The relationship between land–ccean surface temperature contrast and radiative forcing

Previous work has demonstrated that observed and modeled climates show a near-time-invariant ratio of mean land to mean ocean surface temperature change under transient and equilibrium global warming. This study confirms this in a range of atmospheric models coupled to perturbed sea surface temperatures (SSTs), slab (thermodynamics only) oceans, and a fully coupled ocean. Away from equilibrium, it is found that the atmospheric processes that maintain the ratio cause a land-to-ocean heat transport anomaly that can be approximated using a two-box energy balance model. When climate is forced by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration, the heat transport anomaly moves heat from land to ocean, constraining the land to warm in step with the ocean surface, despite the small heat capacity of the land. The heat transport anomaly is strongly related to the top-of-atmosphere radiative flux imbalance, and hence it tends to a small value as equilibrium is approached. In contrast, when climate is forced by prescribing changes in SSTs, the heat transport anomaly replaces ‘‘missing’’ radiative forcing over land by moving heat from ocean to land, warming the land surface. The heat transport anomaly remains substantial in steady state. These results are consistent with earlier studies that found that both land and ocean surface temperature changes may be approximated as local responses to global mean radiative forcing. The modeled heat transport anomaly has large impacts on surface heat fluxes but small impacts on precipitation, circulation, and cloud radiative forcing compared with the impacts of surface temperature change. No substantial nonlinearities are found in these atmospheric variables when the effects of forcing and surface temperature change are added.

A lagged response to the 11 year solar cycle in observed winter Atlantic/European weather patterns

The surface response to 11 year solar cycle variations is investigated by analyzing the long-term mean sea level pressure and sea surface temperature observations for the period 1870–2010. The analysis reveals a statistically significant 11 year solar signal over Europe, and the North Atlantic provided that the data are lagged by a few years. The delayed signal resembles the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) following a solar maximum. The corresponding sea surface temperature response is consistent with this. A similar analysis is performed on long-term climate simulations from a coupled ocean-atmosphere version of the Hadley Centre model that has an extended upper lid so that influences of solar variability via the stratosphere are well resolved. The model reproduces the positive NAO signal over the Atlantic/European sector, but the lag of the surface response is not well reproduced. Possible mechanisms for the lagged nature of the observed response are discussed.

Large-scale dynamics associated with clustering of extratropical cyclones affecting Western Europe

Some recent winters in Western Europe have been characterized by the occurrence of multiple extratropical cyclones following a similar path. The occurrence of such cyclone clusters leads to large socio-economic impacts due to damaging winds, storm surges, and floods. Recent studies have statistically characterized the clustering of extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic and Europe and hypothesized potential physical mechanisms responsible for their formation. Here we analyze 4 months characterized by multiple cyclones over Western Europe (February 1990, January 1993, December 1999, and January 2007). The evolution of the eddy driven jet stream, Rossby wave-breaking, and upstream/downstream cyclone development are investigated to infer the role of the large-scale flow and to determine if clustered cyclones are related to each other. Results suggest that optimal conditions for the occurrence of cyclone clusters are provided by a recurrent extension of an intensified eddy driven jet toward Western Europe lasting at least 1 week. Multiple Rossby wave-breaking occurrences on both the poleward and equatorward flanks of the jet contribute to the development of these anomalous large-scale conditions. The analysis of the daily weather charts reveals that upstream cyclone development (secondary cyclogenesis, where new cyclones are generated on the trailing fronts of mature cyclones) is strongly related to cyclone clustering, with multiple cyclones developing on a single jet streak. The present analysis permits a deeper understanding of the physical reasons leading to the occurrence of cyclone families over the North Atlantic, enabling a better estimation of the associated cumulative risk over Europe.

Productivity of crossbred dairy cows suckling their calves for 12 or 24 weeks post calving

An experiment on restricted suckling of crossbred dairy cows was conducted at the Livestock Research Centre, Tanga in northeast Tanzania. Thirty-six Bos taurus (Holstein Friesian and Jersey) x Bos indicus (East African Zebu) cows were allocated alternately as they calved to suckling their calves for either 12 or 24 weeks after calving. Cows grazed improved pastures and were offered 4 kg concentrate daily. Milking occurred twice daily by hand; calves were allowed to suck residual milk for 30 min following each milking. Calves were also allowed access to grazing and were offered a maximum of I kg concentrate daily to 24 weeks of age. Weaning age had no significant effect on lactation milk yield for human consumption, the mean (SE) yield being 1806 (102.0) L and 1705 (129. 1) L for 12- and 24-week weaning, respectively. Cows from the two treatments suffered similar losses of live weight and body condition score during lactation and neither group had returned to the original body condition score 40 weeks following calving. Post-partum anoestrous intervals were prolonged. Although not significant, cows suckling calves to 24 weeks had a mean interval to first oestrus extended by 38 days compared with cows suckling calves to 12 weeks. The mean (SE) daily live weight gains of the calves to 52 weeks were 263 (14.1) g/day and 230 (18.1) g/day for calves weaned at 12 and 24 weeks, respectively, such that 12-month weights were 119 (5.6) kg and 110 (7.3) kg, respectively. Twelve-week-weaned calves consumed more concentrate (p < 0.05) from 13 to 24 weeks than did 24-week weaned calves. Calculation of residual milk consumption removed by calves from birth to 12 weeks indicated that it accounted for 28% of total yield. No benefits in cow and calf performance and welfare were found to justify prolonging the suckling period to 24 weeks.