Quantifying uncertainty in critical loads: (B) acidity mass balance critical loads on a sensitive site

This paper reports an uncertainty analysis of critical loads for acid deposition for a site in southern England, using the Steady State Mass Balance Model. The uncertainty bounds, distribution type and correlation structure for each of the 18 input parameters was considered explicitly, and overall uncertainty estimated by Monte Carlo methods. Estimates of deposition uncertainty were made from measured data and an atmospheric dispersion model, and hence the uncertainty in exceedance could also be calculated. The uncertainties of the calculated critical loads were generally much lower than those of the input parameters due to a "compensation of errors" mechanism - coefficients of variation ranged from 13% for CLmaxN to 37% for CL(A). With 1990 deposition, the probability that the critical load was exceeded was > 0.99; to reduce this probability to 0.50, a 63% reduction in deposition is required; to 0.05, an 82% reduction. With 1997 deposition, which was lower than that in 1990, exceedance probabilities declined and uncertainties in exceedance narrowed as deposition uncertainty had less effect. The parameters contributing most to the uncertainty in critical loads were weathering rates, base cation uptake rates, and choice of critical chemical value, indicating possible research priorities. However, the different critical load parameters were to some extent sensitive to different input parameters. The application of such probabilistic results to environmental regulation is discussed.

Dihydrogen in cation-substituted zeolites X - an inelastic neutron scattering study

An inelastic neutron scattering (INS) study of the rotational - vibrational spectrum of dihydrogen sorbed by zeolite X having substituted sodium, calcium and zinc cations is reported. The rotational - vibrational spectrum of H-2 was observed at low energy transfer ( below ca. 25 meV, 202 cm(-1)); the vibration was that of the H-2 molecule against the binding site (H-2 - X, not H - H). The vibration frequency was proportional to the polarising power of the cation (Na+ < Ca2+ < Zn2+). Polarisation of the H-2 molecule dominated the interaction of H-2 with this binding site. The total scattering intensity was proportional to the dihydrogen dose. However the vibrational intensities became constant at ca. 0.3 wt% showing that the H-2 binding sites had saturated. Additional dihydrogen appeared as unbound or weakly bound dihydrogen exhibiting recoil.

Conformational and hydration effects of site-selective sodium, calcium and strontium ion binding to the DNA Holliday junction structure d(TCGGTACCGA)(4)

The role of metal ions in determining the solution conformation of the Holliday junction is well established, but to date the picture of metal ion binding from structural studies of the four-way DNA junction is very incomplete. Here we present two refined structures of the Holliday junction formed by the sequence d(TCGGTACCGA) in the presence of Na+ and Ca2+, and separately with Sr2+ to resolutions of 1.85 Angstrom and 1.65 Angstrom, respectively. This sequence includes the ACC core found to promote spontaneous junction formation, but its structure has not previously been reported. Almost complete hydration spheres can be defined for each metal cation. The Na+ sites, the most convincing observation of such sites in junctions to date, are one on either face of the junction crossover region, and stabilise the ordered hydration inside the junction arms. The four Ca2+ sites in the same structure are at the CG/CG steps in the minor groove. The Sr2+ ions occupy the TC/AG, GG/CC, and TA/TA sites in the minor groove, giving ten positions forming two spines of ions, spiralling through the minor grooves within each arm of the stacked-X structure. The two structures were solved in the two different C2 lattices previously observed, with the Sr2+ derivative crystallising in the more highly symmetrical form with two-fold symmetry at its centre. Both structures show an opening of the minor groove face of the junction of 8.4degrees in the Ca2+ and Na+ containing structure, and 13.4degrees in the Sr2+ containing structure. The crossover angles at the junction are 39.3degrees and 43.3degrees, respectively. In addition to this, a relative shift in the base pair stack alignment of the arms of 2.3 Angstrom is observed for the Sr2+ containing structure only. Overall these results provide an insight into the so-far elusive stabilising ion structure for the DNA Holliday junction. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

The relationship between diffuse spectral reflectance of the soil and its cation exchange capacity is scale-dependent

Diffuse reflectance spectroscopy (DRS) is increasingly being used to predict numerous soil physical, chemical and biochemical properties. However, soil properties and processes vary at different scales and, as a result, relationships between soil properties often depend on scale. In this paper we report on how the relationship between one such property, cation exchange capacity (CEC), and the DRS of the soil depends on spatial scale. We show this by means of a nested analysis of covariance of soils sampled on a balanced nested design in a 16 km × 16 km area in eastern England. We used principal components analysis on the DRS to obtain a reduced number of variables while retaining key variation. The first principal component accounted for 99.8% of the total variance, the second for 0.14%. Nested analysis of the variation in the CEC and the two principal components showed that the substantial variance components are at the > 2000-m scale. This is probably the result of differences in soil composition due to parent material. We then developed a model to predict CEC from the DRS and used partial least squares (PLS) regression do to so. Leave-one-out cross-validation results suggested a reasonable predictive capability (R2 = 0.71 and RMSE = 0.048 molc kg− 1). However, the results from the independent validation were not as good, with R2 = 0.27, RMSE = 0.056 molc kg− 1 and an overall correlation of 0.52. This would indicate that DRS may not be useful for predictions of CEC. When we applied the analysis of covariance between predicted and observed we found significant scale-dependent correlations at scales of 50 and 500 m (0.82 and 0.73 respectively). DRS measurements can therefore be useful to predict CEC if predictions are required, for example, at the field scale (50 m). This study illustrates that the relationship between DRS and soil properties is scale-dependent and that this scale dependency has important consequences for prediction of soil properties from DRS data

Plant remains as evidence for seasonality of site use in the Mesolithic period

Attempts to identify the seasons during which Mesolithic sites may have been occupied have usually concentrated on evidence from faunal assemblages, while the potential of plant remains has been largely neglected. In this paper the use of plant remains as indicators of seasonality is discussed, especially where they represent the accidental charring of species unlikely to have been deliberately collected and stored. This is illustrated with reference to the early Mesolithic site of Star Carr, North Yorkshire, and discussed in the context of other Mesolithic sites from which assemblages of charred plant remains have been recovered.

New radiocarbon accelerator dates on artefacts from the early Mesolithic site of Star Carr, North Yorkshire

For the well-known early Mesolithic site of Star Carr, dating of organic artefacts by accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) has been hampered by treatment of bone and antler recovered during the original excavations with preservatives. Some, untreated, artefacts were, however, collected after Clark's excavation in 1950. Four of these artefacts were AMS dated in 1995, but two of the dates were significantly younger than the others, and were questionable due to their low collagen yields. These suspect samples have now been re-analysed, demonstrating that all four artefacts are of similar date. The significance of these dates for the chronology of Star Carr is discussed.

Joined-up archaeology at Old Scatness, Shetland: thin section analysis of the site and hinterland

Excavations on the multi-period settlement at Old Scatness, Shetland have uncovered a number of Iron Age structures with compacted, floor-like layers. Thin section analysis was undertaken in order to investigate and compare the characteristics of these layers. The investigation also draws on earlier analyses of the Iron Age agricultural soil around the settlement and the midden deposits that accumulated within the settlement, to create a 'joined-up' analysis which considers the way material from the settlement was used and then recycled as fertiliser for the fields. Peat was collected from the nearby uplands and was used for fuel and possibly also for flooring. It is suggested that organic-rich floors from the structures were periodically removed and the material was spread onto the fields as fertilisers. More organic-rich material may have been used selectively for fertiliser, while the less organic peat ash was allowed to accumulate in middens. Several of the structures may have functioned as byres, which suggests a prehistoric plaggen system.