Moist singular vectors and the predictability of some high impact European cyclones

The ECMWF full-physics and dry singular vector (SV) packages, using a dry energy norm and a 1-day optimization time, are applied to four high impact European cyclones of recent years that were almost universally badly forecast in the short range. It is shown that these full-physics SVs are much more relevant to severe cyclonic development than those based on dry dynamics plus boundary layer alone. The crucial extra ingredient is the representation of large-scale latent heat release. The severe winter storms all have a long, nearly straight region of high baroclinicity stretching across the Atlantic towards Europe, with a tongue of very high moisture content on its equatorward flank. In each case some of the final-time top SV structures pick out the region of the actual storm. The initial structures were generally located in the mid- to low troposphere. Forecasts based on initial conditions perturbed by moist SVs with opposite signs and various amplitudes show the range of possible 1-day outcomes for reasonable magnitudes of forecast error. In each case one of the perturbation structures gave a forecast very much closer to the actual storm than the control forecast. Deductions are made about the predictability of high-impact extratropical cyclone events. Implications are drawn for the short-range forecast problem and suggestions made for one practicable way to approach short-range ensemble forecasting. Copyright © 2005 Royal Meteorological Society.

Influence of foliar diseases and their control by fungicides on grain yield and quality in wheat

Twenty-eight field experiments on sandy-loam soils in the UK (1982-2003) are reviewed by relating the extension of the green area duration of the flag leaf (GLADF) by fungicides to effects on yield and quality of winter wheat. Over all experiments mean grain yield = 8.85t ha(-1) at 85% DM. With regards quality, mean values were: thousand grain weight (TGW) = 44.5 g; specific weight (SWT) = 76.9 kg hl(-1); crude protein concentration (CP (N x 5.7)) = 12.5 % DM; Hagberg falling number (HFN) = 285 s; and sodium dodecyl sulphate (SDS)-sedimentation volume = 69ml. For each day (d) that fungicides increased GLADF there were associated average increases in yield (0.144 1 ha(-1) d(-1), se 0.0049, df = 333), TGW (0.56 gd(-1), se = 0.017) and SWT (0.22 kg hl(-1) d(-1), se 0.011). Some curvature was evident in all these relationships. When GLADF was delayed beyond 700 degrees Cd after anthesis, as was possible in cool wet seasons, responses were curtailed, or less reliable. Despite this apparent terminal sink limitation, fungicide effects on sink size, eg endosperm cell numbers or maximum water mass per grain, were not prerequisites for large effects on grain yield, TGW or SWT. Fungicide effects on CP were variable. Although the average response of CP was negative (-0.029%DM/d; se = 0.00338), this depended on cultivar and disease controlled. Controlling biotrophs such as rusts, (Puccinia spp.) tended to increase CP, whereas controlling a more necrotrophic pathogen (Septoria tritici) usually reducedCP. Irrespective of pathogen controlled, delaying senescence of the flag leaf was associated with increased nitrogen yields in the grain (averaging 2.24 kg N ha-1 d(-1), se = 0.0848) due to both increased N uptake into the above ground crop, and also more efficient remobilisation of N from leaf laminas. When sulphur availability appeared to be adequate, fungicide x cultivar interactions were similar on S as for CP, although N:S ratios tended to decline (i.e. improve for bread making) when S. tritici was controlled. On average, SDS-sedimentation volume declined (-0. 18 ml/d, se = 0.027) with increased GLADF, broadly commensurate with the average effect on CP. Hagberg falling number decreased as fungicide increased GLADF (-2.73 s/d, se = 0.178), indicating an increase in alpha-amylase activity.

A framework for revitalisation of rural education and training systems in sub-Saharan Africa: Strengthening the human resource base for food security and sustainable livelihoods

Recent studies of the current state of rural education and training (RET) systems in sub-Saharan Africa have assessed their ability to provide for the learning needs essential for more knowledgeable and productive small-scale rural households. These are most necessary if the endemic causes of rural poverty (poor nutrition, lack of sustainable livelihoods, etc.) are to be overcome. A brief historical background and analysis of the major current constraints to improvement in the sector are discussed. Paramount among those factors leading to its present 'malaise' is the lack of a whole-systems perspective and the absence of any coherent policy framework in most countries. There is evidence of some recent innovations, both in the public sector and through the work of non-governmental organisations (NGOs), civil society organisations (CSOs) and other private bodies. These provide hope of a new sense of direction that could lead towards meaningful 'revitalisation' of the sector. A suggested framework offers 10 key steps which, it is argued, could largely be achieved with modest internal resources and very little external support, provided that the necessary leadership and managerial capacities are in place. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ecology of sponge assemblages (Porifera) in the Wakatobi region, south-east Sulawesi, Indonesia: richness and abundance

The influence of sedimentation, depth and substratum angle on sponge assemblages in the Wakatobi region, south-eastern Sulawesi, Indonesia was considered. Sponge assemblages were sampled from two reef localities. The first reef (Sampela) was highly impacted by high sedimentation rates with fine sediment particles that settle slowly, while the second (Hoga) experienced only fast settling coarse sediment with lower overall sedimentation rates. Sponge assemblages were sampled (area occupied and numbers) on the reef fiat (0 m) and at 5 (reef crest), 10 and 15 m (15 m at Hoga only). Some significant (P < 0.001) differences were observed in the area occupied and the number of sponge patches between surface angles and sites. Significantly lower (t > 4.61, df = 9, P < 0.001) sponge numbers, percentage cover and richness were associated with the reef flat at both sites compared with all other depths at each site, with the exception of abundance of sponges on the reef flat at Sampela, which was much greater than at any other depth sampled. Species richness increased with depth at both sites but differences between surface angles were only recorded at Sampela, with higher species richness being found on vertical, inclined and horizontal surfaces respectively A total of 100 sponge species (total area sampled 52.5 m(2)) was reported from the two sites, with 58 species found at Sampela and 71 species at Hoga (41% of species shared). Multi-dimensional scaling (MDS) indicated differences in assemblage structure between sites and most depth intervals, but not substratum angles. A number of biological (e.g. competition and predation) and physical (e.g. sedimentation and aerial exposure) factors were considered to control sponge abundance and richness. Unexpectedly a significant (F-1,F-169 = 148.98, P < 0.001) positive linear relationship was found between sponge density and area occupied. In areas of high sponge coverage, the number of patches was also high, possibly due to fragmentation of large sponges produced as a result of predation and physical disturbance. The MDS results were also the same whether sponge numbers or percentage cover estimates were used, suggesting that although these different approaches yield different sorts of information, the same assemblage structure can be identified.

A phylogenetic mixture model for detecting pattern-heterogeneity in gene sequence or character-state data

We describe a general likelihood-based 'mixture model' for inferring phylogenetic trees from gene-sequence or other character-state data. The model accommodates cases in which different sites in the alignment evolve in qualitatively distinct ways, but does not require prior knowledge of these patterns or partitioning of the data. We call this qualitative variability in the pattern of evolution across sites "pattern-heterogeneity" to distinguish it from both a homogenous process of evolution and from one characterized principally by differences in rates of evolution. We present studies to show that the model correctly retrieves the signals of pattern-heterogeneity from simulated gene-sequence data, and we apply the method to protein-coding genes and to a ribosomal 12S data set. The mixture model outperforms conventional partitioning in both these data sets. We implement the mixture model such that it can simultaneously detect rate- and pattern-heterogeneity. The model simplifies to a homogeneous model or a rate- variability model as special cases, and therefore always performs at least as well as these two approaches, and often considerably improves upon them. We make the model available within a Bayesian Markov-chain Monte Carlo framework for phylogenetic inference, as an easy-to-use computer program.

Comparative characterisation by atomic force microscopy and ellipsometry of soft and solid thin films

Ellipsometry and atomic force microscopy (AFM) were used to study the film thickness and the surface roughness of both 'soft' and solid thin films. 'Soft' polymer thin films of polystyrene and poly(styrene-ethylene/butylene-styrene) block copolymer were prepared by spin-coating onto planar silicon wafers. Ellipsometric parameters were fitted by the Cauchy approach using a two-layer model with planar boundaries between the layers. The smooth surfaces of the prepared polymer films were confirmed by AFM. There is good agreement between AFM and ellipsometry in the 80-130 nm thickness range. Semiconductor surfaces (Si) obtained by anisotropic chemical etching were investigated as an example of a randomly rough surface. To define roughness parameters by ellipsometry, the top rough layers were treated as thin films according to the Bruggeman effective medium approximation (BEMA). Surface roughness values measured by AFM and ellipsometry show the same tendency of increasing roughness with increased etching time, although AFM results depend on the used window size. The combined use of both methods appears to offer the most comprehensive route to quantitative surface roughness characterisation of solid films. Copyright (c) 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Solid supported micellar analysis: some syntheses and characterisations

A synthetic method for chemically tethering organic based surfactant molecules and fluorous surfactant molecules onto a high surface and pore volume silica has been developed. It is shown that heterogenisation of a simple water-soluble ions (i.e. molybdate ion and Co2+) can be accomplished onto these composite materials. They display an excellent activity and selectivity for oxidation of organic molecules in bulk organic solvent or in supercritical CO2. Characterisations indicate that catalysis occurs within the surface supported surfactant assemblies (chemically tethered reversed micelles) in the porous silica structure. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Characterisation of cyclin D1 down-regulation in coronavirus infected cells

The positive strand RNA coronavirus, infectious bronchitis virus (IBV), induces a G2/M phase arrest and reduction in the G1 and G1/S phase transition regulator cyclin D1. Quantitative real-time RT-PCR and Western blot analysis demonstrated that cyclin D1 was reduced post-transcriptionally within infected cells independently of the cell-cycle stage at the time of infection. Confocal microscopy revealed that cyclin D1 decreased in IBV-infected cells as infection progressed and inhibition studies indicated that a population of cyclin D1 could be targeted for degradation by a virus mediated pathway. In contrast to the SARS-coronavirus, IBV nucleocapsid protein did not interact with cyclin D1. (c) 2007 Federation of European Biochemical Societies. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cost-effectiveness of a preventive counseling and support package for postnatal depression

Objectives: This study reports the cost-effectiveness of a preventive intervention, consisting of counseling and specific support for the mother-infant relationship, targeted at women at high risk of developing postnatal depression. Methods: A prospective economic evaluation was conducted alongside a pragmatic randomized controlled trial in which women considered at high risk of developing postnatal depression were allocated randomly to the preventive intervention (n = 74) or to routine primary care (n = 77). The primary outcome measure was the duration of postnatal depression experienced during the first 18 months postpartum. Data on health and social care use by women and their infants up to 18 months postpartum were collected, using a combination of prospective diaries and face-to-face interviews, and then were combined with unit costs ( pound, year 2000 prices) to obtain a net cost per mother-infant dyad. The nonparametric bootstrap method was used to present cost-effectiveness acceptability curves and net benefit statistics at alternative willingness to pay thresholds held by decision makers for preventing 1 month of postnatal depression. Results: Women in the preventive intervention group were depressed for an average of 2.21 months (9.57 weeks) during the study period, whereas women in the routine primary care group were depressed for an average of 2.70 months (11.71 weeks). The mean health and social care costs were estimated at 2,396.9 pound per mother-infant dyad in the preventive intervention group and 2,277.5 pound per mother-infant dyad in the routine primary care group, providing a mean cost difference of 119.5 pound (bootstrap 95 percent confidence interval [Cl], -535.4, 784.9). At a willingness to pay threshold of 1,000 pound per month of postnatal depression avoided, the probability that the preventive intervention is cost-effective is .71 and the mean net benefit is 383.4 pound (bootstrap 95 percent Cl, -863.3- pound 1,581.5) pound. Conclusions: The preventive intervention is likely to be cost-effective even at relatively low willingness to pay thresholds for preventing 1 month of postnatal depression during the first 18 months postpartum. Given the negative impact of postnatal depression on later child development, further research is required that investigates the longer-term cost-effectiveness of the preventive intervention in high risk women.

Developing collaborative social software

The Internet has an increasing role in facilitating communication between people and groups of people. As access to the Internet and World Wide Web is widely available, collaborative services enabled over the Internet are also burgeoning. In this paper, we present the current issues and our techniques for developing collaborative social software. We discuss online communities in the context of social collaborative systems. We then describe our approach to the development of supporting software for online communities and collaboration.

Granulosal and thecal expression of bone morphogenetic protein- and activin-binding protein mRNA transcripts during bovine follicle development and factors modulating their expression in vitro

Evidence supports local roles for TGFβ superfamily members including activins and bone morphogenetic proteins (BMP) in follicle development. Access of these ligands to signaling receptors is likely modulated by extracellular binding proteins (BP). In this study we compared expression of four BPs (chordin, gremlin, noggin, follistatin) in granulosal (GC) and theca interna (TC) compartments of developing bovine antral follicles (1-18mm). Effects of FSH and IGF on BMP and BP expression by cultured GC, and effects of LH and BMPs on BP expression by cultured TC were also examined. Follicular expression of all four BP transcripts was higher in GC than TC compartments (P<0.001) a finding confirmed by immunohistochemistry. Follicle category affected (P<0.01) gremlin and follistatin mRNA abundance, with a significant cell-type x follicle category interaction for chordin, follistatin and noggin. Noggin transcript abundance was lower (P<0.05) in GC of large 'E-active' than 'E-inactive' follicles while follistatin mRNA level was higher (P<0.01). FSH enhanced CYP19, FSHR, INHBA and follistatin by GC without affecting BMP or BMP-BP expression. IGF increased CYP19 and follistatin, reduced BMP4, noggin and gremlin but did not affect chordin or FSHR mRNA levels. LH increased TC androgen secretion but had no effect on BMP or BP expression. BMPs uniformly suppressed TC androgen production whilst increasing chordin, noggin, and gremlin mRNA levels up to 20-fold (P<0.01). These findings support the hypothesis that extracellular BP, mostly from GC, contribute to the regulation of intrafollicular BMP/activin signaling. Enhancement of thecal BP expression by BMP implies an autoregulatory feedback role to prevent excessive signaling.