Tropical cyclones in a T159 Resolution Global Climate Model: comparison with observations and re-analyses

Tropical cyclones have been investigated in a T159 version of the MPI ECHAM5 climate model using a novel technique to diagnose the evolution of the 3-dimensional vorticity structure of tropical cyclones, including their full life cycle from weak initial vortex to their possible extra-tropical transition. Results have been compared with reanalyses (ERA40 and JRA25) and observed tropical storms during the period 1978-1999 for the Northern Hemisphere. There is no indication of any trend in the number or intensity of tropical storms during this period in ECHAM5 or in re-analyses but there are distinct inter-annual variations. The storms simulated by ECHAM5 are realistic both in space and time, but the model and even more so the re-analyses, underestimate the intensities of the most intense storms (in terms of their maximum wind speeds). There is an indication of a response to ENSO with a smaller number of Atlantic storms during El Niño in agreement with previous studies. The global divergence circulation responds to El Niño by setting up a large-scale convergence flow, with the center over the central Pacific with enhanced subsidence over the tropical Atlantic. At the same time there is an increase in the vertical wind shear in the region of the tropical Atlantic where tropical storms normally develop. There is a good correspondence between the model and ERA40 except that the divergence circulation is somewhat stronger in the model. The model underestimates storms in the Atlantic but tends to overestimate them in the Western Pacific and in the North Indian Ocean. It is suggested that the overestimation of storms in the Pacific by the model is related to an overly strong response to the tropical Pacific SST anomalies. The overestimation in 2 the North Indian Ocean is likely to be due to an over prediction in the intensity of monsoon depressions, which are then classified as intense tropical storms. Nevertheless, overall results are encouraging and will further contribute to increased confidence in simulating intense tropical storms with high-resolution climate models.

The analysis of ranked observations of soil structure using indicator geostatistics

Structure is an important physical feature of the soil that is associated with water movement, the soil atmosphere, microorganism activity and nutrient uptake. A soil without any obvious organisation of its components is known as apedal and this state can have marked effects on several soil processes. Accurate maps of topsoil and subsoil structure are desirable for a wide range of models that aim to predict erosion, solute transport, or flow of water through the soil. Also such maps would be useful to precision farmers when deciding how to apply nutrients and pesticides in a site-specific way, and to target subsoiling and soil structure stabilization procedures. Typically, soil structure is inferred from bulk density or penetrometer resistance measurements and more recently from soil resistivity and conductivity surveys. To measure the former is both time-consuming and costly, whereas observations made by the latter methods can be made automatically and swiftly using a vehicle-mounted penetrometer or resistivity and conductivity sensors. The results of each of these methods, however, are affected by other soil properties, in particular moisture content at the time of sampling, texture, and the presence of stones. Traditional methods of observing soil structure identify the type of ped and its degree of development. Methods of ranking such observations from good to poor for different soil textures have been developed. Indicator variograms can be computed for each category or rank of structure and these can be summed to give the sum of indicator variograms (SIV). Observations of the topsoil and subsoil structure were made at four field sites where the soil had developed on different parent materials. The observations were ranked by four methods and indicator and the sum of indicator variograms were computed and modelled for each method of ranking. The individual indicators were then kriged with the parameters of the appropriate indicator variogram model to map the probability of encountering soil with the structure represented by that indicator. The model parameters of the SIVs for each ranking system were used with the data to krige the soil structure classes, and the results are compared with those for the individual indicators. The relations between maps of soil structure and selected wavebands from aerial photographs are examined as basis for planning surveys of soil structure. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Record of natural and anthropogenic changes in reef environments (Barbados West Indies) using laser ablation ICP-MS and sclerochronology on coral cores

Coral growth rate can be affected by environmental parameters such as seawater temperature, depth, and light intensity. The natural reef environment is also disturbed by human influences such as anthropogenic pollutants, which in Barbados are released close to the reefs. Here we describe a relatively new method of assessing the history of pollution and explain how these effects have influenced the coral communities off the west coast of Barbados. We evaluate the relative impact of both anthropogenic pollutants and natural stresses. Sclerochronology documents framework and skeletal growth rate and records pollution history (recorded as reduced growth) for a suite of sampled Montastraea annularis coral cores. X-radiography shows annual growth band patterns of the corals extending back over several decades and indicates significantly lower growth rate in polluted sites. Results using laser-ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS) on the whole sample (aragonite, organic matter, trapped particulate matter, etc.), have shown contrasting concentrations of the trace elements (Cu, Sn, Zn, and Pb) between corals at different locations and within a single coral. Deepwater corals 7 km apart, record different levels of Pb and Sn, suggesting that a current transported the metal pollution in the water. In addition, the 1995 hurricanes are associated with anomalous values for Sn and Cu from most sites. These are believed to result from dispersion of nearshore polluted water. We compared the concentrations of trace elements in the coral growth of particular years to those in the relevant contemporaneous seawater. Mean values for the concentration factor in the coral, relative to the water, ranged from 10 for Cu and Ni to 2.4 and 0.7 for Cd and Zn, respectively. Although the uncertainties are large (60-80%), the coral record enabled us to demonstrate the possibility of calculating a history of seawater pollution for these elements from the 1940s to 1997. Our values were much higher than those obtained from analysis of carefully cleaned coral aragonite; they demonstrate the incorporation of more contamination including that from particulate material as well as dissolved metals.

Life and death in a civitas capital: metabolic disease and trauma in the children from late Roman Dorchester, Dorset

The impact that “Romanization” and the development of urban centers had on the health of the Romano-British population is little understood. A re-examination of the skeletal remains of 364 nonadults from the civitas capital at Roman Dorchester (Durnovaria) in Dorset was carried out to measure the health of the children living in this small urban area. The cemetery population was divided into two groups; the first buried their dead organized within an east–west alignment with possible Christian-style graves, and the second with more varied “pagan” graves, aligned north–south. A higher prevalence of malnutrition and trauma was evident in the children from Dorchester than in any other published Romano-British group, with levels similar to those seen in postmedieval industrial communities. Cribra orbitalia was present in 38.5% of the children, with rickets and/or scurvy at 11.2%. Twelve children displayed fractures of the ribs, with 50% of cases associated with rickets and/or scurvy, suggesting that rib fractures should be considered during the diagnosis of these conditions. The high prevalence of anemia, rickets, and scurvy in the Poundbury children, and especially the infants, indicates that this community may have adopted child-rearing practices that involved fasting the newborn, a poor quality weaning diet, and swaddling, leading to general malnutrition and inadequate exposure to sunlight. The Pagan group showed no evidence of scurvy or rib fractures, indicating difference in religious and child-rearing practices but that both burial groups were equally susceptible to rickets and anemia suggests a shared poor standard of living in this urban environment.

Stages of organizational transformation in transition economies: A dynamic capabilities approach

How do organizations previously dominated by the state develop dynamic capabilities that would support their growth in a competitive market economy? We develop a theoretical framework of organizational transformation that explains the processes by which organizations learn and develop dynamic capabilities in transition economies. Specifically, the framework theorizes about the importance of, and inter-relationships between, leadership, organizational learning, dynamic capabilities, and performance over three stages of transformation. Propositions derived from this framework explain the pre-conditions enabling organizational learning, the linkages between types of learning and functions of dynamic capabilities, and the feedback from dynamic capabilities to organizational learning that allows firms in transition economies to regain their footing and build long-term competitive advantage. We focus on transition contexts, where these processes have been magnified and thus offer new insights into strategizing in radically altered environments.

In vitro evaluation of fibrolytic enzymes as additives for maize (Zea mays L.) silage - II. Effects on rate of acidification, fibre degradation during ensiling and rumen fermentation

A study was carried out to determine the influence of fibrolytic enzymes derived from mesophilic or thermophilic fungal sources, added at ensiling, on time-course fermentation characteristics and in vitro rumen degradation of maize silage. The mesophilic enzyme was a commercial product derived from Trichodenna reesei (L), whereas the thermophilic enzyme was a crude extract produced from Thermoascus aurantiacus (Ta) in this laboratory. The fungus was cultured using maize cobs as a carbon source. The resulting fermentation extract was deionised to remove sugars and characterised for its protein concentration, main and side enzymic activities, optimal pH, protein molecular mass and isoelectric point. In an additional study, both enzymes were added to maize forage (333.5 g DM/kg, 70.0, 469.8, 227.1 and 307.5 g/kg DM of CP, NDF, ADF and starch, respectively) at two levels each, normalized according to xylanase activity, and ensiled in 0.5 kg capacity laboratory minisilos. Duplicate silos were opened at 2, 4, 8, 15, and 60 days after ensiling, and analysed for chemical characteristics. Silages from 60 days were bulked and in vitro gas production (GP) and organic matter degradability (OMD) profiles evaluated using the Reading Pressure Technique (RPT), in a completely randomised design. The crude enzyme extract contained mainly xylanase and endoglucanase activities, with very low levels of exoglucanase, which probably limited hydrolysis of filter paper. The extract contained three major protein bands of between 29 and 55 kDa, with mainly acidic isoelectric points. Ensiling maize with enzymes lowered (P < 0.05) the final silage pH, with this effect being observed throughout the ensiling process. All enzyme treatments reduced (P < 0.05) ADF contents. Treatments including Ta produced more gas (P < 0.05) than the controls after 24 h incubation in vitro, whereas end point gas production at 96 h was not affected. Addition of Ta increased (P < 0.01) OMD after 12 h (410 and 416 g/kg versus 373 g/kg), whereas both L and Ta increased (P < 0.05) OMD after 24 h. Addition of enzymes from mesophilic or thermophilic sources to maize forage at ensiling increased the rate of acidification of the silages and improved in vitro degradation kinetics, suggesting an improvement in the nutritive quality. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.

Quantitative response of the longevity of seed of twelve crops to temperature and moisture in hermetic storage

Seeds of 39 seed lots of a total of twelve different crops were stored hermetically in a wide range of air-dry environments (2-25% moisture content at 0-50 degrees C), viability assessed periodically, and the seed viability equation constants estimated. Within a species, estimates of the constants which quantify absolute longevity (K-E) and the relative effects on longevity of moisture content (C-W) and temperature (C-H and C-Q) did not differ (P >0.05 to P >0.25) among lots. Comparison among the 12 crops provided variant estimates of K-E and C-W (P< 0.01), but common values of C-H and C-Q (0.0322 and 0.000454, respectively, P >0.25). Maize (Zea mays) provided the greatest estimate of K-E (9.993, s.e.= 0.456), followed by sorghum (Sorghum bicolor) (9.381, s.e. 0.428), pearl millet (Pennisetum typhoides) (9.336, s.e.= 0.408), sugar beet (Beta vulgaris) (8.988, s.e.= 0.387), African rice (Oryza glaberrima) (8.786, s.e.= 0.484), wheat (Triticum aestivum) (8.498, s.e.= 0.431), foxtail millet (Setaria italica) (8.478, s.e.= 0.396), sugarcane (Saccharum sp.) (8.454, s.e.= 0.545), finger millet (Eleusine coracana) (8.288, s.e.= 0.392), kodo millet (Paspalum scrobiculatum) (8.138, s.e.= 0.418), rice (Oryza sativa) (8.096, s.e.= 0.416) and potato (Solanum tuberosum) (8.037, s.e.= 0.397). Similarly, estimates of C-W were ranked maize (5.993, s.e.= 0.392), pearl millet (5.540, s.e.= 0.348), sorghum (5.379, s.e.=0.365), potato (5.152, s.e.= 0.347), sugar beet (4.969, s.e.= 0.328), sugar cane (4.964, s.e.= 0.518), foxtail millet (4.829, s.e.= 0.339), wheat (4.836, s.e.= 0.366), African rice (4.727, s.e.= 0.416), kodo millet (4.435, s.e.= 0.360), finger millet (4.345, s.e.= 0.336) and rice (4.246, s.e.= 0.355). The application of these constants to long-term seed storage is discussed.

The establishment of heathland vegetation on ex-arable land: the response of Calluna vulgaris to soil acidification

The UK Biodiversity Action Plan has identified the creation of lowland heathland as an important objective. Heathland restoration studies have identified soil pH, elevated soil nutrients and large weed seed banks as major problems in the restoration of heathland vegetation on ex-arable land. Heathland vegetation is usually found on nutrient-poor acidic soils. Creating acidic soil conditions on ex-arable sites thus may produce a suitable environment for the establishment of heath vegetation. Soil acidification by the addition of sulphur has been shown to reduce the soil pH and the availability of nutrients in arable soils. A series of experiments was established to investigate the effects of soil acidification using sulphur on the establishment of Calluna vulgaris and the development of weed vegetation. The application of sulphur at 0.24 kg m(-2) to an arable soil was found to increase the survival rate of C. vulgaris cuttings planted in it. The mechanism of increased C. vulgaris survival appeared to be by sulphur application significantly reducing the cover of arable weeds arising from the soil seed bank. Higher rates of sulphur application (0.36 and 0.48 kg m(-2)) resulted in the death of many C. vidgaris plants. However C. vulgaris seedlings were able to establish successfully on these ex-arable soils within 1824 months following the addition of these levels of sulphur. The application of sulphur appears to offer a practical solution to heathland creation on ex-arable land. However, it may be necessary to provide an interval of between 18 and 24 months between the application of sulphur and the addition of C. vulgaris plants or seeds for the successful establishment of heathland vegetation. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Delaying senescence of wheat with fungicides has interacting effects with cultivar on grain sulphur concentration but not with sulphur yield or nitrogen: sulphur ratios

Winter wheat was grown in three field experiments, each repeated over two or three seasons, to investigate effects of extending flag leaf life by fungicide application on the concentration, kg ha(-1) and mg grain(-1) of nitrogen (N) and sulphur (S) as well as N:S ratio and sodium dodecyl sulphate (SDS) sedimentation volume. The experiments involved up to six cultivars and different application rates, timings and frequencies of azoxystrobin and epoxiconazole. For every day the duration to 37 % green flag leaf area (m) was extended, N yield was increased by 2.58 kg ha(-1), N per grain by 0.00957 mg, S yield by 0.186 kg ha(-1) and S per grain by 0.000718 mg. The N:S ratio decreased by 0.0135 per day. There was no evidence that these responses varied with cultivar. In contrast, the relationship between flag leaf life and N or S concentration interacted with cultivar. The N and S concentrations of Shamrock, the cultivar that suffered most from brown rust (Puccinia rccondita), increased with the extension of flag leaf life whereas the concentrations of N and S in Malacca, a cultivar more susceptible to Septoria tritici, decreased as flag leaf senescence was delayed. This was because the relationships between m and N and S yields were much better conserved over cultivars than those between m and thousand grain weight (TGW) and grain yield ha(-1). (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Changes in milk composition and processing properties during the spring flush period

The period, known to UK farmers and processors as the "spring flush", when the cows' diet changes from dry feed to spring pasture, has long been established as a time of change in milk properties and processing characteristics. Although it is believed to be a time when problems in processing are most likely to occur (e.g. milk that does not form clots or forms weak gels during cheesemaking), there is little evidence in the literature of detailed changes in milk composition and their impact on product manufacture. In this study, a range of physicochemical properties were analysed in milk collected from five commercial dairy herds before, during and after the spring flush period of 2006. In particular, total and ionic calcium contents of milk were studied in relation to other parameters including rennet clotting, acid gel properties, heat coagulation, alcohol stability, micelle size and zeta potential. Total divalent cations were significantly reduced from 35.4 to 33.4 mmol.L-1 during the study, while ionic calcium was reduced from 1.48 to 1.40 mmol.L-1 over the same period. Many parameters varied significantly between the sample dates. However, there was no evidence to suggest that any of the milk samples would have been unsuitable for processing - e.g. there were no samples that did not form clots with chymosin within a reasonable time or formed especially weak rennet or acid gels. A number of statistically significant correlations were found within the data, including ionic calcium concentration and pH; rennet clotting time (RCT) and micelle diameter; and RCT and ethanol stability. Overall, while there were clear variations in milk composition and properties over this period, there was no evidence to support the view that serious processing problems are likely during the change from dry feed to spring pasture.

Contractor key competitiveness indicators: A China study

A proper method to assess contractor competitiveness is important both for assisting clients in the selection of proper contractors and for assisting contractors in the development of more competitive bidding strategies. Previous studies have identified various indicators for assessing contractor competitiveness, and several assessment methods have been introduced. Nevertheless, these studies are limited because they are unable to tell which indicators are more important in different market environments. This paper identifies the key competitiveness indicators �KCIs� for assessing contractor competitiveness in the Chinese construction market. An index value is used to indicate the relative significance of various competitiveness indicators based on which KCIs are identified. The data applied in this study are from a survey of the construction industry in mainland China. The research findings provide valuable information for both existing businesses and the construction professionals who plan to compete for construction works in the Chinese market. The study provides useful references for further studies that compare the KCIs used in the Chinese construction industry and those used in other construction industries.

Educational participation post-16: a longitudinal analysis of intentions and outcomes

The issue of levels of participation in post-compulsory education has been emphasised by the current policy initiatives to increase the age to which some form of participation is compulsory. One of the acknowledged weaknesses of research in the field of children's intentions with regard to participation is the lack of longitudinal data. This paper offers a longitudinal analysis using the Youth Survey from the British Household Panel Survey. The results show that most children can express intentions with regard to future participation very early in their secondary school careers and that these intentions are good predictors of actual behaviour five years later. Intentions to stay on are more consistent than intentions to leave and most children who finally leave at 16 have at some point said they want to remain in education post-16. The strongest association with participation levels is attainment at GCSE. However, there are also influences of gender and parental background and these remain, even after attainment is held constant. The results show the value of focusing on intentions for participation at a very early stage of children's school careers and also the importance of current attempts to reform curriculum and assessment for the 14-19 age group.

A comparison of two time-domain analysis procedures in the determination of VO2 kinetics by pseudorandom binary sequence exercise testing

The purpose of this study was to apply and compare two time-domain analysis procedures in the determination of oxygen uptake (VO2) kinetics in response to a pseudorandom binary sequence (PRBS) exercise test. PRBS exercise tests have typically been analysed in the frequency domain. However, the complex interpretation of frequency responses may have limited the application of this procedure in both sporting and clinical contexts, where a single time measurement would facilitate subject comparison. The relative potential of both a mean response time (MRT) and a peak cross-correlation time (PCCT) was investigated. This study was divided into two parts: a test-retest reliability study (part A), in which 10 healthy male subjects completed two identical PRBS exercise tests, and a comparison of the VO2 kinetics of 12 elite endurance runners (ER) and 12 elite sprinters (SR; part B). In part A, 95% limits of agreement were calculated for comparison between MRT and PCCT. The results of part A showed no significant difference between test and retest as assessed by MRT [mean (SD) 42.2 (4.2) s and 43.8 (6.9) s] or by PCCT [21.8 (3.7) s and 22.7 (4.5) s]. Measurement error (%) was lower for MRT in comparison with PCCT (16% and 25%, respectively). In part B of the study, the VO2 kinetics of ER were significantly faster than those of SR, as assessed by MRT [33.4 (3.4) s and 39.9 (7.1) s, respectively; P<0.01] and PCCT [20.9 (3.8) s and 24.8 (4.5) s; P < 0.05]. It is possible that either analysis procedure could provide a single test measurement Of VO2 kinetics; however, the greater reliability of the MRT data suggests that this method has more potential for development in the assessment Of VO2 kinetics by PRBS exercise testing.