a smaller effective emissivity.

Inheritance, access to resources and poverty in Serer families in Senegal

This research explores the relationship between inheritance, access to resources and the intergenerational transmission of poverty among the Serer ethnic group in rural and urban environments in Senegal. In many Sub-Saharan African countries, customary law excludes women from owning and inheriting assets, such as land and property. Yet, assets controlled by women often result in increased investments in the next generation's health, nutrition and schooling and reduce the intergenerational transmission of poverty. Qualitative research with 60 participants in Senegal reveals the important role that land, housing and financial assets may play in building resilience to household shocks and interrupting the intergenerational transmission of poverty. However, the protection afforded by these assets was often dependent on other factors, including human, social and environmental capital. The death of a spouse or parent had major emotional and material impacts on many Serer families. The inheritance and control of assets and resources was strongly differentiated among family members along lines of gender, age and generation. Younger widows and their children were particularly vulnerable to chronic poverty. Although inheritance disputes were rare, the research suggests they are more likely between co-wives in polygamous unions and their children, particularly in urban areas. In addition to experiencing economic and health-related shocks, many interviewees were exposed to a range of climate-related risks and environmental pressures which increased their vulnerability. Family members coped with these shocks and risks by diversifying livelihoods, migrating to urban areas and other regions for work, participating in women's co-operatives and associations and developing supportive social networks with extended family and community members. Policies and practices that may help to alleviate poverty, safeguard women's and young people's inheritance and build resilience to financial, health-related and environmental shocks and risks include: - Social protection measures targeted towards poor widows and orphaned children, such as social and cash transfers to pay for basic needs including food, healthcare and children's schooling. - Micro-finance initiatives and credit and savings schemes, alongside training and capacity-building targeted to women and young people to develop income-generation activities and skills. - Free legal advice, support and advocacy for women and young people to pursue inheritance claims through the legal system. - Raising awareness about women's and children's legal rights and working with government and community and religious leaders to tackle discriminatory inheritance practices and contradictions caused by legal pluralism. - Increasing women's control of land and access to inputs, enhancing their business, organisational, and leadership skills and promoting civic participation in local, regional and national decision-making processes. - Improving access to basic services in rural areas, particularly healthcare, building the quality of education and promoting girls' access to education - Enhancing agricultural production and providing more employment opportunities, apprenticeships and vocational training for young people, particularly in rural areas.

Housing supply and brownfield regeneration in a post-Barker world: is there enough brownfield land in England and Scotland?

The findings of the Barker review, which examined the reasons for the undersupply of UK housing, have important implications for the devolved constituents of the UK, including Scotland. This paper traces the emergence of the brownfi eld regeneration policy agenda across the UK and examines how the Barker review connects with this brownfi eld policy focus. The paper compares housing and brownfi eld policies and practices in England and Scotland, places them in an international context and elicits wider lessons for devolved governance in relation to housing policy, in terms of ‘centrist–local’ tensions. Estimates based on published data suggest that Barker’s emphasis on increased housing supply cannot easily be reconciled with the current emphasis on brownfi eld development and is likely to require a return to greenfield development in both countries.

Land surface feedbacks and palaeomonsoons in northern Africa

We ran a sequence of climate model experiments for 6000 years ago, with land-surface conditions based on a realistic map of palaeovegetation, lakes and wetlands, to quantify the effects of land-surface feedbacks in the Saharan region. Vegetation-induced albedo and moisture flux changes produced year-round warming, forced the monsoon to 17°–25°N two months earlier, and shifted the precipitation belt ≈300 km northwards compared to the effects of orbital forcing alone. The addition of lakes and wetlands produced localised changes in evaporation and precipitation, but caused no further extension of the monsoon belt. Diagnostic analyses with biome and continental hydrology models showed that the combined land-surface feedbacks, although substantial, could neither maintain grassland as far north as observed (≈26°N) nor maintain Lake “MegaChad” (330,000 km²).

Mid-Holocene land-surface conditions in northern Africa and the Arabian peninsula: a data set for the analysis of biogeophysical feedbacks in the climate system

Large changes in the extent of northern subtropical arid regions during the Holocene are attributed to orbitally forced variations in monsoon strength and have been implicated in the regulation of atmospheric trace gas concentrations on millenial timescales. Models that omit biogeophysical feedback, however, are unable to account for the full magnitude of African monsoon amplification and extension during the early to middle Holocene (˜9500–5000 years B.P.). A data set describing land-surface conditions 6000 years B.P. on a 1° × 1° grid across northern Africa and the Arabian Peninsula has been prepared from published maps and other sources of palaeoenvironmental data, with the primary aim of providing a realistic lower boundary condition for atmospheric general circulation model experiments similar to those performed in the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project. The data set includes information on the percentage of each grid cell occupied by specific vegetation types (steppe, savanna, xerophytic woods/scrub, tropical deciduous forest, and tropical montane evergreen forest), open water (lakes), and wetlands, plus information on the flow direction of major drainage channels for use in large-scale palaeohydrological modeling.