The economic impact of genetically modified cotton on South African smallholders: Yield, profit and health effects

Results of a large-scale survey of resource-poor smallholder cotton farmers in South Africa over three years conclusively show that adopters of Bt cotton have benefited in terms of higher yields, lower pesticide use, less labour for pesticide application and substantially higher gross margins per hectare. These benefits were clearly related to the technology, and not to preferential adoption by farmers who were already highly efficient. The smallest producers are shown to have benefited from adoption of the Bt variety as much as, if not more than, larger producers. Moreover, evidence from hospital records suggests a link between declining pesticide poisonings and adoption of the Bt variety.

The economic impact of genetically modified cotton on South African smallholders: Yield, profit and health effects

Results of a large-scale survey of resource-poor smallholder cotton farmers in South Africa over three years conclusively show that adopters of Bt cotton have benefited in terms of higher yields, lower pesticide use, less labour for pesticide application and substantially higher gross margins per hectare. These benefits were clearly related to the technology, and not to preferential adoption by farmers who were already highly efficient. The smallest producers are shown to have benefited from adoption of the Bt variety as much as, if not more than, larger producers. Moreover, evidence from hospital records suggests a link between declining pesticide poisonings and adoption of the Bt variety.

Effects of host plant drought stress on the performance of the bird cherry-oat aphid, Rhopalosiphum padi (L.): a mechanistic analysis

1. The growth (increase in height and leaf number) of four grass species was reduced by a -0.5 MPa drought stress, but the performance of an associated herbivore, Rhopalosiphum padi (L.), was not affected consistently. The intrinsic rate of increase of R. padi was reduced by drought stress on three grass species, including Dactylis glomerata (L.), but was unaffected on Arrhenatherum elatius (L.). Therefore, there is no general relationship in the effect of plant drought on an insect herbivore, even among closely related host plant species. 2. Drought stress increased the quality of plant phloem sap, as indicated by increased sieve element osmotic pressure and essential amino acid concentrations. Thus, diet quality could not account for the reduced performance of R. padi under drought stress. The concentration of essential amino acids in the phloem of well-watered A. elatius was, however, lower than that of well-watered D. glomerata, correlating with the decreased performance of aphids on well-watered A. elatius. 3. There were no differences in aphid feeding duration between watering treatments or plant species but sap ingestion rates were reduced significantly under drought stress. 4. Using the measure of dietary amino acid concentrations and the estimate of sap ingestion, the essential amino acid flux through aphids was calculated. Compared with the flux through aphids feeding on well-watered D. glomerata, there was a reduction in aphids feeding on drought-stressed D. glomerata and drought-stressed A. elatius due to lower sap ingestion rates. The flux through aphids on well-watered A. elatius was also reduced due to low phloem essential amino acid concentrations. Thus, the performance of an aphid is correlated with the availability and accessibility of essential amino acids.

Stopping clinical trials because of treatment ineffectiveness: a comparison of a futility design with a method of stochastic curtailment

This paper introduces a simple futility design that allows a comparative clinical trial to be stopped due to lack of effect at any of a series of planned interim analyses. Stopping due to apparent benefit is not permitted. The design is for use when any positive claim should be based on the maximum sample size, for example to allow subgroup analyses or the evaluation of safety or secondary efficacy responses. A final frequentist analysis can be performed that is valid for the type of design employed. Here the design is described and its properties are presented. Its advantages and disadvantages relative to the use of stochastic curtailment are discussed. Copyright (C) 2003 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

Hespellia stercorisuis gen. nov., sp nov and Hespellia porcina sp nov., isolated from swine manure storage pits

Four Gram-positive-staining, strictly anaerobic, non-spore-forming, rod-shaped organisms were isolated from a pig manure storage pit. Comparative 16S rRNA gene sequence analysis revealed that the isolates belonged to two related but distinct groups. Sequence analysis showed that the two groups of isolates were highly related to each other (approx. 97% 16S rRNA gene sequence similarity), forming a distinct cluster within the Clostridium coccoides suprageneric rDNA grouping. Biochemical and physiological studies confirmed the division of the isolates into two related, albeit distinct, groups. Based on both phenotypic and phylogenetic evidence, it is proposed that the unidentified rod-shaped isolates from pig manure should be classified in a novel genus, Hespellia gen. nov., as Hespellia stercorisuis sp. nov. and Hespellia porcina sp. nov. The type species of the novel genus is H. stercorisuis (type strain, PC18(T) = NRRL B-23456(T) = CCUG 46279(T) = ATCC BAA-677(T)) and the type strain of H. porcina is PC80(T) (= NRRL B-23458(T) = ATCC BAA-674(T)).

Eye-movements aid the control of locomotion

Eye-movements have long been considered a problem when trying to understand the visual control of locomotion. They transform the retinal image from a simple expanding pattern of moving texture elements (pure optic flow), into a complex combination of translation and rotation components (retinal flow). In this article we investigate whether there are measurable advantages to having an active free gaze, over a static gaze or tracking gaze, when steering along a winding path. We also examine patterns of free gaze behavior to determine preferred gaze strategies during active locomotion. Participants were asked to steer along a computer-simulated textured roadway with free gaze, fixed gaze, or gaze tracking the center of the roadway. Deviation of position from the center of the road was recorded along with their point of gaze. It was found that visually tracking the middle of the road produced smaller steering errors than for fixed gaze. Participants performed best at the steering task when allowed to sample naturally from the road ahead with free gaze. There was some variation in the gaze strategies used, but sampling was predominantly of areas proximal to the center of the road. These results diverge from traditional models of flow analysis.

Surface structure of thin asymmetric PS-b-PMMA diblock copolymers investigated by atomic force microscopy

Asymmetric poly(styrene-b-methyl methacrylate) (PS-b-PMMA) diblock copolymers of molecular weight M-n = 29,700g mol(-1) (M-PS = 9300 g mol(-1) M-PMMA = 20,100 g mol(-1), PD = 1.15, chi(PS) = 0.323, chi(PMMA) = 0.677) and M-n = 63,900 g mol(-1) (M-PS = 50,500 g mol(-1), M-PMMA = 13,400 g mol(-1), PD = 1.18, chi(PS) = 0.790, chi(PMMA) = 0.210) were prepared via reversible addition-fragmentation chain transfer (RAFT) polymerization. Atomic force microscopy (AFM) was used to investigate the surface structure of thin films, prepared by spin-coating the diblock copolymers on a silicon substrate. We show that the nanostructure of the diblock copolymer depends on the molecular weight and volume fraction of the diblock copolymers. We observed a perpendicular lamellar structure for the high molar mass sample and a hexagonal-packed cylindrical patterning for the lower molar mass one. Small-angle X-ray scattering investigation of these samples without annealing did not reveal any ordered structure. Annealing of PS-b-PMMA samples at 160 degrees C for 24 h led to a change in surface structure.

Synthesis, properties, and X-ray crystal and molecular structures of homoleptic alkenyls of tin and chromium

Reaction of Li(CPhCMe2) with SnCl4 or CrCl3·3thf (thf = tetrahydrofuran) affords the isoleptic compounds Sn(CPhCMe2)4 or [Cr(CPhCMe2)4] respectively. The mode of formation and chemical properties are reported for the chromium species, and the structures of the new compounds, both of which have been determined by single-crystal X-ray analysis, are described.

The formation of ice in a long-lived supercooled layer cloud

This article focuses on the characteristics of persistent thin single-layer mixed-phase clouds. We seek to answer two important questions: (i) how does ice continually nucleate and precipitate from these clouds, without the available ice nuclei becoming depleted? (ii) how do the supercooled liquid droplets persist in spite of the net flux of water vapour to the growing ice crystals? These questions are answered quantitatively using in situ and radar observations of a long-lived mixed-phase cloud layer over the Chilbolton Observatory. Doppler radar measurements show that the top 500 m of cloud (the top 250 m of which is mixed-phase, with ice virga beneath) is turbulent and well-mixed, and the liquid water content is adiabatic. This well-mixed layer is bounded above and below by stable layers. This inhibits entrainment of fresh ice nuclei into the cloud layer, yet our in situ and radar observations show that a steady flux of ≈100 m−2s−1 ice crystals fell from the cloud over the course of ∼1 day. Comparing this flux to the concentration of conventional ice nuclei expected to be present within the well-mixed layer, we find that these nuclei would be depleted within less than 1 h. We therefore argue that nucleation in these persistent supercooled clouds is strongly time-dependent in nature, with droplets freezing slowly over many hours, significantly longer than the few seconds residence time of an ice nucleus counter. Once nucleated, the ice crystals are observed to grow primarily by vapour deposition, because of the low liquid water path (21 g m−2) yet vapour-rich environment. Evidence for this comes from high differential reflectivity in the radar observations, and in situ imaging of the crystals. The flux of vapour from liquid to ice is quantified from in situ measurements, and we show that this modest flux (3.3 g m−2h−1) can be readily offset by slow radiative cooling of the layer to space.

Information-based data selection for ensemble data assimilation

Ensemble-based data assimilation is rapidly proving itself as a computationally-efficient and skilful assimilation method for numerical weather prediction, which can provide a viable alternative to more established variational assimilation techniques. However, a fundamental shortcoming of ensemble techniques is that the resulting analysis increments can only span a limited subspace of the state space, whose dimension is less than the ensemble size. This limits the amount of observational information that can effectively constrain the analysis. In this paper, a data selection strategy that aims to assimilate only the observational components that matter most and that can be used with both stochastic and deterministic ensemble filters is presented. This avoids unnecessary computations, reduces round-off errors and minimizes the risk of importing observation bias in the analysis. When an ensemble-based assimilation technique is used to assimilate high-density observations, the data-selection procedure allows the use of larger localization domains that may lead to a more balanced analysis. Results from the use of this data selection technique with a two-dimensional linear and a nonlinear advection model using both in situ and remote sounding observations are discussed.

On increasing global temperatures: 75 years after Callendar

In 1938, Guy Stewart Callendar was the first to demonstrate that the Earth’s land surface was warming. Callendar also suggested that the production of carbon dioxide by the combustion of fossil fuels was responsible for much of this modern change in climate. This short note marks the 75th anniversary of Callendar’s landmark study and demonstrates that his global land temperature estimates agree remarkably well with more recent analyses.