The accuracy of Doppler radar wind retrievals using insects as targets

Insect returns from the UK's Doppler weather radars were collected in the summers of 2007 and 2008, to ascertain their usefulness in providing information about boundary layer winds. Such observations could be assimilated into numerical weather prediction models to improve forecasts of convective showers before precipitation begins. Significant numbers of insect returns were observed during daylight hours on a number of days through this period, when they were detected at up to 30 km range from the radars, and up to 2 km above sea level. The range of detectable insect returns was found to vary with time of year and temperature. There was also a very weak correlation with wind speed and direction. Use of a dual-polarized radar revealed that the insects did not orient themselves at random, but showed distinct evidence of common orientation on several days, sometimes at an angle to their direction of travel. Observation minus model background residuals of wind profiles showed greater bias and standard deviation than that of other wind measurement types, which may be due to the insects' headings/airspeeds and to imperfect data extraction. The method used here, similar to the Met Office's procedure for extracting precipitation returns, requires further development as clutter contamination remained one of the largest error contributors. Wind observations derived from the insect returns would then be useful for data assimilation applications.

Life cycle of the QBO-modulated 11-year solar cycle signals in the Northern Hemispheric winter

This paper provides some insights on the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) modulated 11-year solar cycle (11-yr SC) signals in Northern Hemisphere (NH) winter temperature and zonal wind. Daily ERA-40 Reanalysis and ECMWF Operational data for the period of 1958-2006 were used to examine the seasonal evolution of the QBO-solar cycle relationship at various pressure levels up to the stratopause. The results show that the solar signals in the NH winter extratropics are indeed QBO-phase dependent, moving poleward and downward as winter progresses with a faster descent rate under westerly QBO than under easterly QBO. In the stratosphere, the signals are highly significant in late January to early March and have a life span of 30-50 days. Under westerly QBO, the stratospheric solar signals clearly lead and connect to those in the troposphere in late March and early April where they have a life span of 10 days. As the structure changes considerably from the upper stratosphere to the lower troposphere, the exact month when the maximum solar signals occur depends largely on the altitude chosen. For the low-latitude stratosphere, our analysis supports a vertical double-peaked structure of positive signature of the 11-yr SC in temperature, and demonstrates that this structure is further modulated by the QBO. These solar signals have a longer life span (3-4 months) in comparison to those in the extratropics. The solar signals in the lower stratosphere are stronger in early winter but weaker in late winter, while the reverse holds in the upper stratosphere.

Do High-Frequency Eddies Contribute to Low-Frequency Teleconnection Tendencies?*

An isentropic potential vorticity (PV) budget analysis is employed to examine the role of synoptic transients, advection, and nonconservative processes as forcings for the evolution of the low-frequency PV anomalies locally and those associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Pacific–North American (PNA) pattern. Specifically, the rate of change of the low-frequency PV is expressed as a sum of tendencies due to divergence of eddy transport, advection by the low-frequency flow (hereafter referred to as advection), and the residual nonconservative processes. The balance between the variances and covariances of these terms is illustrated using a novel vector representation. It is shown that for most locations, as well as for the PNA pattern, the PV variability is dominantly driven by advection. The eddy forcing explains a small amount of the tendency variance. For the NAO, the role of synoptic eddy fluxes is found to be stronger, explaining on average 15% of the NAO tendency variance. Previous studies have not assessed quantitively how the various forcings balance the tendency. Thus, such studies may have overestimated the role of eddy fluxes for the evolution of teleconnections by examining, for example, composites and regressions that indicate maintenance, rather than evolution driven by the eddies. The authors confirm this contrasting view by showing that during persistent blocking (negative NAO) episodes the eddy driving is relatively stronger.

What do patients want to know? An empirical approach to explanation generation and validation

This article describes an empirical, user-centred approach to explanation design. It reports three studies that investigate what patients want to know when they have been prescribed medication. The question is asked in the context of the development of a drug prescription system called OPADE. The system is aimed primarily at improving the prescribing behaviour of physicians, but will also produce written explanations for indirect users such as patients. In the first study, a large number of people were presented with a scenario about a visit to the doctor, and were asked to list the questions that they would like to ask the doctor about the prescription. On the basis of the results of the study, a categorization of question types was developed in terms of how frequently particular questions were asked. In the second and third studies a number of different explanations were generated in accordance with this categorization, and a new sample of people were presented with another scenario and were asked to rate the explanations on a number of dimensions. The results showed significant differences between the different explanations. People preferred explanations that included items corresponding to frequently asked questions in study 1. For an explanation to be considered useful, it had to include information about side effects, what the medication does, and any lifestyle changes involved. The implications of the results of the three studies are discussed in terms of the development of OPADE's explanation facility.

Fourier transform infrared spectra of H2CS and D2CS

Infrared spectra of thoformaldehyde, H2CS and D2CS, were observed in the gas phase at a resolution of better than 0.1 cm−1 from 4000 to 400 cm−1 using a Nicolet FTIR system. Vibrational band origins and rotational constants were determined for ν2, ν3, ν4, and ν6 of H2CS and for ν1, ν2, ν3, ν4, and ν6 of D2CS. The ν3, ν4, and ν6 bands of H2CS were analyzed as a set of three Coriolis interacting bands, and three Coriolis constants were determined; similarly the ν4 and ν6 bands of D2CS were analyzed as a pair of interacting bands and one Coriolis constant was determined. A general harmonic force field was determined, without constraints, to fit the vibrational wavenumbers, Coriolis constants, and centrifugal distortion constants. A zero-point (rz) structure was determined from the ground-state rotational constants, and the equilibrium (re) bond lengths were estimated.

Impact on CVD risk of modifying milk fat to decrease intake of SFA and increase intake of cis-MUFA

Despite the acknowledged benefits of reducing SFA intake few countries within the EU meet recognised targets. Milk and dairy products represent the single largest source of dietary SFA in most countries, yet epidemiological evidence indicates that milk has cardioprotective properties such that simply reducing consumption of dairy foods to meet SFA targets may not be a sound public health approach. The present paper explores the options for replacing some of the SFA in milk fat with cis-MUFA through alteration of the diet of the dairy cow, and the evidence that such changes can improve the indicators for CHD and CVD in general for the consumer. In addition, the outcome of such changes on risk factors for CHD and CVD at the population level is examined in the light of a modelling exercise involving data for eleven EU member states. Given the current and projected costs of health care, the results indicate that urgent consideration should be given to such a strategy.

Impact on CVD risk of modifying milk fat to decrease intake of SFA and increase intake of cis-MUFA

Despite the acknowledged benefits of reducing SFA intake few countries within the EU meet recognised targets. Milk and dairy products represent the single largest source of dietary SFA in most countries, yet epidemiological evidence indicates that milk has cardioprotective properties such that simply reducing consumption of dairy foods to meet SFA targets may not be a sound public health approach. The present paper explores the options for replacing some of the SFA in milk fat with cis-MUFA through alteration of the diet of the dairy cow, and the evidence that such changes can improve the indicators for CHD and CVD in general for the consumer. In addition, the outcome of such changes on risk factors for CHD and CVD at the population level is examined in the light of a modelling exercise involving data for eleven EU member states. Given the current and projected costs of health care, the results indicate that urgent consideration should be given to such a strategy.

Exploring the feasibility of farmers' rights

In many developing countries, there is concern that a conventional system of plant breeders' rights provides no rewards to farmers for their role in the conservation and enhancement of agro-biodiversity. To redress this imbalance, developing countries are incorporating farmers' rights provisions in their plant variety protection legislation. This article examines the feasibility of farmers' rights provisions based on intellectual property rights. It argues that the farmers' rights provisions crafted by some developing countries will involve enormous operational difficulties, while IPR-based farmers' rights are unlikely to provide significant economic returns to farmers or farming communities. At the same time, farmers' rights provisions, as currently conceived, are likely significantly to dilute the incentives for innovation provided to institutional plant breeders.

Point estimates and confidence regions for sequential trials involving selection

A number of authors have proposed clinical trial designs involving the comparison of several experimental treatments with a control treatment in two or more stages. At the end of the first stage, the most promising experimental treatment is selected, and all other experimental treatments are dropped from the trial. Provided it is good enough, the selected experimental treatment is then compared with the control treatment in one or more subsequent stages. The analysis of data from such a trial is problematic because of the treatment selection and the possibility of stopping at interim analyses. These aspects lead to bias in the maximum-likelihood estimate of the advantage of the selected experimental treatment over the control and to inaccurate coverage for the associated confidence interval. In this paper, we evaluate the bias of the maximum-likelihood estimate and propose a bias-adjusted estimate. We also propose an approach to the construction of a confidence region for the vector of advantages of the experimental treatments over the control based on an ordering of the sample space. These regions are shown to have accurate coverage, although they are also shown to be necessarily unbounded. Confidence intervals for the advantage of the selected treatment are obtained from the confidence regions and are shown to have more accurate coverage than the standard confidence interval based upon the maximum-likelihood estimate and its asymptotic standard error.

The genus Borassus (Arecaceae) in West Africa, with a description of a new species from Burkina Faso

Borassus akeassii Bayton, Ouedraogo & Guinko sp. nov. (Arecaceae) is described as a new species from western Burkina Faso in West Africa. It has been confused with the widely distributed African species B. aethiopum and more recently with the Asian B. flabellifer. However, it is distinguished by its glaucous, green leaves with weakly armed petioles and a characteristic pattern of lamina venation. The fruits have a pointed apex and are greenish when ripe, and the flowers of the pistillate inflorescence are arranged in three spirals. The pollen has a reticulate tectum and distinctive ornamentation. The distribution of B. akeassii is discussed and the status of the varieties of Borassus aethiopum (var. bagamojensis and var. senegalensis) is examined. (c) 2006 The Linnean Society of London.

Relative importance of fertiliser addition to plants and exclusion of predators for aphid growth in the field

Herbivore dynamics and community structure are influenced both by plant quality and the actions of natural enemies. A factorial experiment manipulating both higher and lower trophic levels was designed to explore the determinants of colony growth of the aphid Aphis jacobaeae, a specialist herbivore on ragwort Senecio jacobaea. Potential plant quality was manipulated by regular addition of NPK-fertiliser and predator pressure was reduced by interception traps; the experiment was carried out at two sites. The size and persistence of aphid colonies were measured. Fertiliser addition affected plant growth in only one site, but never had a measurable effect on aphid colony growth. In both habitats the action of insect predators dominated, imposing strong and negative effects on aphid colony performance. Ants were left unmanipulated in both sites and their performance on the aphid colonies did not significantly differ between sites or between treatments. Our results suggest that, at least for aphid herbivores on S. jacobaea, the action of generalist insect predators appears to be the dominant factor affecting colony performance and can under certain conditions even improve plant productivity.

Simulating the detailed chemical composition of secondary organic aerosol formed on a regional scale during the TORCH 2003 campaign in the southern UK

Following on from the companion study (Johnson et al., 2006), a photochemical trajectory model (PTM) has been used to simulate the chemical composition of organic aerosol for selected events during the 2003 TORCH (Tropospheric Organic Chemistry Experiment) field campaign. The PTM incorporates the speciated emissions of 124 nonmethane anthropogenic volatile organic compounds (VOC) and three representative biogenic VOC, a highly-detailed representation of the atmospheric degradation of these VOC, the emission of primary organic aerosol (POA) material and the formation of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) material. SOA formation was represented by the transfer of semi and non-volatile oxidation products from the gas-phase to a condensed organic aerosol-phase, according to estimated thermodynamic equilibrium phase-partitioning characteristics for around 2000 reaction products. After significantly scaling all phase-partitioning coefficients, and assuming a persistent background organic aerosol (both required in order to match the observed organic aerosol loadings), the detailed chemical composition of the simulated SOA has been investigated in terms of intermediate oxygenated species in the Master Chemical Mechanism, version 3.1 ( MCM v3.1). For the various case studies considered, 90% of the simulated SOA mass comprises between ca. 70 and 100 multifunctional oxygenated species derived, in varying amounts, from the photooxidation of VOC of anthropogenic and biogenic origin. The anthropogenic contribution is dominated by aromatic hydrocarbons and the biogenic contribution by alpha-and beta-pinene (which also constitute surrogates for other emitted monoterpene species). Sensitivity in the simulated mass of SOA to changes in the emission rates of anthropogenic and biogenic VOC has also been investigated for 11 case study events, and the results have been compared to the detailed chemical composition data. The role of accretion chemistry in SOA formation, and its implications for the results of the present investigation, is discussed.

Psychrobacter pulmonis sp nov., isolated from the lungs of lambs

Unusual Gram-negative, catalase- and oxidase-positive, coccus-shaped bacteria isolated from the lungs of two lambs were characterized by phenotypic and molecular-genetic methods. Comparative 16S rRNA gene sequencing studies demonstrated that the unknown isolates were genealogically highly related to each other (99.8% sequence similarity) and represent a novel subline within the genus Psychrobacter. The unknown bacterium was phylogenetically closely related to, but distinct from, Psychrobacter phenylpyruvicus, Psychrobacter immobilis, Psychrobacter glacincola and Psychrobacter urativorans. The novel Psychrobacter isolates were readily distinguished from all other Psychrobacter species and other Gram-negative, oxidase-positive bacteria usually responsible for lung infections in sheep by physiological and biochemical tests. Based on molecular-genetic and phenotypic evidence, it is proposed that the unknown Psychrobacter isolates from lambs be classified as Psychrobacterpulmonis sp. nov. The type strain is strain S-606(T) (= CECT 5989(T) = CCUG 46240(T)).