Bayesian estimation and selection of nonlinear vector error correction models: The case of the sugar-ethanol-oil nexus in Brazil

Nonlinear adjustment toward long-run price equilibrium relationships in the sugar-ethanol-oil nexus in Brazil is examined. We develop generalized bivariate error correction models that allow for cointegration between sugar, ethanol, and oil prices, where dynamic adjustments are potentially nonlinear functions of the disequilibrium errors. A range of models are estimated using Bayesian Monte Carlo Markov Chain algorithms and compared using Bayesian model selection methods. The results suggest that the long-run drivers of Brazilian sugar prices are oil prices and that there are nonlinearities in the adjustment processes of sugar and ethanol prices to oil price but linear adjustment between ethanol and sugar prices.

Chemical composition and fermentation characteristics of grain and different parts of the stover from maize land races harvested at different growing periods in two zones of central Mexico

The objective of this work was to determine the rumen fermentation characteristics of maize land races used as forage in central Mexico. In vitro gas production (ml per 200 mg dry matter (DM)) incubations were carried out, and cumulative gas volumes were fitted to the Krishnamoorthy et al. (1991) model. The trial used a split-plot design with cultivation practices associated with maize colour (COL) as the main plot with three levels: white, yellow and black maize; growing periods (PER) were the split plots where PER1, PER2 and PER3 represented the first, second and third periods, respectively and two contrasting zones (Z1 = valley and Z2 = mountain) were used as blocking factors. The principal effects observed were associated with the maturity of the plants and potential gas production increased (P < 0.05) in stems (PER 1 = 51.8, PER2 = 56.3, PER3 = 58.4 ml per 200 mg DM) and in whole plant (PER 1 = 60.9, PER2 = 60.8, PER3= 70.9 ml per 200 mg DM). An inverse effect was observed with fermentation rates in leaves (P < 0.01) with 0.061, 0.053 and 0.0509 (per h) and in whole plant (P < 0.05) with 0.068, 0.057, 0.050 (per h) in PER1, PER2 and PER3 respectively. The digestibility of the neutral-detergent fibre (NDF) decreased with maturity especially in leaves (P < 0.05) with values of 0.71, 0.67 and 0.66 g/kg; in rachis (P < 0.01) 0.75, 0.72, and 0.65 in PER1, PER2 and PER3 respectively. The NDF content in leaves in leaves (668, 705 and 713 g/kg DM for PER1, PER2 and PER3, respectively), stems (580, 594 and 644 g/kg DM) and, husk (663, 774 and, 808 g/kg DM) increased (P < 0.05) with increasing plant maturity, rachis were significantly different between periods (P < 0.01). The structure with-the best nutritive characteristics was the husk, because it had the lowest fibre contents, especially in acid-detergent lignin, with values of 22.6, 28.6 and 37.6 g/kg DM in PER1, PER2 and PER3, respectively.

Neonatal mortality in puppies due to bacteremia by Streptococcus dysgalactiae subsp dysgalactiae

We report a case of bacteremia in puppies caused by Streptococcus dysgalactiae subsp. dysgalactiae. Identification was achieved by phenotypic and molecular genetic methods. This is the first report of the recovery of S. dysgalactiae subsp. dysgalactiae from dogs.

Artichoke leaf extract (Cynara scolymus) reduces plasma cholesterol in otherwise healthy hypercholesterolemic adults: A randomized, double blind placebo controlled trial

Cardiovascular diseases are the chief causes of death in the UK, and are associated with high circulating levels of total cholesterol in the plasma. Artichoke leaf extracts (ALEs) have been reported to reduce plasma lipids levels, including total cholesterol, although high quality data is lacking. The objective of this trial was to assess the effect of ALE on plasma lipid levels and general well-being in otherwise healthy adults with mild to moderate hypercholesterolemia. 131 adults were screened for total plasma cholesterol in the range 6.0-8.0 mmol/l, with 75 suitable volunteers randomised onto the trial. Volunteers consumed 1280 mg of a standardised ALE, or matched placebo, daily for 12 weeks. Plasma total cholesterol decreased in the treatment group by an average of 4.2% (from 7.16 (SD 0.62) mmol/l to 6.86 (SD 0.68) mmol/l) and increased in the control group by an average of 1.9% (6.90 (SD 0.49) mmol/l to 7.03 (0.61) mmol/l), the difference between groups being statistically significant (p = 0.025). No significant differences between groups were observed for LDL cholesterol, HDL cholesterol or triglyceride levels. General well-being improved significantly in both the treatment (11%) and control groups (9%) with no significant differences between groups. In conclusion, ALE consumption resulted in a modest but favourable statistically significant difference in total cholesterol after 12 weeks. In comparison with a previous trial, it is suggested that the apparent positive health status of the study population may have contributed to the modesty of the observed response. (C) 2008 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Interpolymer complexes of hydroxy-propylmethylcellulose with polycarboxylic acids in aqueous solutions

The interactions between hydroxypropylmethylcellulose (HPMC) and poly(acrylic acid) (PAA) as well as poly(methacrylic acid) (PMMA) resulting in formation of hydrophobic interpolymer complexes (IPC) via hydrogen bonding have been studied in aqueous solutions in acidic medium. The formation of IPC of two different compositions (2:1 and 4:1) has been detected for complexes of PAA and HPMC. The critical pH values for complexation of HPMC with PAA and PMAA were determined by the turbidimetric method. It was found that PAA shows the lower complexation ability compared to PMAA due to the more hydrophobic nature of the latter polyacid. The temperature-induced phase separation in HPMC-PAA solution mixtures depends greatly on the components ratio and PAA molecular weight. The complexation ability of hydroxypropylmethylcellulose with respect to poly(acrylic acid) was found to be similar to the complexation ability of methylcellulose, lower than that of hydroxypropylcellulose and higher than that of hydroxyethylcellulose. (c) 2006 Society of Chemical Industry.

A practical low cost architecture for a MB-OFDM equalizer (ECMA-368)

The relative fast processing speed requirements in Wireless Personal Area Network (WPAN) consumer based products are often in conflict with their low power and cost requirements. In order to solve this conflict the efficiency and cost effectiveness of these products and the underlying functional modules become paramount. This paper presents a low-cost, simple, yet high performance solution for the receiver Channel Estimator and Equalizer for the Mutiband OFDM (MB-OFDM) system, particularly directed to the WiMedia Consortium Physical Later (ECMA-368) consumer implementation for Wireless-USB and Fast Bluetooth. In this paper, the receiver fixed point performance is measured and the results indicate excellent performance compared to the current literature(1).

Influence of elevated CO2 on interspecific interactions at higher trophic levels

We report the results of a study investigating the influence of elevated CO2 on species interactions across three trophic levels: a plant (Brassica oleracea), two aphid herbivores (the generalist Myzus persicae and the specialist Brevicoryne brassicae), and two natural enemies (the coccinellid Hippodamia convergens (ladybird) and the parasitoid wasp Diaeretiella rapae). Brassica oleracea plants reared under elevated CO2 conditions (650 ppmv vs. 350 ppmv) were larger and had decreased water and nitrogen content. Brevicoryne brassicae reared on plants grown in elevated CO2 were larger and accumulated more fat, while there was no change in M. persicae traits. Fecundity of individual aphids appeared to be increased when reared on plants grown in elevated CO2. However, these differences were generally lost when aphids were reared in colonies, suggesting that such changes in plant quality will have subtile effects on aphid intraspecific interactions. Nevertheless, CO2 treatment did influence aphid distribution on plants, with significantly fewer M. persicae found on the shoots, and B. brassicae was only found on senescing leaves, when colonies were reared on plants grown in elevated CO2. We reared B. brassicae and M. persicae in competition on plants grown at both the CO2 concentration treatments. We found a significantly lower ratio of M. persicae: B. brassicae on plants grown under elevated CO2 conditions, strongly suggesting that increasing CO2 concentrations can alter the outcome of competition among insect herbivores. This was also reflected in the distribution of the aphids on the plants. While the CO2 treatment did not influence where B. brassicae were found, fewer M. persicae were present on senescing leaves under elevated CO2 conditions. Changes in plant quality resulting from the CO2 treatments did not appear to alter aphid quality as prey species, as the number consumed by the ladybird H. convergens, and the number parasitised by the parasitoid wasp D. rapae, did not change. To our knowledge, this study provides the first empirical evidence that changes in host plant quality mediated by increasing levels of CO2 can alter the outcome of interspecific competition among insect herbivores.

Implementation of a new urban energy budget scheme in the MetUM. Part I: Description and idealized simulations

This paper describes the formulation of a new urban scheme, MORUSES (Met Office–Reading Urban Surface Exchange Scheme) for use in the Met Office Unified Model. The implementation of the new scheme ensures that (1) the new scheme offers more flexibility in the parametrization of the building properties, and hence provides a more realistic representation of the fluxes; (2) the bulk outputs are in satisfactory agreement with previous observational studies; and (3) the impact of the new scheme on the energy balance fluxes is similar to the impact of the current urban scheme when set up to mimic it. As well as having a better physical basis, MORUSES also gains in flexibility in applications and adaptations to different urban materials as well as urban planning. The new scheme represents the urban area as a composition of two tiles, a canyon and a roof, using a simple 2D geometry. Sensitivity analysis to canyon geometry and thickness of the roof canopy emphasizes the gain in flexibility captured by the new scheme. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society and Crown Copyright

The nature of Arctic polar vortices in chemistry-climate models

The structure of the Arctic stratospheric polar vortex in three chemistry–climate models (CCMs) taken from the CCMVal-2 intercomparison is examined using zonal mean and geometric-based methods. The geometric methods are employed by taking 2D moments of potential vorticity fields that are representative of the polar vortices in each of the models. This allows the vortex area, centroid location and ellipticity to be determined, as well as a measure of vortex filamentation. The first part of the study uses these diagnostics to examine how well the mean state, variability and extreme variability of the polar vortices are represented in CCMs compared to ERA-40 reanalysis data, and in particular for the UMUKCA-METO, NIWA-SOCOL and CCSR/NIES models. The second part of the study assesses how the vortices are predicted to change in terms of the frequency of sudden stratospheric warmings and their general structure over the period 1960–2100. In general, it is found that the vortices are climatologically too far poleward in the CCMs and produce too few large-scale filamentation events. Only a small increase is observed in the frequency of sudden stratospheric warming events from the mean of the CCMVal-2 models, but the distribution of extreme variability throughout the winter period is shown to change towards the end of the twentyfirst century.

L1-regularisation for ill-posed problems in variational data assimilation

We consider four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4DVar) and show that it can be interpreted as Tikhonov or L2-regularisation, a widely used method for solving ill-posed inverse problems. It is known from image restoration and geophysical problems that an alternative regularisation, namely L1-norm regularisation, recovers sharp edges better than L2-norm regularisation. We apply this idea to 4DVar for problems where shocks and model error are present and give two examples which show that L1-norm regularisation performs much better than the standard L2-norm regularisation in 4DVar.

The impact of North Atlantic sea surface temperature errors on the simulation of North Atlantic European region climate

Current state-of-the-art climate models fail to capture accurately the path of the Gulf Stream and North Atlantic Current. This leads to a warm bias near the North American coast, where the modelled Gulf Stream separates from the coast further north, and a cold anomaly to the east of the Grand Banks of Newfoundland, where the North Atlantic Current remains too zonal in this region. Using an atmosphere-only model forced with the sea surface temperature (SST) biases in the North Atlantic, we consider the impact they have on the mean state and the variability in the North Atlantic European region in winter. Our results show that the SST errors produce a mean sea-level pressure response that is similar in magnitude and pattern to the atmospheric circulation errors in the coupled climate model. The work also suggests that errors in the coupled model storm tracks and North Atlantic Oscillation, compared to reanalysis data, can also be explained partly by these SST errors. Our results suggest that both the error in the Gulf Stream separation location and the path of the North Atlantic Current around the Grand Banks play important roles in affecting the atmospheric circulation. Reducing these coupled model errors could improve significantly the representation of the large-scale atmospheric circulation of the North Atlantic and European region.

Breakdown of hydrostatic balance at convective scales in the forecast errors in the Met Office Unified Model

For data assimilation in numerical weather prediction, the initial forecast-error covariance matrix Pf is required. For variational assimilation it is particularly important to prescribe an accurate initial matrix Pf, since Pf is either static (in the 3D-Var case) or constant at the beginning of each assimilation window (in the 4D-Var case). At large scales the atmospheric flow is well approximated by hydrostatic balance and this balance is strongly enforced in the initial matrix Pf used in operational variational assimilation systems such as that of the Met Office. However, at convective scales this balance does not necessarily hold any more. Here we examine the extent to which hydrostatic balance is valid in the vertical forecast-error covariances for high-resolution models in order to determine whether there is a need to relax this balance constraint in convective-scale data assimilation. We use the Met Office Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS) and a 1.5 km resolution version of the Unified Model for a case study characterized by the presence of convective activity. An ensemble of high-resolution forecasts valid up to three hours after the onset of convection is produced. We show that at 1.5 km resolution hydrostatic balance does not hold for forecast errors in regions of convection. This indicates that in the presence of convection hydrostatic balance should not be enforced in the covariance matrix used for variational data assimilation at this scale. The results show the need to investigate covariance models that may be better suited for convective-scale data assimilation. Finally, we give a measure of the balance present in the forecast perturbations as a function of the horizontal scale (from 3–90 km) using a set of diagnostics. Copyright © 2012 Royal Meteorological Society and British Crown Copyright, the Met Office

Numerical study of a M-cycle cross-flow heat exchanger for indirect evaporative cooling

In this paper, numerical analyses of the thermal performance of an indirect evaporative air cooler incorporating a M-cycle cross-flow heat exchanger has been carried out. The numerical model was established from solving the coupled governing equations for heat and mass transfer between the product and working air, using the finite-element method. The model was developed using the EES (Engineering Equation Solver) environment and validated by published experimental data. Correlation between the cooling (wet-bulb) effectiveness, system COP and a number of air flow/exchanger parameters was developed. It is found that lower channel air velocity, lower inlet air relative humidity, and higher working-to-product air ratio yielded higher cooling effectiveness. The recommended average air velocities in dry and wet channels should not be greater than 1.77 m/s and 0.7 m/s, respectively. The optimum flow ratio of working-to-product air for this cooler is 50%. The channel geometric sizes, i.e. channel length and height, also impose significant impact to system performance. Longer channel length and smaller channel height contribute to increase of the system cooling effectiveness but lead to reduced system COP. The recommend channel height is 4 mm and the dimensionless channel length, i.e., ratio of the channel length to height, should be in the range 100 to 300. Numerical study results indicated that this new type of M-cycle heat and mass exchanger can achieve 16.7% higher cooling effectiveness compared with the conventional cross-flow heat and mass exchanger for the indirect evaporative cooler. The model of this kind is new and not yet reported in literatures. The results of the study help with design and performance analyses of such a new type of indirect evaporative air cooler, and in further, help increasing market rating of the technology within building air conditioning sector, which is currently dominated by the conventional compression refrigeration technology.