Radiative forcing due to changes in ozone and methane caused by the transport sector

The year 2000 radiative forcing (RF) due to changes in O3 and CH4 (and the CH4-induced stratospheric water vapour) as a result of emissions of short-lived gases (oxides of nitrogen (NOx), carbon monoxide and non-methane hydrocarbons) from three transport sectors (ROAD, maritime SHIPping and AIRcraft) are calculated using results from five global atmospheric chemistry models. Using results from these models plus other published data, we quantify the uncertainties. The RF due to short-term O3 changes (i.e. as an immediate response to the emissions without allowing for the long-term CH4 changes) is positive and highest for ROAD transport (31mWm-2) compared to SHIP (24 mWm-2) and AIR (17 mWm-2) sectors in four of the models. All five models calculate negative RF from the CH4 perturbations, with a larger impact from the SHIP sector than for ROAD and AIR. The net RF of O3 and CH4 combined (i.e. including the impact of CH4 on ozone and stratospheric water vapour) is positive for ROAD (+16(±13)(one standard deviation) mWm-2) and AIR (+6(±5) mWm-2) traffic sectors and is negative for SHIP (-18(±10) mWm-2) sector in all five models. Global Warming Potentials (GWP) and Global Temperature change Potentials (GTP) are presented for AIR NOx emissions; there is a wide spread in the results from the 5 chemistry models, and it is shown that differences in the methane response relative to the O3 response drive much of the spread.

The vertical cloud structure of the West African monsoon: a 4 year climatology using CloudSat and CALIPSO

The West African summer monsoon (WAM) is an important driver of the global climate and locally provides most of the annual rainfall. A solid climatological knowledge of the complex vertical cloud structure is invaluable to forecasters and modelers to improve the understanding of the WAM. In this paper, 4 years of data from the CloudSat profiling radar and CALIPSO are used to create a composite zonal mean vertical cloud and precipitation structure for the WAM. For the first time, the near-coincident vertical radar and lidar profiles allow for the identification of individual cloud types from optically thin cirrus and shallow cumulus to congestus and deep convection. A clear diurnal signal in zonal mean cloud structure is observed for the WAM, with deep convective activity enhanced at night producing extensive anvil and cirrus, while daytime observations show more shallow cloud and congestus. A layer of altocumulus is frequently observed over the Sahara at night and day, extending southward to the coastline, and the majority of this cloud is shown to contain supercooled liquid in the top. The occurrence of deep convective systems and congestus in relation to the position of the African easterly jet is studied, but only the daytime cumulonimbus distribution indicates some influence of the jet position.

To what extent do pupils perceive science to be inconsistent with religious faith? An exploratory survey of 13-14 year-old English pupils

Scientists hold a wide range of beliefs on matters of religion, although popular media coverage in the UK commonly suggests that atheism is a core commitment for scientists. Considering the relationship between religion and science is a recommended topic in the English National Curriculum for lower secondary pupils (11-14 year-olds), and it is expected that different perspectives will be considered. However it is well established that many pupils may have difficulty accessing sophisticated ideas about the nature of science, and previous research suggests some may identify science with scientism. To explore pupil impressions of the relationship between science and religion, 13-14 year old pupils were surveyed in one class from each of four English secondary schools, by asking them to rate a set of statements about the relationship between science and religion, and scientific and religious perspectives on the origins of the world, and of life on earth, on the value of prayer and on the status of miracles. The survey revealed diverse views on these issues, reflecting the wider society. However it was found that a considerable proportion of the pupils in the sample considered religious beliefs and scientific perspectives to be opposed. The basis and potential consequences of such views are considered, and the need for more attention to this area of student thinking is highlighted.

Emotion processing in infancy: specificity in risk for social anxiety and associations with two year outcomes

The current study examined the specificity of patterns of responding to high and low intensity negative emotional expressions of infants of mothers with social phobia, and their association with child outcomes at two years of age. Infants of mothers with social phobia, generalised anxiety disorder (GAD) or no history of anxiety were shown pairs of angry and fearful emotional expressions at 10 weeks of age. Symptoms of social withdrawal, anxiety and sleep problems were assessed at two years of age. Only infants of mothers with social phobia showed a tendency to look away from high intensity fear faces; however infants of mothers with both social phobia and GAD showed a bias towards high intensity angry faces. Among the offspring of mothers with social phobia, anxiety symptoms at two years of age were associated with a preference for high intensity fear faces in infancy. The reverse pattern was found amongst the offspring of non-anxious mothers. These findings suggest a possible specific response to emotional expressions among the children of mothers with social phobia.

An 11,600 year old communal structure from the Neolithic of southern Jordan

The authors present a new type of communal and monumental structure from the earliest Neolithic in western Asia. A complement to the decorated stone pillars erected at Göbekli Tepe in the north, ‘Wadi Faynan 16 Structure O75’ in the southern Levant is a ritualised gathering place of a different kind. It serves to define wider western Asia as an arena of social experiment in the tenth millennium BC, one in which community seems to take precedence over economy.

The role of temperament and family environment in the development of anxiety disorder: two-year follow-up

Objective Behavioural inhibition (BI) in early childhood is associated with increased risk for anxiety. The present research examines BI alongside family environment factors, specifically maternal negativity and overinvolvement, maternal anxiety and mother-child attachment, with a view to providing a broader understanding of the development of child anxiety. Method Participants were 202 children classified at age 4 as either behaviourally inhibited (N=102) or uninhibited (N=100). Family environment, BI and child anxiety were assessed at baseline and child anxiety and BI were assessed again two-years later when participants were aged 6 years. Results After controlling for baseline anxiety, inhibited participants were significantly more likely to meet criteria for a diagnosis of social phobia and generalized anxiety disorder at follow-up. Path analysis suggested that maternal anxiety significantly affected child anxiety over time, even after controlling for the effects of BI and baseline anxiety. No significant paths from parenting or attachment to child anxiety were found. Maternal overinvolvement was significantly associated with BI at follow-up. Conclusions At age 4, BI, maternal anxiety and child anxiety represent risk factors for anxiety at age 6. Furthermore, overinvolved parenting increases risk for BI at age 6, which may then lead to the development of anxiety in later childhood.

Acrylamide concentrations in potato crisps in Europe from 2002 to 2011

A dataset of manufacturers' measurements of acrylamide levels in 40,455 samples of fresh sliced potato crisps from 20 European countries for years 2002 to 2011 was compiled. This dataset is by far the largest ever compiled relating to acrylamide levels in potato crisps. Analysis of variance was applied to the data and showed a clear, significant downward trend for mean levels of acrylamide, from 763 +/- 91.1 ng g(-1) (parts per billion) in 2002 to 358 +/- 2.5 ng g(-1) in 2011; this was a decrease of 53% +/- 13.5%. The yearly 95th quantile values were also subject to a clear downward trend. The effect of seasonality arising from the influence of potato storage on acrylamide levels was evident, with acrylamide in the first 6 months of the year being significantly higher than in the second 6 months. The proportion of samples containing acrylamide at a level above the indicative value of 1000ngg(-1) for potato crisps introduced by the European Commission in 2011 fell from 23.8% in 2002 to 3.2% in 2011. Nevertheless, even in 2011, a small proportion of samples still contained high levels of acrylamide, with 0.2% exceeding 2000ngg(-1).

Predictors of onset of depression and anxiety in the year after diagnosis of breast cancer

Background Depression and anxiety are common after diagnosis of breast cancer. We examined to what extent these are recurrences of previous disorder and, controlling for this, whether shame, self-blame and low social support after diagnosis predicted onset of depression and anxiety subsequently. Method Women with primary breast cancer who had been treated surgically self-reported shame, self-blame, social support and emotional distress post-operatively. Psychiatric interview 12 months later identified those with adult lifetime episodes of major depression (MD) or generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) before diagnosis and onset over the subsequent year. Statistical analysis examined predictors of each disorder in that year. Results Of the patients, two-thirds with episodes of MD and 40% with episodes of GAD during the year after diagnosis were experiencing recurrence of previous disorder. Although low social support, self-blame and shame were each associated with both MD and GAD after diagnosis, they did not mediate the relationship of disorder after diagnosis with previous disorder. Low social support, but not shame or self-blame, predicted recurrence after controlling for previous disorder. Conclusions Anxiety and depression during the first year after diagnosis of breast cancer are often the recurrence of previous disorder. In predicting disorder following diagnosis, self-blame and shame are merely markers of previous disorder. Low social support is an independent predictor and therefore may have a causal role.