Climate change and heat-related mortality in six cities Part 2: climate model evaluation and projected impacts from changes in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change

Previous assessments of the impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality use the "delta method" to create temperature projection time series that are applied to temperature-mortality models to estimate future mortality impacts. The delta method means that climate model bias in the modelled present does not influence the temperature projection time series and impacts. However, the delta method assumes that climate change will result only in a change in the mean temperature but there is evidence that there will also be changes in the variability of temperature with climate change. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the importance of considering changes in temperature variability with climate change in impacts assessments of future heat-related mortality. We investigate future heatrelated mortality impacts in six cities (Boston, Budapest, Dallas, Lisbon, London and Sydney) by applying temperature projections from the UK Meteorological Office HadCM3 climate model to the temperature-mortality models constructed and validated in Part 1. We investigate the impacts for four cases based on various combinations of mean and variability changes in temperature with climate change. The results demonstrate that higher mortality is attributed to increases in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change rather than with the change in mean temperature alone. This has implications for interpreting existing impacts estimates that have used the delta method. We present a novel method for the creation of temperature projection time series that includes changes in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change and is not influenced by climate model bias in the modelled present. The method should be useful for future impacts assessments. Few studies consider the implications that the limitations of the climate model may have on the heatrelated mortality impacts. Here, we demonstrate the importance of considering this by conducting an evaluation of the daily and extreme temperatures from HadCM3, which demonstrates that the estimates of future heat-related mortality for Dallas and Lisbon may be overestimated due to positive climate model bias. Likewise, estimates for Boston and London may be underestimated due to negative climate model bias. Finally, we briefly consider uncertainties in the impacts associated with greenhouse gas emissions and acclimatisation. The uncertainties in the mortality impacts due to different emissions scenarios of greenhouse gases in the future varied considerably by location. Allowing for acclimatisation to an extra 2°C in mean temperatures reduced future heat-related mortality by approximately half that of no acclimatisation in each city.

The mean evolution and variability of the Asian summer monsoon: Comparison of ECMWF and NCEP-NCAR reanalyses

The behavior of the Asian summer monsoon is documented and compared using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis (ERA) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR) Reanalysis. In terms of seasonal mean climatologies the results suggest that, in several respects, the ERA is superior to the NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis. The overall better simulation of the precipitation and hence the diabatic heating field over the monsoon domain in ERA means that the analyzed circulation is probably nearer reality. In terms of interannual variability, inconsistencies in the definition of weak and strong monsoon years based on typical monsoon indices such as All-India Rainfall (AIR) anomalies and the large-scale wind shear based dynamical monsoon index (DMI) still exist. Two dominant modes of interannual variability have been identified that together explain nearly 50% of the variance. Individually, they have many features in common with the composite flow patterns associated with weak and strong monsoons, when defined in terms of regional AIR anomalies and the large-scale DMI. The reanalyses also show a common dominant mode of intraseasonal variability that describes the latitudinal displacement of the tropical convergence zone from its oceanic-to-continental regime and essentially captures the low-frequency active/break cycles of the monsoon. The relationship between interannual and intraseasonal variability has been investigated by considering the probability density function (PDF) of the principal component of the dominant intraseasonal mode. Based on the DMI, there is an indication that in years with a weaker monsoon circulation, the PDF is skewed toward negative values (i,e., break conditions). Similarly, the PDFs for El Nino and La Nina years suggest that El Nino predisposes the system to more break spells, although the sample size may limit the statistical significance of the results.

The anharmonic force field of HCN and HCP

The quadratic, cubic, and quartic force field of HCN has been calculated by a least squares refinement to fit the most recent observed data on the vibration-rotation constants of HCN, DCN and H13CN. All of the observed parameters are fitted within their standard errors of observation. The corresponding parameters for other isotopic species are calculated. For HCP and DCP the more limited data available have been fitted to an anharmonic force field using constraints based on comparison with HCN. Using this force field the zero-point rotational constants B0 have been corrected to obtain the equilibrium constants Be, and hence the equilibrium structure has been determined to be re(CH) = 1•0692(7)A, and re(CP) = 1•5398(2)A.

The ν2, 2ν2, 3ν2, ν4 and ν2+ν4 bands of 15NH3

The ir absorption of gaseous 15NH3 between 510 and 3040 cm−1 was recorded with a resolution of 0.06 cm−1. The ν2, 2ν2, 3ν2, ν4, and ν2 + ν4 bands were measured and analyzed on the basis of the vibration-rotation Hamiltonian developed by V. Špirko, J. M. R. Stone, and D. Papoušek (J. Mol. Spectrosc. 60, 159–178 (1976)). A set of effective molecular parameters for the ν2 = 1, 2, 3 states was derived, which reproduced the transition frequencies within the accuracy of the experimental measurements. For ν4 and ν2 + ν4 bands the standard deviation of the calculated spectrum is about four times larger than the measurements accuracy: a similar result was found for ν4 in 14NH3 by Š. Urban et al. (J. Mol. Spectrosc. 79, 455–495 (1980)). This result suggests that the present treatment takes into account only the most significant part of the rovibration interaction in the doubly degenerate vibrational states of ammonia.

The kinetics of the 2π+2π photodimerisation reactions of single-crystalline derivatives of trans-cinnamic acid: a study by infrared microspectroscopy

The kinetics of the photodimerisation reactions of the 2- and 4-β-halogeno-derivatives of trans-cinnamic acid (where the halogen is fluorine, chlorine or bromine) have been investigated by infrared microspectroscopy. It is found that none of the reactions proceed to 100% yield. This is in line with a reaction mechanism developed by Wernick and his co-workers that postulates the formation of isolated monomers within the solid, which cannot react. β-4-Bromo and β-4-chloro-trans-cinnamic acids show approximately first order kinetics, although in both cases the reaction accelerates somewhat as it proceeds. First order kinetics is explained in terms of a reaction between one excited- and one ground-state monomer molecule, while the acceleration of the reaction implies that it is promoted as defects are formed within the crystal. By contrast β-2-chloro-trans-cinnamic acid shows a strongly accelerating reaction which models closely to the contracting cube equation. β-2-Fluoro- and β-4-fluoro-trans-cinnamic acids show a close match to first order kinetics. The 4-fluoro-derivative, however, shows a reaction that proceeds via a structural intermediate. The difference in behaviour between the 2-fluoro- and 4-fluoro-derivative may be due to different C–HF hydrogen bonds observed within these single-crystalline starting materials.

Activation of pro-survival Akt and ERK1/2 signalling pathways underlie the anti-apoptotic effects of flavanones in cortical neurons

There is growing interest in the potential beneficial effects of flavonoids in the aging and diseased brain. We have investigated the potential of the flavanone hesperetin and two of its metabolites, hesperetin-7-O-beta-D-glucuronide and 5-nitro-hesperetin, to inhibit oxidative stress-induced neuronal apoptosis. Exposure of cortical neurons to hydrogen peroxide led to the activation of apoptosis signal-regulating kinase 1 via its de-phosphorylation at Ser963, the phosphorylation of c-jun N-terminal kinase and c-Jun (Ser73) and the activation of caspase 3 and caspase 9. Whilst hesperetin glucuronide failed to exert protection, both hesperetin and 5-nitro-hesperetin were effective at preventing neuronal apoptosis via a mechanism involving the activation/phosphorylation of both Akt/protein kinase B and extracellular signal-regulated kinase 1 and 2 (ERK1/2). Protection against oxidative injury and the activation of Akt and ERK1/2 followed a bell-shaped response and was most apparent at 100 nmol/L concentrations. The activation of ERK1/2 and Akt by flavanones led to the inhibition of the pro-apoptotic proteins, apoptosis signal-regulating kinase 1, by phosphorylation at Ser83 and Bad, by phosphorylation at both Ser136 and Ser112 and to the inhibition of peroxide-induced caspase 9 and caspase 3 activation. Thus, flavanones may protect neurons against oxidative insults via the modulation of neuronal apoptotic machinery.

The impact of North Atlantic sea surface temperature errors on the simulation of North Atlantic European region climate

Current state-of-the-art climate models fail to capture accurately the path of the Gulf Stream and North Atlantic Current. This leads to a warm bias near the North American coast, where the modelled Gulf Stream separates from the coast further north, and a cold anomaly to the east of the Grand Banks of Newfoundland, where the North Atlantic Current remains too zonal in this region. Using an atmosphere-only model forced with the sea surface temperature (SST) biases in the North Atlantic, we consider the impact they have on the mean state and the variability in the North Atlantic European region in winter. Our results show that the SST errors produce a mean sea-level pressure response that is similar in magnitude and pattern to the atmospheric circulation errors in the coupled climate model. The work also suggests that errors in the coupled model storm tracks and North Atlantic Oscillation, compared to reanalysis data, can also be explained partly by these SST errors. Our results suggest that both the error in the Gulf Stream separation location and the path of the North Atlantic Current around the Grand Banks play important roles in affecting the atmospheric circulation. Reducing these coupled model errors could improve significantly the representation of the large-scale atmospheric circulation of the North Atlantic and European region.

Development of warm SST errors in the southern tropical Atlantic in CMIP5 decadal hindcasts

SST errors in the tropical Atlantic are large and systematic in current coupled general-circulation models. We analyse the growth of these errors in the region of the south-eastern tropical Atlantic in initialised decadal hindcasts integrations for three of the models participating in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project 5. A variety of causes for the initial bias development are identified, but a crucial involvement is found, in all cases considered, of ocean-atmosphere coupling for their maintenance. These involve an oceanic “bridge” between the Equator and the Benguela-Angola coastal seas which communicates sub-surface ocean anomalies and constitutes a coupling between SSTs in the south-eastern tropical Atlantic and the winds over the Equator. The resulting coupling between SSTs, winds and precipitation represents a positive feedback for warm SST errors in the south-eastern tropical Atlantic.

The ocean’s role in setting the mean position of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone

Through study of observations and coupled climate simulations, it is argued that the mean position of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) north of the equator is a consequence of a northwards heat transport across the equator by ocean circulation. Observations suggest that the hemispheric net radiative forcing of climate at the top of the atmosphere is almost perfectly symmetric about the equator, and so the total (atmosphere plus ocean) heat transport across the equator is small (order 0.2 PW northwards). Due to the Atlantic ocean’s meridional overturning circulation, however, the ocean carries significantly more heat northwards across the equator (order 0.4 PW) than does the coupled system. There are two primary consequences. First, atmospheric heat transport is southwards across the equator to compensate (0.2 PW southwards), resulting in the ITCZ being displaced north of the equator. Second, the atmosphere, and indeed the ocean, is slightly warmer (by perhaps 2 °C) in the northern hemisphere than in the southern hemisphere. This leads to the northern hemisphere emitting slightly more outgoing longwave radiation than the southern hemisphere by virtue of its relative warmth, supporting the small northward heat transport by the coupled system across the equator. To conclude, the coupled nature of the problem is illustrated through study of atmosphere–ocean–ice simulations in the idealized setting of an aquaplanet, resolving the key processes at work.

Projected impacts on heat-related mortality from changes in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change

The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the importance of changing temperature variability with climate change in assessments of future heat-related mortality. Previous studies have only considered changes in the mean temperature. Here we present estimates of heat-related mortality resulting from climate change for six cities: Boston, Budapest, Dallas, Lisbon, London and Sydney. They are based on climate change scenarios for the 2080s (2070-2099) and the temperature-mortality (t-m) models constructed and validated in Gosling et al. (2007). We propose a novel methodology for assessing the impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality that considers both changes in the mean and variability of the temperature distribution.

Excess open solar magnetic flux from satellite data: 2. A survey of kinematic effects

We investigate the “flux excess” effect, whereby open solar flux estimates from spacecraft increase with increasing heliocentric distance. We analyze the kinematic effect on these open solar flux estimates of large-scale longitudinal structure in the solar wind flow, with particular emphasis on correcting estimates made using data from near-Earth satellites. We show that scatter, but no net bias, is introduced by the kinematic “bunching effect” on sampling and that this is true for both compression and rarefaction regions. The observed flux excesses, as a function of heliocentric distance, are shown to be consistent with open solar flux estimates from solar magnetograms made using the potential field source surface method and are well explained by the kinematic effect of solar wind speed variations on the frozen-in heliospheric field. Applying this kinematic correction to the Omni-2 interplanetary data set shows that the open solar flux at solar minimum fell from an annual mean of 3.82 × 1016 Wb in 1987 to close to half that value (1.98 × 1016 Wb) in 2007, making the fall in the minimum value over the last two solar cycles considerably faster than the rise inferred from geomagnetic activity observations over four solar cycles in the first half of the 20th century.

The assignment of ν2 and ν4 of SO3

Three experiments have been performed to resolve an uncertainty in the assignment of ν2 and ν4 for SO3: (i) the gas phase Raman spectrum has been measured; (ii) the infrared active combination band ν3 + ν4 has been measured; (iii) a band contour calculation has been performed taking account of the ℓ-type resonance in ν4 and a strong Coriolis resonance between ν2 and ν4. These experiments establish beyond any doubt that ν2 lies at about 497.5 cm−1 and ν4 lies at about 530.2 cm−1. The contour calculation also shows that the Coriolis resonance gives rise to a positive intensity perturbation.