Improved simulation of water vapour and clear-sky radiation using 24 hour forecasts from ERA40

Monthly mean water vapour and clear-sky radiation extracted from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts 40-year reanalysis (ERA40) forecasts are assessed using satellite observations and additional reanalysis data. There is a marked improvement in the interannual variability of column-integrated water vapour (CWV) over the oceans when using the 24-hour forecasts compared with the standard 6-hour forecasts products. The spatial distribution of CWV are well simulated by the 6-hour forecasts; using the 24-hour forecasts does not degrade this simulation substantially and in many cases improves on the quality. There is also an improved simulation of clear-sky radiation from the 24-hour forecasts compared with the 6-hour forecasts based on comparison with satellite observations and empirical estimates. Further work is required to assess the quality of water vapour simulation by reanalyses over land regions. Over the oceans, it is recommended that 24-hour forecasts of CWV and clear-sky radiation are used in preference to the standard 6-hour forecast products from ERA40

Devolution and the political representation of business interests in the UK

The devolution of political power in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland and the developing regional agenda in England are widely read as a significant reconfiguration of the institutions and scales of economic governance. The process is furthest developed in Scotland while Wales and Northern Ireland, in their own distinct ways, provide intermediate cases. Devolution is least developed in England where regional political identities are generally weak and the historical legacy of regional institutions is limited. Within the overall context of devolution government policy has continued to emphasize partnership forms of. governance. Accordingly, the political representation of business interests has a particular salience in the new arrangements. This paper reports on findings from a study designed to examine the relationship between devolution and changes in the political representation of business interests in the territories and regions of the UK. It highlights a number of changes in the nature and extent of business representation. While some of these are significant the evidence suggests that they fail to mark a fundamental shift in the institutional foundation for sub-national business interest representation in the UK. Indeed the political geography of business representation remains dominated by an overarching centralism that is likely to provide a significant check on the further devolution of political power and democratic authority. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sensitivity analysis of a catchment-scale nitrogen model

There are now considerable expectations that semi-distributed models are useful tools for supporting catchment water quality management. However, insufficient attention has been given to evaluating the uncertainties inherent to this type of model, especially those associated with the spatial disaggregation of the catchment. The Integrated Nitrogen in Catchments model (INCA) is subjected to an extensive regionalised sensitivity analysis in application to the River Kennet, part of the groundwater-dominated upper Thames catchment, UK The main results are: (1) model output was generally insensitive to land-phase parameters, very sensitive to groundwater parameters, including initial conditions, and significantly sensitive to in-river parameters; (2) INCA was able to produce good fits simultaneously to the available flow, nitrate and ammonium in-river data sets; (3) representing parameters as heterogeneous over the catchment (206 calibrated parameters) rather than homogeneous (24 calibrated parameters) produced a significant improvement in fit to nitrate but no significant improvement to flow and caused a deterioration in ammonium performance; (4) the analysis indicated that calibrating the flow-related parameters first, then calibrating the remaining parameters (as opposed to calibrating all parameters together) was not a sensible strategy in this case; (5) even the parameters to which the model output was most sensitive suffered from high uncertainty due to spatial inconsistencies in the estimated optimum values, parameter equifinality and the sampling error associated with the calibration method; (6) soil and groundwater nutrient and flow data are needed to reduce. uncertainty in initial conditions, residence times and nitrogen transformation parameters, and long-term historic data are needed so that key responses to changes in land-use management can be assimilated. The results indicate the general, difficulty of reconciling the questions which catchment nutrient models are expected to answer with typically limited data sets and limited knowledge about suitable model structures. The results demonstrate the importance of analysing semi-distributed model uncertainties prior to model application, and illustrate the value and limitations of using Monte Carlo-based methods for doing so. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Devolution and the political representation of business interests in the UK

The devolution of political power in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland and the developing regional agenda in England are widely read as a significant reconfiguration of the institutions and scales of economic governance. The process is furthest developed in Scotland while Wales and Northern Ireland, in their own distinct ways, provide intermediate cases. Devolution is least developed in England where regional political identities are generally weak and the historical legacy of regional institutions is limited. Within the overall context of devolution government policy has continued to emphasize partnership forms of. governance. Accordingly, the political representation of business interests has a particular salience in the new arrangements. This paper reports on findings from a study designed to examine the relationship between devolution and changes in the political representation of business interests in the territories and regions of the UK. It highlights a number of changes in the nature and extent of business representation. While some of these are significant the evidence suggests that they fail to mark a fundamental shift in the institutional foundation for sub-national business interest representation in the UK. Indeed the political geography of business representation remains dominated by an overarching centralism that is likely to provide a significant check on the further devolution of political power and democratic authority. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Galactic cosmic ray hazard in the unusual extended solar minimum between solar cycle 23 and 24

Galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) are extremely difficult to shield against and pose one of the most severe long-term hazards for human exploration of space. The recent solar minimum between solar cycles 23 and 24 shows a prolonged period of reduced solar activity and low interplanetary magnetic field strengths. As a result, the modulation of GCRs is very weak, and the fluxes of GCRs are near their highest levels in the last 25 years in the fall of 2009. Here we explore the dose rates of GCRs in the current prolonged solar minimum and make predictions for the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) Cosmic Ray Telescope for the Effects of Radiation (CRaTER), which is now measuring GCRs in the lunar environment. Our results confirm the weak modulation of GCRs leading to the largest dose rates seen in the last 25 years over a prolonged period of little solar activity.

Improving participatory varietal selection processes: participatory varietal selection and the role of informal seed diffusion mechanisms for upland rice in Ghana

This paper considers the process of Participatory Varietal Selection (PVS) and presents approaches and ideas based on PVS activities conducted on upland rice throughout Ghana between 1997 and 2003. In particular the role of informal seed systems in PVS is investigated and implications for PVS design are identified. PVS programmes were conducted in two main agroecological zones, Forest and Savannah, with 1,578 and 1,143 mm of annual rainfall, respectively, and between 40 and 100 varieties tested at each site. In the Savannah zone IR12979-24-1 was officially released and in the Forest zone IDSA 85 was widely accepted by farmers. Two surveys were conducted in an area of the Forest zone to study mechanisms of spread. Here small amounts (1-2 kg) of seed of selected varieties had been given to 94 farmers. In 2002, 37% of 2,289 farmers in communities surveyed had already grown a PVS variety and had obtained seed via informal mechanisms from other farmers, i.e. through gift, exchange or purchase. A modified approach for PVS is presented which enables important issues identified in the paper to be accommodated. These issues include: utilising existing seed spread mechanisms; facilitating formal release of acceptable varieties; assessing post-harvest traits, and; the need for PVS to be an ongoing and sustainable process.

Productivity of crossbred dairy cows suckling their calves for 12 or 24 weeks post calving

An experiment on restricted suckling of crossbred dairy cows was conducted at the Livestock Research Centre, Tanga in northeast Tanzania. Thirty-six Bos taurus (Holstein Friesian and Jersey) x Bos indicus (East African Zebu) cows were allocated alternately as they calved to suckling their calves for either 12 or 24 weeks after calving. Cows grazed improved pastures and were offered 4 kg concentrate daily. Milking occurred twice daily by hand; calves were allowed to suck residual milk for 30 min following each milking. Calves were also allowed access to grazing and were offered a maximum of I kg concentrate daily to 24 weeks of age. Weaning age had no significant effect on lactation milk yield for human consumption, the mean (SE) yield being 1806 (102.0) L and 1705 (129. 1) L for 12- and 24-week weaning, respectively. Cows from the two treatments suffered similar losses of live weight and body condition score during lactation and neither group had returned to the original body condition score 40 weeks following calving. Post-partum anoestrous intervals were prolonged. Although not significant, cows suckling calves to 24 weeks had a mean interval to first oestrus extended by 38 days compared with cows suckling calves to 12 weeks. The mean (SE) daily live weight gains of the calves to 52 weeks were 263 (14.1) g/day and 230 (18.1) g/day for calves weaned at 12 and 24 weeks, respectively, such that 12-month weights were 119 (5.6) kg and 110 (7.3) kg, respectively. Twelve-week-weaned calves consumed more concentrate (p < 0.05) from 13 to 24 weeks than did 24-week weaned calves. Calculation of residual milk consumption removed by calves from birth to 12 weeks indicated that it accounted for 28% of total yield. No benefits in cow and calf performance and welfare were found to justify prolonging the suckling period to 24 weeks.

Relationship between 24-hour urinary-free cortisol excretion and salivary cortisol levels sampled from awakening to bedtime in healthy subjects

The utility of repeated salivary cortisol sampling as a substitute for 24-hour urinary-free cortisol (UFC) assessment was examined. Forty-four participants completed both 24-hour collections and 6 salivary collections at wake-up, 08:00, 12:00, 16:00, 20:00 and bedtime, during the same 24-hour period. The results demonstrated that mean, maximum, and amplitude (maximum minus minimum) for salivary cortisol all correlated positively with urinary cortisol, but the associations of these variables with urinary-free cortisol excretion were relatively small. Furthermore, a single salivary sample taken at wake-up was as good an indicator of overall cortisol production as the measures derived from multiple salivary samples. An examination of subject compliance indicated that many subjects failed to collect the timed salivary collections as instructed. The authors conclude that diurnal salivary cortisol sampling versus 24-hour urinary cortisol collections are likely to provide different information about ambient hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal productivity, and therefore these measures should not be used interchangeably. In addition, subject compliance is a serious consideration in designing studies that employ home salivary collections. Published by Elsevier Science Inc.

Solar cycle 24: implications for energetic particles and long-term space climate change

The recent solar minimum was the longest and deepest of the space age, with the lowest average sunspot numbers for nearly a century. The Sun appears to be exiting a grand solar maximum (GSM) of activity which has persisted throughout the space age, and is headed into a significantly quieter period. Indeed, initial observations of solar cycle 24 (SC24) continue to show a relatively low heliospheric magnetic field strength and sunspot number (R), despite the average latitude of sunspots and the inclination of the heliospheric current sheet showing the rise to solar maximum is well underway. We extrapolate the available SC24 observations forward in time by assuming R will continue to follow a similar form to previous cycles, despite the end of the GSM, and predict a very weak cycle 24, with R peaking at ∼65–75 around the middle/end of 2012. Similarly, we estimate the heliospheric magnetic field strength will peak around 6nT. We estimate that average galactic cosmic ray fluxes above 1GV rigidity will be ∼10% higher in SC24 than SC23 and that the probability of a large SEP event during this cycle is 0.8, compared to 0.5 for SC23. Comparison of the SC24 R estimates with previous ends of GSMs inferred from 9300 years of cosmogenic isotope data places the current evolution of the Sun and heliosphere in the lowest 5% of cases, suggesting Maunder Minimum conditions are likely within the next 40 years.

Dietary intakes and food sources of phytoestrogens in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) 24-hour dietary recall cohort

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Phytoestrogens are estradiol-like natural compounds found in plants that have been associated with protective effects against chronic diseases, including some cancers, cardiovascular diseases and osteoporosis. The purpose of this study was to estimate the dietary intake of phytoestrogens, identify their food sources and their association with lifestyle factors in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. SUBJECTS/METHODS: Single 24-hour dietary recalls were collected from 36 037 individuals from 10 European countries, aged 35–74 years using a standardized computerized interview programe (EPIC-Soft). An ad hoc food composition database on phytoestrogens (isoflavones, lignans, coumestans, enterolignans and equol) was compiled using data from available databases, in order to obtain and describe phytoestrogen intakes and their food sources across 27 redefined EPIC centres. RESULTS: Mean total phytoestrogen intake was the highest in the UK health-conscious group (24.9 mg/day in men and 21.1 mg/day in women) whereas lowest in Greece (1.3 mg/day) in men and Spain-Granada (1.0 mg/day) in women. Northern European countries had higher intakes than southern countries. The main phytoestrogen contributors were isoflavones in both UK centres and lignans in the other EPIC cohorts. Age, body mass index, educational level, smoking status and physical activity were related to increased intakes of lignans, enterolignans and equol, but not to total phytoestrogen, isoflavone or coumestan intakes. In the UK cohorts, the major food sources of phytoestrogens were soy products. In the other EPIC cohorts the dietary sources were more distributed, among fruits, vegetables, soy products, cereal products, non-alcoholic and alcoholic beverages. CONCLUSIONS: There was a high variability in the dietary intake of total and phytoestrogen subclasses and their food sources across European regions.

Solar cycle 24: what is the sun up to?

March 2012 brought the first solar and geomagnetic disturbances of any note during solar cycle 24. But perhaps what was most remarkable about these events was how unremarkable they were compared to others during the space-age, attracting attention only because solar activity had been so quiet. This follows an exceptionally low and long-lived solar cycle minimum, and so the current cycle looks likely to extend a long-term decline in solar activity that started around 1985 and that could even lead to conditions similar to the Maunder minimum within 40 years from now, with implications for solar-terrestrial science and the mitigation of space weather hazards and maybe even for climate in certain regions and seasons.

Field manual 3-24 and the heritage of counterinsurgency theory

The Counterinsurgency Manual FM 3-24 has been accused of being over-dependent on the counterinsurgency 'classics' Galula and Thompson. But comparison reveals that it is different in spirit. Galula and Thompson seek practical control; the Manual seeks to build 'legitimacy'. Its concept of legitimacy is superficially Weberian, but owes more to the writings of the American Max Manwaring. The Manual presupposes that a rights-based legal order can (other things being equal) be made to be cross-culturally attractive; 'effective governance' by itself can build legitimacy. The fusion of its methods with an ideology creates unrealistic criteria for success. Its weaknesses suggest a level of incapacity to think politically that will, in time, result in further failures.