Representing the acquisition and use of energy by individuals in agent-based models of animal populations

Summary 1. Agent-based models (ABMs) are widely used to predict how populations respond to changing environments. As the availability of food varies in space and time, individuals should have their own energy budgets, but there is no consensus as to how these should be modelled. Here, we use knowledge of physiological ecology to identify major issues confronting the modeller and to make recommendations about how energy budgets for use in ABMs should be constructed. 2. Our proposal is that modelled animals forage as necessary to supply their energy needs for maintenance, growth and reproduction. If there is sufficient energy intake, an animal allocates the energy obtained in the order: maintenance, growth, reproduction, energy storage, until its energy stores reach an optimal level. If there is a shortfall, the priorities for maintenance and growth/reproduction remain the same until reserves fall to a critical threshold below which all are allocated to maintenance. Rates of ingestion and allocation depend on body mass and temperature. We make suggestions for how each of these processes should be modelled mathematically. 3. Mortality rates vary with body mass and temperature according to known relationships, and these can be used to obtain estimates of background mortality rate. 4. If parameter values cannot be obtained directly, then values may provisionally be obtained by parameter borrowing, pattern-oriented modelling, artificial evolution or from allometric equations. 5. The development of ABMs incorporating individual energy budgets is essential for realistic modelling of populations affected by food availability. Such ABMs are already being used to guide conservation planning of nature reserves and shell fisheries, to assess environmental impacts of building proposals including wind farms and highways and to assess the effects on nontarget organisms of chemicals for the control of agricultural pests. Keywords: bioenergetics; energy budget; individual-based models; population dynamics.

Reproduction recovery of the crustacean Daphnia magna after chronic exposure to ibuprofen

In mammals, the pharmaceutical ibuprofen (IB), a non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug, primarily functions by reversibly inhibiting the cyclooxygenase (COX) pathway in the synthesis of eicosanoids (e.g. prostaglandins). Previous studies suggest that IB may act in a similar manner to interrupt production of eicosanoids reducing reproduction in the model crustacean Daphnia magna. On this basis withdrawal of IB should lead to the recovery of D. magna reproduction. Here we test whether the effect of IB is reversible in D. magna, as it is in mammals, by observing reproduction recovery following chronic exposure. D. magna (5-days old) were exposed to a range of IB concentrations (0, 20, 40 and 80 mg l(-1)) for 10 days followed by a 10 day recovery period in uncontaminated water. During the exposure period, individuals exposed to higher concentrations produced significantly fewer offspring. Thereafter, IB-stressed individuals produced offspring faster during recovery, having similar average population growth rates (PGR) (1.15-1.28) to controls by the end of the test. It appears that maternal daphnids are susceptible to IB during egg maturation. This is the first recorded recovery of reproduction in aquatic invertebrates that suffered reproductive inhibition during chronic exposure to a chemical stressor. Our results suggest a possible theory behind the compensatory fecundity that we referred to as 'catch-up reproduction'.

Generating virtual environments to allow increased access to the built environment

The problems encountered by individuals with disabilities when accessing large public buildings is described and a solution based on the generation of virtual models of the built environment is proposed. These models are superimposed on a control network infrastructure, currently utilised in intelligent building applications such as lighting, heating and access control. The use of control network architectures facilitates the creation of distributed models that closely mirror both the physical and control properties of the environment. The model of the environment is kept local to the installation which allows the virtual representation of a large building to be decomposed into an interconnecting series of smaller models. This paper describes two methods of interacting with the virtual model, firstly a two dimensional aural representation that can be used as the basis of a portable navigational device. Secondly an augmented reality called DAMOCLES that overlays additional information on a user’s normal field of view. The provision of virtual environments offers new possibilities in the man-machine interface so that intuitive access to network based services and control functions can be given to a user.

Approximation by harmonic polynomials in star-shaped domains and exponential convergence of Trefftz hp-dGFEM

We study the approximation of harmonic functions by means of harmonic polynomials in two-dimensional, bounded, star-shaped domains. Assuming that the functions possess analytic extensions to a delta-neighbourhood of the domain, we prove exponential convergence of the approximation error with respect to the degree of the approximating harmonic polynomial. All the constants appearing in the bounds are explicit and depend only on the shape-regularity of the domain and on delta. We apply the obtained estimates to show exponential convergence with rate O(exp(−b square root N)), N being the number of degrees of freedom and b>0, of a hp-dGFEM discretisation of the Laplace equation based on piecewise harmonic polynomials. This result is an improvement over the classical rate O(exp(−b cubic root N )), and is due to the use of harmonic polynomial spaces, as opposed to complete polynomial spaces.

Do turning biases by the 7-spot ladybird, Coccinella septempunctata, increase their foraging efficiency?

The hypothesis that foraging male and female Coccinella septempunctata L. would exhibit a turning bias when walking along a branched linear wire in a Y-maze was tested. Individuals were placed repeatedly in the maze. Approximately 45% of all individuals tested displayed significant turning biases, with a similar number of individuals biased to the left and right. In the maze right-handed individuals turned right at 84.4% of turns and the left-handed individuals turned left at 80.2% of turns. A model of the searching efficiency of C. septempunctata in dichotomous branched environments showed that model coccinellids with greater turning biases discovered a higher proportion of the plant for a given number of searches than those with no bias. A modification of the model to investigate foraging efficiency, by calculating the mean time taken by individuals to find randomly distributed aphid patches, suggested that on four different sizes of plants, with a variety of aphid patch densities, implementing a turning bias was a significantly more efficient foraging strategy than no bias. In general the benefits to foraging of implementing a turning bias increased with the degree of the bias. It may be beneficial for individuals in highly complex branched environments to have a turning bias slightly lower than 100% in order to benefit from increased foraging efficiency without walking in circles. Foraging bias benefits increased with increasing plant size and decreasing aphid density. In comparisons of two different plant morphologies, one with a straight stem and side branches and one with a symmetrically branched morphology, there were few significant differences in the effects of turning biases on foraging efficiency between morphologies

Involving users in expert system development

The ultimate criterion of success for interactive expert systems is that they will be used, and used to effect, by individuals other than the system developers. A key ingredient of success in most systems is involving users in the specification and development of systems as they are being built. However, until recently, system designers have paid little attention to ascertaining user needs and to developing systems with corresponding functionality and appropriate interfaces to match those requirements. Although the situation is beginning to change, many developers do not know how to go about involving users, or else tackle the problem in an inadequate way. This paper discusses the need for user involvement and considers why many developers are still not involving users in an optimal way. It looks at the different ways in which users can be involved in the development process and describes how to select appropriate techniques and methods for studying users. Finally, it discusses some of the problems inherent in involving users in expert system development, and recommends an approach which incorporates both ethnographic analysis and formal user testing.

Managing threatened species – the ecological toolbox, evolutionary theory and the declining-population paradigm

1. The management of threatened species is an important practical way in which conservationists can intervene in the extinction process and reduce the loss of biodiversity. Understanding the causes of population declines (past, present and future) is pivotal to designing effective practical management. This is the declining-population paradigm identified by Caughley. 2. There are three broad classes of ecological tool used by conservationists to guide management decisions for threatened species: statistical models of habitat use, demographic models and behaviour-based models. Each of these is described here, illustrated with a case study and evaluated critically in terms of its practical application. 3. These tools are fundamentally different. Statistical models of habitat use and demographic models both use descriptions of patterns in abundance and demography, in relation to a range of factors, to inform management decisions. In contrast, behaviourbased models describe the evolutionary processes underlying these patterns, and derive such patterns from the strategies employed by individuals when competing for resources under a specific set of environmental conditions. 4. Statistical models of habitat use and demographic models have been used successfully to make management recommendations for declining populations. To do this, assumptions are made about population growth or vital rates that will apply when environmental conditions are restored, based on either past data collected under favourable environmental conditions or estimates of these parameters when the agent of decline is removed. As a result, they can only be used to make reliable quantitative predictions about future environments when a comparable environment has been experienced by the population of interest in the past. 5. Many future changes in the environment driven by management will not have been experienced by a population in the past. Under these circumstances, vital rates and their relationship with population density will change in the future in a way that is not predictable from past patterns. Reliable quantitative predictions about population-level responses then need to be based on an explicit consideration of the evolutionary processes operating at the individual level. 6. Synthesis and applications. It is argued that evolutionary theory underpins Caughley’s declining-population paradigm, and that it needs to become much more widely used within mainstream conservation biology. This will help conservationists examine critically the reliability of the tools they have traditionally used to aid management decision-making. It will also give them access to alternative tools, particularly when predictions are required for changes in the environment that have not been experienced by a population in the past.

Mapping the landscape of the lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus stable signal peptide reveals novel functional domains

The stable signal peptide (SSP) of the lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus surface glycoprotein precursor has several unique characteristics. The SSP is unusually long, at 58 amino acids, and contains two hydrophobic domains, and its sequence is highly conserved among both Old and New World arenaviruses. To better understand the functions of the SSP, a panel of point and deletion mutants was created by in vitro mutagenesis to target the highly conserved elements within the SSP. We were also able to confirm critical residues required for separate SSP functions by trans-complementation. Using these approaches, it was possible to resolve functional domains of the SSP. In characterizing our SSP mutants, we discovered that the SSP is involved in several distinct functions within the viral life cycle, beyond translocation of the viral surface glycoprotein precursor into the endoplasmic reticulum lumen. The SSP is required for efficient glycoprotein expression, posttranslational maturation cleavage of GP1 and GP2 by SKI-1/S1P protease, glycoprotein transport to the cell surface plasma membrane, formation of infectious virus particles, and acid pH-dependent glycoprotein-mediated cell fusion.

Managing threatened species: the ecological toolbox, evolutionary theory and declining-population paradigm

1. The management of threatened species is an important practical way in which conservationists can intervene in the extinction process and reduce the loss of biodiversity. Understanding the causes of population declines (past, present and future) is pivotal to designing effective practical management. This is the declining-population paradigm identified by Caughley. 2. There are three broad classes of ecological tool used by conservationists to guide management decisions for threatened species: statistical models of habitat use, demographic models and behaviour-based models. Each of these is described here, illustrated with a case study and evaluated critically in terms of its practical application. 3. These tools are fundamentally different. Statistical models of habitat use and demographic models both use descriptions of patterns in abundance and demography, in relation to a range of factors, to inform management decisions. In contrast, behaviour-based models describe the evolutionary processes underlying these patterns, and derive such patterns from the strategies employed by individuals when competing for resources under a specific set of environmental conditions. 4. Statistical models of habitat use and demographic models have been used successfully to make management recommendations for declining populations. To do this, assumptions are made about population growth or vital rates that will apply when environmental conditions are restored, based on either past data collected under favourable environmental conditions or estimates of these parameters when the agent of decline is removed. As a result, they can only be used to make reliable quantitative predictions about future environments when a comparable environment has been experienced by the population of interest in the past. 5. Many future changes in the environment driven by management will not have been experienced by a population in the past. Under these circumstances, vital rates and their relationship with population density will change in the future in a way that is not predictable from past patterns. Reliable quantitative predictions about population-level responses then need to be based on an explicit consideration of the evolutionary processes operating at the individual level. 6. Synthesis and applications. It is argued that evolutionary theory underpins Caughley's declining-population paradigm, and that it needs to become much more widely used within mainstream conservation biology. This will help conservationists examine critically the reliability of the tools they have traditionally used to aid management decision-making. It will also give them access to alternative tools, particularly when predictions are required for changes in the environment that have not been experienced by a population in the past.

Knowledge sharing: Context, confusion and controversy

Project managers in the construction industry increasingly seek to learn from other industrial sectors. Knowledge sharing between different contexts is thus viewed as an essential source of competitive advantage. It is important therefore for project managers from all sectors to address and develop appropriate methods of knowledge sharing. However, too often it is assumed that knowledge freely exists and can be captured and shared between contexts. Such assumptions belie complexities and problems awaiting the unsuspecting knowledge-sharing protagonist. Knowledge per se is a problematic esoteric concept that does not lend itself easily to codification. Specifically tacit knowledge possessed by individuals, presents particular methodological issues for those considering harnessing its utility in return for competitive advantage. The notion that knowledge is also embedded in specific social contexts compounds this complexity. It is argued that knowledge is highly individualistic and concomitant with the various surrounding contexts within which it is shaped and enacted. Indeed, these contexts are also shaped as a consequence of knowledge adding further complexity to the problem domain. Current methods of knowledge capture, transfer and, sharing fall short of addressing these problematic issues. Research is presented that addresses these problems and proposes an alternative method of knowledge sharing. Drawing on data and observations collected from its application, the findings clearly demonstrate the crucial role of re-contextualisation, social interaction and dialectic debate in understanding knowledge sharing.

Mental rotation in Williams syndrome: an impaired ability

Typically developing young children and individuals with intellectual disabilities often perform poorly on mental rotation tasks when the stimulus they are rotating lacks a salient component. However. performance can he improved when salience is increased. The present study investigated the effect of salience oil mental rotation performance by individuals with Williams syndrome. Individuals with Williams syndrome and matched controls were presented with two versions of a mental rotation task: a no salient component condition and a salient component condition. The results showed that component salience did not benefit individuals with Williams syndrome in the same manner as it did controls.

Ontology supported competency system

Traditionally representation of competencies has been very difficult using computer-based techniques. This paper introduces competencies, how they are represented, and the related concept of competency frameworks and the difficulties in using traditional ontology techniques to formalise them. A “vaguely” formalised framework has been developed within the EU project TRACE and is presented. The framework can be used to represent different competencies and competency frameworks. Through a case study using an example from the IT sector, it is shown how these can be used by individuals and organisations to specify their individual competency needs. Furthermore it is described how these representations are used for comparisons between different specifications applying ontologies and ontology toolsets. The end result is a comparison that is not binary, but tertiary, providing “definite matches”, possible / partial matches, and “no matches” using a “traffic light” analogy.

Construction management research at the individual-level of analysis: current status, gaps and future directions

Individual-level constructs are seldom taken into consideration in construction management research relating to project performance. This is antithetical to the objectives of properly conceptualizing and contextualizing the research we do because many project performance outcomes, such as the extent of cooperation and level of communication or teamwork are influenced and moderated by individuals’ perceptions, values and behaviour. A brief review of the literature in organizational studies centred on culture, identity, empowerment and trust is offered. These constructs are then explored in relation to project performance issues and outcomes, and it is noted that they are predominantly studied at the project and industry levels. We argue that focusing these constructs at the individual unit of analysis has significant implications for project performance and therefore their effects need to be systematically accounted for in explanations of the success and failure of projects. Far from being prescriptive, the aim is to generate interest and awareness for more focused research at the individual level of analysis in order to add new insights and perspectives to critical performance questions in construction management. To this end, a research agenda is outlined, arguing that construction management research integrating individual-level constructs and broader, macro-contextual issues will help define and enhance the legitimacy of the field.

Using an individual-based model to select among alternative foraging strategies of woodpigeons: data support a memory-based model with a flocking mechanism

Population modelling is increasingly recognised as a useful tool for pesticide risk assessment. For vertebrates that may ingest pesticides with their food, such as woodpigeon (Columba palumbus), population models that simulate foraging behaviour explicitly can help predicting both exposure and population-level impact. Optimal foraging theory is often assumed to explain the individual-level decisions driving distributions of individuals in the field, but it may not adequately predict spatial and temporal characteristics of woodpigeon foraging because of the woodpigeons’ excellent memory, ability to fly long distances, and distinctive flocking behaviour. Here we present an individual-based model (IBM) of the woodpigeon. We used the model to predict distributions of foraging woodpigeons that use one of six alternative foraging strategies: optimal foraging, memory-based foraging and random foraging, each with or without flocking mechanisms. We used pattern-oriented modelling to determine which of the foraging strategies is best able to reproduce observed data patterns. Data used for model evaluation were gathered during a long-term woodpigeon study conducted between 1961 and 2004 and a radiotracking study conducted in 2003 and 2004, both in the UK, and are summarised here as three complex patterns: the distributions of foraging birds between vegetation types during the year, the number of fields visited daily by individuals, and the proportion of fields revisited by them on subsequent days. The model with a memory-based foraging strategy and a flocking mechanism was the only one to reproduce these three data patterns, and the optimal foraging model produced poor matches to all of them. The random foraging strategy reproduced two of the three patterns but was not able to guarantee population persistence. We conclude that with the memory-based foraging strategy including a flocking mechanism our model is realistic enough to estimate the potential exposure of woodpigeons to pesticides. We discuss how exposure can be linked to our model, and how the model could be used for risk assessment of pesticides, for example predicting exposure and effects in heterogeneous landscapes planted seasonally with a variety of crops, while accounting for differences in land use between landscapes.

Managing governance, risk and compliance for post-crisis regulatory change: a model of IS capabilities for financial organizations

The 2008-2009 financial crisis and related organizational and economic failures have meant that financial organizations are faced with a ‘tsunami’ of new regulatory obligations. This environment provides new managerial challenges as organizations are forced to engage in complex and costly remediation projects with short deadlines. Drawing from a longitudinal study conducted with nine financial institutions over twelve years, this paper identifies nine IS capabilities which underpin activities for managing regulatory themed governance, risk and compliance efforts. The research shows that many firms are now focused on meeting the Regulators’ deadlines at the expense of developing a strategic, enterprise-wide connected approach to compliance. Consequently, executives are in danger of implementing siloed compliance solutions within business functions. By evaluating the maturity of their IS capabilities which underpin regulatory adherence, managers have an opportunity to develop robust operational architectures and so are better positioned to face the challenges derived from shifting regulatory landscapes.