The selected poetry and prose of Vittorio Sereni

2013 centenary corrected paperback edition of a 2006 publication, with introduction, co-translations, and notes

Relationship between resistance factors and treatment efficacy when bromadiolone was used against anticoagulant-resistant Norway rats (Rattus norvegicus Berk.) in Wales

We investigated the relationship between the severity and incidence of resistance among Norway rats (Rattus norvegicus) on a farm in Wales and the subsequent outcome of a practical rodent control operation. Bromadiolone resistance factors were estimated for rats trapped on the farm using the blood clotting response test, and were found to be 2 to 3 for male rats and approximately 6 for females. The incidence of resistance in the rat population was high. Infestation size was estimated by census baiting and tracking, and was found to be substantial, with a maximum of 6.5 kg of bait being eaten on a single night. A proprietary rodenticide (Deadline (TM)), containing 0.005% bromadiolone, was used to control the infestation. The duration of baiting was 35 days and, according to the two methods of assessment used, treatment success was in the region of 87 and 93%. No evidence was observed of a significant impact of resistance on the rat control operation, and the remaining rats of this very heavy infestation would probably have been controlled if baiting had continued for longer.

Susceptibility to the anticoagulants bromadiolone and coumatetralyl in wild Norway rats (Rattus norvegicus) from the UK and Germany

A new blood clotting response test was used to determine the susceptibility, to coumatetralyl and bromadiolone, of laboratory strains of Norway rat from Germany and the UK (Hampshire), and wild rats trapped on farms in Wales (UK) and Westphalia (Germany). Resistance factors were calculated in relation to the CD strain of Norway rat. An outbred strain of wild rats, raised from rats trapped in Germany, was found to be more susceptible to coumatetralyl by a factor of 0.5-0.6 compared to the CD strain. Homozygous and heterozygous animals of a strain of resistant rats from Westphalia were cross-resistant to coumatetralyl and bromadiolone, with a higher resistance factor for bromadiolone than that found in both UK strains. Our results show that the degree of altered susceptibility and resistance varies between strains of wild rat and between resistance foci. Some wild rat strains may be more susceptible than laboratory rat strains. Even in a well-established resistance area, it may be difficult to find infestations with resistance high enough to suspect control problems with bromadiolone, even after decades of use of this compound.

A standardised BCR resistance test for all anticoagulant rodenticides

This paper presents a reappraisal of the blood clotting response (BCR) tests for anticoagulant rodenticides, and proposes a standardised methodology for identifying and quantifying physiological resistance in populations of rodent species. The standardisation is based on the International Normalised Ratio, which is standardised against a WHO international reference preparation of thromboplastin, and allows comparison of data obtained using different thromboplastin reagents. ne methodology is statistically sound, being based on the 50% response, and has been validated against the Norway rat (Rattus norvegicus) and the house mouse (Mus domesticus). Susceptibility baseline data are presented for warfarin, diphacinone, chlorophacinone and coumatetralyl against the Norway rat, and for bromadiolone, difenacoum, difethialone, flocoumafen and brodifacoum against the Norway rat and the house mouse. A 'test dose' of twice the ED50 can be used for initial identification of resistance, and will provide a similar level of information to previously published methods. Higher multiples of the ED50 can be used to assess the resistance factor, and to predict the likely impact on field control.

The rodent species of the Ifugao Rice Terraces, Philippines - Target or non-target species for management?

We investigated the species diversity and habitat use of rodents in the Ifugao Rice Terraces (IRT), Luzon, Philippines, as a first step in their assessment either as pest species of rice or as potential non-target species of rodent control practice. Trapping was carried out in caneland and forest habitats adjacent to rice cropland using trap lines of 10 - 15 cage-traps. Four trapping rounds, each consisting of 5 nights trapping, were replicated at two sites during the months of May and June. A diverse rodent fauna was recorded, including the non-native pest species, Rattus tanezumi, and the native species, Rattus everetti and Chrotomys mindorensis. Results from trapping and spool-and-line tracking suggested that these native species do not contribute to rice damage and that several may actually be beneficial in the ricefield ecosystem as vermivores that feed on invertebrate pests. Control should therefore be directed at the pest species, R. tanezumi, minimising non-target effects on the non-pest rodent species.

The genetic basis of resistance to anticoagulants in rodents

Anticoagulant compounds, i.e., derivatives of either 4-hydroxycoumarin (e.g., warfarin, bromadiolone) or indane-1,3-dione (e.g., diphacinone, chlorophacinone), have been in worldwide use as rodenticides for > 50 years. These compounds inhibit blood coagulation by repression of the vitamin K reductase reaction (VKOR). Anticoagulant-resistant rodent populations have been reported from many countries and pose a considerable problem for pest control. Resistance is transmitted as an autosomal dominant trait although, until recently, the basic genetic mutation was unknown. Here, we report on the identification of eight different mutations in the VKORC1 gene in resistant laboratory strains of brown rats and house mice and in wild-caught brown rats from various locations in Europe with five of these mutations affecting only two amino acids (Tyr139Cys, Tyr139Ser, Tyr139Phe and Leu128Gln, Leu128Ser). By recombinant expression of VKORC1 constructs in HEK293 cells we demonstrate that mutations at Tyr139 confer resistance to warlarin at variable degrees while the other mutations, in addition, dramatically reduce VKOR activity. Our data strongly argue for at least seven independent mutation events in brown rats and two in mice. They suggest that mutations in VKORC1 are the genetic basis of anticoagulant resistance in wild populations of rodents, although the mutations alone do not explain all aspects of resistance that have been reported. We hypothesize that these mutations, apart from generating structural changes in the VKORC1 protein, may induce compensatory mechanisms to maintain blood clotting. Our findings provide the basis for a DNA-based field monitoring of anticoagulant resistance in rodents.

Anticoagulant resistance in Norway rats (Rattus norvegicus Berk.) in Kent - a VKORC1 single nucleotide polymorphism, tyrosine139phenylalanine, new to the UK

A sample of 10 Norway rats (Rattus norvegicus) was taken for DNA resistance testing from an agricultural site in Kent where applications of the anticoagulant rodenticide bromadiolone had been unsuccessful. All animals tested were homozygous for the single nucleotide VKORC1 polymorphism tyrosine139phenylalanine, or Y139F. This is a common resistance mutation found extensively in France and Belgium but not previously in the UK. Y139F confers a significant level of resistance to first-generation anticoagulants, such as chlorophacinone, and to the second-generation compound bromadiolone. Another compound widely used in the UK, difenacoum, is also thought to be partially resisted by rats which carry Y139F. A silent VKORC1 mutation was also found in all rats tested. The presence of a third important VKORC1 mutation which confers resistance to anticoagulant rodenticides in widespread use in the UK, the others being Y139C and L120Q, further threatens the ability of pest control practitioners to deliver effective rodent control.

Blood-clotting response tests for resistance to diphacinone and chlorophacinone in the Norway rat (Rattus norvegicus Berk.)

Resistance baselines were obtained for the first generation anticoagulant rodenticides chlorophacinone and diphacinone using laboratory, caesarian-derived Norway rats (Rattus norvegicus) as the susceptible strain and the blood clotting response test method. The ED99 estimates for a quantal response were: chlorophacinone, males 0.86 mg kg−1, females 1.03 mg kg−1; diphacinone, males 1.26 mg kg−1, females 1.60 mg kg−1. The dose-response data also showed that chlorophacinone was significantly (p<0.0001) more potent than diphacinone for both male and female rats, and that male rats were more susceptible than females to both compounds (p<0.002). The ED99 doses were then given to groups of five male and five female rats of the Welsh and Hampshire warfarin-resistant strains. Twenty-four hours later, prothrombin times were slightly elevated in both strains but all the animals were classified as resistant to the two compounds, indicating cross-resistance from warfarin to diphacinone and chlorophacinone. When rats of the two resistant strains were fed for six consecutive days on baits containing either diphacinone or chlorophacinone, many animals survived, indicating that their resistance might enable them to survive treatments with these compounds in the field.

Visualizing probabilistic flood forecast information: expert preferences and perceptions of best practice in uncertainty communication

The aim of this article is to improve the communication of the probabilistic flood forecasts generated by hydrological ensemble prediction systems (HEPS) by understanding perceptions of different methods of visualizing probabilistic forecast information. This study focuses on interexpert communication and accounts for differences in visualization requirements based on the information content necessary for individual users. The perceptions of the expert group addressed in this study are important because they are the designers and primary users of existing HEPS. Nevertheless, they have sometimes resisted the release of uncertainty information to the general public because of doubts about whether it can be successfully communicated in ways that would be readily understood to nonexperts. In this article, we explore the strengths and weaknesses of existing HEPS visualization methods and thereby formulate some wider recommendations about the best practice for HEPS visualization and communication. We suggest that specific training on probabilistic forecasting would foster use of probabilistic forecasts with a wider range of applications. The result of a case study exercise showed that there is no overarching agreement between experts on how to display probabilistic forecasts and what they consider the essential information that should accompany plots and diagrams. In this article, we propose a list of minimum properties that, if consistently displayed with probabilistic forecasts, would make the products more easily understandable. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Forecasters priorities for improving probabilistic flood forecasts.

Hydrological ensemble prediction systems (HEPS) have in recent years been increasingly used for the operational forecasting of floods by European hydrometeorological agencies. The most obvious advantage of HEPS is that more of the uncertainty in the modelling system can be assessed. In addition, ensemble prediction systems generally have better skill than deterministic systems both in the terms of the mean forecast performance and the potential forecasting of extreme events. Research efforts have so far mostly been devoted to the improvement of the physical and technical aspects of the model systems, such as increased resolution in time and space and better description of physical processes. Developments like these are certainly needed; however, in this paper we argue that there are other areas of HEPS that need urgent attention. This was also the result from a group exercise and a survey conducted to operational forecasters within the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) to identify the top priorities of improvement regarding their own system. They turned out to span a range of areas, the most popular being to include verification of an assessment of past forecast performance, a multi-model approach for hydrological modelling, to increase the forecast skill on the medium range (>3 days) and more focus on education and training on the interpretation of forecasts. In light of limited resources, we suggest a simple model to classify the identified priorities in terms of their cost and complexity to decide in which order to tackle them. This model is then used to create an action plan of short-, medium- and long-term research priorities with the ultimate goal of an optimal improvement of EFAS in particular and to spur the development of operational HEPS in general.